Monday Morning Mehta 5/30/06

Edition # 164
May 29, 2006

Phils/MLB

Phillies are 3-4 since you last read about them and plenty of questions and concerns still remain about the Phillies. They finish off the homestand with 2 games versus a poor Nationals team, then hit the road for 11 games which starts on the West Coast in LA.

- Losing 2 out of 3 in New York was the real painful part of the week. On paper, it's not bad losing those games. But when you don't face Pedro or Glavine, and lose a game to somebody named Alay Solar, it's not pretty bad.

- Jon Lieber goes on the D.L. with some sort of lame groin or leg injury. Good. He needed to be benched for a few starts anyway. He's been an absolute disgrace this year, with one good start.

- I never thought I'd be happy to see Mike Lieberthal play again. For weeks I've actually wanted him back. And David Bell has been surprisingly adequate this year. My new guy to pick on was Lieber, now he's hurt. I guess Abraham Nunez is the new guy I'm going to pick on. Him and Ryan Franklin.

- This seems like a repeat of every single Jimmy Rollins year in his career. Plays well for stretches and completely disappears for weeks at a time. Here comes his hot streak.

- The Phils play the Dodgers this weekend, guess who comes off the DL and will immediately step back into the closer's role on Thursday? Yep, Eric Gagne. Why do I get the feeling he'll dominate right away?

- Why doesn't Aaron Fultz pitch in more key spots? He's earned more than a mop up role.

- There's only so many times I can talk about the same things over and over again with the Phils. I've done it for 4 years running. Time to go around the league....

Around the League

- An interesting series in Detroit this week as the first place Tigers face the Yankees. The Tigers have feasted on the bottom of the AL Central, so it will be interesting to see what they do against a some of the better teams in the league whom they'll face the next 2 weeks (13 games vs. Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox and Blue Jays). Even a .500 record would be impressive. I think they'll need some more offense to compete in the long haul.

- What's happening with the Braves bullpen is comical right now. Chris Reitsma just can't do anything right and has been unofficially officially demoted as the closer. A bullpen by committee looks to be in order with Ken Ray being the first choice lately.

- A few weeks back I stated Albert Pujols will likely cool off and slow down from his 80 home run pace. I retract that statement and beg the court for mercy. 80 home runs might be light for this guy. He's even mentally screwed up Brad Lidge which should count for extra credit points.

- I've really had enough of hearing about Roger Clemens from the media. Every one wants to be "the first" to break where he's going, where's he leaning, blah blah blah. Just let the guy makes his decision and tell me when it's official. I'm guessing Boston.

- Oh, by the way, Barry Bonds passed Babe Ruth for 2nd on the All-time home run leaders. It's really a shame what has become of this. I still blame Bud Selig for this mess. Human growth and steroids have only been illegal in baseball for a season and 2 months, which is an absolute disgrace considering 'everybody' is saying they've known this has been going on since the late 80's/early 90's. Either Bonds passing a legend in Ruth should be honored and celebrated like a tremendous, once in a lifetime achievement, or there should be an asterisk put next to it. On the fence is where Selig was ten years ago, and where he still sits.

NBA - Derreck Sura

Dallas v Phoenix - Mavericks lead 2-1. Winning this series was going to be an uphill battle for the Suns at full strength, but after losing Raja Bell to a partially torn left calf muscle in game one, it's pretty much mission impossible now. Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni is still only playing seven guys. The problem that creates is by moving Leandro Barbosa into the stating lineup the Suns lose their main energy guy and top scorer off the bench. It's hard for me to believe that a team could be in the NBA Finals with a bench that consists solely of James Jones and Eddie House. Yikes!

You probably already know this, but Dallas is 23-0 this year (4-0 in the playoffs) when Josh Howard scores 20 or more points, and Josh is averaging 19 points per game in this series. The problem for Phoenix is that Shawn Marion can only guard one guy, either Howard or Dirk Nowitzki. Whichever one the Matrix is not defending seems to go on a scoring binge almost immediately. I'm not sure what that says about Tim Thomas and Boris Diaw's defensive ability, but it can't be good.

On the flip side, Mavs' coach Avery Johnson made a key defensive adjustment after game one. The Little General put DeSagana Diop on Diaw for stretches in game two, and unbelievably it has been thee adjustment of the series so far (just like inserting Devin Harris into the starting lineup against San Antonio). Boris has been hurting Dallas all series with his versatility, to the tune of 26.3 points on 53.2% shooting. Diop has proved to have just enough foot speed to stay in front of Diaw. That, combined with DeSagana's length, has kept Boris more in check.

The Suns have come back off the mat multiple times already in this post season, but it's starting to look like they have run out of miracles to me. Of course, anything is possible with a team that shoots 3's like Phoenix does, but if the Mavs are able to win game four, this series is over in five.

Miami v Detroit - Heat lead 3-1. Turn out the lights, the party's over. What happened to that famous Piston chemistry in the face of adversity? To me, it looks for all the world like Flip Saunders lost control of his team. They just look so unprepared out there at times. It also seems like Detroit has already packed it in because the player's body language on the court is just awful. Whatever the case may be, the fallout in Motown is going to be very interesting to follow.

Pistons' President Joe Dumars is in a very tough situation now. Does he resign Ben Wallace to big time contract extension this summer? Does he redo Chauncey Billups' deal before Chaunc opts of his contract after next season? The answers to these questions were no brainers around mid-season, but suddenly the future isn't as rosy in Detroit. If the team can't win it all now, that doesn't bode well for the future. The Pistons are in danger of becoming an old capped out team with little or no roster flexibility if Dumars wraps this entire squad up for the next three to four seasons. In some respects, the dye is already set in Detroit. When Joe D traded away Darko Milicic he pretty much made his bed, and the time to lay in it is rapidly approaching.

Dwyane Wade has been phenomenal this series. He's averaging 30.8 points, 6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2 steals. If all that wasn't enough, he also shooting 83% from the free throw line and an astonishing 69.5% (Wow!) from the field. That's right, D Wade is shooting almost 70% after four games against the vaunted Piston D. That's not all though. Miami is shooting 52.5% from the floor as a team. That has to be more then just hot shooting. The explanation? Detroit's defense has been exposed, plain and simple.

I guess it's still possible that the Pistons come back, but it seems highly unlikely that they could win three straight games with the way they are playing right now. The reality is that this series is all but over. After a brilliant regular season, and almost winning back to back titles last year, Detroit's legacy is now no more then that of a one hit wonder. I mean, they will still be an upper echelon team as long as this current group is together, but the days of being legitimate contenders for the crown seem to be at an end.

NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- This edition of NHL Week In Review is dedicated to actor Paul Gleason who passed away
yesterday. Gleason had an unbelievable run of great roles playing a soldier in "The Great Santini", a cop in "Fort Apache : The Bronx", an executive in "Arthur", Clarence Beeks in "Trading Places", he was in not one but TWO episodes of "Miami Vice", he played the greedy coach in "Johnny B. Goode", a cop in "Die Hard", he was in "Revenge of the Nerds IV : Nerds In Love", a proffesor in "Van Wilder", he was in the classic "Seinfeld" episode were George determines that his instincts are always wrong so he starts doing the direct opposite of what he thinks is right, and of course Gleason played Principal Vernon in "The Breakfast Club". That's a cinematic murder's row if I ever saw one, definitely a first ballot Hall of Fame career.

- NBC's new slogan for the Stanley Cup Finals is "No one remembers who came in second" but I think in this case no one will remember who came in first as well. The absolute worst nightmare scenario is brewing for the NHL, NBC, and OLN. Although it's not official just yet it looks like the Stanley Cup will be fought for by the smallest city in North America that is home to a sports franchise (Edmonton, Alberta) and a city were more residents can probably name the assistant to the assistant to Kasey Kahne's crew chief then can name a member of their hockey team (Raleigh, NC). I'm sure the Hurricanes will sell their games out in a total jump on the bandwagon sort of way, like the way St. Joe's basketball games were selling out a few years ago when they were good, but in reality what hockey was dying for coming off the layoff was a big market team like the Flyers, Red Wings, Bruins, Kings, or my hated Rangers to make a run at the Cup. Or even a big market Canadian team like the Habs or Leafs would have been way better. The only worse scenario I could possibly dream of for the NHL would be Edmonton vs. the Senators in the Cup finals.

I know that I may be prematurely writing off the Sabres but I watched the last game and it was an overtime slug to the gut loss were they blew three leads including 3 - 1 in the second period. I can't see the Sabres coming back and winning tonight.

Another problem with this match up is there is nothing for the NHL marketing department to grasp on to. I mean they may be able to promote Rod Brind'Amour going for his first Cup but is Rod Brind'Amour such a dynamic personality that it'll make you turn on the series? I mean check out the series for a long time, not just check out the score. I didn't think so.

- So the Oilers finally dispatched the Ducks 4 games to 1 with Oiler coach Craig MacTavish just embarrassing Duck coach Randy Carlyle. If there is one thing MacTavish knows it's defense and he had the Ducks baffled by his man to man defense during power plays. And to think MacTavish's brash, if you suck I'll let you know it, style almost cost him his job a few years ago. Now the guy looks like a genius. Of course Michael Peca and Chris Pronger waking up from their mutual season long comas to have big playoff series' always helps a coach look like a genius too.

- Think about this...Ray Shero, the son of late Flyers coach Fred Shero, was offered the general manager job at both the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Boston Bruins. He chose to work for the Penguins. What does that tell you about the pathetic state of affairs in Beantown that a guy would rather work for the losingest franchise in hockey over the last 5 seasons then work for chronically cheap, fan base killing Bruins' owner Jeremy Jacobs? The Bruins used to be a proud, always competitive, original six franchise....now they're a joke.

- Two quick Phillies questions...1.) Is Washington Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson Larry Bowa's nephew? Because I gotta tell you the Phillies announcers only mentioned it 17,512 times since he entered the league and I'm still not sure. So is it true? And 2.) I want the Elias Sports Bureau to look this up, I want them to find the team that has cracked the most smiles and had the most guffaw laughs while on the bench or in the field while said person's team was losing at the time. I'll bet the 2006 Phillies have crushed their own record from 2005 and 2004 in that category.

- I have a message for "Hockey Night in Canada" analyst Kelly Hrudey...just shut up!!! Just do us all of us a favor and shut your mouth!! In a Howard Eskin-esque, let me just say crap that nobody with .0007% of a brain could possibly believe way, Hrudey said that hockey should eliminate the post playoff series hand shake between teams. Hrudey's supposed rationale is that the players never said anything nice to him after a hard fought playoff series. Kelly, I know you just said that to generate some headlines and it worked and I'm following suit like the sheep that I am but don't dip into the trough and become a bitter Billy Packer level moron.

- Quick Barbaro note. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that nobody beside me saw the 7th race at Monmouth last Saturday. Basically what happened was the horses were in the starting gate and the 4 horse burst through his gate before the race started a la Barbaro. Now take notice what happened next; the outriders caught the horse, the rest of the horses were taken out of the starting gate, a vet was summoned, he looked over the horse and determined that the horse may not be 100% healthy, scratched him, and the race went off without a hitch. The question is "why didn't they follow that protocol in the Preakness if that's the way they do it in a low level race at Monmouth?" The answer is, I'm not sure, but it's dirty. If I had to guess I'd say that the race was late to begin with, I'm sure NBC was concerned about how the whole thing was taking forever, and to waste another 15 minutes taking the other horses out of the gate, getting a vet etc., and NBC may have had a real programming problem on their hands. Why else wouldn't the most basic procedures be followed? So with no vet to look at Barbaro there's only one person with the authority to scratch the horse at that point, jockey Edgar Prado. He can, and I've seen it happen numerous times, jump off the horse and just refuse to ride him if he thinks there's an issue. Obviously Prado didn't do that but trust me, if he thought Barbaro was hurt he would have jumped off him if for no other reason then to make sure he didn't get killed. And please, it's not about money with the jockey because those guys aren't stupid. I'll bet Prado got a flat rate long before that race began. In closing, no matter who is to blame, that was an awful job by all considered at Pimlico that day.

Monday Morning Mehta 5/22/06

Edition # 163
May 22, 2006

***********UPDATED BASKETBALL PREVIEWS*****************

Phils/MLB

After the Phillies went 5-1 last week and cruising along, they pull a typical Phillies and lose 5 in a row to lose all of the positive press they'd earned and stumble to a 1-5 week. Hence, I'm miserable enough to write about them today.

- For all 4 people that actually reads my garbage, "It's all about pitching" has always been my mantra (I just like using that word really). Well, I decided to take a more statistical look at that this week. (This has been an argument Sammy has been having with Jody Mac on 950AM so listen for more on this today).

Anyway, I said in last years Phillies post mortem some major pearls of wisdom: "An 8 inning performance rests your bullpen during a victory. The Phillies do not have an 8 inning pitcher and just about every victory required using a setup man like Madson or Urbina. In the end, that costs them too many W's."

So I decided to put some stats to that. The internet is great, 15-30 minutes of research of you have your answers. Here's a breakdown of teams that are in contention, and the number of times their starting pitcher has gone 8 or more innings.

White Sox - 10 (including amazingly, every starter has at least one game of 8+ innings)
Reds - 9
Cards - 7
Astros - 6
Yanks - 5
Tigers - 5
D'Backs - 5
Padres - 4
Red Sox - 3
Phils - 2
Mets - 1

I'm not naive enough to think pitchers should go 9 innings in great outings. Those days are over. A great outing these days is 8 innings. That is being very fair I think. The Phillies are getting blown out by teams so far this year. Some of the teams will keep up their pace (White Sox, Cards, Astros) and hence they'll stay in contention all year and be a good team. The Phillies, will as usual, rely on their bullpen way too much and it'll be the reason they won't consistently win all year.

If you're wondering how the Mets are ahead of the Phillies with only one 8 inning performance, they have Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman who have been absolutely lights out so far this year. If those two keep it up, they'll be fine. But not many teams (in fact very few, possibly the Padres are the other team) have that luxury of a great, almost flawless 7th and 8th inning guys (the Phils certainly don't).

Now, this isn't a knock on Brett Myers or even Cole Hamels. Both have the long term ability to be very good 8 inning pitchers. But until they get to that point, the Phillies will be a 86 win team, just short of the playoffs every year.

I'm also not saying this is the end all be all of stats. Stats can be deceiving at many times. But it clearly indicates where the Phillies are lagging.

Wow. That was Pulitzer material...

Around the League

Gotta start talking Detroit Tigers when we talk AL. The first place Tigers managed by Phillies throwaway Jim Leyland are tearing up the AL. And they have great young pitching in Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander to go along with veteran Kenny Rogers.

This isn't a joke or punch line anymore. The Mets have been continually BLASTED and mocked for trading a 4th starter at best in Victor Zambrano for young phenom Scott Kazmir. It would be like if the Phillies traded Cole Hamels for Sidney Ponson. Well, anyway, Kazmir who is a mere 22 years old, is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.39 and is 4 behind the major league lead in strikeouts. He was very wild last year (think young Randy Johnson except a 10 inches shorter), but has really found his control this year. You probably won't see the guy pitch a whole game unless you have the baseball package, but trust me when I tell you the guy's got Hall of Fame stuff. And you know I never exaggerate.

I think if you beat the Cubs it should count as 1/2 of a win. They are awful. Of course the Phillies will probably play them when Derreck Lee & Mark Prior return and they're playing half decent again.

Frank, where's your comments been the last few weeks? Mets suck, the Raiders will win 5 games next year and the Blues stink. How's that?

Philly Phaf always gives me a hard time when I don't mention horse racing, so I will. An awful scene at the Preakness with Barbaro going down. Hopefully the horse will be OK but this goes to show you shouldn't slap the Philly tag on anybody/anything. It's just a jinx. Bernardini wins the 2nd leg of the triple crown and once again there will be no triple crown winner. Three weeks to the Belmont.

All 5 teams in the NL West are above .500. How did this happen? 12 NL teams are .500 or above. The NL wildcard is going to be nuts this year. I think everybody just takes turns beating on Wash, Fla, Cubs and Pirates. The Pirates should be lucky to win 50 games this year. Of course the Phils lost 2 outta three to them...

Speaking of sucky, the Royals are 10-31. That's a pace to win 40 games.

While Atlanta hasn't exactly played stiff competition, they are starting to play better baseball.
Chris Reitsma and their pen is still a major problem though.

Cool fight this weekend between AJ Pierzynski and Michael Barrett. Barrett was admittedly wrong for doing what he did but it's nice to see some life out of a struggling team.

NBA - Derreck Sura

GAME 7 PREVIEWS

Dallas v San Antonio - If not for Jason Terry's momentary lapse of reason in game 5, the Mavericks probably would have moved on already. As you would expect in a series this close, the team statistics are basically even across the board. The Spurs managed to successfully level off the differential in free throw attempts and makes over the last three games. Dallas is still out rebounding SA by 4.7 rebounds per game (40.7 to 36 rpg), but the Spurs have pulled ahead by a slim margin in overall shooting percentage (47.5% to 45.9%).

For the Mavs to come out on top tonight they must be more aggressive driving the ball to the hoop and try to get SA's big men in foul trouble. It's also very important that Dallas keeps the tempo of the game where they like it. The best way for the Mavs to accomplish this is by going on a run early in the game. It doesn't matter if it comes via fast break points or a string of quick jumpers that fall. The most important thing for them is to put pressure on the Spurs and maintain it throughout the game.

SA coach Gregg Popovich kept switching his lineups around until he found one that worked in
game 5. Replacing one of their usual starting centers with Michael Finley has allowed the Spurs to match Dallas' versatility. SA's starting lineup and rotation now resembles Phoenix's from a year ago with Tim Duncan playing the Amare Stoudemire role as lone big man. This has negated the Mavs quickness advantage on the perimeter, hence allowing the Spurs to dictate the pace of the game.

If Dirk Nowitzki plays with same fire he displayed in game 6, Dallas will surely have a chance to win. However, the Mavs are going to need at least one (either Terry or Josh Howard), and possibly two (one of Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, Marquis Daniels or Keith Van Horn), other players to step and have big games if they are going to get over the hump. If SA's gets any production at all from their bench (Brent Barry, Robert Horry & Nick Van Exel), I really like their chances.

As is always the case in game 7's, the home team has a clear advantage. I also don't know if everyone in Dallas' rotation is mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of a game 7 on the road. Being that I picked the Spurs back in October, I see no reason to waver now.
Phoenix v Clippers - As far as analysis of this series goes, I really don't have much new to say. Los Angeles is still out rebounding the Suns by 13.7 a game (50.5 to 36.8 rpg) and 4.4 on the offensive glass (13.2 to 8.8 rpg). The Clips are also still shooting a much better percentage from the field (50.7% to 45.4%). The only reasons Phoenix is still alive (besides Mike Dunleavy's coaching) is because they are making 5.1 more 3-pointers per game (10.3 to 5.2 3pm) and turning it over less (10 to 14.2 topg) then the Clips are.

The story is the same as ever for LA: Control the tempo by playing patient half court offense. One way to assure this happens is by making certain that Elton Brand touches the ball in every single half court set. That doesn't mean he has to shoot every time, or create the shot for someone else, but he has to at least see the ball. The Suns have yet to show the ability to even slow Brand down (30 ppg, 10.7 rpg & 58.5% shooting), so when EB gets the ball on the block it forces the entire Phoenix defense to react. I can not stress enough how much easier that makes it for the other Clips to score.

Suns' coach Mike D'Antoni has a big decision to make in game 7. Does he play Kurt Thomas in the biggest game of the year even though Thomas has not seen any action in three full months? If he does decide to play him, how much and in which situations? I think it's a no brainer for D'Antoni, he has to play him. I say put Kurt on Elton in the second quarter for a spell and see how it goes. If KT looks like he's in the flow, then when Mike D need to, he can use Thomas to guard Brand in the second half until Kurt fouls out. Phoenix does not need KT's offense, but his defense and rebounding could make all the difference in the world.

I know I picked LA to win the series in six before it started, but I'm leaning toward the Suns in game 7 for two reasons. The first is obviously that they are playing at home. The energy of their crowd is certainly going to give them some more pep in their step. The second is that they will be coming off three full days of rest tonight. That should be more then enough time for their tired legs to recharge, thus giving them a little more lift on their long distance shooting. That just might be too much for this group of Clips to overcome in their first post season together.
You can call this sour grapes, being a homer or whatever, but if Phil Jackson was coaching this LA team, the series would be over already.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

Detroit v Miami - It's only fitting that the two best teams in the Conference all season long play each other for the right to represent the East in the Finals. While the Pistons were busy showing some weaknesses in the last round, the Heat were sitting at home reflecting on how well they came together in beating New Jersey. That's why all of a sudden this series is looking far more interesting then it was two weeks ago.

For Miami, all of President/coach Pat Riley's off season moves were made with Detroit in mind. He wanted another player that could get his own shot. Enter Antoine Walker. He wanted more quickness and play making in the back court. Enter Jason Williams. Finally, he wanted a few more tough minded defenders. Enter James Posey and Gary Payton. Riles was looking like a fool for most of the season after breaking up a team that was "125 seconds" away from a spot in the Finals last year. Right now? Not so much. Toine has filled the role of third option to a tee in these playoffs. But what really worked great for the Heat against the Nets was when Riley went with the GP, Dwyane Wade, Posey, Udonis Haslem and Alonzo Mourning unit to close games. Those five played fantastic defense down the stretch, and Miami is going to need more of the same from that group to get by the Pistons.

Detroit certainly showed some chinks in their armor against Cleveland. The main issue was that the Pistons reverted to their old ways offensively. Gone was the free flowing push it up offense that coach Flip Saunders seemed to bring with him upon his arrival. Back was the absolutely brutal to watch, stand around, run the shot clock down and heave up a brick offense of the Larry Brown era. There's an understandable explanation, as well as some under the radar concerns. Rasheed Wallace's injured right ankle has clearly affected his play. Being that Sheed is their most versatile player on offense, it's easy to see how that could disrupt Detroit's flow. On to my theories now. Number one, something just isn't right with Chauncey Billups. He says he's not injured, but his 3-point shooting percentage is down (37.3% from 43.3%) and so is his "Mr. Big Shot" confidence. Next, and my personal favorite, is that the pressure of being the best team all season long is starting to get to them. So much so that at points against the Cavaliers they almost seemed to be splitting apart chemistry wise to me. This is something to keep a close eye on against the Heat.

Another situation to watch closely is the coaching battle. Flip and Pat have both had to deal with major expectations all year, and the weight of those expectations could very well get to them in this series. You can just see it in their faces on the sideline that these guys are griping it to tight. The games are all probably going to be close too, so designing the right plays and making the proper substitutions in crunch time will be huge. I also get the feeling from both Saunders and Riley that they'd rather be poked in the eye with a sharp stick then be second guessed by the media. Which makes the post game press conferences must see NBATV for me.

I hate to say that a series between two clubs as good as these hinges on one player, but after seeing what LeBron James did to the Pistons, I have no choice. D Wade averaged 28 points on 51.2% shooting to go along with 7 assists and 6.5 rebound in his four game against Detroit this season. Dwyane needs to try and assert himself early in every game offensively. This will keep the Pistons' defense off balance and not allow them to focus all of their attention on Shaq. From Detroit's perspective, they must find a way to continue the overall defensive form they displayed in the second half of game 7 against Cleveland.

Key match up - Ben Wallace & Shaquille O'Neal. Ah, the annual free throw brick layer convention. If any of you out there know of a more overrated player then Big Ben, please post it in the comments sections below. Wallace has been down right awful in these playoffs, averaging 4 points while shooting 38% from the floor and 23.8% from the line (makes Shaq's 39.5% look robust). Yet somehow he's 2nd team All-NBA? Whatever. It's time for Mr. Defensive Player of the Year to earn his new contract by doing an admirable job on Mr. O'Neal. As for the Diesel, he's going to have to play smart on offense foul wise because the referee's have definitely altered the way they officiate the Big Fella. Shaq has to also be very efficient on offense. What I mean by that is he has to choose his spots to score while maintaining a healthy balance of keeping his teammates involved.

Prediction - Both of these clubs have a tendency to play lazy basketball, which could lead to a less then entertaining series for viewers. Even though Miami is the deeper team, and I picked them back in October, I have to go with the Pistons. Detroit will find a way to ugly it up just enough to where their chemistry together combined with home court will carry them to the promised land. Pistons in 7.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE----DERRECK SURA

- My year and a half undefeated streak of predicting playoff series' came to screeching halt at 25 after I went 2-2 in this year's second round.


San Antonio had game 7 in hand until Manu Ginobili's ridiculous foul on Dirk Nowitzki with :21 seconds left in regulation. Manu giveth (the 3 with :32 seconds to go) and Manu taketh away (said foul and missed open lay up to end regulation).


Although it may have seemed that way, the Clippers really didn't lose their series in game 7. They lost it in game 5 when coach Mike Dunleavy inexplicably inserted Daniel Ewing into the game with :03 seconds left in the first overtime. Never mind that Ewing is a rookie that had not played all game long, but Los Angeles also had a foul to give before Raja Bell hit that equalizing 3. I don't think Dunleavy could have possibly handled that situation any worse if he tried to.


All of my grousing aside, this has easily been the best playoffs that I can remember in recent years. So far, that is. I can only hope that the next two rounds provide the same high quality of play and drama that the previous two rounds did.


WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL


Phoenix v Dallas - If you enjoy run and gun ball, then this is the series for you. Fast paced offense with little or no defense should be the norm here. Basically, the exact opposite of the East.


The Mavericks have an obvious depth advantage, but I actually think the Suns have a better starting five for this style of play. That's why the first question that needs to be answered is will Dallas coach Avery Johnson attempt to out run Phoenix in hopes that the Mavs superior depth will eventually wear down the Suns. Since there is only one day off in between each game, and knowing how Steve Nash was dragging against the Clips toward the end, that theory would seem to hold more water. However, Phoenix would like nothing better then for Dallas to try and beat them at their style. It's a dangerous line for Avery to walk, but if any team has the weapons to do it, it's the Mavs.


Dallas is the superior defensive team when they put their minds to it. So my advice to them would to focus on that end of the court, and let the scoring take care of itself. The Suns lack of rebounding was well documented by me last round, and since the Mavs just finished off out rebounding the Spurs, I give the advantage to Dallas in that area too. It's so easy to write Phoenix off on paper, but if they've shown anything thus far, it's that they are ultra-resilient and never to be counted out. They just keep running and shooting 3's and never lose faith in that game plan.


Look for the Mavs to have a possible let down in game 1. Then, depending on what style they choose to play (fast or slow), Avery will adjust accordingly. To me, that's the key. Avery just has so many more options then Suns' coach Mike D'Antoni, that it's only a matter of time before the 'Lil General finds the right combination. When he does, it will be lights out for Phoenix. No matter how long this series lasts, it promises to be wildly entertaining from start to finish.


Key match up - Shawn Marion & Josh Howard. I'm sure these two will be cross matching all over the place as the hot hand dictates, so it's possible that we hardly see them guard each other at all. They both do so many of the little things for their teams though, that it will be interesting to see who can do more. Marion gets all the pub, but as many of you out there know, Howard is one of my favorite players in the league. Which is why if they do wind up defending each other the majority of the time, I can't wait to see who gets the better of this duel.


Prediction - I know better then to overlook the Suns at this point, but even with Kurt Thomas back, I just don't think Phoenix has enough left in their tank to out gun Dallas. As long as the Mavs play some semblance of defense, they should be fine. Dallas in 6.


NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- This is how you can tell if Flyer GM Bobby Clarke understands the new NHL or if he is still stuck with his head up his.....well, in a place where a head shouldn't be. 36 year old Jeremy Roenick had an ineffective, injury riddled season for the Kings in 2005 - 2006. He started out like gang busters but ended the year with a paltry 22 points in just 58 games. Roenick is about to become an unrestricted free agent and the Kings have all but shown him the door. If Bobby Clarke ignores this and lets Roenick go and rest his weary bones in some other team's whirlpool then he gets it. If Clarke signs Roenick then it's hopeless and the Flyers will never win a Cup with him in command. We should have an answer by August 1st.

- "The Hockey News" came out with their annual NHL draft preview and it was notable for 2 reasons. First of all, the draftees ready to hit the NHL were all born in 1987 which I found to be incredibly depressing. And second, the number 1 and number 2 prospects are both Americans and the number 5 ranked prospect is Swedish and the number 6 prospect is also American. So depending on what a teams needs it could possibly be the 4th or 5th pick in the draft before a Canadian player is taken. That would be incredible.

- I know everyone is still reeling from seeing Phillie second baseman Chase Utley's plain Jane, I think I could get her, girlfriend on Comcast last week but there's still hockey to be discussed. Come on Chase, you can do better then that, you're a professional athlete for crying out loud!! At any rate the Sabres beat the Canes last Saturday 3 - 2. It wasn't the up and down affair I expected but it was the usual penalty laddened game that a lot of NHL games have become. And by the way, Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller is a stud. And word on the street was that he was pissed that he didn't get picked for the American Olympic team. I think the kid may have had a point.

- Talk about suffering for your art, I stayed up last night to watch game 2 of the western conference finals so I could write about it here. I was so tired I could barely keep my eyes open and on top of it the game was so boring. By the way, Edmonton won the game 3 - 1 and lead the series 2 games to 0. Both games in the series have been low scoring yawners, both ended 3 - 1 with an empty net goal. The players have been complaining about the ice in Anaheim so maybe that's the reason for the slow play, I don't know. All I know is both of these games were played primarily in the neutral zone, wasn't that supposed to stop when the new rules came around? Now the series moves to Edmonton, hopefully the excitement level will pick up once they get up north.

***Sopranos Alert***

- "You got fired from Blockbuster!?!? They got rhesus monkeys working there as managers!!" Another mediocre "Sopranos", I'll give it a B-. The Paris stuff just droned on and on and on. Every time I saw the show going to Paris I was switching to the Oilers/Ducks game and "Hogan Knows Best". It was good to see Vito finally get killed but I was secretly wishing that AJ would have been the one getting beaten to death in that hotel room. Sometimes when I'm watching "The Sopranos" I watch the clock because I don't want it to end, that hasn't happened in a while. One more to go before the season is over, then the last 8 episodes of the series and that will be that.

Monday Morning Mehta 5/15/06

Edition # 162
May 15, 2006

MMM has to send out an abbreviated version this morning due to some conflicts this morning. We'll possibly be back with the NBA and baseball later today or tomorrow. For now, read the "NHL" weekly....

EAST

Cleveland v Detroit - Pistons lead 2-1. The Cavaliers were able to ride the emotional boost of being without Larry Hughes to a game three victory. Maybe I should be giving Cleveland a little more of a chance here, but I'm not. Look for Detroit to win the next two games and breeze on into the Conference Finals.

There is something for Piston fans to be worried about though. In the last two games the Cavs have outscored Detroit 31-19 and 33-21 in the fourth quarter. That's a total of 64-40, and a disconcerting new trend. All season long the Pistons have managed to pull out numerous games where they have sleepwalked through the first three quarters only to turn it on in fourth. Which is exactly why this reversal of fortune needs to be watched closely.

Oh yeah, and LeBron James is awesome.

New Jersey v Miami - Heat lead 3-1. When Cliff Robinson was suspended for five games last Friday after violating the league's drug policy, the Nets were more or less finished. Uncle Cliffy's best days are certainly behind him, but that doesn't change the fact that he was NJ's sixth man and their most important bench player all year. Any team would struggle in the playoffs minus their sixth man, but it's more then just that. Much like the Denver situation with Kenyon Martin, the distraction itself is almost worse then the loss of production. To win in the post season you need everyone 100% focused on the task at hand. The Nets are only human so they had to lose their edge to some degree.

At this point Miami advancing is pretty much a forgone conclusion. However, it would not surprise me at all if it took them the full seven games to do so. I'm sure all the talk from the Heat players will be about finishing NJ off in South Beach and then resting up for Detroit. Actions always speak louder then words though, and if Miami isn't mentally prepared for the Nets' best effort tomorrow, there will be a game six in the Swamplands.

WEST

Dallas v San Antonio - Mavericks lead 2-1. Other then game two, this series has been competitive high quality NBA playoff basketball all around. Dallas has looked like the better club so far, but they still could have easily lost game three. The Mavs are not necessarily that much deeper then the Spurs, but Dallas' bench is younger and more athletic then SA's, and that is making a difference. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have looked like they are both slowed by their injuries to me, but maybe Dirk Nowitzki's freshly sprained right ankle will level the playing field in that regard.

When I look at the numbers in this series, the first thing that jumps out at me is that the Mavs have five players averaging double digit points, compared to only three for the Spurs. The rest of the statistics are pretty much even, except for a few. The biggest one in my mind is that Dallas is out rebounding SA by five per game (41.7 to 36.7 rpg). The next area to look at is free throw shooting. The Mavs are getting to the free throw line more (40.3 to 33 FTA) and making a higher percentage too (76.9% to 71.7%). What this adds up to is 7.3 more made free throws per game for Dallas. The Mavs are also shooting better from the 3-point line (36% to 27.8%), but neither team really depends on the long ball to carry them.

The Spurs can get more aggressive driving the ball to the hoop to balance out the difference in free throw attempts, but accuracy from the stripe has never been SA's strength. The rebound disparity is another matter all together though. In the past the Spurs have relied on guys like David Robinson, Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed to have Tim Duncan's back and do the dirty work. That has not been the case thus far in this series. Rasho has played 13 total minutes in two games, Nazr 15 in three and Fabricio Oberto 17 in two. It has become so bad that coach Gregg Popovich has resorted to starting Robert Horry in the middle. It would benefit SA big time if one of Nazr, Rasho or Oberto would step up and show some life.

I expect the rest of the games in this series to be close well fought affairs that are decided down the stretch. The more I watch, the more I think that Dallas finally has the Spurs' number. Then the game will tighten up, and suddenly the Mavs seem a little shaky to me. I still see this series going seven. Likewise, I still have to favor SA because the Spurs have proved time and again that they know how to win big games. No matter what ends up happening, it should be highly entertaining to watch.

Phoenix v Clippers - Tied 2-2. This series has featured competitive games, free flowing offense and has been my favorite to watch. There's no doubt in my mind that Los Angeles is the better team, but the Suns just do not have any quit in them. Elton Brand has been a monster so far averaging 29.3 points on 60.8% shooting. Phoenix has not shown the ability to stop Brand yet, so the Clips must be patient and get EB the ball in the spots where he likes it.

Chris Kaman is having an MRI today on his injured right shoulder. Kaman could not even lift his right arm yesterday, so I'm guessing the news won't be good. Losing Chris is a blow to LA, but it would hurt them much more if they were playing a conventional team. The Clips have enough depth that coach Mike Dunleavy can actually match up better with the Suns minus Kaman. To that end LA's x-factor has been Shaun Livingston. His numbers (8 points, 4.8 rebounds & 4.3 assists in 29 minutes) don't jump off the page at you, but his versatility filling in for the always gimpy Sam Cassell has given the Clips another dimension both offensively and defensively.
The story is the same as ever for Phoenix to advance. They need to run, run and run some more in order to be successful. The Suns are very tough to beat when they are dictating the tempo and making their 3-pointers, but they would give themselves a better chance when shots aren't falling for them if they improved in two areas. First, Phoenix has to try and at least stay respectable on the glass. The Suns have been getting out rebounded by 13.7 a game (49.5 to 35.8 rpg) so far in this series. I can understand them not emphasizing the boards, but it's hard to win consistently with that kind of deficiency. Next, Phoenix has to ratchet up their defensive intensity a notch or two. I'm not expecting them to become the Chicago Bulls overnight, but LA is shooting 51.2% from the field for the series (compared to 45.7% for the Suns). All Phoenix needs to do is focus on getting a hand up and contesting shots a little better and that should be enough.

The Clips should have no problem moving on as long as they control the tempo. They have shown a tendency to get caught up and play at the pace the Suns prefer for stretches in all four games, and that has got to stop. LA is the superior defensive team, so as long as the Clips play the kind of D they are capable of, while playing smart on offense, they should be fine.


NHL Week In Review By : Ed Wasser

- The best sports talk radio show in this country, in my egotistical opinion, is "Mike and The Mad Dog" on WFAN in New York City. Seldom do I disagree with them but on Tuesday they were discussing something that I disagreed with vehemently. This week the Stanley Cup was on the soap opera "The Guiding Light", the show "Meet The Press", and on "Regis and Kelly" and next week more PR stops are planned. Russo and Francesa were making the point that the Cup should be more like the shroud of Turin, only to be brought out once a year. The idea being that there should be an air of mystery regarding the Cup. No way. I say the Cup should be brought all over the world and shown every chance possible to as many people as possible. For most people it's the only thing they know about the NHL and it's an essential part of the marketing. (Cliché Alert!!) It's a trophy that belongs to the people.

- The three major questions for this week are 1.) Who the hell takes those ridiculous "workshops" that are featured on the HBO show "Real Sex"? 2.) Who was that reanimated cadaver that people were calling Priscilla Presley on "American Idol" last Tuesday? And 3.) Who would have ever thought that the Mighty Ducks would capture lightning in a bottle with a blazing hot goalie again? A few years ago it was JS Giguere and this year the kid's name is Ilya Brygalov and he's playing unbelievably. He single handedly won the series against the Lanche and could possibly lead the Mighty Ducks to another Stanley Cup final.- Peter Forsberg is out until January 2007 while he recovers from duel foot surgery. That's what you get with Peter Forsberg. When he's playing he's a monster but he is brittle and you just have to dance with that devil when you take him on. - Gotta feel bad for the Sens. They've been loaded with more talent then Scores on a Saturday night but they've always had goalie issues. They thought they had that solved with the edition of Dominick Hasek who promptly got hurt and they were stuck with Ray Emery. Emery played well in the first round but he played like crap against the Sabres. So the Sabres advance to the eastern conference finals. The Sabres are just on fire right now. And now they face....

- The Canes finally dispatched the Devils and will face the Sabres in a series that should be an up and down offensive show. The Canes are well constructed team with role players that all contribute and contribute often. And I love that coach Peter Laviolette is having such a phenomenal season after the Islanders unceremoniously fired his butt and pretty much blamed him for all their woes. I credit Doris Barksdale for all of Carolina's success. She's the Canes motivational consultant. That's not a joke, the Canes have a motivational consultant, I saw it on their website. The Canes best game was game 4, an overtime win in which they scored 2 goals in about 20 seconds. I missed most of the game because I was sucked into that damn David Blaine crap. I couldn't help it, it was like a pop culture black hole. Damn you David Blaine, DAMN YOU TO HELL!!! Anyway, I feel sorry for the NHL because they're stuck with either the Canes, Sabres, Ducks, San Jose, or Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Finals. Not exactly ratings grabbers.

- I must be the biggest mush since Frankie Coffeecake. Last week I was all over the Sharks, even saying they had a shot at winning the Cup, and they promptly lost 3 games in a row to the Oilers and currently trail the series. Their offense disappeared, stupid penalties, it's a complete breakdown. Granted game 4 was a 3 overtime affair but even that game ended on a bad defensive turnover. I predict that my predictions will be wrong so I'll lay off.

Editor's Note: If you didn't watch the Sopranos last night and are planning on watching it sometime this week, don't worry, the below summary doesn't give away much detail from this weeks episode. Read on...

- "I love you Johnny Cakes". That pretty much sums up "The Sopranos" this season. Don't get me wrong, they've had some OK moments this season but for the most part this season has been a disappointment. You have to remember that this is the TV show that set the standard for all other TV shows. If this was a season of "Law and Order" it would probably be pretty good but not for "The Sopranos". Dream sequences, Ben Kingsley, AJ (if there is a worse actor in Screen Actors Guild then Robert Iler I haven't seen him. Mr. T would be more believable in that role), Dr. Melfi, Janice, the whole gay stuff, and not enough grit and drama. What made "The Sopranos" great was that it focused on the day to day drama of the mafia and how they made a living. Now it meanders and the reason is David Chase. Chase created "The Sopranos" and he writes almost every word of the series and because of that it makes the series stale sometimes. I know "The Sopranos" is Chase's baby but imagine how good it would be if they had a room full of writers hammering out stories under Chase's supervision. I give last nights episode a B-. I liked the Johnny Sac stuff, I thought Meadow confiding in her father about her boyfriend and him not knowing what to say was great, but the whole gay stuff and the fire fighter stuff is silly. And how many people can get shot and survive? Again...this is "The Sopranos" we're talking about, not "Everybody Loves Raymond", this is the show that produced the episode were Ralphie killed the stripper with his bare hands which was the best hour of television I've ever witnessed, regardless of series. So we'll see were this goes, this is a show that can go from 0 to 60 in one episode, in one scene sometimes. My hopes are still high.

Monday Morning Mehta 5/8/06

Edition # 161
May 8, 2006

Phils/MLB

It has taken 161 editions, but it's finally happened. The Phillies had a perfect week going 7-0 and are on an 8 game winning streak. The first place Mets come to town for a big showdown, well, it's still only May so it can't be that big but the Mets will have Pedro and Glavine throw in the first two games and they are about as hot as pitchers can get. A great test for the Phillies this week. Quick breakdown of last week:

- I always knew this team had this in them since I've been so positive about them. Clutch hitting, great bullpen work, excellent managing are a staple of Phillies baseball.

- One of my favorite Phillies, Jimmy Rollins, got a hit in each of the 8 games the Phils have won, and of course had 5 walks this week. Jimmy is just so patient at the plate as I've said for years.

- Number 1 starter Jon Lieber (not to be confused with staff ace Brett Myers) went 2-0 and continues to keep Phillies in ball games.

- Manager of the year candidate Charlie Manuel continues to show his brilliance with key decisions late in games.

- Bullpen stopper Rheal Cormier hasn't given up a run this year, and continues to show why this column has always thought he's been a great pitcher.

- I knew they should sign Tom Gordon and his 10 for 10 comes of no surprise to yours truly. His 0.61 ERA to go along with 23 K's in 14 2/3rds innings is right about what I expected.

- Mets and the Reds this week, two teams playing very well. A 4-2 week would be great, especially considering the pitchers in the first two games of the series.

- Great huge sign last night at the ballpark in left field every inning Bonds trotted out there: "Ruth did it on hot dogs and beer. Aaron did it with class. How did * you * do it?" I'm in the minority on the whole Bonds thing but that sign was excellent.

- As most readers have, I've gone to many Phillies games. You tend to ignore the songs that are playing over the PA for the most part during the game. By that, I mean, like when the opposing team has a conference on the mound with the pitching coach, catcher and pitcher, the PA guy plays the theme from "Three's Company". Or when the opposing player gets thrown out trying to steal a base they play "Been caught Stealing" by Jane's Addiction. At this point I've really stopped noticing, until last night. When Jimmy Rollins stole a base, they played "I Ran" by A Flock of Seagulls. Please Mr. PA announcer guy, PLEASE STOP!!

- Last night was the 2nd longest home run I've ever seen in person (Bonds' blast of course). It surpassed a Fred McGriff home run I saw at the Vet, but didn't top the Mike Piazza home run at the 1996 All Star game in Philly off Charles Nagy.

- I'm not the Horse Racing expert on this staff, but I'd get more hate mail then I already get if I didn't give credit to local horse Barbaro who won the 132nd run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. In an impressive win, the Delaware Park horse owned by the Jacksons from Chester county, took charge of the race near the turn and never looked back. Like I said, I'm not an expert on horse racing but since that's never stopped me from making predictions, I'll make a bold one and say this horse wins the Triple Crown.

Around the MLB

The Phillies aren't the only team in MLB to have won 8 in a row, the San Diego Padres have won 8 straight. Of course beating teams in the NL West and the Cubs, shouldn't really count.

The Braves haven't looked this bad in a long time. You still can't count them out, but right now the run of division titles looks bleak to say the least. Is Leo Mazzone's loss really a factor, or did he see this coming? The pitchers have been inconsistent to say the least.

The White Sox continue to roll as their pitching is looking phenomenal once again this year. Javier Vasquez looks rejuvenated as does another ex-Yankee, Jose Contreras. Yankees haters should really love this team.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Another year, another undefeated first round for me. I was a total of seven games off for the eight series' combined. I hit three exactly and missed another three by one game. Many people out there are calling this the "best first round ever". I can't go that far because three of the series' were not all that great. Conversely, there were three very competitive series' (NJ over Ind, Mia over Chi & SA over Sac) and two "instant classics" (Cle over Wsh & Phx over LAL). Five out of eight makes this one of best opening rounds in history, but not thee best. Either way, I'm sure Commissioner David Stern is ecstatic with all the positive press the NBA is receiving.

On to the Conference Semi-Finals.....

EAST

Cleveland v Detroit - I wish there was something I could say to sell this series on a competitive level, but I'm at a loss. The Pistons have the edge in experience, coaching and overall talent. Not to mention that Detroit is the more disciplined team on both offense and defense as well. Since the Cavaliers' half court defense is very suspect (I'm being nice there), I'm guessing that coach Mike Brown is going to try and out score the Pistons by playing up tempo ball. I doubt that will work, but Cleveland has absolutely no chance in a grind it out type of game where every possession matters. The Cavs should be happy that they got this far and use this series as a measuring stick for what they need to do as a franchise to compete with the big boys. Detroit needs to take care of business efficiently while continuing to fine tune their play.

Key match up - LeBron James & Tayshaun Prince. Bron has averaged 35.7 points on 51% shooting to go along with 7.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists in an unreal 47.2 minutes per game so far. Not bad for a 21 year playing in his first post season. The main reason to watch these games is to see how the Pistons defend James and how he reacts to it. I'm sure Tay will be his primary defender, but since no one person can stop Bron, I expect to see the initial version of the "LeBron Rules" put into play. Should be very interesting...

Prediction - Detroit might let one game slip away because they don't show up, but there's also a real chance that every game could be a blowout. Pistons in 5.

New Jersey v Miami - The should be a very competitive series because each team presents problems for the other. The Nets' superior athleticism at the wing positions has exploited the Heat's weak perimeter defense every time they played this year. On the flip side, NJ doesn't have enough big bodies down low to deal with Shaquille O'Neal. It's true that Shaq is slowing down at an alarming rate, but I don't think the Nets want to risk Nenad Krstic getting in foul trouble. So that leaves the job to Jason Collins followed by Cliff Robinson and John Thomas. Ugh. Tempo will be another important factor in this series. Both teams can run, but it would behoove Miami to slow it down and not forget to run their offense though Shaq. A very interesting subplot here is who wins the coaching battle. Heat coach Pat Riley is not what he once was. While NJ's Lawrence Frank is underrated when it comes to preparation and adjustments. In a series this close, subtle coaching moves could be the difference.

Key match up - Vince Carter & Dwyane Wade. Both lead their squads in scoring, excitement and highlights. Unfortunately, Wade's left hip contusion threatens to ruin what could be an especially exciting individual duel. VC absolutely lit Miami up this year to the tune of 38.5 points and 55.7% shooting. Dwyane has more play making responsibilities then Vince, so Wade has to be careful not to get caught up in a scoring contest with Carter. The Heat will probably use multiple defenders on VC to hide Wade's injury and protect him from fouls. Vince will not guard Dwyane all of the time either, but he'll be on him at least half of the time, if not more.
Prediction - I don't think either team looked all that great in the first round, and this series could easily be brutal to watch. In the end I like Miami's depth over the Nets' chemistry. Heat in 7.

WEST

Dallas v San Antonio - This is the second round match up that everybody has been waiting for, and I don't see it disappointing. With the Spurs coming off a tough series, and on a short turn around, the well rested Mavericks have a golden opportunity to steal home court in game one. Even if Dallas does win the opener, they are probably going to have to win two games in SA to advance. Both of these clubs are extremely versatile on offense, play solid defense, have great depth and are well coached. These two teams are so evenly matched that it comes down to health or experience in my opinion. The Mavs are the healthier squad right now. Of major concern for the Spurs is Tony Parker's bruised right leg. If his quickness is limited in any way, SA is in big trouble. As for experience, Dallas has some, but they never seem to be able to get over the hump when the chips are down. This series should be a close hard fought affair that is entertaining to watch and gets a little testy before it's over.

Key match up - Dirk Nowitzki & Tim Duncan. As far as individual match ups go, it doesn't get much bigger then this. These guys play the same position, but are effective in totally different ways. Dirk MUST take advantage of Tim's plantar fasciitis. Nowitzki needs to bust his butt down the floor and make Duncan work to get back on D. Dirk should also take advantage of his quick first step to get by Tim on the perimeter. Duncan has to be patient on the block and understand that Nowitzki can't guard him down there. If Timmy does this, Dirk will almost certainly end up on the bench in foul trouble.

Prediction - This one is a tough call for me because these two teams have been the second and third best in the NBA all season long. I really want to pick the Mavs because history tells me to side with health. However, I picked SA back in October, and as long as they aren't playing the Lakers, they usually find a way. Spurs in 7.
Phoenix v Clippers - Los Angeles will be on six days of rest for game one tonight facing a mentally and physically drained Suns club. In other words, the perfect set up to seize home court and never give it back. I hope that Clips' coach Mike Dunleavy is smart enough to follow the game plan laid out by Phil Jackson. The most important thing this LA team has going for them is Elton Brand and Chris Kaman's low post offense. Those two combined have more then enough moves down low to dominate Phoenix inside thus dictating the tempo. The Clips are also better defensively and have more overall scoring options then the Lakers. As for the Suns, they must continue to keep the pace of the game where they like it by running and making three point shots. I expect this series to be very exciting and feature many back and forth high scoring affairs. Whichever squad does a better job controlling the rhythm of the games will probably come out on top.

Key match up - Steve Nash & Sam Cassell. They are both 30+, have back issues and are allergic to playing defense. On the other hand, they both know how to run a team, can hit open shots, make good decisions and aren't afraid of the big moment. These two should conduct an interesting game of cat and mouse over the course of the series. Look for Sam to post Steve up on occasion to try and get the two time defending MVP into foul trouble. Nash's right ankle injury from game seven is something to keep a close eye on because so much of Phoenix' half court offense is dependent on his penetration.

Prediction - I'm actually surprised that more people aren't picking LA here. Sure the Suns proved to everyone how tough and resilient they really are last series, but the Clips play better defense and have more size, depth and rebounding then Phoenix. LA in 6.

NHL Week In Review By : Ed Wasser

- How crazy is this? The Rangers had planned to buy out defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh's contract this summer but a funny thing happened along the way.....he was arrested for DUI. So the quick thinking Ozolinsh entered the NHL's substance abuse program (he's a repeat visitor by the way) and now the Rangers can't buy him out because he's considered an injured player. So he'll get his full $2,750,000 salary next year. The only thing the Rangers can do is send him to the minors but they still have to pay him there but at least it won't count against the cap.

- Cool line from Eagles first round draft pick Broderick Bunkley on WIP when asked what he believes his impact will be on the Eagles...."I dunno, I just wanna be a legend". Damn, now that's a cool attitude.

- I'm going to just give a brief overview of what's going on in the playoffs and then I'm going to go Simon Cowell on the Flyers' asses. Choose to skip the playoff review if you wish and just go straight to the destruction, and by the way...if this article ends abruptly it means I punched a hole in my computer screen because I'm pissed.

- OK, playoffs. If this seems rushed it's because I'm dying to get to destroying the Flyers.....the Canes won 4 in a row to beat the Habs. Nobody in North Carolina cared so I can't imagine you do either. Oh, here's the obvious question...over the last few months of the season the Devils beat the Flyers like a harp seal, in game 1 of round 2 of the playoffs the Canes beat the Devils 6 - 0. The question is, what do you think the Canes would have done to the Flyers in the playoffs?.....The Ducks have played musical goalies with JS Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov and are coming off a tough 7 game series with the Flames so obviously they're beating the Avalanche 2 games to 0 scoring back to back shutouts. It makes no sense but the Ducks are playing great.....In one of the best games I've ever seen the Sabres beat the Sens 7 - 6 in overtime of game one. Two high powered offenses and mediocre goalies can make for a real fun series.....The Sharks won game 1 of their series with the Oilers and I'm starting to believe they have a legit shot at the Cup. Shark goalie Vesa Toskala is playing lights out and Patrick Marleau is on fire.

- The Flyers have been eliminated from the playoffs in an embarrassing, one sided face smash and there is only one person to blame for all this.......Brian Roberts (Who?). Brian Roberts, he's the CEO of Comcast, the owner of the Flyers. Roberts has stood by and allowed Ed Snider to run the Flyers and Sixers any way he's sees fit and I predict as long as the accounting balances continue to be written in black ink he'll continue to do so. Roberts allows Snider to keep Billy King as Sixers GM and as far as Flyers GM Bobby Clarke is concerned, Snider has essentially given him a lifetime contract and has a blind sycophancy toward the guy. Now what I'm hoping will happen is that Roberts notices that Philadelphia's Comcast Sportsnet has a distinct lack of primetime programming this spring save for darts, month old boxing matches, and women's soccer and he starts to wonder who's responsible and then starts to take a closer look at these organizations.

Unless you're blind you know what the Flyers problem was this whole season.....speed. But before I get into that I'm actually going to give Flyers GM Bobby Clarke a microscopic smidge of credit. He believed that with the new NHL the Flyers needed a big defenseman, who would be tough to move, clogging the area in front of the net and forcing the play to the corners. Not a bad theory but did you catch the key word? The key word is defenseman, defenseMAN. Clarke didn't get a defenseman, he got 3 big, slow, lumbering defenseMEN. Clarke got Mike Rathje, Derian Hatcher, and the real disgrace was getting Chris Therien back. It was common knowledge that during the 2003 - 2004 season Ken Hitchcock HATED Chris Therien's game and couldn't wait to unload him, which Bobby Clarke did. BUT THEN HE BROUGHT HIM BACK!!! (In the famous Nancy Kerrigan whine) WHY?? WHY?? WHY?? Plus Clarke signed 35 year old Brian Savage, which as everyone knows is an age that is not old, not at all, in fact it's still quite young, but it's old for a hockey player. 34 year old snail Turner Stevenson was also brought in. ANOTHER guy brought in for his "grit" and "defensive ability" yada, yada, yada. All that stuff that was key in 1975. Clarke let Tony Amonte go, which he deserved, but then he kept Donald Brashear. Why? And to cap off the pentagon of slow players Clarke got Denis Gauthier "to be a physical presence". Huh? Wasn't that supposed to be Hatcher's job?

And further more...if Keith Primeau had been healthy he would have been part of the problem, not part of the solution. You can't "great leader" your way into being a faster skater.

So now the Flyers are stuck with this amazingly slow goon-a-rama and they're stuck with some of them for a while because of contracts. Thankfully Donald Brashear, Chris Therien, and Brian Savage are all unrestricted free agents (Will they be resigned?). I won't even dignify that with a response!!!! Actually I will, Savage and Brashear are already gone, Therien will soon follow. The Flyers have got to get faster or I'll be writing this article again next year.

Monday Morning Mehta 5/1/06

Edition # 160
May 1, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

MLB/Phils

A typical Phillies week to cap a typical Phillies month, as they go 3-4 on the week and finish 10-14 in the month of April for the second straight year. So what's wrong? What isn't?

First and foremost, it's the pitching. I don't want to hear about how solid the pitchers have been all year. Going 6 innings isn't a good start. If that's what you get from your 4th and 5th starter, you are content with that. But when every one of your pitchers goes 6, and going 7 is when you are ecstatic, it's a recipe for bullpen disaster. You just cannot rely on your pen that much. A. They'll blow games for you. B. You'll leave the arms for dead by August (see Ryan Madson last year).

Chase Utley has been a problem. While I doubt Chase will be a problem in the long run, his play this year has been pretty pitiful, minus about 4 games.

Pat Burrell hasn't been good. Stats can be deceiving and Pat's numbers prove this. He's hitting .300 and among the league leaders with 21 RBI's. So what's the problem? Last year when Pat Burrell finished second in the league in RBI's he finished with a .313 average with runners in scoring position. This year, he's .212 and was under .200 until yesterday. Being that Burrell always hits a batter or two after Bobby Abreu, who generally gets on base at a .410-.430 clip, Burrell always has RBI opportunities. Just to show you, Burrell has 38 plate appearances with RISP, while Ryan Howard has only 23 (Howard's only hitting .222 himself). Burrell continues to be a big key to the Phillies offense. The Phillies best hitter with RISP? Bobby Abreu at .444 with 18 official at bats (26 plate appearances - 8 walks). Those who want Abreu leading off keep forgetting that Abreu can't knock himself in after drawing a walk.

Jimmy Rollins is his typical self. After sporting a .188 average in August of last year, he went on a tear in September. In the offseason, all Phillies fans had hoped Jimmy had "gotten it". Well, after a decent week or so, Jimmy went onto hit 5 for his last 34 in the homestand and is back to his usual .320-.330 OB% self. That just doesn't cut it at the top of the order.

Lefties are causing the Phillies middle of the order huge problems. Even more reason Pat Burrell is so important to the lineup's success. Abreu is a pathetic .160 vs. lefties.

It's getting awfully close to Manuel being fired. I'm sure Gillick wants to be fair, but one has to wonder about his Seattle connections to Lou Pinella, who is currently collecting unemployment (well, I doubt he's that desperate, but you get the point)

Most important thing this week: Barry Bonds comes to Philly. Bonds is currenly at 711 homers, and if he gets hot this week, he could be staring at breaking Babe Ruth's number in Philadelphia over the weekend.

Around the League
For all those Yankee haters, don't look at the standings this morning. The Yankees are atop the AL East once again. The good news is the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is renewed tonight as the Yanks face the Sox in Johnny Damon's return to Fenway.

You can't take away too much from early season series, but the White Sox sweep over the Angels in Anaheim was impressive.

The Reds are the story of the NL as they're tied for the best NL record with the Cards. Their pitching has been excellent as Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo is a combined 8-1. It's going to be tough for each of those guys to win 18-20 games - which it probably will take for them to stay with the Cards, but staying in the wild card race the whole year certainly isn't out of the question.

Speaking of the Cards, keep an eye on Elizardo Ramirez. He really shouldn't be any good, but the Phillies traded him in the Corey Lidle trade, so don't be surprised if he suddenly pitches like Pedro Martinez.

The NFL Draft

I'm really amazed at how big the NFL Draft has gotten in the last few years. That being said, it's really funny how bad these pre draft pundits are. All the teams throw out so much smokescreen, it's impossible to know who is going to draft whom.

As for the Eagles draft, I'm not going to be one of these idiotic people who grade the draft the next day or fans that judge the draft the next day. Just think about it, back when the Eagles took Donovan McNabb the Eagles fans infamously booed like crazy up in New York. Member the ESPN cameras on "Sean Young from the Dirty 30" as he's screaming and yelling upset at the pick? Well, how many Eagles fans want Ricky Williams now? Or Tim Couch, Akili Smith, etc.?

Or what about when the Eagles inexplicably took Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and Michael Lewis with their first three picks with Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent playing like Pro Bowlers? Eagles fans were perplexed.

But they were besides themselves with joy when the Eagles took flashy wideout Freddie Mitchell. They ran to the stores to get their 84 jerseys. How'd that turn out?

All that tells me, is that these drafts can't be judged until years afterward. I'm done judging drafts the day or even year after. I'll wait a couple years, thanks. People rave about Denver's draft, but what if Jay Cutley is more like Heath Shuler than Ben Roethlisberger?

Either way, the Eagles are still going to have a gaping hole at WR this year. Javon Walker would've been a nice fit, and I'd still like to see them go after Ashlie Lelie, but I'm not sure if he's available anymore.

NBA - Derreck Sura

EAST

Indiana v New Jersey - Tied 2-2. This series has proven to be as tough and evenly matched as a I thought it would be. Most of the statistics are even through four games, save three. The Pacers have been better on the boards 39.3 to 33.8 rpg for +5.5 rebounding differential. Indy is also shooting three's at a much higher clip (35.6% to 23.7%). There's no doubt that rebounds and 3-point shooting are what has kept the Pacers in this thing so far. The Nets have the lead in the turnover department though (8.8 to 16.5 topg). NJ's +7.7 turnover differential is probably canceling out Indy's advantage in the other two categories, hence why the series is now best of three.

Jermaine O'Neal is playing very well for the Pacers, but Peja Stojakovic needs to suck it up. Peja missed games two and four with a left knee injury. This injury was supposedly bothering Stojakovic throughout the season, but somehow he managed to not a miss a game until the playoffs. Is anybody buying this? Hey Peja, take the skirt off and get in there already.

Second year big man Nenad Krstic is having his coming out party for the Nets. Krstic has upped his regular season averages in points (13.5 to 18 ppg), shooting (50.7% to 54.7%) and rebounding (6.4 to 7 rpg). Nenad's increased confidence in his low post scoring gives NJ's half court offense an added dimension that should help them if they advance.

I still think the Nets are the better team. I see this one going the full seven games with home court being the difference for NJ.

Milwaukee v Detroit - Pistons lead 2-1. Losing game three by 20 points was a wake up call for Detroit. It was pretty obvious that the Piston players thought they could just coast after winning the first two games rather easily. The Bucks deserve credit for not folding and giving their best effort of the series when they needed it most. That said, this series is over in five.

Detroit has to want to finish Milwaukee off ASAP now because of Richard Hamilton's left ankle injury. The only thing that can make the Eastern Conference playoffs competitive is an injury to one of the Piston starters. I know the word from Detroit is that Rip's injury isn't serious, but I'm not so sure. He's certainly not moving as well, and the size of the ice pack he had on the sidelines Saturday seemed a little excessive for a "minor" ankle sprain.

Chicago v Miami - Tied 2-2. Believe it or not, this series has progressed pretty much like I thought it would. I suspected the Bulls would be in every game, but I didn't think Chicago would be able to win more then one game in the closing moments. Give the Bulls credit for not backing down and continually outworking the Heat.

It should come as no surprise that Miami's lackluster play has continued on into the post season (they better flip their "on switch" before it's too late). I still say the Heat are the more talented team. The thing is, they know it too. Therein lies the problem. Miami has fallen into the trap of accepting Shaquille O'Neal's mantra of "We'll be fine in the playoffs." I assume the Heat now understand that they are going to have to play hard for the full for 48 minutes because Chicago never gives up. I expect Miami to win the next two games, but they are going to have a lot trouble in the next round because the team they face will be far more talented then the Bulls are.

Washington v Cleveland - Tied 2-2. This is yet another series that is proceeding just as I expected. Although I will admit that the Wizards have looked like the better team for the most part. LeBron James has been great in his first post season and Gilbert Arenas has been his usual unstoppable self. That's why I find the whole grousing about Bron getting calls thing a little silly.

Look, this is the NBA, and stars get calls. I understand that coaches use the media to get their message across to the referees any way they can. But for Arenas, of all people, to say that James is getting preferential treatment is ridiculous. I watch a lot of games throughout the year, and Gil is right up there with the best of them when it comes to the benefit of the doubt or reputation fouls. Besides, look at the numbers. Washington has been called for 83 fouls and shot 138 free throws. Compared to the Cavaliers being called for 105 fouls and shooting 103 free throws. Even further, GA has been to the line 52 times so far and Bron only 42.

If Cleveland would involve Zydrunas Ilgauskas more I think they would win this series going away. Big Z averaged 11.4 shots a game in the regular season. In the playoffs his attempts are down to 9.8 per game. I know that Ilgauskas is not a star, but he has a very nice post up game when given the opportunity. Z is the one place the Cavs have a clear advantage, and I hope coach Mike Brown realizes that before it's too late.

Neither of these clubs play good defense, use their bench, or are particularly well coached. For these reasons I anticipate that the rest of the games will be close back and forth affairs that come down to who makes more clutch shots in the fourth quarter. If this series does wind up going the distance, I still can't see LeBron losing at home in game seven.

WEST

Memphis v Dallas - Mavericks lead 3-0. When Dirk Nowitzki hit a 3-pointer with 15.7 seconds left to tie game three, and Chucky Atkins followed that up by missing a wide open lay-up at the buzzer, this series was officially over. I suppose the Grizzlies could win game four to save some face, but I highly doubt it. The two reasons Memphis has failed to get it done are simple: Mike Miller and Pau Gasol.

Fresh off winning the Sixth Man of the Year award, Miller has totally disappeared in the playoffs. He went from averaging 13.7 points and shooting 40.7% from three in the regular season, to 8 points and 16.7% from distance in this series (his assists, rebounds and overall shooting percentage are also down).

In .5 more minutes per game Gasol is averaging less points (18.7 from 20.4 ppg), rebounds (7 from 8.9 rpg), blocks (1.67 from 1.91 bpg), assists (4 from 4.6 apg) and shooting a lower percentage (41.7% from 50.3%). Pau's slippage is much worse in my opinion because he has also shown that he is not a closer. "Spanish Fly" is a great regular season performer, but much like Chris Webber or Kevin Garnett before him, Gasol's personality is such that he lacks the makeup to take over games when his team needs him to the most.

Clippers v Denver - Los Angeles leads 3-1. Once Kenyon Martin was suspended indefinitely for "conduct detrimental to the team" after his game two halftime rant against coach George Karl and several teammates alike, this series was over. K-Mart seems to be mad at the world because he's not the same player since his left knee never healed properly after microfracture surgery. Now he's going to file a formal grievance against the Nuggets? If there was any doubt remaining that Martin would be traded this summer, that grievance should settle it.

Carmelo Anthony's production has fallen off in the playoffs for third consecutive post season. My take is that Melo reverts back to some old bad habits and starts trying to force the action when the games become more important. The flip side to that could be that Denver has never had the perimeter shooters (and still doesn't) to exploit the double teams that Anthony regularly draws. Whatever the reason, nothing can change the fact that Melo went from averaging 26.5 points on 48.1% shooting this year to 20.5 points on 33.3% shooting in the playoffs. (In his rookie year he went from 21 ppg on 42.6% shooting to 15 ppg and 32.8%. His second year wasn't as bad, but he still dropped from 20.8 ppg and 43.1% to 19.2 ppg and 42.2%.)

Lakers v Phoenix - Los Angeles leads 3-1. I'm always tooting my horn when I am right, so it's only fair to say I was dead wrong about this series. In my own defense though, I have not seen THIS Laker team play all year long (I saw at least 70 of their regular season games too). Sharing the ball? Making good decisions? The lion's share of the credit for this goes to LA coach Phil Jackson and his game plan. The Lakers have been successful controlling the tempo with their deliberate slow down offense. LA has accomplished a few things by executing Phil's strategy to a tee.

First and foremost the Suns have not been able to take advantage of the Lakers' poor transition defense. This in turn has exploited Phoenix' major weakness, their half court offense. Next, Shawn Marion is far less effective when the pace of the game slows down. The "Matrix" excels in the up and down game. However, in half court sets he looks lost and really doesn't have a go to move to fall back on. Of course, a lot of how bad Marion looks could be because Lamar Odom is defending him. LO has continued his exceptional play and has won the battle of second fiddles so far.

What do the Kobe Bryant haters have to say about this situation? Not shooting enough. To passive. Trying to prove a point. Whatever the case may be, Bryant is clearly making his teammates better right now. He's actually doing a better job then Steve Nash is too. The defending MVP has had little or no help thus far. Which has forced him to try and take matters into his own hands. That is not Steve's game (it's Kobe's), but I blame coach Mike D'Antoni more then Nash.

I usually watch the post game press conferences on NBATV, and D'Antoni always has one of two responses to why his club is struggling. "We have to run, because that's who we are." or "We are playing tight out there and just need to relax." Umm, OK coach, but do you have another plan if that doesn't work? Naturally, no one ever asks that, but I think it's exceedingly obvious that Phil has coached circles around Mike in this series.

It's poetic justice that my two year first round undefeated streak should be ended by my favorite team. That said, however unlikely it may seem at this point, if any squad can run off three straight victories, it is these Suns.

Sacramento v San Antonio - Tied 2-2. The Spurs are a bounce of the ball on a Brent Barry three away from being down 3-1. Ever since Ron Artest's arrival the Kings have been playing with a new found toughness. Sacto has been able to muscle SA around pretty much at will by posting up Artest, Bonzi Wells and even Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich and his staff are going to have come up with a new plan to defend Ron-Ron and Bonzi on the block, because the mismatches those two are creating right now are killing SA.

Speaking of defense, no one is currently flexing more muscle then Artest is. Ronnie has effectively taken Manu Ginobili out of the three games he has played in. Not including game two, Manu has averaged 7 points on 39.1% shooting, which is way down from his season averages of 15.1 ppg and 46.2%. Ginobili's 3-point shooting is also down from his regular season mark (21.4% from 38.2%). It's more then just the numbers though, the look an Manu's face has been one of utter frustration throughout the series. Ginobili has to snap out of it and find a way to take advantage of his quickness and not let Artest body him up so much.

As this series moves on to the best of three, it's definitely up for grabs. For the Kings to advance they are going to need to Mike Bibby and Brad Miller to start consistently making open shots. Bibby's field goal percentage has dropped from 43.2% to 35.5% in the playoffs and Miller's from 49.5% to 43.2%. The Spurs will be in trouble if those two find the range. As weird as this may sound, SA needs more out of Tim Duncan. Timmy's numbers haven't really fallen off, but he's just not exuding that air of confidence he usually does. I know about the plantar fasciitis in his right foot, but truly great players always seem to find a way when their team needs them to.

The Spurs look eminently beatable at this point. I think they'll eventually handle Sacto and move on, but they may not even be the favorites in the next round.

NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

Notes from the playoffs.....The Rangers were humanly destroyed by the Devils, getting swept in the series and scoring a grand total of 4 goals in the 4 games. That series for the Rangers my friends, was UGLY.....After a one game scare the Sens dispatched the Lightning 4 games to 1 to move on. I wasn't sold on the ability of the Sens to beat the Bolts but when I saw the Bolts were going to start ex-Flyers stiff Sean Burke in goal I figured it was a done deal. I actually admire Sean Burke. The guy parlayed one big playoff run for the Devils in like 1988 into a career that's still going on. If there was a nuclear holocaust the only things to survive would be cockroaches and Sean Burke wearing an NHL sweater.....The Oilers are leading the Red Wings 3 games to 2. Oiler defenseman Chris Pronger has been dominant and is the leading candidate for the "Claude Lemieux Award" given annually to the player that sleepwalks through the regular season and turns it on for the playoffs.....The Flames are leading the Ducks 3 games to 2 with Jarome Iginla scoring 5 goals in the series so far. Even Tony Amonte is playing well for the Flames. The Ducks are playing musical goalies which is always the kiss of death.....I predicted the Stars would be the dark horse in the playoffs and of course they choked like dogs. The Lanche won the series 4 games to 1 with goalie Jose Theodore playing out of his mind. If the Lanche make a run and Theodore plays big then GM Pierre Lacroix is going to look like a genius because everyone in the league thought that trade was nuts.....Carolina is winning their series against the Habs 3 games to 2 and have regained home ice advantage. Rod Brind'Amour is having a big series. And by the way, I just read that Brind'Amour won more then 300 more face offs then the second place guy (I'm not sure who that is) for the 2005 - 2006 season. The guy is a monster.....The Sharks beat the Preds in 5 games and are slowly gaining momentum as a trendy pick for the Stanley Cup. It's a shame about the Preds because they have a nice team but they couldn't over come losing goalie Tomas Vokoun.

So the Flyers are down 3 games to 2 to the Sabres and have about as much chance of winning this series as Tori Spelling has of winning an Oscar. And even if they won the series by some miraculous act of God the Sens or Devils would take care of them later. I attended the game last Friday, a few observations.....first of all I liked how the Flyers showed the video clip of Scott Norwood missing the Super Bowl field goal right as the game was starting. I thought that was clever. The game was won by the Flyers but when I watched the Flyers in person it was crystal clear that the Flyers are a painfully slow team. And the two biggest culprits are Mike Rathje and Derian Hatcher. The entire game they're just chasing the play. And the worst part is they're going to be around for a while. The Flyers need to totally revamp not only their roster but they have to revamp their thinking.