Monday Morning Mehta
Edition # 200
April 2, 2007 aka OPENING DAY
www.mondaymorningmehta.com
NL Preview and Predictions - Before I start I just wanted to remind everyone I got last years World Series winner correct. It's very odd of me to give myself any credit as you all know.
NL East
1. New York Mets - 93 wins - There's 2 parts to this. 1. The Mets Jinx factor. The last time I had the Mets in this slot they went onto lose about 137 games. So why not. 2. I really think they're going to win the division. The starters has been the concern but with the loss of Duaner Sanchez the bullpen is now also a concern. Aaron Heilman is the Ryan Madson of the Mets. Good pitcher, but only a matter of time til his arm falls off. I think they'll get alot out of rookie Mike Pelfrey as well as getting some production from Oliver Perez. Glavine will give them consistency, but the big factor here is that you know they'll go and get a starter at the trade deadline if they need one and Pedro Martinez will be back by August which will be a huge lift even if Pedro isn't 100%. This team is built to win in the regular season. The number 1 seed in the NL is probable.
2. Phillies - 90 wins - There's lots to like about the Phillies. A solid, deep pitching staff. A pitcher ready to emerge as a staff ace (Brett Myers). Two proven veteran pitchers (Freddy Garcia & Jamie Moyer). A young phenom who could be an all star (Cole Hamels). The offense is led by an awesome 3-4 punch in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Mike Lieberthal and David Bell/Abraham Nunez are being replaced by Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz and Wes Helms/Abraham Nunez. All in all, that's gotta be an improvement. Pitching wins. And I like the Phils pitching, so right off the bat I'll tell you this is my Wild Card team. But there's concerns I have which is why I can't put them at Number 1 in the NL East:
A. Gillick couldn't address the Pat Burrell situation. Burrell may have a huge year just like he did in 2005, but there was no secret Pat Gillick didn't want to see him in a Phillie uniform. The trade rumors will probably heat up again next year.
B. Gillick didn't address a weak bullpen in the offseason. Antonio Alfonseca was the key pickup. They have no lefty in the pen either, which early on may cost them some games.
C. Giliick addressed the 3rd base & catching situation with Wes Helms & Rod Barajas. Yes I just said above that it's an improvement, but seriously, these guys aren't exactly studs.
The key is Cole Hamels. If he pitches like did at the end of last year, he could win 16-17 games and possibly be a Cy Young candidate. If Hamels shows his youth, this team could be in trouble.
3. Atlanta Braves - 85 wins - This is a very dangerous team. There's no reason they can't win the division again. John Smoltz is healthy and ready to pitch for a big contract. Think about this, Smoltz is making $8 million this year. There's no way Smoltz doesn't know how much money he's pitching for. I expect a monster year (but hopefully his 0-3 record and 7.71 ERA on Opening Day holds up). Enough about Smoltz, Tim Hudson is back and should be strong. The bullpen could be the best in the division. The offense is solid with the Jones boys and Jeff Francouer to go along with Brian McCann. This team really scares me and I'm afraid they'll be in one of the first two slots, I just don't know which of the Phils or Mets I could remove.
4. Florida Marlins - 77 wins - This is a tough division but in many other divisions I'd have the Marlins over .500. A very good young team with one of the games best GM's in Larry Beinfest.
5. Washington Nationals - 69 wins - This team would be a last place team unless they were in the Royals division. They stink. New manager Manny Acta may get them to play some and possibly make them competitive. But the pitching staff is John Patterson (very nice pitcher) followed by a bunch of stiffs or youngsters not ready.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - 88 wins - So those who read MMM (hi Mom) know that I don't like teams coming off titles. So why did I change my mind here? By default. Don't like any teams enough to put them here. I seriously considered putting Milwaukee in here but this team will get their pitching together and the offense is fine led by this Pujols guy.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - 84 wins - Ben Sheets is the key here. I like the lineup with youngsters Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall (common name, uncommon game), Corey Hart (he'll wear his sunglasses at night games), and the supremely talented Prince Fielder. The addition of Johnny Estrada to the middle of that lineup will be big. Watch out for the Brew Crew this year. Could be Wild Card competition for the Phils.
3. Chicago Cubs - 81 wins - I've never thought you could go from a 66 win, last place team to a division winner. If you win 66 games, your pitching staff likely needs a overhaul. It's tough to overhaul pitching staffs via free agency. Ted Lilly is a nice pickup, but Jason Marquis is not. Rich Hill is a 2nd starter waiting to happen. A young phenom if you will. But it takes time. The offense is stacked but they still need a table setter. Somebody who gets on base and is a general pest so that the middle of the order isn't hitting solo homers all the time. The bullpen is also shaky as I expect Ryan Dempster to fully implode some time this year. Don't like this team.
4. Houston Astros - 80 wins - Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings I like. Lance Berkman is almost as good as Albert Pujols. Besides that I don't like much about this team. Brad Lidge is still struggling, Carlos Lee is Pat Burrell in a Dominican body, and the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte can't be good. If they get Clemens back in June, it'll be worth about 5 more wins, which would get them to 85, still not enough for the division or Wild Card.
5. Cincy Reds - 78 wins - Damn the NL is mediocre. It's tough to find much separation between these teams. There's no reason Cincy can't be in the Wild Card hunt most of the year. Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang form a very formidable 1-2 punch. After that, it's very scary. The bullpen is also in shambles here. Breakout year for Edwin Encarnacion.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - 68 wins - Ah, finally a team someone can get some sure fire wins from. This team is too young and just not good enough. It's a shame too as they have one of the best all around players in the game in Jason Bay who will just rot there for years.
NL West
1. LA Dodgers - 90 wins - Jason Schmidt, Dereck Lowe, Brad Penny, and Randy Wolf make a very good pitching staff. I love the top of the order with Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre (I expect sort of a revival year from Pierre as he's struggled the last few years). They still need one more bat, which could come in a Brad Penny trade. The bullpen is solid with Jonathan Broxton, one of the games best setup men and Takashi Saito, who was excellent as a closer last year.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 88 wins - There's not much to dislike about this team. They're ready to compete this year. Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez make a very nice pitching staff. The offense is young, deep and very talented. This is a very solid team.
3. San Diego Padres - 85 wins - I like nothing about this team yet they continue to win and they'll win again. Maybe it was Bruce Bochy. New Manager Bud Black gets a very good pitching staff in a great pitchers park. But I think there's just too many question marks this year and not every one can come up positive.
4. San Francisco Giants - 81 wins - This team should epitomize the NL. Mediocre. Very good pitching with Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. After that it's question marks everywhere. And the whole Barry Bonds fiasco has got to be a distraction, don't you think?
5. Colorado Rockies - 71 wins - Even the humidor won't stop this team from losing a lot of games. Just trade Todd Helton and start over already. Nice youngsters in Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins.
Playoff Predictions
AL - Yankees, Red Sox (WC), White Sox and Angels
NL - Mets, Phillies (WC), Cards, Dodgers
AL - I think it's between the Red Sox and Angels in the AL. The Yankees are built to win the division while the Red Sox are built for October in mind. I'd put money that Clemens is going to the Yankees, but I'm not sure that'll help. If he goes to the Red Sox this is a slam dunk pick. Nonetheless I'll pick the Red Sox this year out of the AL over the Angels.
NL - Same deal here. Mets will win the division but I think the Phils may be better suited for October. The Dodgers will pose the biggest threat, but I think I'll pick the Phillies, just because I'm on crack and to be a bit different from all the pundits who keep saying "Angels/Dodgers".
World Series - Red Sox over Phillies. Why? Well I've said all along I think Pat Gillick is positioning to get Andruw Jones (or Miguel Cabrera in 2009) in a Phillie uniform and this would be the perfect sell to ownership. Look, we made the World Series we need one more cog, a right handed bat to go along with Utley and Howard. With Andruw Jones promising to hit the free agency market, this would be the perfect story. Anyway, picking the Red Sox and Phillies in the World Series is about as asinine as you can get. I realize this. Whatever. Nobody reads this crap anyway.
PLAY BALL!!
April 2, 2007 aka OPENING DAY
www.mondaymorningmehta.com
NL Preview and Predictions - Before I start I just wanted to remind everyone I got last years World Series winner correct. It's very odd of me to give myself any credit as you all know.
NL East
1. New York Mets - 93 wins - There's 2 parts to this. 1. The Mets Jinx factor. The last time I had the Mets in this slot they went onto lose about 137 games. So why not. 2. I really think they're going to win the division. The starters has been the concern but with the loss of Duaner Sanchez the bullpen is now also a concern. Aaron Heilman is the Ryan Madson of the Mets. Good pitcher, but only a matter of time til his arm falls off. I think they'll get alot out of rookie Mike Pelfrey as well as getting some production from Oliver Perez. Glavine will give them consistency, but the big factor here is that you know they'll go and get a starter at the trade deadline if they need one and Pedro Martinez will be back by August which will be a huge lift even if Pedro isn't 100%. This team is built to win in the regular season. The number 1 seed in the NL is probable.
2. Phillies - 90 wins - There's lots to like about the Phillies. A solid, deep pitching staff. A pitcher ready to emerge as a staff ace (Brett Myers). Two proven veteran pitchers (Freddy Garcia & Jamie Moyer). A young phenom who could be an all star (Cole Hamels). The offense is led by an awesome 3-4 punch in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Mike Lieberthal and David Bell/Abraham Nunez are being replaced by Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz and Wes Helms/Abraham Nunez. All in all, that's gotta be an improvement. Pitching wins. And I like the Phils pitching, so right off the bat I'll tell you this is my Wild Card team. But there's concerns I have which is why I can't put them at Number 1 in the NL East:
A. Gillick couldn't address the Pat Burrell situation. Burrell may have a huge year just like he did in 2005, but there was no secret Pat Gillick didn't want to see him in a Phillie uniform. The trade rumors will probably heat up again next year.
B. Gillick didn't address a weak bullpen in the offseason. Antonio Alfonseca was the key pickup. They have no lefty in the pen either, which early on may cost them some games.
C. Giliick addressed the 3rd base & catching situation with Wes Helms & Rod Barajas. Yes I just said above that it's an improvement, but seriously, these guys aren't exactly studs.
The key is Cole Hamels. If he pitches like did at the end of last year, he could win 16-17 games and possibly be a Cy Young candidate. If Hamels shows his youth, this team could be in trouble.
3. Atlanta Braves - 85 wins - This is a very dangerous team. There's no reason they can't win the division again. John Smoltz is healthy and ready to pitch for a big contract. Think about this, Smoltz is making $8 million this year. There's no way Smoltz doesn't know how much money he's pitching for. I expect a monster year (but hopefully his 0-3 record and 7.71 ERA on Opening Day holds up). Enough about Smoltz, Tim Hudson is back and should be strong. The bullpen could be the best in the division. The offense is solid with the Jones boys and Jeff Francouer to go along with Brian McCann. This team really scares me and I'm afraid they'll be in one of the first two slots, I just don't know which of the Phils or Mets I could remove.
4. Florida Marlins - 77 wins - This is a tough division but in many other divisions I'd have the Marlins over .500. A very good young team with one of the games best GM's in Larry Beinfest.
5. Washington Nationals - 69 wins - This team would be a last place team unless they were in the Royals division. They stink. New manager Manny Acta may get them to play some and possibly make them competitive. But the pitching staff is John Patterson (very nice pitcher) followed by a bunch of stiffs or youngsters not ready.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - 88 wins - So those who read MMM (hi Mom) know that I don't like teams coming off titles. So why did I change my mind here? By default. Don't like any teams enough to put them here. I seriously considered putting Milwaukee in here but this team will get their pitching together and the offense is fine led by this Pujols guy.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - 84 wins - Ben Sheets is the key here. I like the lineup with youngsters Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall (common name, uncommon game), Corey Hart (he'll wear his sunglasses at night games), and the supremely talented Prince Fielder. The addition of Johnny Estrada to the middle of that lineup will be big. Watch out for the Brew Crew this year. Could be Wild Card competition for the Phils.
3. Chicago Cubs - 81 wins - I've never thought you could go from a 66 win, last place team to a division winner. If you win 66 games, your pitching staff likely needs a overhaul. It's tough to overhaul pitching staffs via free agency. Ted Lilly is a nice pickup, but Jason Marquis is not. Rich Hill is a 2nd starter waiting to happen. A young phenom if you will. But it takes time. The offense is stacked but they still need a table setter. Somebody who gets on base and is a general pest so that the middle of the order isn't hitting solo homers all the time. The bullpen is also shaky as I expect Ryan Dempster to fully implode some time this year. Don't like this team.
4. Houston Astros - 80 wins - Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings I like. Lance Berkman is almost as good as Albert Pujols. Besides that I don't like much about this team. Brad Lidge is still struggling, Carlos Lee is Pat Burrell in a Dominican body, and the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte can't be good. If they get Clemens back in June, it'll be worth about 5 more wins, which would get them to 85, still not enough for the division or Wild Card.
5. Cincy Reds - 78 wins - Damn the NL is mediocre. It's tough to find much separation between these teams. There's no reason Cincy can't be in the Wild Card hunt most of the year. Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang form a very formidable 1-2 punch. After that, it's very scary. The bullpen is also in shambles here. Breakout year for Edwin Encarnacion.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - 68 wins - Ah, finally a team someone can get some sure fire wins from. This team is too young and just not good enough. It's a shame too as they have one of the best all around players in the game in Jason Bay who will just rot there for years.
NL West
1. LA Dodgers - 90 wins - Jason Schmidt, Dereck Lowe, Brad Penny, and Randy Wolf make a very good pitching staff. I love the top of the order with Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre (I expect sort of a revival year from Pierre as he's struggled the last few years). They still need one more bat, which could come in a Brad Penny trade. The bullpen is solid with Jonathan Broxton, one of the games best setup men and Takashi Saito, who was excellent as a closer last year.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 88 wins - There's not much to dislike about this team. They're ready to compete this year. Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez make a very nice pitching staff. The offense is young, deep and very talented. This is a very solid team.
3. San Diego Padres - 85 wins - I like nothing about this team yet they continue to win and they'll win again. Maybe it was Bruce Bochy. New Manager Bud Black gets a very good pitching staff in a great pitchers park. But I think there's just too many question marks this year and not every one can come up positive.
4. San Francisco Giants - 81 wins - This team should epitomize the NL. Mediocre. Very good pitching with Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. After that it's question marks everywhere. And the whole Barry Bonds fiasco has got to be a distraction, don't you think?
5. Colorado Rockies - 71 wins - Even the humidor won't stop this team from losing a lot of games. Just trade Todd Helton and start over already. Nice youngsters in Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins.
Playoff Predictions
AL - Yankees, Red Sox (WC), White Sox and Angels
NL - Mets, Phillies (WC), Cards, Dodgers
AL - I think it's between the Red Sox and Angels in the AL. The Yankees are built to win the division while the Red Sox are built for October in mind. I'd put money that Clemens is going to the Yankees, but I'm not sure that'll help. If he goes to the Red Sox this is a slam dunk pick. Nonetheless I'll pick the Red Sox this year out of the AL over the Angels.
NL - Same deal here. Mets will win the division but I think the Phils may be better suited for October. The Dodgers will pose the biggest threat, but I think I'll pick the Phillies, just because I'm on crack and to be a bit different from all the pundits who keep saying "Angels/Dodgers".
World Series - Red Sox over Phillies. Why? Well I've said all along I think Pat Gillick is positioning to get Andruw Jones (or Miguel Cabrera in 2009) in a Phillie uniform and this would be the perfect sell to ownership. Look, we made the World Series we need one more cog, a right handed bat to go along with Utley and Howard. With Andruw Jones promising to hit the free agency market, this would be the perfect story. Anyway, picking the Red Sox and Phillies in the World Series is about as asinine as you can get. I realize this. Whatever. Nobody reads this crap anyway.
PLAY BALL!!
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 8:18 AM
1 Comments:
Preview for next week's MMM. Trop Field in Tampa is a complete disgrace.
Ed
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