Monday Morning Mehta 5/22/06

Edition # 163
May 22, 2006

***********UPDATED BASKETBALL PREVIEWS*****************

Phils/MLB

After the Phillies went 5-1 last week and cruising along, they pull a typical Phillies and lose 5 in a row to lose all of the positive press they'd earned and stumble to a 1-5 week. Hence, I'm miserable enough to write about them today.

- For all 4 people that actually reads my garbage, "It's all about pitching" has always been my mantra (I just like using that word really). Well, I decided to take a more statistical look at that this week. (This has been an argument Sammy has been having with Jody Mac on 950AM so listen for more on this today).

Anyway, I said in last years Phillies post mortem some major pearls of wisdom: "An 8 inning performance rests your bullpen during a victory. The Phillies do not have an 8 inning pitcher and just about every victory required using a setup man like Madson or Urbina. In the end, that costs them too many W's."

So I decided to put some stats to that. The internet is great, 15-30 minutes of research of you have your answers. Here's a breakdown of teams that are in contention, and the number of times their starting pitcher has gone 8 or more innings.

White Sox - 10 (including amazingly, every starter has at least one game of 8+ innings)
Reds - 9
Cards - 7
Astros - 6
Yanks - 5
Tigers - 5
D'Backs - 5
Padres - 4
Red Sox - 3
Phils - 2
Mets - 1

I'm not naive enough to think pitchers should go 9 innings in great outings. Those days are over. A great outing these days is 8 innings. That is being very fair I think. The Phillies are getting blown out by teams so far this year. Some of the teams will keep up their pace (White Sox, Cards, Astros) and hence they'll stay in contention all year and be a good team. The Phillies, will as usual, rely on their bullpen way too much and it'll be the reason they won't consistently win all year.

If you're wondering how the Mets are ahead of the Phillies with only one 8 inning performance, they have Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman who have been absolutely lights out so far this year. If those two keep it up, they'll be fine. But not many teams (in fact very few, possibly the Padres are the other team) have that luxury of a great, almost flawless 7th and 8th inning guys (the Phils certainly don't).

Now, this isn't a knock on Brett Myers or even Cole Hamels. Both have the long term ability to be very good 8 inning pitchers. But until they get to that point, the Phillies will be a 86 win team, just short of the playoffs every year.

I'm also not saying this is the end all be all of stats. Stats can be deceiving at many times. But it clearly indicates where the Phillies are lagging.

Wow. That was Pulitzer material...

Around the League

Gotta start talking Detroit Tigers when we talk AL. The first place Tigers managed by Phillies throwaway Jim Leyland are tearing up the AL. And they have great young pitching in Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander to go along with veteran Kenny Rogers.

This isn't a joke or punch line anymore. The Mets have been continually BLASTED and mocked for trading a 4th starter at best in Victor Zambrano for young phenom Scott Kazmir. It would be like if the Phillies traded Cole Hamels for Sidney Ponson. Well, anyway, Kazmir who is a mere 22 years old, is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.39 and is 4 behind the major league lead in strikeouts. He was very wild last year (think young Randy Johnson except a 10 inches shorter), but has really found his control this year. You probably won't see the guy pitch a whole game unless you have the baseball package, but trust me when I tell you the guy's got Hall of Fame stuff. And you know I never exaggerate.

I think if you beat the Cubs it should count as 1/2 of a win. They are awful. Of course the Phillies will probably play them when Derreck Lee & Mark Prior return and they're playing half decent again.

Frank, where's your comments been the last few weeks? Mets suck, the Raiders will win 5 games next year and the Blues stink. How's that?

Philly Phaf always gives me a hard time when I don't mention horse racing, so I will. An awful scene at the Preakness with Barbaro going down. Hopefully the horse will be OK but this goes to show you shouldn't slap the Philly tag on anybody/anything. It's just a jinx. Bernardini wins the 2nd leg of the triple crown and once again there will be no triple crown winner. Three weeks to the Belmont.

All 5 teams in the NL West are above .500. How did this happen? 12 NL teams are .500 or above. The NL wildcard is going to be nuts this year. I think everybody just takes turns beating on Wash, Fla, Cubs and Pirates. The Pirates should be lucky to win 50 games this year. Of course the Phils lost 2 outta three to them...

Speaking of sucky, the Royals are 10-31. That's a pace to win 40 games.

While Atlanta hasn't exactly played stiff competition, they are starting to play better baseball.
Chris Reitsma and their pen is still a major problem though.

Cool fight this weekend between AJ Pierzynski and Michael Barrett. Barrett was admittedly wrong for doing what he did but it's nice to see some life out of a struggling team.

NBA - Derreck Sura

GAME 7 PREVIEWS

Dallas v San Antonio - If not for Jason Terry's momentary lapse of reason in game 5, the Mavericks probably would have moved on already. As you would expect in a series this close, the team statistics are basically even across the board. The Spurs managed to successfully level off the differential in free throw attempts and makes over the last three games. Dallas is still out rebounding SA by 4.7 rebounds per game (40.7 to 36 rpg), but the Spurs have pulled ahead by a slim margin in overall shooting percentage (47.5% to 45.9%).

For the Mavs to come out on top tonight they must be more aggressive driving the ball to the hoop and try to get SA's big men in foul trouble. It's also very important that Dallas keeps the tempo of the game where they like it. The best way for the Mavs to accomplish this is by going on a run early in the game. It doesn't matter if it comes via fast break points or a string of quick jumpers that fall. The most important thing for them is to put pressure on the Spurs and maintain it throughout the game.

SA coach Gregg Popovich kept switching his lineups around until he found one that worked in
game 5. Replacing one of their usual starting centers with Michael Finley has allowed the Spurs to match Dallas' versatility. SA's starting lineup and rotation now resembles Phoenix's from a year ago with Tim Duncan playing the Amare Stoudemire role as lone big man. This has negated the Mavs quickness advantage on the perimeter, hence allowing the Spurs to dictate the pace of the game.

If Dirk Nowitzki plays with same fire he displayed in game 6, Dallas will surely have a chance to win. However, the Mavs are going to need at least one (either Terry or Josh Howard), and possibly two (one of Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, Marquis Daniels or Keith Van Horn), other players to step and have big games if they are going to get over the hump. If SA's gets any production at all from their bench (Brent Barry, Robert Horry & Nick Van Exel), I really like their chances.

As is always the case in game 7's, the home team has a clear advantage. I also don't know if everyone in Dallas' rotation is mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of a game 7 on the road. Being that I picked the Spurs back in October, I see no reason to waver now.
Phoenix v Clippers - As far as analysis of this series goes, I really don't have much new to say. Los Angeles is still out rebounding the Suns by 13.7 a game (50.5 to 36.8 rpg) and 4.4 on the offensive glass (13.2 to 8.8 rpg). The Clips are also still shooting a much better percentage from the field (50.7% to 45.4%). The only reasons Phoenix is still alive (besides Mike Dunleavy's coaching) is because they are making 5.1 more 3-pointers per game (10.3 to 5.2 3pm) and turning it over less (10 to 14.2 topg) then the Clips are.

The story is the same as ever for LA: Control the tempo by playing patient half court offense. One way to assure this happens is by making certain that Elton Brand touches the ball in every single half court set. That doesn't mean he has to shoot every time, or create the shot for someone else, but he has to at least see the ball. The Suns have yet to show the ability to even slow Brand down (30 ppg, 10.7 rpg & 58.5% shooting), so when EB gets the ball on the block it forces the entire Phoenix defense to react. I can not stress enough how much easier that makes it for the other Clips to score.

Suns' coach Mike D'Antoni has a big decision to make in game 7. Does he play Kurt Thomas in the biggest game of the year even though Thomas has not seen any action in three full months? If he does decide to play him, how much and in which situations? I think it's a no brainer for D'Antoni, he has to play him. I say put Kurt on Elton in the second quarter for a spell and see how it goes. If KT looks like he's in the flow, then when Mike D need to, he can use Thomas to guard Brand in the second half until Kurt fouls out. Phoenix does not need KT's offense, but his defense and rebounding could make all the difference in the world.

I know I picked LA to win the series in six before it started, but I'm leaning toward the Suns in game 7 for two reasons. The first is obviously that they are playing at home. The energy of their crowd is certainly going to give them some more pep in their step. The second is that they will be coming off three full days of rest tonight. That should be more then enough time for their tired legs to recharge, thus giving them a little more lift on their long distance shooting. That just might be too much for this group of Clips to overcome in their first post season together.
You can call this sour grapes, being a homer or whatever, but if Phil Jackson was coaching this LA team, the series would be over already.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

Detroit v Miami - It's only fitting that the two best teams in the Conference all season long play each other for the right to represent the East in the Finals. While the Pistons were busy showing some weaknesses in the last round, the Heat were sitting at home reflecting on how well they came together in beating New Jersey. That's why all of a sudden this series is looking far more interesting then it was two weeks ago.

For Miami, all of President/coach Pat Riley's off season moves were made with Detroit in mind. He wanted another player that could get his own shot. Enter Antoine Walker. He wanted more quickness and play making in the back court. Enter Jason Williams. Finally, he wanted a few more tough minded defenders. Enter James Posey and Gary Payton. Riles was looking like a fool for most of the season after breaking up a team that was "125 seconds" away from a spot in the Finals last year. Right now? Not so much. Toine has filled the role of third option to a tee in these playoffs. But what really worked great for the Heat against the Nets was when Riley went with the GP, Dwyane Wade, Posey, Udonis Haslem and Alonzo Mourning unit to close games. Those five played fantastic defense down the stretch, and Miami is going to need more of the same from that group to get by the Pistons.

Detroit certainly showed some chinks in their armor against Cleveland. The main issue was that the Pistons reverted to their old ways offensively. Gone was the free flowing push it up offense that coach Flip Saunders seemed to bring with him upon his arrival. Back was the absolutely brutal to watch, stand around, run the shot clock down and heave up a brick offense of the Larry Brown era. There's an understandable explanation, as well as some under the radar concerns. Rasheed Wallace's injured right ankle has clearly affected his play. Being that Sheed is their most versatile player on offense, it's easy to see how that could disrupt Detroit's flow. On to my theories now. Number one, something just isn't right with Chauncey Billups. He says he's not injured, but his 3-point shooting percentage is down (37.3% from 43.3%) and so is his "Mr. Big Shot" confidence. Next, and my personal favorite, is that the pressure of being the best team all season long is starting to get to them. So much so that at points against the Cavaliers they almost seemed to be splitting apart chemistry wise to me. This is something to keep a close eye on against the Heat.

Another situation to watch closely is the coaching battle. Flip and Pat have both had to deal with major expectations all year, and the weight of those expectations could very well get to them in this series. You can just see it in their faces on the sideline that these guys are griping it to tight. The games are all probably going to be close too, so designing the right plays and making the proper substitutions in crunch time will be huge. I also get the feeling from both Saunders and Riley that they'd rather be poked in the eye with a sharp stick then be second guessed by the media. Which makes the post game press conferences must see NBATV for me.

I hate to say that a series between two clubs as good as these hinges on one player, but after seeing what LeBron James did to the Pistons, I have no choice. D Wade averaged 28 points on 51.2% shooting to go along with 7 assists and 6.5 rebound in his four game against Detroit this season. Dwyane needs to try and assert himself early in every game offensively. This will keep the Pistons' defense off balance and not allow them to focus all of their attention on Shaq. From Detroit's perspective, they must find a way to continue the overall defensive form they displayed in the second half of game 7 against Cleveland.

Key match up - Ben Wallace & Shaquille O'Neal. Ah, the annual free throw brick layer convention. If any of you out there know of a more overrated player then Big Ben, please post it in the comments sections below. Wallace has been down right awful in these playoffs, averaging 4 points while shooting 38% from the floor and 23.8% from the line (makes Shaq's 39.5% look robust). Yet somehow he's 2nd team All-NBA? Whatever. It's time for Mr. Defensive Player of the Year to earn his new contract by doing an admirable job on Mr. O'Neal. As for the Diesel, he's going to have to play smart on offense foul wise because the referee's have definitely altered the way they officiate the Big Fella. Shaq has to also be very efficient on offense. What I mean by that is he has to choose his spots to score while maintaining a healthy balance of keeping his teammates involved.

Prediction - Both of these clubs have a tendency to play lazy basketball, which could lead to a less then entertaining series for viewers. Even though Miami is the deeper team, and I picked them back in October, I have to go with the Pistons. Detroit will find a way to ugly it up just enough to where their chemistry together combined with home court will carry them to the promised land. Pistons in 7.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE----DERRECK SURA

- My year and a half undefeated streak of predicting playoff series' came to screeching halt at 25 after I went 2-2 in this year's second round.


San Antonio had game 7 in hand until Manu Ginobili's ridiculous foul on Dirk Nowitzki with :21 seconds left in regulation. Manu giveth (the 3 with :32 seconds to go) and Manu taketh away (said foul and missed open lay up to end regulation).


Although it may have seemed that way, the Clippers really didn't lose their series in game 7. They lost it in game 5 when coach Mike Dunleavy inexplicably inserted Daniel Ewing into the game with :03 seconds left in the first overtime. Never mind that Ewing is a rookie that had not played all game long, but Los Angeles also had a foul to give before Raja Bell hit that equalizing 3. I don't think Dunleavy could have possibly handled that situation any worse if he tried to.


All of my grousing aside, this has easily been the best playoffs that I can remember in recent years. So far, that is. I can only hope that the next two rounds provide the same high quality of play and drama that the previous two rounds did.


WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL


Phoenix v Dallas - If you enjoy run and gun ball, then this is the series for you. Fast paced offense with little or no defense should be the norm here. Basically, the exact opposite of the East.


The Mavericks have an obvious depth advantage, but I actually think the Suns have a better starting five for this style of play. That's why the first question that needs to be answered is will Dallas coach Avery Johnson attempt to out run Phoenix in hopes that the Mavs superior depth will eventually wear down the Suns. Since there is only one day off in between each game, and knowing how Steve Nash was dragging against the Clips toward the end, that theory would seem to hold more water. However, Phoenix would like nothing better then for Dallas to try and beat them at their style. It's a dangerous line for Avery to walk, but if any team has the weapons to do it, it's the Mavs.


Dallas is the superior defensive team when they put their minds to it. So my advice to them would to focus on that end of the court, and let the scoring take care of itself. The Suns lack of rebounding was well documented by me last round, and since the Mavs just finished off out rebounding the Spurs, I give the advantage to Dallas in that area too. It's so easy to write Phoenix off on paper, but if they've shown anything thus far, it's that they are ultra-resilient and never to be counted out. They just keep running and shooting 3's and never lose faith in that game plan.


Look for the Mavs to have a possible let down in game 1. Then, depending on what style they choose to play (fast or slow), Avery will adjust accordingly. To me, that's the key. Avery just has so many more options then Suns' coach Mike D'Antoni, that it's only a matter of time before the 'Lil General finds the right combination. When he does, it will be lights out for Phoenix. No matter how long this series lasts, it promises to be wildly entertaining from start to finish.


Key match up - Shawn Marion & Josh Howard. I'm sure these two will be cross matching all over the place as the hot hand dictates, so it's possible that we hardly see them guard each other at all. They both do so many of the little things for their teams though, that it will be interesting to see who can do more. Marion gets all the pub, but as many of you out there know, Howard is one of my favorite players in the league. Which is why if they do wind up defending each other the majority of the time, I can't wait to see who gets the better of this duel.


Prediction - I know better then to overlook the Suns at this point, but even with Kurt Thomas back, I just don't think Phoenix has enough left in their tank to out gun Dallas. As long as the Mavs play some semblance of defense, they should be fine. Dallas in 6.


NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- This is how you can tell if Flyer GM Bobby Clarke understands the new NHL or if he is still stuck with his head up his.....well, in a place where a head shouldn't be. 36 year old Jeremy Roenick had an ineffective, injury riddled season for the Kings in 2005 - 2006. He started out like gang busters but ended the year with a paltry 22 points in just 58 games. Roenick is about to become an unrestricted free agent and the Kings have all but shown him the door. If Bobby Clarke ignores this and lets Roenick go and rest his weary bones in some other team's whirlpool then he gets it. If Clarke signs Roenick then it's hopeless and the Flyers will never win a Cup with him in command. We should have an answer by August 1st.

- "The Hockey News" came out with their annual NHL draft preview and it was notable for 2 reasons. First of all, the draftees ready to hit the NHL were all born in 1987 which I found to be incredibly depressing. And second, the number 1 and number 2 prospects are both Americans and the number 5 ranked prospect is Swedish and the number 6 prospect is also American. So depending on what a teams needs it could possibly be the 4th or 5th pick in the draft before a Canadian player is taken. That would be incredible.

- I know everyone is still reeling from seeing Phillie second baseman Chase Utley's plain Jane, I think I could get her, girlfriend on Comcast last week but there's still hockey to be discussed. Come on Chase, you can do better then that, you're a professional athlete for crying out loud!! At any rate the Sabres beat the Canes last Saturday 3 - 2. It wasn't the up and down affair I expected but it was the usual penalty laddened game that a lot of NHL games have become. And by the way, Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller is a stud. And word on the street was that he was pissed that he didn't get picked for the American Olympic team. I think the kid may have had a point.

- Talk about suffering for your art, I stayed up last night to watch game 2 of the western conference finals so I could write about it here. I was so tired I could barely keep my eyes open and on top of it the game was so boring. By the way, Edmonton won the game 3 - 1 and lead the series 2 games to 0. Both games in the series have been low scoring yawners, both ended 3 - 1 with an empty net goal. The players have been complaining about the ice in Anaheim so maybe that's the reason for the slow play, I don't know. All I know is both of these games were played primarily in the neutral zone, wasn't that supposed to stop when the new rules came around? Now the series moves to Edmonton, hopefully the excitement level will pick up once they get up north.

***Sopranos Alert***

- "You got fired from Blockbuster!?!? They got rhesus monkeys working there as managers!!" Another mediocre "Sopranos", I'll give it a B-. The Paris stuff just droned on and on and on. Every time I saw the show going to Paris I was switching to the Oilers/Ducks game and "Hogan Knows Best". It was good to see Vito finally get killed but I was secretly wishing that AJ would have been the one getting beaten to death in that hotel room. Sometimes when I'm watching "The Sopranos" I watch the clock because I don't want it to end, that hasn't happened in a while. One more to go before the season is over, then the last 8 episodes of the series and that will be that.