Monday Morning Mehta 3/26/07

Edition # 199
March 26, 2007

www.mondaymorningmehta.com

AL Preview this week!
NL Preview and Playoff Predictions next week!! WOW. OPENING DAY 7 days away!

AL Preview
AL EAST

1. New York Yankees - Not that this is a shock to anyone, but a not so wise man once said "Anyone who says anybody but the Braves are going to win the NL East is thinking way too much". Same concept applies to the Yankees. You know they're going to do what it takes and more to get to the playoffs. The offense is stacked beyond belief. The pitching will be improved with Andy Pettitte returning to pinstripes, and the bullpen is solid with Mariano Rivera showing no signs yet of slowing down. Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa are huge question marks and I don't expect Chien-Ming Wang to win 19 games again, but as usual they'll probably get a pitcher or two at the trade deadline that gets em into October.

2. Boston Red Sox - Apply same theory here. It's nice to put the Blue Jays in this slot (especially since the Jays did finish 2nd last year), but I really like the Red Sox pitching this year for some reason. Curt Schilling ( www.38pitches.com is way too funny) is in his contract year, and even at age 40 I think he'll have a huge year so that he can have one final big payday. Josh Beckett pitched very inconsistently in his first year in the AL, but he's healthy (which for him means he doesn't get blisters on his fingers) and I expect him to have a very good year. Diazakeanosazaka Matsukukimotors may be the best pitcher on the staff and I would not be surprised if he competed for a Cy Young award this year. The offense? When you have David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, driving in runs isn't a concern. I don't like J.D. Drew's signing but as a fifth hitter, he'll be great. Reigning MVJP (Most Valuable Jewish Player) Kevin Youkilis is only going to get better and really helps drives the offense. By the way, MVJP is a REAL award. Shawn Green has won it like 34 times.

3. Toronto Blue Jays - I might just keep the AL East the same the next 10 years. In ANY other division, a team with Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett would be my favorites to win the division. Sorry Toronto, no playoffs again this year...

4. Baltimore Orioles - It's a shame because this team has a ton of young pitching talent but the front office is just a mess. They can be spoilers in this division.

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Another team with some great young players (Scott Kazmir, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, and the third baseman from Japan Akinori Iwamura). It's so bad for the D-Rays that they'll be playing a series vs. Texas in May at Disney's Wide World of Sports which holds about 10,000 people.

AL Central
Note: This is by far the craziest division to have to predict. You have Detroit the reigning champs, Minnesota who is always right there, the White Sox just 18 months removed from winning the World Series, and the up and coming darling Cleveland Indians. To break this down scientifically to officially name a division winner, we're employing the "ex-Phillie" theory.

1. Chicago White Sox - 1 ex-Phillie in a key role (Jim Thome). You may say they have Gavin Floyd, but Floyd was beat out by John Denks for the 5th starters spot, so kudos for the White Sox for not letting an ex-Philly infect their rotation. And Thome was a very good ex-Phillie so he really doesn't count.

2. Detroit Tigers - 3 ex-Phillies in key roles (Polanco, Todd Jones, and Jose Mesa). Now Polanco was a good ex-Phillie so that leaves the number at two. Having 2 ex-Phillies as your closer and bullpen help is scary, but the Tigers will use Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney as closer if Jones falters so I give them the nod here.

3. Minnesota Twins - 2 ex Phillies but in very key roles. Carlos Silva is their 2nd starter. You wanna talk dropoff it doesn't get any worse than Johan Santana followed by Carlos Silva. Nick Punto is the starting 3rd baseman. Now these guys have been admirable for the most part, but Silva had close to a 6 ERA last year and the wheels are falling off in the spring, so maybe they'll be down to one ex-Phillie which will help.

4. Cleveland Indians - 4 ex-Phillies in key roles. A David Delucci/Jason Michaels platoon. Paul Byrd in the rotation. And Roberto Hernandez as the top set up man. Recipe = disaster.

5. Kansas City Royals - Just cut and paste this every year. When you start spending money finally, and decide to make it $55 million for Gil Meche, one has to wonder if they'd be better off spending the money on developing a farm system.

AL West
As always, a TIGHT division. 12 games could separate top to bottom

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - This team got their shiest together after the all star break last year and probably would've won the AL if the season was extended by a month. The season isn't starting out good either, with Chone Figgins out a month and Jered Weaver being banged up. The combination of youth (Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman) and experience (Vlad, Garrett Anderson) is awesome on offense. The pitching provides the same combination. Just really like this team a lot over 162 games, as well as in the postseason.

2. Texas Rangers - The ex-Philly theory-o-meter would go off the charts here. The starting rotation consists of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Robinson Tejeda, and possibly Bruce Chen. To boot, Kenny Lofton and Marlon Byrd are outfielders (possibly a platoon). They've got a shot to be good because of their offense and solid bullpen, but over 162 games those 8-6 games take a toll on you.

3. Oakland A's - It's hard to put the ever consistent A's down to third place, but as I said above, this team can still finish above .500. I really like Rich Harden and Dan Haren and the A's have pitching talent all over the league now. You can't question their minor league system and shouldn't be surprised if even after losing Barry Zito they still compete at a high level.

4. Seattle Mariners - They're trying. They're trying real hard. But Ichiro is a free agent at the end of this year and I just see way too many question marks (including manager) for this team to win the division.

NEXT WEEK: PLAYOFFS!!

March Madness Recap

The Final Four is set as Florida and Ohio St survive as number 1 seeds while UCLA and Georgetown make it as 2 seeds. The lack of upsets this year made having all four final four teams right not exactly rocket science. Many people have 3 out of four. I got two out of four right (UCLA & G-Town). Clearly you won't see my working at NASA anytime soon (although the NASA name isn't exactly as great these days).

Anyway, I still think UCLA is going to win it all and I've seen nothing the last 2 weeks to get me off of that. They play incredible defense and I'm not sure teams can prepare for what they're about to see.

As I said last week, the last few years the Final Four games haven't exactly been stellar games. With four stud programs this year, I think we're in for a Final Four for the ages.

NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- There will be no NHL Week in Review next week because I'll be in Tampa covering the Mets vs. Devil Rays game. The April 9th MMM will be my playoff preview. I saw a guy that compared certain NCAA tournament teams and their goodness or badness as it relates to certain Poison songs. So I'm going to sort of rip off that idea and relate NHL playoff teams to 80's hair metal bands. It should be interesting.

- The world is filled with questions. For example if you're in the crowd of "Dancing With The Stars" and Heather Mills' leg flies off and you catch it are you allowed to keep it like a foul ball? In "Ace Ventura : Pet Detective" how come when they show Ray Finkle's infamous missed kick, the one referee signals wide left but then they immediately show another referee signaling wide right? Didn't Nostradamus predict that the end of the world would come soon after a long haired, effeminate, untalented, brown man was crowned the most important person in show business after he wins a TV singing contest? And finally...how on Earth did the Florida Panthers trade Roberto Loungo to the Canucks for Todd Bertuzzi? That deal was so dreadful that it literally may cause ex-Panther GM Mike Keenan to never get another job in hockey for the rest of his life. In Vancouver Bertuzzi had legal trouble, back problems, not being effective problems, having a huge contract problems, and was starting to become the scourge of a town that has little else to talk about beside hockey, killer whales, and strip clubs. The Canucks probably would have traded Bertuzzi to a team that just agreed to pay his salary. I would have loved to have heard when Mike Keenan proposed that deal to Canuck GM David Nonis, "Dave, Mike Keenan here. We would like to trade you Roberto Loungo for Todd Bertuzzi". "You know Mike, let me put you on hold for a second". (Nonis puts Keenan on hold and proceeds to start screaming like the kid in that commercial that got the Nintendo 64 for Christmas. Then he collects himself, picks up the phone) "Well Mike, Bertuzzi has been a huge part of our team and I would hate to see him go (snickers under his breath) but OK, let's do the deal". All Loungo is doing is playing lights out for the Canucks. Lights BLEEPING out!! He has 42 wins, tied for the league lead, is a strong MVP candidate, and is still a few weeks away from his 28th birthday. Bertuzzi is 32 years old, played 7 games total for the Panthers with all of 1 goal and is currently trying to get well in the Red Wings whirlpool. If the Canucks win the Stanley Cup, which they just might, they should put Mike Keenan's name on it too.

- The NHL Players Association is in complete disarray. The NHLPA leader Ted Saskin rose to power through a coup after former leader Bob Goodenow had the players sit out a season over a salary cap and then had them sign a deal with a cap anyway. When Saskin became leader players like Eric Lindros, Chris Chelios, Mathieu Schneider, and a few no names filed a lawsuit because they said Saskin wasn't properly voted in. Now it's coming out that certain player agents, prompted by the league and possibly Saskin, were encouraging their clients to call the union bosses and make demands to move along the negotiations that cancelled the 2004 - 2005 season. Also the NHLPA has this infamous "players only" website were players can hear about negotiations and read about league news. There's a belief that somehow Saskin may have had a way to read all the players private e-mails. So Saskin was put on paid leave and the players have hired a Canadian lawyer to do an independent investigation of Saskin to find out what he was up to. No matter what happens this is a mess.

- So the Flyers are dying to get talks started on a new contract with goalie Martin Biron. It seems like a no brainer because the Flyers want Biron and Biron wants to stay. But there is a little matter of Biron's wife. Biron's wife has laid down the law Judge Dred style and told Martin that he is not to speak to the Flyers about a contract unless she approves of our fair city. If she approves of Philadelphia then, and only then, will Biron be allowed to speak with the Flyers. (Sounds of whips cracking playing in the background)

- Flyer Todd Fedoruk got knocked out by Ranger Colton Orr 21 seconds into last Wednesday's game. Orr nailed Fedoruk flush on the side of the mellon with a devastating over hand right. The Flyers used their teammate laying motionless on the ice to rally and inspire them in the game.....for 7 about seconds. After that the Flyers were destroyed 5 - 0. But here's the question about Fedoruk, a hockey player who has made a living as an unskilled goon for the last 7 seasons. Fedoruk has been knocked out twice this year, once he was knocked out cold and once he was hit so hard that his face required metal plates. When you see Fedoruk interviewed you quickly notice that he is missing virtually every tooth in his head. So Fedoruk can't score, he's shaky defensively, and he has been a human punching bag since entering the league. So he's still drawing a paycheck....why?

- Todd Fedoruk getting knocked into next Tuesday was a microcosm of the entire Flyers season. The season is going on with the usual timid perseverance and each game is one metaphorical, one punch knock out after another. Before I forget, the Flyers now have 44 losses but the damn Sixers keep winning and threatening to screw up the most losses by an NHL and NBA team from the same city in the same year record. The Sixers have 42 losses which brings the total to 86, 17 losses away from the record of 103. So the Flyers lost 4 - 1 to the Panthers in a game that was tougher to watch then Sanjaya singing "You Really Got Me". In fact when I was watching the Flyers play the Panthers I was crying like that little girl on "American Idol" too...and it wasn't because I thought the Flyers were doing a great job. The Flyers also lost 4 - 3 to the Islanders. But the game I want to talk about was the 5 - 0 loss to the Rangers that included the Fedoruk knock out. By the way, the Rangers game had a controversial disallowed goal so the score really should have been 6 - 0. The Fedoruk knock out happened 20 seconds into the game so the Flyers had all game long to rally around their fallen comrade, all game long to exact revenge, all game long to show the hockey world that they have some sort of heart and pride. What followed was one of the most embarrassing efforts I've ever seen by a hockey team, an effort that made the 9 - 0 loss earlier this year to the Sabres look Balboa-esque. The Rangers toyed with the Flyers. Mildly skilled Rangers goon Sean Avery had 2 goals and the Flyers had 17 pathetic shots on goal, not one shot required even a moderately tough save. The Rangers, particularly Jaromir Jagr, were laughing and goofing off on the bench, and the Flyers looked like one of the kids from "Juvies" after a month in the hole. How ironic that Ken Hitchcock was fired after that bad Sabres loss but after the Rangers mess the media said nothing about coach John Stevens. Steven should have been in the locker room throwing chairs, chalk, towels, whatever, and screaming at the top of his lungs. But it was business as usual in Flyer land. I can not wait until this season is over.