Monday Morning Mehta 5/1/06
Edition # 160
May 1, 2006
www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com
MLB/Phils
A typical Phillies week to cap a typical Phillies month, as they go 3-4 on the week and finish 10-14 in the month of April for the second straight year. So what's wrong? What isn't?
First and foremost, it's the pitching. I don't want to hear about how solid the pitchers have been all year. Going 6 innings isn't a good start. If that's what you get from your 4th and 5th starter, you are content with that. But when every one of your pitchers goes 6, and going 7 is when you are ecstatic, it's a recipe for bullpen disaster. You just cannot rely on your pen that much. A. They'll blow games for you. B. You'll leave the arms for dead by August (see Ryan Madson last year).
Chase Utley has been a problem. While I doubt Chase will be a problem in the long run, his play this year has been pretty pitiful, minus about 4 games.
Pat Burrell hasn't been good. Stats can be deceiving and Pat's numbers prove this. He's hitting .300 and among the league leaders with 21 RBI's. So what's the problem? Last year when Pat Burrell finished second in the league in RBI's he finished with a .313 average with runners in scoring position. This year, he's .212 and was under .200 until yesterday. Being that Burrell always hits a batter or two after Bobby Abreu, who generally gets on base at a .410-.430 clip, Burrell always has RBI opportunities. Just to show you, Burrell has 38 plate appearances with RISP, while Ryan Howard has only 23 (Howard's only hitting .222 himself). Burrell continues to be a big key to the Phillies offense. The Phillies best hitter with RISP? Bobby Abreu at .444 with 18 official at bats (26 plate appearances - 8 walks). Those who want Abreu leading off keep forgetting that Abreu can't knock himself in after drawing a walk.
Jimmy Rollins is his typical self. After sporting a .188 average in August of last year, he went on a tear in September. In the offseason, all Phillies fans had hoped Jimmy had "gotten it". Well, after a decent week or so, Jimmy went onto hit 5 for his last 34 in the homestand and is back to his usual .320-.330 OB% self. That just doesn't cut it at the top of the order.
Lefties are causing the Phillies middle of the order huge problems. Even more reason Pat Burrell is so important to the lineup's success. Abreu is a pathetic .160 vs. lefties.
It's getting awfully close to Manuel being fired. I'm sure Gillick wants to be fair, but one has to wonder about his Seattle connections to Lou Pinella, who is currently collecting unemployment (well, I doubt he's that desperate, but you get the point)
Most important thing this week: Barry Bonds comes to Philly. Bonds is currenly at 711 homers, and if he gets hot this week, he could be staring at breaking Babe Ruth's number in Philadelphia over the weekend.
Around the League
For all those Yankee haters, don't look at the standings this morning. The Yankees are atop the AL East once again. The good news is the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is renewed tonight as the Yanks face the Sox in Johnny Damon's return to Fenway.
You can't take away too much from early season series, but the White Sox sweep over the Angels in Anaheim was impressive.
The Reds are the story of the NL as they're tied for the best NL record with the Cards. Their pitching has been excellent as Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo is a combined 8-1. It's going to be tough for each of those guys to win 18-20 games - which it probably will take for them to stay with the Cards, but staying in the wild card race the whole year certainly isn't out of the question.
Speaking of the Cards, keep an eye on Elizardo Ramirez. He really shouldn't be any good, but the Phillies traded him in the Corey Lidle trade, so don't be surprised if he suddenly pitches like Pedro Martinez.
The NFL Draft
I'm really amazed at how big the NFL Draft has gotten in the last few years. That being said, it's really funny how bad these pre draft pundits are. All the teams throw out so much smokescreen, it's impossible to know who is going to draft whom.
As for the Eagles draft, I'm not going to be one of these idiotic people who grade the draft the next day or fans that judge the draft the next day. Just think about it, back when the Eagles took Donovan McNabb the Eagles fans infamously booed like crazy up in New York. Member the ESPN cameras on "Sean Young from the Dirty 30" as he's screaming and yelling upset at the pick? Well, how many Eagles fans want Ricky Williams now? Or Tim Couch, Akili Smith, etc.?
Or what about when the Eagles inexplicably took Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and Michael Lewis with their first three picks with Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent playing like Pro Bowlers? Eagles fans were perplexed.
But they were besides themselves with joy when the Eagles took flashy wideout Freddie Mitchell. They ran to the stores to get their 84 jerseys. How'd that turn out?
All that tells me, is that these drafts can't be judged until years afterward. I'm done judging drafts the day or even year after. I'll wait a couple years, thanks. People rave about Denver's draft, but what if Jay Cutley is more like Heath Shuler than Ben Roethlisberger?
Either way, the Eagles are still going to have a gaping hole at WR this year. Javon Walker would've been a nice fit, and I'd still like to see them go after Ashlie Lelie, but I'm not sure if he's available anymore.
NBA - Derreck Sura
EAST
Indiana v New Jersey - Tied 2-2. This series has proven to be as tough and evenly matched as a I thought it would be. Most of the statistics are even through four games, save three. The Pacers have been better on the boards 39.3 to 33.8 rpg for +5.5 rebounding differential. Indy is also shooting three's at a much higher clip (35.6% to 23.7%). There's no doubt that rebounds and 3-point shooting are what has kept the Pacers in this thing so far. The Nets have the lead in the turnover department though (8.8 to 16.5 topg). NJ's +7.7 turnover differential is probably canceling out Indy's advantage in the other two categories, hence why the series is now best of three.
Jermaine O'Neal is playing very well for the Pacers, but Peja Stojakovic needs to suck it up. Peja missed games two and four with a left knee injury. This injury was supposedly bothering Stojakovic throughout the season, but somehow he managed to not a miss a game until the playoffs. Is anybody buying this? Hey Peja, take the skirt off and get in there already.
Second year big man Nenad Krstic is having his coming out party for the Nets. Krstic has upped his regular season averages in points (13.5 to 18 ppg), shooting (50.7% to 54.7%) and rebounding (6.4 to 7 rpg). Nenad's increased confidence in his low post scoring gives NJ's half court offense an added dimension that should help them if they advance.
I still think the Nets are the better team. I see this one going the full seven games with home court being the difference for NJ.
Milwaukee v Detroit - Pistons lead 2-1. Losing game three by 20 points was a wake up call for Detroit. It was pretty obvious that the Piston players thought they could just coast after winning the first two games rather easily. The Bucks deserve credit for not folding and giving their best effort of the series when they needed it most. That said, this series is over in five.
Detroit has to want to finish Milwaukee off ASAP now because of Richard Hamilton's left ankle injury. The only thing that can make the Eastern Conference playoffs competitive is an injury to one of the Piston starters. I know the word from Detroit is that Rip's injury isn't serious, but I'm not so sure. He's certainly not moving as well, and the size of the ice pack he had on the sidelines Saturday seemed a little excessive for a "minor" ankle sprain.
Chicago v Miami - Tied 2-2. Believe it or not, this series has progressed pretty much like I thought it would. I suspected the Bulls would be in every game, but I didn't think Chicago would be able to win more then one game in the closing moments. Give the Bulls credit for not backing down and continually outworking the Heat.
It should come as no surprise that Miami's lackluster play has continued on into the post season (they better flip their "on switch" before it's too late). I still say the Heat are the more talented team. The thing is, they know it too. Therein lies the problem. Miami has fallen into the trap of accepting Shaquille O'Neal's mantra of "We'll be fine in the playoffs." I assume the Heat now understand that they are going to have to play hard for the full for 48 minutes because Chicago never gives up. I expect Miami to win the next two games, but they are going to have a lot trouble in the next round because the team they face will be far more talented then the Bulls are.
Washington v Cleveland - Tied 2-2. This is yet another series that is proceeding just as I expected. Although I will admit that the Wizards have looked like the better team for the most part. LeBron James has been great in his first post season and Gilbert Arenas has been his usual unstoppable self. That's why I find the whole grousing about Bron getting calls thing a little silly.
Look, this is the NBA, and stars get calls. I understand that coaches use the media to get their message across to the referees any way they can. But for Arenas, of all people, to say that James is getting preferential treatment is ridiculous. I watch a lot of games throughout the year, and Gil is right up there with the best of them when it comes to the benefit of the doubt or reputation fouls. Besides, look at the numbers. Washington has been called for 83 fouls and shot 138 free throws. Compared to the Cavaliers being called for 105 fouls and shooting 103 free throws. Even further, GA has been to the line 52 times so far and Bron only 42.
If Cleveland would involve Zydrunas Ilgauskas more I think they would win this series going away. Big Z averaged 11.4 shots a game in the regular season. In the playoffs his attempts are down to 9.8 per game. I know that Ilgauskas is not a star, but he has a very nice post up game when given the opportunity. Z is the one place the Cavs have a clear advantage, and I hope coach Mike Brown realizes that before it's too late.
Neither of these clubs play good defense, use their bench, or are particularly well coached. For these reasons I anticipate that the rest of the games will be close back and forth affairs that come down to who makes more clutch shots in the fourth quarter. If this series does wind up going the distance, I still can't see LeBron losing at home in game seven.
WEST
Memphis v Dallas - Mavericks lead 3-0. When Dirk Nowitzki hit a 3-pointer with 15.7 seconds left to tie game three, and Chucky Atkins followed that up by missing a wide open lay-up at the buzzer, this series was officially over. I suppose the Grizzlies could win game four to save some face, but I highly doubt it. The two reasons Memphis has failed to get it done are simple: Mike Miller and Pau Gasol.
Fresh off winning the Sixth Man of the Year award, Miller has totally disappeared in the playoffs. He went from averaging 13.7 points and shooting 40.7% from three in the regular season, to 8 points and 16.7% from distance in this series (his assists, rebounds and overall shooting percentage are also down).
In .5 more minutes per game Gasol is averaging less points (18.7 from 20.4 ppg), rebounds (7 from 8.9 rpg), blocks (1.67 from 1.91 bpg), assists (4 from 4.6 apg) and shooting a lower percentage (41.7% from 50.3%). Pau's slippage is much worse in my opinion because he has also shown that he is not a closer. "Spanish Fly" is a great regular season performer, but much like Chris Webber or Kevin Garnett before him, Gasol's personality is such that he lacks the makeup to take over games when his team needs him to the most.
Clippers v Denver - Los Angeles leads 3-1. Once Kenyon Martin was suspended indefinitely for "conduct detrimental to the team" after his game two halftime rant against coach George Karl and several teammates alike, this series was over. K-Mart seems to be mad at the world because he's not the same player since his left knee never healed properly after microfracture surgery. Now he's going to file a formal grievance against the Nuggets? If there was any doubt remaining that Martin would be traded this summer, that grievance should settle it.
Carmelo Anthony's production has fallen off in the playoffs for third consecutive post season. My take is that Melo reverts back to some old bad habits and starts trying to force the action when the games become more important. The flip side to that could be that Denver has never had the perimeter shooters (and still doesn't) to exploit the double teams that Anthony regularly draws. Whatever the reason, nothing can change the fact that Melo went from averaging 26.5 points on 48.1% shooting this year to 20.5 points on 33.3% shooting in the playoffs. (In his rookie year he went from 21 ppg on 42.6% shooting to 15 ppg and 32.8%. His second year wasn't as bad, but he still dropped from 20.8 ppg and 43.1% to 19.2 ppg and 42.2%.)
Lakers v Phoenix - Los Angeles leads 3-1. I'm always tooting my horn when I am right, so it's only fair to say I was dead wrong about this series. In my own defense though, I have not seen THIS Laker team play all year long (I saw at least 70 of their regular season games too). Sharing the ball? Making good decisions? The lion's share of the credit for this goes to LA coach Phil Jackson and his game plan. The Lakers have been successful controlling the tempo with their deliberate slow down offense. LA has accomplished a few things by executing Phil's strategy to a tee.
First and foremost the Suns have not been able to take advantage of the Lakers' poor transition defense. This in turn has exploited Phoenix' major weakness, their half court offense. Next, Shawn Marion is far less effective when the pace of the game slows down. The "Matrix" excels in the up and down game. However, in half court sets he looks lost and really doesn't have a go to move to fall back on. Of course, a lot of how bad Marion looks could be because Lamar Odom is defending him. LO has continued his exceptional play and has won the battle of second fiddles so far.
What do the Kobe Bryant haters have to say about this situation? Not shooting enough. To passive. Trying to prove a point. Whatever the case may be, Bryant is clearly making his teammates better right now. He's actually doing a better job then Steve Nash is too. The defending MVP has had little or no help thus far. Which has forced him to try and take matters into his own hands. That is not Steve's game (it's Kobe's), but I blame coach Mike D'Antoni more then Nash.
I usually watch the post game press conferences on NBATV, and D'Antoni always has one of two responses to why his club is struggling. "We have to run, because that's who we are." or "We are playing tight out there and just need to relax." Umm, OK coach, but do you have another plan if that doesn't work? Naturally, no one ever asks that, but I think it's exceedingly obvious that Phil has coached circles around Mike in this series.
It's poetic justice that my two year first round undefeated streak should be ended by my favorite team. That said, however unlikely it may seem at this point, if any squad can run off three straight victories, it is these Suns.
Sacramento v San Antonio - Tied 2-2. The Spurs are a bounce of the ball on a Brent Barry three away from being down 3-1. Ever since Ron Artest's arrival the Kings have been playing with a new found toughness. Sacto has been able to muscle SA around pretty much at will by posting up Artest, Bonzi Wells and even Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich and his staff are going to have come up with a new plan to defend Ron-Ron and Bonzi on the block, because the mismatches those two are creating right now are killing SA.
Speaking of defense, no one is currently flexing more muscle then Artest is. Ronnie has effectively taken Manu Ginobili out of the three games he has played in. Not including game two, Manu has averaged 7 points on 39.1% shooting, which is way down from his season averages of 15.1 ppg and 46.2%. Ginobili's 3-point shooting is also down from his regular season mark (21.4% from 38.2%). It's more then just the numbers though, the look an Manu's face has been one of utter frustration throughout the series. Ginobili has to snap out of it and find a way to take advantage of his quickness and not let Artest body him up so much.
As this series moves on to the best of three, it's definitely up for grabs. For the Kings to advance they are going to need to Mike Bibby and Brad Miller to start consistently making open shots. Bibby's field goal percentage has dropped from 43.2% to 35.5% in the playoffs and Miller's from 49.5% to 43.2%. The Spurs will be in trouble if those two find the range. As weird as this may sound, SA needs more out of Tim Duncan. Timmy's numbers haven't really fallen off, but he's just not exuding that air of confidence he usually does. I know about the plantar fasciitis in his right foot, but truly great players always seem to find a way when their team needs them to.
The Spurs look eminently beatable at this point. I think they'll eventually handle Sacto and move on, but they may not even be the favorites in the next round.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
Notes from the playoffs.....The Rangers were humanly destroyed by the Devils, getting swept in the series and scoring a grand total of 4 goals in the 4 games. That series for the Rangers my friends, was UGLY.....After a one game scare the Sens dispatched the Lightning 4 games to 1 to move on. I wasn't sold on the ability of the Sens to beat the Bolts but when I saw the Bolts were going to start ex-Flyers stiff Sean Burke in goal I figured it was a done deal. I actually admire Sean Burke. The guy parlayed one big playoff run for the Devils in like 1988 into a career that's still going on. If there was a nuclear holocaust the only things to survive would be cockroaches and Sean Burke wearing an NHL sweater.....The Oilers are leading the Red Wings 3 games to 2. Oiler defenseman Chris Pronger has been dominant and is the leading candidate for the "Claude Lemieux Award" given annually to the player that sleepwalks through the regular season and turns it on for the playoffs.....The Flames are leading the Ducks 3 games to 2 with Jarome Iginla scoring 5 goals in the series so far. Even Tony Amonte is playing well for the Flames. The Ducks are playing musical goalies which is always the kiss of death.....I predicted the Stars would be the dark horse in the playoffs and of course they choked like dogs. The Lanche won the series 4 games to 1 with goalie Jose Theodore playing out of his mind. If the Lanche make a run and Theodore plays big then GM Pierre Lacroix is going to look like a genius because everyone in the league thought that trade was nuts.....Carolina is winning their series against the Habs 3 games to 2 and have regained home ice advantage. Rod Brind'Amour is having a big series. And by the way, I just read that Brind'Amour won more then 300 more face offs then the second place guy (I'm not sure who that is) for the 2005 - 2006 season. The guy is a monster.....The Sharks beat the Preds in 5 games and are slowly gaining momentum as a trendy pick for the Stanley Cup. It's a shame about the Preds because they have a nice team but they couldn't over come losing goalie Tomas Vokoun.
So the Flyers are down 3 games to 2 to the Sabres and have about as much chance of winning this series as Tori Spelling has of winning an Oscar. And even if they won the series by some miraculous act of God the Sens or Devils would take care of them later. I attended the game last Friday, a few observations.....first of all I liked how the Flyers showed the video clip of Scott Norwood missing the Super Bowl field goal right as the game was starting. I thought that was clever. The game was won by the Flyers but when I watched the Flyers in person it was crystal clear that the Flyers are a painfully slow team. And the two biggest culprits are Mike Rathje and Derian Hatcher. The entire game they're just chasing the play. And the worst part is they're going to be around for a while. The Flyers need to totally revamp not only their roster but they have to revamp their thinking.
May 1, 2006
www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com
MLB/Phils
A typical Phillies week to cap a typical Phillies month, as they go 3-4 on the week and finish 10-14 in the month of April for the second straight year. So what's wrong? What isn't?
First and foremost, it's the pitching. I don't want to hear about how solid the pitchers have been all year. Going 6 innings isn't a good start. If that's what you get from your 4th and 5th starter, you are content with that. But when every one of your pitchers goes 6, and going 7 is when you are ecstatic, it's a recipe for bullpen disaster. You just cannot rely on your pen that much. A. They'll blow games for you. B. You'll leave the arms for dead by August (see Ryan Madson last year).
Chase Utley has been a problem. While I doubt Chase will be a problem in the long run, his play this year has been pretty pitiful, minus about 4 games.
Pat Burrell hasn't been good. Stats can be deceiving and Pat's numbers prove this. He's hitting .300 and among the league leaders with 21 RBI's. So what's the problem? Last year when Pat Burrell finished second in the league in RBI's he finished with a .313 average with runners in scoring position. This year, he's .212 and was under .200 until yesterday. Being that Burrell always hits a batter or two after Bobby Abreu, who generally gets on base at a .410-.430 clip, Burrell always has RBI opportunities. Just to show you, Burrell has 38 plate appearances with RISP, while Ryan Howard has only 23 (Howard's only hitting .222 himself). Burrell continues to be a big key to the Phillies offense. The Phillies best hitter with RISP? Bobby Abreu at .444 with 18 official at bats (26 plate appearances - 8 walks). Those who want Abreu leading off keep forgetting that Abreu can't knock himself in after drawing a walk.
Jimmy Rollins is his typical self. After sporting a .188 average in August of last year, he went on a tear in September. In the offseason, all Phillies fans had hoped Jimmy had "gotten it". Well, after a decent week or so, Jimmy went onto hit 5 for his last 34 in the homestand and is back to his usual .320-.330 OB% self. That just doesn't cut it at the top of the order.
Lefties are causing the Phillies middle of the order huge problems. Even more reason Pat Burrell is so important to the lineup's success. Abreu is a pathetic .160 vs. lefties.
It's getting awfully close to Manuel being fired. I'm sure Gillick wants to be fair, but one has to wonder about his Seattle connections to Lou Pinella, who is currently collecting unemployment (well, I doubt he's that desperate, but you get the point)
Most important thing this week: Barry Bonds comes to Philly. Bonds is currenly at 711 homers, and if he gets hot this week, he could be staring at breaking Babe Ruth's number in Philadelphia over the weekend.
Around the League
For all those Yankee haters, don't look at the standings this morning. The Yankees are atop the AL East once again. The good news is the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is renewed tonight as the Yanks face the Sox in Johnny Damon's return to Fenway.
You can't take away too much from early season series, but the White Sox sweep over the Angels in Anaheim was impressive.
The Reds are the story of the NL as they're tied for the best NL record with the Cards. Their pitching has been excellent as Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo is a combined 8-1. It's going to be tough for each of those guys to win 18-20 games - which it probably will take for them to stay with the Cards, but staying in the wild card race the whole year certainly isn't out of the question.
Speaking of the Cards, keep an eye on Elizardo Ramirez. He really shouldn't be any good, but the Phillies traded him in the Corey Lidle trade, so don't be surprised if he suddenly pitches like Pedro Martinez.
The NFL Draft
I'm really amazed at how big the NFL Draft has gotten in the last few years. That being said, it's really funny how bad these pre draft pundits are. All the teams throw out so much smokescreen, it's impossible to know who is going to draft whom.
As for the Eagles draft, I'm not going to be one of these idiotic people who grade the draft the next day or fans that judge the draft the next day. Just think about it, back when the Eagles took Donovan McNabb the Eagles fans infamously booed like crazy up in New York. Member the ESPN cameras on "Sean Young from the Dirty 30" as he's screaming and yelling upset at the pick? Well, how many Eagles fans want Ricky Williams now? Or Tim Couch, Akili Smith, etc.?
Or what about when the Eagles inexplicably took Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and Michael Lewis with their first three picks with Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent playing like Pro Bowlers? Eagles fans were perplexed.
But they were besides themselves with joy when the Eagles took flashy wideout Freddie Mitchell. They ran to the stores to get their 84 jerseys. How'd that turn out?
All that tells me, is that these drafts can't be judged until years afterward. I'm done judging drafts the day or even year after. I'll wait a couple years, thanks. People rave about Denver's draft, but what if Jay Cutley is more like Heath Shuler than Ben Roethlisberger?
Either way, the Eagles are still going to have a gaping hole at WR this year. Javon Walker would've been a nice fit, and I'd still like to see them go after Ashlie Lelie, but I'm not sure if he's available anymore.
NBA - Derreck Sura
EAST
Indiana v New Jersey - Tied 2-2. This series has proven to be as tough and evenly matched as a I thought it would be. Most of the statistics are even through four games, save three. The Pacers have been better on the boards 39.3 to 33.8 rpg for +5.5 rebounding differential. Indy is also shooting three's at a much higher clip (35.6% to 23.7%). There's no doubt that rebounds and 3-point shooting are what has kept the Pacers in this thing so far. The Nets have the lead in the turnover department though (8.8 to 16.5 topg). NJ's +7.7 turnover differential is probably canceling out Indy's advantage in the other two categories, hence why the series is now best of three.
Jermaine O'Neal is playing very well for the Pacers, but Peja Stojakovic needs to suck it up. Peja missed games two and four with a left knee injury. This injury was supposedly bothering Stojakovic throughout the season, but somehow he managed to not a miss a game until the playoffs. Is anybody buying this? Hey Peja, take the skirt off and get in there already.
Second year big man Nenad Krstic is having his coming out party for the Nets. Krstic has upped his regular season averages in points (13.5 to 18 ppg), shooting (50.7% to 54.7%) and rebounding (6.4 to 7 rpg). Nenad's increased confidence in his low post scoring gives NJ's half court offense an added dimension that should help them if they advance.
I still think the Nets are the better team. I see this one going the full seven games with home court being the difference for NJ.
Milwaukee v Detroit - Pistons lead 2-1. Losing game three by 20 points was a wake up call for Detroit. It was pretty obvious that the Piston players thought they could just coast after winning the first two games rather easily. The Bucks deserve credit for not folding and giving their best effort of the series when they needed it most. That said, this series is over in five.
Detroit has to want to finish Milwaukee off ASAP now because of Richard Hamilton's left ankle injury. The only thing that can make the Eastern Conference playoffs competitive is an injury to one of the Piston starters. I know the word from Detroit is that Rip's injury isn't serious, but I'm not so sure. He's certainly not moving as well, and the size of the ice pack he had on the sidelines Saturday seemed a little excessive for a "minor" ankle sprain.
Chicago v Miami - Tied 2-2. Believe it or not, this series has progressed pretty much like I thought it would. I suspected the Bulls would be in every game, but I didn't think Chicago would be able to win more then one game in the closing moments. Give the Bulls credit for not backing down and continually outworking the Heat.
It should come as no surprise that Miami's lackluster play has continued on into the post season (they better flip their "on switch" before it's too late). I still say the Heat are the more talented team. The thing is, they know it too. Therein lies the problem. Miami has fallen into the trap of accepting Shaquille O'Neal's mantra of "We'll be fine in the playoffs." I assume the Heat now understand that they are going to have to play hard for the full for 48 minutes because Chicago never gives up. I expect Miami to win the next two games, but they are going to have a lot trouble in the next round because the team they face will be far more talented then the Bulls are.
Washington v Cleveland - Tied 2-2. This is yet another series that is proceeding just as I expected. Although I will admit that the Wizards have looked like the better team for the most part. LeBron James has been great in his first post season and Gilbert Arenas has been his usual unstoppable self. That's why I find the whole grousing about Bron getting calls thing a little silly.
Look, this is the NBA, and stars get calls. I understand that coaches use the media to get their message across to the referees any way they can. But for Arenas, of all people, to say that James is getting preferential treatment is ridiculous. I watch a lot of games throughout the year, and Gil is right up there with the best of them when it comes to the benefit of the doubt or reputation fouls. Besides, look at the numbers. Washington has been called for 83 fouls and shot 138 free throws. Compared to the Cavaliers being called for 105 fouls and shooting 103 free throws. Even further, GA has been to the line 52 times so far and Bron only 42.
If Cleveland would involve Zydrunas Ilgauskas more I think they would win this series going away. Big Z averaged 11.4 shots a game in the regular season. In the playoffs his attempts are down to 9.8 per game. I know that Ilgauskas is not a star, but he has a very nice post up game when given the opportunity. Z is the one place the Cavs have a clear advantage, and I hope coach Mike Brown realizes that before it's too late.
Neither of these clubs play good defense, use their bench, or are particularly well coached. For these reasons I anticipate that the rest of the games will be close back and forth affairs that come down to who makes more clutch shots in the fourth quarter. If this series does wind up going the distance, I still can't see LeBron losing at home in game seven.
WEST
Memphis v Dallas - Mavericks lead 3-0. When Dirk Nowitzki hit a 3-pointer with 15.7 seconds left to tie game three, and Chucky Atkins followed that up by missing a wide open lay-up at the buzzer, this series was officially over. I suppose the Grizzlies could win game four to save some face, but I highly doubt it. The two reasons Memphis has failed to get it done are simple: Mike Miller and Pau Gasol.
Fresh off winning the Sixth Man of the Year award, Miller has totally disappeared in the playoffs. He went from averaging 13.7 points and shooting 40.7% from three in the regular season, to 8 points and 16.7% from distance in this series (his assists, rebounds and overall shooting percentage are also down).
In .5 more minutes per game Gasol is averaging less points (18.7 from 20.4 ppg), rebounds (7 from 8.9 rpg), blocks (1.67 from 1.91 bpg), assists (4 from 4.6 apg) and shooting a lower percentage (41.7% from 50.3%). Pau's slippage is much worse in my opinion because he has also shown that he is not a closer. "Spanish Fly" is a great regular season performer, but much like Chris Webber or Kevin Garnett before him, Gasol's personality is such that he lacks the makeup to take over games when his team needs him to the most.
Clippers v Denver - Los Angeles leads 3-1. Once Kenyon Martin was suspended indefinitely for "conduct detrimental to the team" after his game two halftime rant against coach George Karl and several teammates alike, this series was over. K-Mart seems to be mad at the world because he's not the same player since his left knee never healed properly after microfracture surgery. Now he's going to file a formal grievance against the Nuggets? If there was any doubt remaining that Martin would be traded this summer, that grievance should settle it.
Carmelo Anthony's production has fallen off in the playoffs for third consecutive post season. My take is that Melo reverts back to some old bad habits and starts trying to force the action when the games become more important. The flip side to that could be that Denver has never had the perimeter shooters (and still doesn't) to exploit the double teams that Anthony regularly draws. Whatever the reason, nothing can change the fact that Melo went from averaging 26.5 points on 48.1% shooting this year to 20.5 points on 33.3% shooting in the playoffs. (In his rookie year he went from 21 ppg on 42.6% shooting to 15 ppg and 32.8%. His second year wasn't as bad, but he still dropped from 20.8 ppg and 43.1% to 19.2 ppg and 42.2%.)
Lakers v Phoenix - Los Angeles leads 3-1. I'm always tooting my horn when I am right, so it's only fair to say I was dead wrong about this series. In my own defense though, I have not seen THIS Laker team play all year long (I saw at least 70 of their regular season games too). Sharing the ball? Making good decisions? The lion's share of the credit for this goes to LA coach Phil Jackson and his game plan. The Lakers have been successful controlling the tempo with their deliberate slow down offense. LA has accomplished a few things by executing Phil's strategy to a tee.
First and foremost the Suns have not been able to take advantage of the Lakers' poor transition defense. This in turn has exploited Phoenix' major weakness, their half court offense. Next, Shawn Marion is far less effective when the pace of the game slows down. The "Matrix" excels in the up and down game. However, in half court sets he looks lost and really doesn't have a go to move to fall back on. Of course, a lot of how bad Marion looks could be because Lamar Odom is defending him. LO has continued his exceptional play and has won the battle of second fiddles so far.
What do the Kobe Bryant haters have to say about this situation? Not shooting enough. To passive. Trying to prove a point. Whatever the case may be, Bryant is clearly making his teammates better right now. He's actually doing a better job then Steve Nash is too. The defending MVP has had little or no help thus far. Which has forced him to try and take matters into his own hands. That is not Steve's game (it's Kobe's), but I blame coach Mike D'Antoni more then Nash.
I usually watch the post game press conferences on NBATV, and D'Antoni always has one of two responses to why his club is struggling. "We have to run, because that's who we are." or "We are playing tight out there and just need to relax." Umm, OK coach, but do you have another plan if that doesn't work? Naturally, no one ever asks that, but I think it's exceedingly obvious that Phil has coached circles around Mike in this series.
It's poetic justice that my two year first round undefeated streak should be ended by my favorite team. That said, however unlikely it may seem at this point, if any squad can run off three straight victories, it is these Suns.
Sacramento v San Antonio - Tied 2-2. The Spurs are a bounce of the ball on a Brent Barry three away from being down 3-1. Ever since Ron Artest's arrival the Kings have been playing with a new found toughness. Sacto has been able to muscle SA around pretty much at will by posting up Artest, Bonzi Wells and even Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich and his staff are going to have come up with a new plan to defend Ron-Ron and Bonzi on the block, because the mismatches those two are creating right now are killing SA.
Speaking of defense, no one is currently flexing more muscle then Artest is. Ronnie has effectively taken Manu Ginobili out of the three games he has played in. Not including game two, Manu has averaged 7 points on 39.1% shooting, which is way down from his season averages of 15.1 ppg and 46.2%. Ginobili's 3-point shooting is also down from his regular season mark (21.4% from 38.2%). It's more then just the numbers though, the look an Manu's face has been one of utter frustration throughout the series. Ginobili has to snap out of it and find a way to take advantage of his quickness and not let Artest body him up so much.
As this series moves on to the best of three, it's definitely up for grabs. For the Kings to advance they are going to need to Mike Bibby and Brad Miller to start consistently making open shots. Bibby's field goal percentage has dropped from 43.2% to 35.5% in the playoffs and Miller's from 49.5% to 43.2%. The Spurs will be in trouble if those two find the range. As weird as this may sound, SA needs more out of Tim Duncan. Timmy's numbers haven't really fallen off, but he's just not exuding that air of confidence he usually does. I know about the plantar fasciitis in his right foot, but truly great players always seem to find a way when their team needs them to.
The Spurs look eminently beatable at this point. I think they'll eventually handle Sacto and move on, but they may not even be the favorites in the next round.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
Notes from the playoffs.....The Rangers were humanly destroyed by the Devils, getting swept in the series and scoring a grand total of 4 goals in the 4 games. That series for the Rangers my friends, was UGLY.....After a one game scare the Sens dispatched the Lightning 4 games to 1 to move on. I wasn't sold on the ability of the Sens to beat the Bolts but when I saw the Bolts were going to start ex-Flyers stiff Sean Burke in goal I figured it was a done deal. I actually admire Sean Burke. The guy parlayed one big playoff run for the Devils in like 1988 into a career that's still going on. If there was a nuclear holocaust the only things to survive would be cockroaches and Sean Burke wearing an NHL sweater.....The Oilers are leading the Red Wings 3 games to 2. Oiler defenseman Chris Pronger has been dominant and is the leading candidate for the "Claude Lemieux Award" given annually to the player that sleepwalks through the regular season and turns it on for the playoffs.....The Flames are leading the Ducks 3 games to 2 with Jarome Iginla scoring 5 goals in the series so far. Even Tony Amonte is playing well for the Flames. The Ducks are playing musical goalies which is always the kiss of death.....I predicted the Stars would be the dark horse in the playoffs and of course they choked like dogs. The Lanche won the series 4 games to 1 with goalie Jose Theodore playing out of his mind. If the Lanche make a run and Theodore plays big then GM Pierre Lacroix is going to look like a genius because everyone in the league thought that trade was nuts.....Carolina is winning their series against the Habs 3 games to 2 and have regained home ice advantage. Rod Brind'Amour is having a big series. And by the way, I just read that Brind'Amour won more then 300 more face offs then the second place guy (I'm not sure who that is) for the 2005 - 2006 season. The guy is a monster.....The Sharks beat the Preds in 5 games and are slowly gaining momentum as a trendy pick for the Stanley Cup. It's a shame about the Preds because they have a nice team but they couldn't over come losing goalie Tomas Vokoun.
So the Flyers are down 3 games to 2 to the Sabres and have about as much chance of winning this series as Tori Spelling has of winning an Oscar. And even if they won the series by some miraculous act of God the Sens or Devils would take care of them later. I attended the game last Friday, a few observations.....first of all I liked how the Flyers showed the video clip of Scott Norwood missing the Super Bowl field goal right as the game was starting. I thought that was clever. The game was won by the Flyers but when I watched the Flyers in person it was crystal clear that the Flyers are a painfully slow team. And the two biggest culprits are Mike Rathje and Derian Hatcher. The entire game they're just chasing the play. And the worst part is they're going to be around for a while. The Flyers need to totally revamp not only their roster but they have to revamp their thinking.
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:36 AM
3 Comments:
A Monday morning blog should also include a Sopranos review.
Agreed - but leave out the Vito gay stuff.
I'll throw some Sopranos in this week.
E.W.
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