Monday Morning Mehta 4/24/06

Edition # 159
April 24, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

Also, for the NBA Round 1 Previews, go to:

http://mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com/2006/04/nba-playoffs-preview-round-1.html

Phillies/MLB

Phillies are back to playing "Phillies Baseball" with a terrible 2-3 week vs. the bottom feeders in the NL East. As usual there isn't much more to say than I've already said, so I'll say it again.

- Too many streaky players on offense. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell have been feast or famine this year.

- A average at best middle relief corps relief is overused. Can anyone remember the last time three Phillies starters went 8 innings in b2b2b games?

- Watching Abraham Nunez and Sal Fasano have me screaming for the return of David Bell & Mike Lieberthal.

- Positive Note: Brett Myers & Tom Gordon have looked very good.

- It's getting very close to the time to start looking to fire Charlie Manuel. Team GM's are lot more patient than fans. As a fan, he should be gone after last year. But I suspect Pat Gillick will be quick to pull the trigger, as a new GM generally likes to have his own man in the manager's seat. If they lose 3 out of 4 to the Rockies this week, Manuel might not be making the trip to Pittsburgh. More likely is that a few games will get rained out and we'll be stuck with Cholly.

- Member when Phillies fans wanted to sign AJ Burnett and MMM warned them of his injury issues and how high of a price that was to pay for an unproven pitcher ($55 million over 5 years). Well AJ Burnett just landed himself on the DL last week with an elbow injury. I don't know much about medicine, but I know when a pitcher is going to see Dr. James Andrews, it's not good.
Around the League

The two World Series teams from last year are also the hottest teams in baseball after 3 weeks. Houston Astros haven't lost a series all year and lead the NL with a 13-5 record. They have had a weak schedule but so have the Phillies. The White Sox are just on a tear, winning 8 in a row after struggling the first week of the year.
Detroit is probably a .500 team for a full year, but they are playing some good baseball so far. Phillies didn't want Jim Leyland.

I don't know what it is, but the underrated great manager in baseball is Buck Showalter. I like watching Texas for some reason, probably because they score a lot of runs, and Showalter always seems to be making the right moves.

Atlanta is about a week or so away from getting their sh$t together and winning 12 out of 15.
It's early and I'm not changing my pick of the Dodgers in the NL West, but the Giants sure look good. I underestimated this team's offense minus Barry Bonds. It's actually pretty decent. If they can sure up the pitching injuries, they could be a force later in the year.

Next weekend: The NFL Draft. I'd give you a full Mel Kiper type preview, but it's almost Monday Afternoon, and MAM doesn't sound as good as MMM. Also, I don't know anything about more than about 5 players. Anyway, I think the Eagles will trade up and get this Ngata guy from the Ducks (huge DT). I've heard that the Browns also want him, and this may be a little payback for the whole LeCharles Bentley thing. Or is his name LeBentley Charles?

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Being that I got 13 of 16 playoffs team correct in October, the annual 'Tap Dancing' segment is shorter then ever. Without further ado...

EAST 7 of 8

I had in, but didn't make it

New York (23-59) - This is what I get for putting my faith in Larry Brown. Last season the Knicks finished 33-49. At the start of the year I thought LB would be good for at least ten wins. Never did I think he'd end up COSTING them ten wins. I'm sure by now you've heard many "experts" suggest that LB sabotaged the season for any number of reasons (like NY setting the NBA record for most different starting lineups used). Even with my dislike for the man, that's hard for me to buy into. The fact that people even suggest it though is probably the biggest indictment of Brown's character. Also, when you look at the Knicks' roster, they do have some talent, albeit not Larry's type of players. Indictment number two: LB proved that he is either incapable or unwilling to coach to his player's strengths. Even with all that, NY seemed to be turning things around until Stephon Marbury sprained his left shoulder running into a pick set by Wally Szczerbiak on 1/16. After that, they bought a few rolls of stamps and mailed in the rest of the campaign.

Out but In

Chicago (41-41) - I had to see all five teams from the same division make the playoffs before I was going to believe it. Now that it's happened, I won't hesitate to pick that way if I feel it again. You probably already know that the Bulls finished atop the field goal defense charts (42.6%) this season. But did you know that makes two years in a row for them? Chicago did it last year too (42.2%). I'm not sure why coach Scott Skiles doesn't get more credit for that impressive feat in the national media. Anyway, kudos to Skiles and the Bulls for making me wrong on them two years in a row.

WEST 6 of 8

In but Out

Utah (41-41) - Two things went wrong with the Jazz this year. First, Carlos Boozer missed 49 games with a torn left hamstring. Next, for the second consecutive season coach Jerry Sloan was unable to decide on a rotation and stick with it. Sloan is a Hall of Fame coach, but the older he gets, the more of a problem he's having keeping his emotions in check when it comes to demoting players. Deron Williams and Devin Brown come to mind this year. That said, if Boozer comes back five games sooner, Utah probably makes the playoffs.

Houston (34-48) - Tracy McGrady missed 35 games, Yao Ming 25, and Rafer Alston 19. That adds up to three starters who missed a combined total of 79 games. Almost a full season there. Things may never be the same for the Rockets either. T-Mac's back has been getting progressively worse for years now, and that trend is expected to continue. Yao's broken left foot is cause for concern as well. You never ever know about a big guy's longevity once he starts having foot problems.
Out but In

Clippers (47-35) - I knew that Los Angeles had plenty of talent on paper before the season began. Truth be told, I thought they had too much, and that guys like Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, and Corey Maggette would hog the ball and ignore Elton Brand. I was way off, and the credit goes to coach Mike Dunleavy for keeping this crew on the same page (even when it came to tanking). I have a sneaking suspicion that Maggette missing 50 games with an assortment of injuries actually had something to do with how well the Clips' chemistry and rotation came together, but we'll never know for sure.

Lakers (45-37) - I figured that coach Phil Jackson was good for ten wins (turned out to be 11), but with Smush Parker and Kwame Brown penciled in as full time starters, and no bench to speak of, I by no means thought Los Angeles could make the playoffs in the West. I was never so glad to be wrong.

- As always, I'm passing on the Most Improved Player. In my opinion, no award is more subjective. Just because someone gets more minutes, does not mean they are improved. Drum roll please...

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Bruce Bowen
2. Andrei Kirilenko
3. Gerald Wallace

All-Defense Team
Bruce Bowen
Andrei Kirilenko
Gerald Wallace
Ron Artest
Ben Wallace

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Mike Miller
2. Shareef Abdur-Rahim
3. Jerry Stackhouse

Executive of the Year
1. Bryan Colangelo
2. Danny Ferry
3. Jerry West

Coach of the Year
1. Phil Jackson
2. Avery Johnson
3. Flip Saunders

Rookie of the Year
1. Chris Paul
2. Charlie Villanueva
3. Andrew Bogut

All-Rookie Team
Chris Paul
Raymond Felton
Charlie Villanueva
Channing Frye
Andrew Bogut

Most Valuable Player
1. Kobe Bryant
2. LeBron James
3. Dirk Nowitzki
4. Steve Nash
5. Chauncey Billups

All-NBA First Team
Steve Nash
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Dirk Nowitzki
Elton Brand

Second Team
Chauncey Billups
Dwyane Wade
Shawn Marion
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan

Third Team
Tony Parker
Paul Pierce
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Pau Gasol

NHL Week In Review By : Ed Wasser

- If there's one cool thing about hockey it's this...people make the case to me all the time that the NHL isn't all that popular, and they may be right. People say to me that the NHL isn't as popular as NASCAR or even the NFL draft, and it may be true. But you can go all over the world, from coast to coast, from pillar to post and all the ships at sea and you can ask everyone just one question...."Who plays for the Stanley Cup?" And they all know it's the National Hockey League. And to emphasize my point, some country singer kid I never heard of was playing the Grand Ole Opry in Nashville last Thursday. Half way through his act he said to the crowd in his southern twang "Ladies and Gentlemen, I want to introduce to you a very special guest....the Stanley Cup". With that the Stanley Cup handlers brought out the Cup and put it on a chair on stage, and the crowd went NUTS!!!! Granted, it's the Predators first ever time in the playoffs but I just love the fact that the fans in Nashville, Tenn. of all places, in only a few short years as an NHL franchise, know what the Cup represents.

- OK, a little background. So Luc Robitaille's first ballot Hall of Fame career ended last Monday night after an unproductive last season. Robitaille ended his career as the highest scoring left winger in NHL history and the LA Kings all time leader in goals, assists, games played...you name it. Plus Robitaille is widely seen as Los Angeles' biggest hockey ambassador. Prior to Robitaille announcing his retirement he had a handful of healthy scratches due to his offense struggles which Robitaille accepted and kept quiet about, at least in public. It was known that Robitaille was unhappy with the scratches and his dwindling ice time but he always stayed positive in the media which is what class guys do. With 11 games remaining in the year King GM and former Robitaille teammate Dave Taylor fired coach Andy Murray and replaced him with John Torchetti. Over the remaining 11 games of the season Taylor and Torchetti scratched Robitaille in a bunch of games including 3 in a row, but instead of pulling him aside and telling him in the afternoon, they waited until the last second. And by "the last second" I mean right before the team hit the ice for the game. And THEN with 5 games to go and it being common knowledge that Robitaille would retire at the end of the season Torchetti implied Robitaille may be scratched for the duration of the season. It's actually not that uncommon to scratch a player right before a game but the guy is the best left winger that has ever played the game, he'll have his own section in the Hall of Fame dedicated to his accomplishments, but most of all....the Kings weren't even a threat to make the playoffs so what's the difference? Let him play, why screw him like that? I'll tell you why, because when all this was going down Robitaille said to the media on one occasion "I think I deserve more respect then this". That was it. Well the day after the season ended both Taylor and Torchetti were unceremoniously fired. OH SWEET KARMA!!!! "Lucky" Luc did deserve better.

Flyers vs. Sabres.....The Flyers lost game one 3 - 2 in double overtime. The Flyers, with the exception of goalie Robert Esche who had an incredible game, did everything possible to lose the game. They gave up point blank shots, they took stupid penalties, and got into an up and down skating game with the Sabres and it eventually killed them. And by the way, the Flyers did indeed take a lot of stupid penalties but the overall officiating was ABYSMAL. Mike Knuble got cracked in the face with a stick in the first period, he went down in a heap with blood gushing out of his nose....two officials were on the ice, no call. The Sabres were getting every ticky tac call, in overtime no less, including three power plays in a row. Game 2 is tonight, I predict whoever wins the game wins the series.

Rangers vs. Devils.....The Rangers have walked into a lion's den wearing a hot dog suit. Just call the Devils butter because they're on a roll. 11 straight wins going into the playoffs with Martin Broduer playing lights out and now they're playing their hated rivals. In game 1, the Devils blew the doors off the Rangers winning 6 - 1 with Brian Rafalski playing Jaromir Jagr so tight defensively he can now pick Jagr's prostate out of a police line up . Plus Jagr got hurt during the game killing a penalty, why he was out killing a penalty in a 5 - 1 game is anyone's guess. And since it's playoff time the Rangers won't let on how severe the injury is. The Rangers might steal a game in the Garden but they're out matched and out classed by a team that is firing on all cylinders. Devils in 5.

Colorado vs. Dallas.....The 'Lanche had a big win in game one in Dallas (5 - 2) and newly acquired goalie José Theodore played really well. Thankfully this issue of MMM is coming out after the playoffs started because I was going to predict that the Stars would be a playoff dark horse. PHEW!! That was a close one. OK, I won't back down, I still like the Stars in this one. They have loads of talent, speed on defense (see : Zubov, Sergie), and the goaltending is....well, it's adequate. Stars in 7.

Edmonton vs. Detroit.....The fact that Edmonton is the 8th seed in the playoffs should show you how superior the western conference is to the east. The Oilers are a feisty bunch, the almost won game one and took game 2, 4 - 2. It's still going to be an up hill battle for them, Detroit is really strong and they just send wave after wave of offensive threats at you. But so far Edmonton is doing all the right things....they've blocked shots like crazy, Chris Pronger is playing great defense (plus he has 2 goals), and goalie Dwayne Roloson is playing well. And Detroit has a history of recent playoff collapses against teams they should have hammered. That being said I have to go with my head, Wings in 7.

Carolina vs. Montréal.....Anybody catch the license plate of the truck that ran over the Canes? Wow, game 1 was a 6 - 1 arse kicking by the Habs. Alexei Kovalev came up big and goalie Christobal Huet crushed the Canes like Richard Simmons at a biker rally. I dunno, I still have to go with the Canes in the series in 6 games but it's a little troubling that Carolina, on home ice no less, would come up so small in their first playoff game.

San José vs. Nashville.....The series comes down to one thing, penalties. The Predators are a small team, I've seen more grit from guys wearing t-shirts with "99 Luft Balloons" written on them, so if the refs swallow their whistles they're done because once the Sharks get cycling they're tough to stop. So far the refs have kept up their end of the bargain and have called the Sharks for numerous interference penalties, but the series is tied at 1 game a piece. In game 2 the Preds penalty kill was awful and the Sharks won 3 - 0. In the long run I think the Preds take this series because the only way the Sharks know how to stop the speedy Preds is to hold them so I expect them to be playing a lot of the series a man down. Preds in 6.

Tampa Bay vs. Ottawa.....On paper the Sens should be crushing the Bolts, but they don't play the playoffs on paper. In game 1 the Sens scored 4 unanswered goals in the 3rd period and appeared to be in command from shortly after the start of the game on. But in game 2 the Sens couldn't get out of their way and lost the game 4 - 3, a game the Sens lead twice. Prior to taking over the goaltending duties from injured Dominic Hasek the only thing I knew about Ottawa goalie Ray Emery was that he once ate a cockroach to win a $500 bet. But he's playing solid, his defense has just been letting him down. But I think the Bolts are too injury riddled to make a run. Sens in 6.

Calgary vs. Anaheim.....Odd man rushes are KILLING the Flames, they gave up 4 in game 2 alone. The series is tied at 1 but if it wasn't for goalie Miikka Kiprusoff they'd be down 2 games to zip. The Flames have a kid named Dion Phaneuf who is a phenomenal young offensive defenseman, he had a goal in game 2, but he takes too many chances. Don't abandon your post unless you know someone else will cover it kid!! The Ducks are playing well too, especially Scott Niedermayer who may be the most underrated defenseman in the league. I'm going to take the Flames in 7 but this one could go either way.

NBA Playoffs Preview - Round 1

NBA SPECIAL FRIDAY PLAYOFF EDITION - DERRECK SURA

As the playoffs begin, I have to comment on one thing. The current seeding situation must be changed. There is no way the Denver Nuggets, who finished with the worst record among the playoff teams in the West at 44-38 (the Nugs lose the tiebreaker with Sacramento 3-1), deserve to be the 3rd seed. Number one, it throws the whole playoffs out of whack.

Number two, it makes for too many meaningless late season games. Even worse, it creates circumstances where it benefits a team to lose (hello Clippers). According to Commissioner David Stern, the Competition Committee is going to address this situation in the off season. My problem with the rumored new "plan" is that it's going to create similar problems. The new idea includes seeding the three division winners, along with the team with the best record otherwise, one to four based on overall record. In this new scenario, where Denver would still be seeded fourth instead of eighth, all four teams would get home court advantage regardless of record or tiebreakers. Which would mean the Nugs would have home court over the Grizzlies this season, even though Denver loses the tiebreaker.

My solution is simple: Seed one to eight based on record. The end of the regular season would be far more interesting if the seeding went strictly by record. I just don't see what the hang up is? The Nugs, or the winner of any crappy division in the future, would still get to hang a banner in their arena and sell Division Winner merchandise. Maybe my proposal just makes too much sense is all.

- I know this is a sure fire way jinx yourself, but I feel I owe to the gamblers amongst my readership to inform them that I have gone 8-0 in the first round ofthe playoffs the past two seasons. Not being agambler myself, I don't know what kind of odds you could get in Vegas just picking the winners of all eight series' straight up, but I bet they'd be pretty nice. Of course, I have to win all eight for the big payday. No pressure though.

EAST

Washington v Cleveland - I'm very excited to see LeBron James in action for the first time in the postseason. If you didn't already know, this kid is special, and I can't wait to see him take his game to the next level. I expect this series to be extremely competitive. The Wizards have the better staring five, but the Cavaliers have the stronger bench. I'm not a big fan of either coach, and neither team is great defensively, but Washington has the edge in experience because they made it to the second round last year. Cleveland has to establish Zydrunas Ilgauskas down low early in each game. Not only is he the best post player in the series, but the Wiz' frontline is very foul prone. Washington will want to turn the games into a track meet and hope they have enough fire power to out score the Cavs.

Key match up - Gilbert Arenas & Larry Hughes. I know they don't play the same position, but Hughes is Cleveland's best defender and should draw the near impossible task of checking Arenas in critical situations. What makes this match up intriguing is how both players are already chirping about how they are happy to be facing each other and can't wait toget it on. Gil feels betrayed, and Larry wants to prove he made the right decision in leaving D.C. Bulletin board material ahoy!

Prediction - Each team is going to get blown out once as well as win a game on the road. I can't go against LeBron in a deciding game at home. Cavs in 7.

Chicago v Miami - The Bulls are the hottest teamcoming into the post season. The Heat? Not so much. Chicago has been playing in a virtual playoffs for about three weeks now, while Miami has been struggling with injuries, consistency, chemistry, and the general malaise that seems to affect all Shaquille O'Neal led teams. The Heat have a massive edge in big game experience and much more beef down low. Two things give the Bulls a punchers chance here. One, they are used to playing way harder then Miami is. Two, Chicago finished with the best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA (42.6%). This will be a big time wake up call for Miami. The Heat have been thinking they can just turn it on all season long, even though they have not shown any signs of having an"on" switch to date.

Key match up - Ben Gordon & Dwyane Wade. If Gordon doesn't have it going, the Bulls have trouble scoring enough points to win. Dwyane is a good defender, but I think Ben is a little quicker then Wade is. Dwyane may need to lay off Gordon a little and rely on his length to bother Ben's jumper. Gordon has never shownany interest in playing defense, so he will have totry and run Wade ragged on the offensive end and hope Dwyane wears down. Prediction - I think this series will be surprisingly competitive, but Miami should be fine as long as they take advantage of their superiority down low. Heat in 5.

Indiana v New Jersey - The Pacers have been playing like crap for the past month. The Nets, on the other hand, were super hot for a month before putting it into cruise control to finish the season. That's why I was very surprised when I looked at the numbers and saw just how even these teams were in terms of league wide rank in several categories. Both clubs are well coached, play great defense, and have plenty of playoff experience. On offense, Indy prefers the half court, but they have improved their transition game as of late. NJ loves to run, but they can also play slow down ball with the best of them. Neither team has a great bench, but the Nets have the better starting five. It's hard for me to find a significant advantage for either side, which is why I think this series could be more viable then people think.

Key match up - Peja Stojakovic & Richard Jefferson. Peja has already said that he is going to opt out of his contract after the season, so you know he wants to play well here. One problem. RJ is a great defender, and will shadow Stojakovic throughout the series. Peja is really going to have to work hard to get his shot off. On the flip side, can Stojakovic stay with Jefferson on defense? And if he can, will Peja have anything left on the offensive end? Millions of dollars hang in the balance...

Prediction - The Pacers could either get swept or win the series depending on how consistent their effort level is. I'll take NJ's stars in the end though. Nets in 6.

Milwaukee v Detroit - This is your typical "David vs. Goliath" scenario. The team with the best record overall facing the only sub .500 squad to make the playoffs. When you look at the Bucks' roster on paper, they have a little bit of everything, but for some reason it just hasn't come together for them. Milwaukee played the Pistons relatively tough in their four meetings this year. The Bucks lost three close games and won a meaningless game (for Detroit) late in the season. That said, other then maybe rebounding, there's really nothing Milwaukee does better then the Pistons. The most glaring difference in the clubs is defense. Even though Detroit is not the same as they were, the Pistons are still far superior to the Bucks on that end. Milwaukee needs to focus on playing for the full 48 minutes, then hope for some breaks.

Key match up - Michael Redd & Richard Hamilton. Redd averaged 30 points on 55% shooting from the field against Detroit this year. What's even more impressive is that he shot an unreal 73.9% from behind the arc. What makes that feat especially notable is that the Pistons finished first in 3-point defense this season (32.5%). I'm sure Detroit will guard Michael by committee, but it's up to Rip to use his movement without the ball to try and tire Redd out so his legs aren't there in the fourth quarter.

Prediction - The Bucks have a bright future and need to use this as a learning experience. The Pistons can have an injury and still win this series. Detroit in 5.

WEST

Sacramento v San Antonio - As crazy as it may sound, I think these two team's starters are pretty evenly matched. The Spurs have a better bench and more experience together, but it's not like the Kings are bereft in either of those two categories themselves. This series is going to be a knock down drag out scuffle all the way. Both clubs excel at running their half court sets and playing solid defense. Sacto has enough big bodies to throw at the less then 100% Tim Duncan. The big worry for the Kings will bekeeping Tony Parker out of the lane. Not many players have the quickness to stay in front of TP, so swift defensive rotations out to SA's shooters is a must for Sacto. The Kings are still coming together as a team, and I couldn't think of a better time for them to hit their stride.

Key match up - Ron Artest & Manu Ginobili. I don't think Manu will be guarding Artest, but this is still the main event. Ginobili has been slowed by a myriad of injuries all season long, and there is no relief insight for his aching body. Ron-Ron loves to get physical, and I guarantee that he is salivating (literally) at the opportunity to lock Manu down. Being that Ginobili is usually the Spurs' X-factor, if Artest can keep him under control, that will be HUGE for Sacto.

Prediction - This series has the potential to get ugly. As in some extracurricular activities. In the end SA's depth will be difference though. Spurs in 6.

Clippers v Denver - This should be a high quality series between two up and coming young teams with somewhat contrasting styles. The Nuggets are going to want to get out and run. While Los Angeles would prefer to pound the ball down low and let their postup players dictate play. The Clips rebound the ball and shoot it from distance better then Denver, but most importantly, LA is the healthier squad right now. The Nugs obviously have more post season experience, but to succeed they are really going to need the defense and rebounding newcomers Ruben Patterson and Reggie Evans bring. Carmelo Anthony was much improved this year, but he has yet to establish himself in the playoffs. Both clubs feature big time closers in Melo and Sam Cassell, so the final moments of close games could be very entertaining to watch.

Key match up - Elton Brand & Kenyon Martin. K-Mart is going to have his hands full trying to contain Brand with a gimpy left knee. Kenyon's best bet is to use his speed (if he's able) to either beat Elton down the floor or go by him off the dribble. Brand is a highly underrated defender, so Martin's minimal post up game should pose no threat to him. Kenyon is very susceptible to a good pump fake, so if EB utilizes that well, K-Mart will almost certainly end up in foul trouble.

Prediction - I don't see this series as evenly matched as most do. If the Clips were more consistent, it wouldn't be close. As is, I see it going the distance. LA in 7.

Lakers v Phoenix - Los Angeles is the trendy upset pick in the national media. I wish agreed. Sure the Lakers have been playing better then the Suns have over the last month. I also know that LA has the best player in the NBA in Kobe Bryant. And while the Lakers' overall defense has improved this year, their main weakness is still their transition D. Which unfortunately plays right into Phoenix' strength. This is the fact that people seem to be glossing over when evaluating this series. That's not to say LA has no chance though. The Lakers actually do have the personnel to defend the Suns, but if LA can't control the tempo, it won't matter. Phoenix will have a huge advantage if a track meet breaks out because they boast way more scoring options then the Lakers do. At the very least these games will be fun to watch though.

Key match up - Lamar Odom & Shawn Marion. While the Matrix has been garnering some MVP support for his exploits, Lamar has quietly been playing his best ball since returning to LA. These two rangy defenders present interesting problems for each other. Marion is quicker off the dribble and a better jump shooter. Odom is the stronger post player and superior play maker. Steve Nash and Kobe may get all the headlines, but the winner in this battle of second fiddles may decide the series.


Prediction - Kobe could average 40+ points plus for the series, and the Lakers not win a game. The Suns fire power will be too much for LA to overcome. Phoenix in 6.

Memphis v Dallas - The Grizzlies played some stellar ball over the final month of the season and refused to tank. Their reward? A Mavericks team that finished with the third best record overall. As good as Dallas was all year long, they have struggled with injuries down the stretch. It's true that the Mavs are now a defensive oriented half court team, but Memphis plays better D and is just as comfortable, if not more so, playing the slow down style. Dallas has a big advantage rebounding the ball and more scoring options offensively. Even with many of their players dinged up, the Mavs still possess more depth then the Griz do. Both of theses clubs are well coached, have clearly defined role players, and systems that the entire team buys into. So it's going to come down to which squad executes their game plan more consistently.

Key match up - Pau Gasol & Dirk Nowitzki. Nothing like a match up of two "soft" Euro's to get the blood flowing, eh? The truth of the matter is that both of these guys had career years. Where Pau is going to be sorely tested trying to stay with Dirk on the perimeter, Nowitzki should have less issues with Gasol on the low block. Memphis really has no one that matches up well with Dirk (not many do), so if Pau can't slow Nowitzki down at least a little, the Griz are in big trouble.


Prediction - This series is going be a slug fest. Memphis will win their first playoff game in franchise history, but I just don't think they have enough scoring. Dallas in 6.

We here at MMM promise to have the next set of previews out by 8 AM Pacific time Sunday morning at the absolute latest.

Monday Morning Mehta 4/17/06

Edition # 158
April 17, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

I really have nothing to say about the Phillies this week after a decent 4-2 week. I only like writing about the Phillies when I'm miserable. So I'll hold off on my comments until next week, when the Phillies are in the middle of a 10 game homestand versus Washington, Florida and Colorado (some really bad teams). An 8-2 homestand shouldn't be out of the question, but winning every series would be acceptable (hence 7-3).

Besides, I'm about 15 minutes away from starting to run in the Boston Marathon. I'm going to beat these Ethiopians and Kenyans that keep winning this thing.

In the meantime, it's NBA & NHL playoff time, and Sura & Wasser will cover those for us as always.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- The Sixers started the week off strong with two nice wins, but followed that up two losses. Philadelphia (37-43) was eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday when Chicago and Washington won. The Sixers face two teams with nothing to play for this week: New Jersey & @Charlotte (back to back). I'd say Philly has a chance to win both games, as long as they bring the intensity from the opening tip.

This is a bitter sweet column for me because it will be the last time I'll be covering the Sixers on a weekly basis for MMM. Before everyone gets in an uproar, I'm not saying I'll never write about Philly ever again. What I'm saying is that my days as some kind of beat writer are over. From now on the Sixers only get mentioned if something note worthy happens with them. Just like every other team in the league.

The explanation for this change is simple, I can't stand to observe Philly play anymore. I mean, I've hated viewing them for the past two seasons, but I finally reached my breaking point this year. I can see why people in the City of Brotherly Love hate the NBA and think it's boring to watch. If had to watch only the Sixers play 80-90% of the time, I'd hate the NBA too.

The reason Philly is terrible to follow can be summed up in two words for me: Allen Iverson. I'm not taking anything away from him as a player. He is a Hall of Famer who possesses credentials that speak for themself. With that out of the way, the guy dominates the ball like no other person in the NBA. I know Kobe Bryant takes more shots, but most of Kobe's attempts come in the flow of the game. By that I mean Bryant doesn't bring the ball up the court, pound the air out of it on the perimeter for 18-20 seconds, and then drive through the lane taking what's only considered a "good shot" for him. Seriously, how many other players would get ripped by everyone with the power of speech for taking the shots AI does on a regular basis? Even when Iverson is getting assists, he's still getting them in the same fashion I mentioned above. Only he's passing the ball out of the lane rather then shooting it.

Allen averages 9.8 makes out of 23.3 attempts per game over his career for an overall field goal shooting percentage of 42.1%. He also averages 6.1 assists and 3.7 turnovers for a career assist/turnover ratio of 1.65. Any way you slice that, it's not a winning formula for a club's best player (and PG) to have those kind of numbers. It's impossible to cultivate the chemistry a winning team needs when your best player (and PG) always plays like that. There's also zero chance that any young players will truly develop in that kind of system. Some don't like this line of thinking, and would rather blame poor decisions by management as the reason AI has never had a decent supporting cast. I'd say that some talent has been there, but none of it can figure out how to play successful ball with Iverson. I'm no supporter of GM Billy King, but too many second fiddles have been through the Sixer organization during AI's reign. Yet we're supposed to believe it's on them when the one constant has always been Allen Iverson? I don't think so.

Which leads me back to my original point. It's just not enjoyable to watch one player dominate the ball year after year after year. I'd like to say to the people of Philadelphia that there is plenty of entertaining NBA basketball out there, just not the Sixers. I hate to say this, but it's probably going to get worse before it gets better too. Sorry.

Since this is my last weekly Philly article, I'm going to lay out my top three "I told ya so's" on the Sixers. When I suggested all three of these to my friends I was either laughed at, blasted, or a combination of the two. Keep in mind, all of these were said BEFORE the fact (MMM can back me up, unless I've already alienated him with this piece).

#1 - Trade Allen Iverson, blow up the team, and start the rebuilding process after Larry Brown left town following the 2002-03 season. Just look at the four bad contracts that would not have been given if my advice was followed. Re-signing Kenny Thomas and Derrick Coleman. Then extending the contracts of Eric Snow and AI himself. All four of those deals were handed out the summer after LB split. Talk about setting the franchise back years. To top it off, every one of those guys except AI was dealt the next season. KT signed on 7/16/03, traded on 2/23/05. DC signed on 8/6/03, traded on 8/4/04. E Snow signed on 10/3/03, traded on 7/20/04. You might ask what the problem is since they were all sent packing? Due to the ridiculous length of those new contracts, the Sixers ended up having to take players back with equally absurd deals. Kevin Ollie (signed through '06-07) for Snow, Corliss Williamson ('06-07) for DC, and Chris Webber ('07-08) for KT. This has led to what you have now in Philly. A capped out mediocre team always trying to tinker around the edges in hopes that will get them over the top. Not gonna happen.

#2 - Do not replace Jim O'Brien with Maurice Cheeks as head coach. When you consider the above scenario, Obie was the perfect fit to get the most out of that mess (which he did by the way). Knowing that I was going to be doing a little write up on this, I decided to ask the man himself about his feelings on the matter during his chat on ESPN.com this week. His answer is better then anything I could've come up with.

Derreck (Veneta, OR): C'mon Jim, I know it's a touchy subject, but do you feel any vindication seeing how the Sixers have performed this year with basically the same roster as you had last season?

Jim O'Brien: I really don't think I needed to feel vindicated. We took a team that won 33 games the year before and won 43 and got them into the playoffs. What is interesting is that Billy King is starting to realize his young players are not as good as he thought they were. When we took over in Philly and he told me of his opinion of all his young players, I did not agree that they were nearly as good as he thought they were. Defense is hurting them badly. We were 11th (44.3%) in field goal defense last year and now they are 22nd (46.3%). It is also interesting to see that the fans have turned their backs on what is happening.

I guess the editors at ESPN.com thought that my question was pretty good, because it was published in the 'Daily Dime' the following day. Check out #10, "Indication of Vindication" to see for yourself. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-060413

#3 - Pull sign and trade deals last summer with free agents Samuel Dalembert, Kyle Korver, and Wille Green before the rest of the league figures them out. Umm, too late. It might still be a little early on this one, but this is the next set of events that set the franchise back years.

Signing Sam D and KK to six year contract extensions is beyond asinine. What has each shown in their career so far to warrant such lengthy deals? Well, KK is a great shooter and Sam D is an above shot blocker. Other then that, those two don't bring much to the table. KK can't defend anyone or create his own shot. Sam D still has terrible hands, no go to move on offense, doesn't always play hard, and has a very low basketball IQ. I'm not saying re-signing either was a terrible idea, but for SIX years each? They are role players for cripes sake, and there is no need to sign role players for anything longer then three years. Was an effort even made to gauge the interest in those two around the league? I doubt it, just like I doubt other teams were lining up to sign KK for six years. I'm sure Sam D would've received that kind of interest, which is exactly why a sign and trade would have made so much sense. Maybe too much.

Philly got real lucky with Green. He too had a six year deal on the table just waiting for his signature. Why, I have no idea? There are 10-15 guys in the CBA and NBDL that can do exactly what Wil G does. Hogwash you say? What did Green ever show when he played? He can score, yes, but is there anything else to his game? He's a gunner that shoots a low percentage from the floor and turns the ball over too much. Remind you of anyone? Alas, Willie tore his left ACL and lateral meniscus in a pickup game a few days before the signing period opened. He ended up signing a two year contract for the pro rated league minimum on 3/23/06. Next year is a player option, so Wil can opt and become a free agent again this summer. Good luck with that buddy.

As for the current bunch of Sixers, they're just not that talented as a whole. I never understood why the public in Philly bought GM Billy King selling the same crap in a different wrapper every year. It's no news flash that the Sixers aren't any good, but what gave people so much hope these past couple of seasons? I don't know, and quite frankly, it's not my issue anymore. I don't expect that BK is going anywhere this off season, even though he deserved to be fired a few years ago. Taking that fact into account, I have two suggestions for Philly to ignore once again. First, do not resign John Salmons. He is another CBA caliber player that has shown nothing in his career. Next, and much more controversial, is trade Allen Iverson and rebuild around Chris Webber and Andre Iguodala.

The reason I say this is because no one in their right mind is taking C-Web off the Sixers' hands until his contract is up. I do understand that BK won't get equal value back for AI, but it's certainly possible to get a decent PG (sorry Kevin Ollie), a young SG or PF, and a pick for Iverson. Before everyone moans and groans about rebuilding that way, let me ask you this, where is Philly headed now? Nowhere, and fast.

I know C-Web is not a #1 option anymore, and never will be again, but I think in the right system (one where a single player doesn't totally dominate the ball) he can still be a quality third option with his passing, rebounding, and jump shooting ability. I truly believe that AI2 has the potential to be a #2 scoring option as well as defensive stopper. I know he hasn't really improved that much since his rookie year, but in a new system (you know by now) where he has plays designed to fit his strengths, he could really explode onto the scene with that added confidence. That leaves the team with no #1 option, but how much worse off will they really be? If they miss the playoffs again, but are more aesthetically pleasing and entertaining, I'd take that as a step in the right direction.

- Since we're on the topic of teams that drive me freaking nuts, let's move on to my new home team the Portland Trail Blazers (21-59). What an ungawdly mess they are right now. First, let's deal with the owner. How Paul Allen got so rich is beyond me. He just doesn't seem like he knows how to run a business. He let former GM Bob Whitsitt run completely wild, which in turn created an atmosphere that the franchise is still paying for it. Trader Bob was allowed to sign anyone he wanted, for anything he wanted, regardless of fit or chemistry. Then Whitsitt went ahead and cornered the market on high school prospects with checkered pasts. So who does Allen bring in to clean up the mess? None other then John Nash. No, not the crazy John Nash from 'A Beautiful Mind' (although he probably would have done a better job), the NBA John Nash that had failed miserably and been fired from every other franchise he worked for. Hey Paul, there was a reason Nash was doing TV work.

Nash's tenure has been nothing short of a disaster. He started off by unloading perennial head aches like Bonzi Wells, Jeff McInnis and Rasheed Wallace, but things went horrible wrong from there. He had what I would consider one of the worst off seasons in the history of the NBA in the summer of 2004. He started off by totally botching the 2004 draft. He took Sebastian Telfair at 13 (bust so far), Viktor Khryapa at 22 (shown some potential), Sergei Monia at 23 (already traded), and Ha Seung-Jin at 46 (a complete joke). So he had four picks and got basically nothing. Then he went on to sign Theo Ratliff through '07-08, Darius Miles through '09-10, and Zach Randolph through '10-11. Meaning he undid all the progress he made in one fell swoop.

Just for good measure, my boy Nash decided to trade the third pick in 2005 for another high schooler in Martell Webster and another PG in Jarrett Jack. Why oh why he did this I'll never know. Two easy moves he should have made besides not resigning Zach, Theo, and Darius. #1, take Al Jefferson instead of Telfair. #2, take Chris Paul with that third pick. The Blazers would have a totally different future, not to mention some semblance of a fan base, if those two simple moves were made.

If the personnel situation wasn't bad enough (and it is), Portland now is losing money hand over fist. You could blame the bad product on the court leading to no fans in the stands leading to less money coming in, but it's actually simpler then that. See, the company that paid for and ran the Rose Garden was is dire financial straights. So what does Paul Allen do? He declares bankruptcy rather then pay interest on the arena debt. Since Allen owned the company that owned the Rose Garden, he made the decision to save some coin in the short term, not taking into account what it would mean long term. What it meant long term was that the Blazers would no longer see ANY revenue from the arena. NONE. Parking, concessions, advertising, seat licensing, you name it, they don't get it. It all goes to the bank that stepped in when he declared bankruptcy. Now you get what I mean about Paul being a bad business man.

Here's my plan to fix the situation long term whether Allen sells the team or not and whether there is a new GM or not. It's nothing we here in Oregon haven't heard before, but this time it actually needs to happen no matter what. Get rid of every bad apple this summer. I don't care what the Blazers get back in return, as long as they take back less total contract years. First, don't even consider offering Voshon Lenard a new contract. Next, don't go crazy trying to resign Joel Przybilla. The "Thrilla" works hard, but is no more then a role playing big man off the bench. 3 year contract offer for him, and no more. Finally, trade Zach, Darius, Sebastian, and Travis Outlaw.

Randolph, even with all his issues and contract, will be seen as a guy who just needs a change of scenery. He is still only 25 and can play with his back to the basket. I think the market for him will be surprisingly strong. Miles will be much tougher to move, but I'm sure he still intrigues some GM out there. Telfair is young (21) and has a very reasonable salary (1.8 million), so there should be no problem dumping him. This is the only one that gives me pause. "Bassy" has shown flashes of potential, and could still be a really good player in a few years, but this is a serious house cleaning and he has to go. Outlaw is still a bit of mystery to me as far as potential goes. He's never really been given regular minutes, but again, he's been a cancer at times, so bye bye.

Portland would need to get back a few SF's and PF's in those deals to fill out their roster. Draft picks and cap relief would be nice, but are not necessary. The Blazers would obviously be terrible next season, but at least they would play hard and listen to coach Nate McMillan (an improvement). This may seem a little crazy until you factor in the final part of my plan. Since Portland would easily be the worst the team in the league again next year if they do what I say. They would also have the most ping pong balls for the lottery. Hence the Blazers would have the best shot at landing Greg Oden. If you don't know who Oden is, he's 7'0, 245 lbs, and headed to Ohio State for year long cameo. I've heard Oden compared to everyone from Bill Russell (shot blocking to teammates) to Shaquille O'Neal (back to the basket inside power game). Seriously. Can't miss franchise big men don't come along very often. Which is why I'm advocating a year long tank job in the Rose City. Remember, Portland is last in home attendance at 14,948 per game, so it's not like anyone will notice.

- Yao Ming was really some playing some fabulous ball after he returned from missing 21 games following his left toe surgery. He was moving around the court the best I had ever seen, and it was showing in his production. Just look at his March numbers: 27.6 points on 52.9% shooting including 11 rebounds and 2.1 blocks in 37.7 minutes. He was looking every bit of the best center in the game and was named Western Conference Player of the Week for the final week of March. Then he broke a bone in his left foot on 4/10 when Utah's Mehmet Okur inadvertently kicked him in the side of the foot while battling for position down low. Yao had surgery on Friday
and is expected to miss four to six months while he recovers.

Coach Jeff Van Gundy sounds worried, and rightly so. "I think the bigger concern is he's had a lot of problems with his left foot, and (big players) with foot problems are a concern. He had the ankle surgery on his left foot, the toe surgery on his left foot, now he's broken it. He broke it earlier when he was 19. So to me that's the bigger concern, and that's why it's imperative that he stays in great shape and keeps his weight down throughout his career." While I understand JVG's anxiety, I view this as a good thing for Yao long term. He won't have to play for China in the World Championships this summer. Giving him two straight summers of rest and conditioning. With what I saw from him this year, combined with the rest, I don't think it's a stretch to say Yao will be back better then ever next season.

- Playoff race updates.....

EAST - The top four seeds are locked up, but the rest is up for grabs.

5. Washington (40-40) - Mil & @Det (b2b)
Won the game they needed to on Sunday to clinch. Probably hoping the Pistons rest their starters on the final day of the season.

6. Indiana (39-41) - @Tor, Orl
Already in, but playing like garbage. They need to get something positive going in their last two games.

7. Milwaukee (39-41) - Det & @Wsh (b2b)
Already in, but struggling to find a rotation. Their last game in Washington is going to determine the fate of multiple teams.

8. Chicago (39-41) - @Orl (b2b), Tor
Got a gift from the Heat to clinch, but are still 8-2 in their last ten. With the way the teams above them are
playing, the Bulls can certainly move up.

WEST - The second and third seeds are set, but the rest of the teams are still jockeying for position.

1. San Antonio (61-19) - Uth (b2b), @Hou
Beating the hapless Rockets will be enough to clinch the best record in the West.

4. Dallas (60-21) - LAC
Made a valiant run at the top spot, but injuries probably did them in.

5. Memphis (47-33) - LAC & @Min (b2b)
Their show down Tuesday with the Clips should decide who gets #5.

6. Clippers (46-34) - @Mem & @Dal (b2b)
Do they really want to beat the Griz so they can face the Mavs in the first round?

7. Lakers (44-37) - NO/OKC
I still can't believe they made it. The Hornets will not lay down for them in the final game though.

8. Sacramento (43-38) - Sea

There should be no questions about how good Ron Artest is now. They are going to give their playoff foe all they can handle and more.

Look for my playoff series previews on the website (www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com) before each begins. Then on Monday I'll have my post season awards ballot along with the now famous tap dancing segment.

NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- This will be short and sweet, the playoffs start this week and I'll be doing series by series reviews so the real work starts next week. I've taken my remote control in to get greased up so I can watch all the series' at once.

- Last Tuesday, LA King winger Luc Robitaille announced his retirement effective after the season. Much more then Wayne Gretzky, Robitaille was the face of the King franchise. Los Angeles is often regarded as a hockey waste land because nobody gives a damn about the team unless they're winning and even then most of the interest is by the hard core fans. It's like Mike Lupica said about the Rangers, "they have 20,000 fans and they go to every game". But Robitaille always loved Los Angeles and he made it a point to tell everyone at his retirement press conference that Los Angeles was his home, it's where he learned how to speak English, where he became a man, where he met his wife, and he'll never leave. Towns like Los Angeles generally never garner that type of loyalty. If the Kings are smart, and history would indicate they aren't, they would put Robitaille in the front office immediately.


- Wanna know who's been getting a free ride in this town? Petr Nedved. The guy has been a ghost since he got here (5 goals in 26 games) but his name is never brought up when you hear about guys playing badly.

And another thing....remember when the Flyers had a crappy start and idiots like Howard Eskin were saying that it doesn't matter and nobody will even remember those games at the end of the season? Well, I remember them. And if the Flyers had won a few of those games they would have been ahead of the Rangers in the standings right now and could have been up there with the Senators and Canes and getting ready to play some stiff team like the Habs or the injury riddled Bolts in the first round of the playoffs. But no, now they'll probably have to play the Rangers or the Devils, two teams that have the Flyers number. EVERY GAME COUNTS!!

- Another crap week for the Flyers. It started with a 4 - 3 win against the lowly Penguins, a game in which they surrendered a 3 - 0 lead to one of the worst teams in the league. Then the Flyers played the Devils in the swamp and came up embarrassingly small. They lost 4 - 1 in a game that Robert Esche played very well, if he hadn't the score would have been 20 - 1. The Flyers beat the Rangers 4 - 1 at home last Saturday and just when you thought the Flyers may grab a little momentum they faced the Devils yesterday and got crushed 5 - 1. The Devils have now won 10 games in a row and are going into the playoffs like an avalanche. The Devils game was a huge game and every weapon was needed but Peter Forsberg decided to sit out because of his groin. Look, the guy is a great player, one of the best ever, but this is getting old. Keep in mind, the guy who is making the decision not to play is Forsberg himself. It's suck it up time Pete!!

Monday Morning Mehta 4/10/06

Edition # 157
April 10, 2006

Phillies

The Phillies begin their quest for a third World Series in the last 10 years by going 5-1 this week. Curt Schilling and Mark Mulder combined to go 3-0 with a sparkling 2.84 ERA. Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman hit a combined .455 with 5 home runs and 14 RBI's. The Phils continue to play great fundamental baseball and most of the credit has to go to 4 time Manager of the Year and now famously dubbed "Yankee Killer", our own Upper Darby native Mike Scioscia.

Also of note is that Sunday marked the 300th consecutive sellout at Cingular Field. The Phils are only 156 games away from breaking the Indians mark of 455 consecutive sellouts. Team Owner and CEO of Comcast Brian Roberts has guaranteed every season ticket holder free cable service for one full year if the Phillies break the record. And if you thought it couldn't get any better, 10 year Executive of the Year GM....WAKE UP....SAURIN!!....WAKE UP....YOU ARE DAYDREAMING....

Ah, this stinks! You mean we drafted J.D. Drew and got nothing for it? Why didn't we draft Troy Glaus or the next corner OF'er Lance Berkman (minor detail he was a first baseman coming out)? And then to boot, Scott Rolen & Curt Schilling got so disgusted with the organizations lack of winning and commitment to winning that we had to trade them for Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee, Nelson Figueroa, Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin and Bud Smith. 7 stiffs for 2 possible Hall of Famers?

I kept thinking all week that Ed Wade has left this team in complete mediocrity.

I really don't know what to say that I haven't said for 3 years in this column. No fundamentals, no starters that can go more than 6 or 7 innings, terrible clutch hitting, and an offense which is entirely too reliant on three run homers. Add that to terrible managing, David Bell, Mike Lieberthal, and you have the Phillies.

It's a long season, and you can't win it in April, but this is the same Phillies, and just like I wrote in last weeks predictions, I expect the same outcome of seasons past. What will get me through is that I have faith in GM Pat Gillick to make the proper moves to improve this team relatively quickly, the first of which probably comes with the firing of the manager within weeks if this ship isn't turned around.

One final note on the Phils: The more I watch around the league, the more I realize the Phillies should not be spending $9-$10 million (as last year with Wagner) and $6 mill this year with Tom Gordon on a closer. Teams can 'get by' on a relatively cheap closer, but have to have a young arm in the minors ready to close in the future. The Phillies just don't have that. Hence, Mike Arbuckle's regime really needs to end also.

Around the League

It's so hard to get any feel after two weeks of the season, but Milwaukee is going to be a decent team all year. They have some really nice pitching, and Ben Sheets won't even pitch for another week.

Washington and Florida are going to lose A LOT of games. Luckily the Phils will play them a combined 38 times. Or maybe the Marlins are saying, "Hey, we get to play the Phillies 19 times!"

It's great how the Angels have the Yankees number. Another 2 out of three by the Angels.

Jonathan Papelbon takes over as the Red Sox closer and has looked very good only giving up one hit in 4 appearances. The Red Sox look ready for a run this year, although it's early and Manny's annual August spazz attack hasn't kicked in yet.

Masters on CBS

Phil Mickleson played the best round of golf in his life to win his 2nd green jacket in impressive fashion, beating a star studded field chasing him which included Tiger Woods. I've got to eat a little crow, because I never thought Phil had what it takes to go toe to toe with Tiger. But Phil has won the last 2 majors, 3 out of the last 9, and a rivalry is possibly finally brewing here. I still want to see Tiger's "A" game, which clearly wasn't there this weekend, but Phil's confidence has to be growing which is only going to make him better. People who watch golf know that Tiger is at his best when he is playing conservative, because his conservative game is better than anyone's aggressive game. When he takes chances, most good golf courses usually burn him.
This weekend was a case where surprisingly his putter let him down.

As far as sleepers, my two biggest sleepers weren't in contention, although Luke Donald did make the cut. Next major: US Open in June.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia salvaged a terrible week (1-3) with a shellacking of Chicago on Saturday night. That win lifted the Sixers (35-41) into a tie for the 8th spot in the East, but the Bulls hold the tiebreaker, so Philly is on the outside looking in as of this morning.

From what I saw out of the Sixers this past week they certainly seem to be mailing it in, but there is still a faint glimmer of hope. Philly faces Washington, @New Jersey, @Miami & @Orlando (back to back) this week. The Sixers could very easily go 0-4 over that stretch and make many Philly fans happy by missing the playoffs.

- Playoff race breakdown's.....

EAST

1. Detroit (62-15) - Cle, @Tor, NY & @Mil (b2b), Wsh
The Pistons already have the Eastern Conference wrapped up, and unless they totally fall apart, the best record in the league too. All year long everyone in the Detroit organization has said their goal was to get home court throughout the playoffs. Mission accomplished.

2. Miami (50-27) - Tor, Phl, Chi, @Atl & @Bos (b2b)
The Heat have clinched the Southeast Division, but still have some work left to do to wrap up the second seed in the East. Miami has been struggling with injuries lately, but should have no problem beating everyone remaining on their schedule.

3. New Jersey (47-29) - @Chi & Phl (b2b), @Bos, Bos, @Phl & NY (b2b)
The Nets are the Atlantic Division champs and one of the hottest teams in the league. Their schedule is tougher then the Heat's, but with the way each club has been playing lately, NJ has to be given a legitimate chance to end up at #2.

4. Cleveland (46-30) - @NO/OKC, @Det & NY (b2b), @Wsh & @Bos (b2b), Atl
The Cavaliers have locked up a playoff berth and the 4th seed. Coach Mike Brown needs to use this time to work Larry Hughes back in to the lineup and settle on his post season rotation. I can't wait to see LeBron James in playoff action for the first time!

5. Washington (39-37) - @Phl, @Mil, @Chi, Cle, Mil & @Det (b2b)
The Wizards have an awfully tough finishing stretch, but they are playing better then all the teams below them (which isn't saying much). Look for Washington to be the fifth seed and set up the Larry Hughes reunion series in the first round.

6. Milwaukee (37-40) - Wsh, @NY & Atl (b2b), Det & @Wsh (b2b)
With two games left against the Wiz it's possible that the Bucks leap frog Washington in the standings, but not likely. Milwaukee is having chemistry problems at the wrong time of the year, and if coach Terry Stotts can't right the ship, he could be thrown overboard after the season.

7. Indiana (36-40) -NY, Bos, Min & @Chr (b2b), @Tor, Orl
The Pacers have a seemingly easy road to finish up, but not with the way they are playing. It's hard to believe, but coach Rick Carlisle seems to have lost this team. Indy is in need of a major shake up after the season because they have too much talent to be this bad.

8. Chicago (35-41) - NJ & @Atl (b2b), Wsh, @Mia & @Orl (b2b), Tor
What separates the Bulls from the teams below them is their defense (#1 in defensive field goal percentage at 42.8%). While Chicago is the favorite to get swept by Detroit in round one, I don't expect them to run away and hide from the competition because their schedule is pretty tough.

Philadelphia (35-41) -Wsh, @NJ, @Mia & @Orl (b2b), NJ & @Chr (b2b)
The Sixers are floundering around like a wounded animal begging to be put out of it's misery these days. The schedule maker was not kind to Philly with that finishing stretch either. The only "gimmie" the Sixers have remaining is against the Bobcats on the final day of the season, which will probably be too late to matter.

Orlando (32-44) - Atl, Tor & @SA (b2b), Phl, Chi, @Ind
The Magic are playing their best ball of the season at the right time, but it may be too little too late. What helps Orlando's cause is that they play Philly and Chicago once more at home. If the season was
one week longer, I'd really like the Magic's chances. As is, I'm still not ready to count them out.

Boston (32-45) - @Ind, NJ, @NJ & Cle (b2b), Mia
It's hard to believe that the Celtics are still alive, but that goes to show you how bad the East is. Boston won't be favored in any of their remaining games, so they will need the teams above them to totally collapse to make it. I guess anything's possible in the East.

WEST

1. San Antonio (59-18) - Sea, Orl, @Min & Uth (b2b), @Hou
The Spurs' patented late season push has not materialized this year, and SA is looking surprisingly vulnerable right now. Beating the Rockets on the final day of the season will be very important if SA ends up tied with Dallas (they split the season series and division record is the second tiebreaker).

2. Phoenix (50-26) - @Sac, Dal & @GS (b2b), @LAL & NO/OKC (b2b), @Por
The Suns have clinched a playoff berth and will win the Pacific Division barring a total implosion. All is not well in Phoenix right now though. Ever since Amare Stoudemire's failed comeback, something has been off with the Suns. It's up to GM/coach Mike D'Antoni to figure out what it is and fix it quickly.

3. Denver (43-34) - @Por, @Uth, Sac, Hou, @Sea
The Nuggets are going to win the Northwest Division almost by default. Denver looks likely to get the third seed and start the post season on the road. The Nugs need to win the rest of their games and hope that either the Clippers or Memphis falters down the stretch to have a chance at home court in the first round.

4. Dallas (58-19) - @LAC, @GS & @Phx (b2b), Uth, LAC
Losing Keith Van Horn for the year with a broken right hand is a big blow to the Mavericks' depth. KVH was Dirk Nowitzki's primary back up at PF, and Dallas really doesn't have anyone to replace what KVH brings (or another backup PF for that matter). The Mavs will almost certainly have to win out to win the West.

5. Clippers (44-32) - Dal (b2b), Por, @Sea, Sea, @Mem & @Dal (b2b)
Los Angeles is hard team to figure out. One game they look great, and the next terrible. Defense is the Clips one constant though. LA has a great inside outside attack on offense when things are going well too. The Clips have a tough road the rest of the way, and their game in Memphis on 4/18 could decide who winds up fifth.

6. Memphis (44-33) - Min & @Chr (b2b), @Hou, LAC & @Min (b2b)
I'm not sure there's a good team flying more under the radar then the Grizzlies. Coach Mike Fratello has had them playing playoff style ball all year long, and that should help them out down the stretch and on into the first round. Memphis' remaining schedule is pretty easy, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them finish up at #5.

7. Sacramento (41-37) - Phx, @Den & NO/OKC (b2b), Sea
The Kings are the proverbial "team that no one wants to play" right now. Since Ron Artest joined them Sacto is 23-13. They are just coming into their own chemistry wise and have not yet reached their full potential as a team. If I was a fan of the Phoenix Suns, I'd be concerned.

8. Lakers (41-37) - GS, Por, Phx, NO/OKC
The fact that Los Angeles is still in the playoff chase just goes to show you how great Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson are at their respective jobs. The Lakers have some pretty serious holes, but they are headed in the right direction. The game against the Hornets on the final day of the season could be HUGE.

Utah (37-39) - Hou, Den, @NO/OKC, @Dal & @SA (b2b), GS
Who knows how good the Jazz could have been if Carlos Boozer was healthy all year? Utah's closing schedule is brutal, but if coach Jerry Sloan sticks with his current starting lineup and rotation, and the team continues to get better, they still have an outside shot at #8.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City (37-39) - Cle, Sea, Uth, @Sac & @Phx (b2b), @LAL
I know there are no moral victories in professional sports, but the Hornets still being in contention has got to be the exception. Nobody thought this team was post season material in the pre-season. Nobody. However, I'm afraid that NO/OKC's three game road trip to close the year is going to be the end of their Cinderella story.


NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser

- Sorry I missed last week but there was just something I had to do. I took a trip to Los Angeles and tracked down the actor from the Red Roof Inn commercials that sings "mul-ti-tasking" and says "the chances of me working are...remote. HAHAHAHAHA". I tracked him down and bashed him the face with a frying pan. Words can't describe my hatred of that commercial. So now that that's out of my system it's hockey time.....

- Whoever Maple Leaf goalie Eddie Belfour's agent is, that guy makes Scott Boras look like a rank amateur. Belfour got himself a 3 year deal in July of 2004, a few months before the lockout was about to start. The contract paid Belfour a $2 million signing bonus to be paid in full at the time of the signing the contract. That's right, the Leafs paid Eddie "The Ego" $2 million for not playing in 2004 - 2005. But we're just getting started....Belfour made $4.56 million this year, that's $4.56 million for a 40 year old injury prone goalie. By the way Belfour had a crap season (22 W, 22 L, 3.29 GAA, 89.2 save %) and was put on the DL for back problems a few weeks ago, ending his season. Belfour is due to make $4.8 million next year but he'll most definitely be bought out for $1.52 million. Just to review, that's $3.52 million to NOT play hockey. But here's the kicker, when the Leafs buy him out it all counts against the cap. The salary, the buyout money, all of it. A Ranger-esque performance by the Leaf management.

- QUICK!! Name me 3 players on the Buffalo Sabres.....OK, 2 players. No, Dominick Hasek is on the Senators, try again. It ain't easy is it. But they play an amazing team system that's European in design and they just clinched their first playoff birth since 2001. I think they have a legitimate shot to win it all. (But Ed, you said before the season the Sabres wouldn't do anything) SHUT UP!! I know what I said, how was I supposed to know this loose knit band of renegades would take to the new NHL so well. Plus they're getting great goaltending from Martin Biron. (Wait, THEE Martin Biron? The kid the Flyers could have had for a roll of tape, a slurpee, and a pair of socks to be named later?) Yeah him. He's stopping everything now. Nobody wants to face the Sabres in the playoffs. Nobody.

- Two very significant retirements recently. The shocking retirement of Mark from all MTV Gauntlet and Inferno challenges stunned America. And the fact that MTV allowed it to happen with such little fan fare with the exception of the symbolic passing of the bandana to Derrick was equally shocking. MTV should have at least had a video compilation of Mark's challenge highlights with "Wind Beneath My Wings" playing in the background. Also, the Devils retired Ken Daneyko's number 3. First of all, Devils announcer Mike Emmrick should be hired by the league to emcee all major NHL events...the guy is that good. I hate the Devils but when I was listening to Emmrick he really made me care about Daneyko and the Devils. I forgot that when Daneyko got to the Devils how putrid the franchise was. Daneyko was there from the outhouse to the penthouse. Daneyko never wore another NHL sweater besides a Devils' sweater and he went out while lifting the Stanley Cup which is pretty storybook. After going over Daneyko's stats and some of the injuries he sustained Emmrick looked at the crowd and said "and he did it all for you". Perfect...and the crowd went insane. It was definitely a cool ceremony, in part because it was short and to the point, unlike the rambling, 'Is this close to being over?', self important-a-thon that was Mark Messier's Rangers number retirement ceremony.

- I found a cool website devoted to the worst owner in all of pro sports (Bill Giles?). No, Blackhawks owner Bill Wirtz. It's www.wirtzsucks.com

- The owner of The United Hockey League's Danbury Trashers James Galante is in trouble with the FBI, IRS, and state police because of alleged ties to the mafia. As the name indicates Galante made his money in waste management, I'm not sure if you know who runs that business but I assure you it's not the Boy Scouts. 5 ex-Trasher players got subpoenas to testify against Galante and one of the people to get a subpoena was Brent Gretzky, brother of NHL coach John Torchetti. Just kidding, it's Wayne's brother. Who would have thought the Gretzky family would have so many links to the mob? Between Janet Jones, Wayne's best buddy Rick Tocchet, and his brother Brent, Wayne Gretzky is like Tom Hagen in the "Godfather".

- The Penguins announced that next year they will "re-retire" Mario Lemieux's number 66. They will redo the ceremony, re-lift the banner to the rafters, Lemieux will re-give a speech, and the Penguins will re-hope for a repeat of the last Lemieux retirement ceremony and the Penguins will get a re-sellout.

- Another mediocre week for the Flyers. Before I forget, wanna know what I'm good on? Announcers complaining about goalies playing well and then losing the game in a shoot out. It's part of the game now, it's not going anywhere, and the fans love it...GET USED TO IT!! So the Flyers lost to the Rangers in a shoot out 3 - 2 last Tuesday. It was a game the Flyers needed to be able to pass the Rangers and get home ice advantage in the playoffs and face the Devils in the first round. But they blew their chance. They did win 4 - 2 against the Sabres in Buffalo which was nice because it proved they could beat them. Then Saturday it all went down the toilet when they lost 5 - 2 to the Maple Leafs in a game in which the Flyers looked like they were chasing their tails. Oh, and Forsberg's groin is hurt again so he's in and out of the line up. I don't even know what to say....the Flyers have tons of talent, a good coach, but they are so inconsistant. Who knows, maybe they'll capture lightning in a bottle and make a major run in the playoffs but I doubt it.

- Quick note from Bada Boom Racing, Fort Seattle is running tomorrow in the 9th race at Philly Park. He has a very, very good chance in this race. Just putting it out there.

Monday Morning Mehta 4/3/06

Edition # 156
April 3, 2006 - "Opening Day"

The first Monday in April should be a National Holiday. Opening Day, the NCAA title game, and today, the return of Derreck Sura. In fact, everyone just get up and leave your work and take the day off - you deserve it (after reading below of course).

Ed Wasser returns next week.

NL Preview

NL East

Atlanta - 93 wins
See MMM from 52 weeks ago: "Anybody that picks anybody besides the Braves to win the division is thinking too hard" Ed Wasser circa March 2005. Does this team have problems? Many.
Problem # 1 - Let's start with their closer, Chris Reitsma. He's a three run homer waiting to happen. But the bullpen is young and deep this year. When Reitsma falters, the Braves have many options, the best might be young hurler Joey Devine who Phillies fans will get to know real quick.
Problem # 2 - Loss of Rafael Furcal.
Problem # 3 - No Leo Mazzone.
Not a problem - Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, a healthy Chipper Jones in the middle of the lineup to go with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of a very deep rotation.
Breakout year? Look for Kyle Davies to step up and be a quality front line starter.

Philadelphia - 86 wins

You know, when I started to look around the NL at possible teams that could make the playoffs, I really didn't intend to have the Phillies as one of them. But if you look at the weaknesses of this team, they really aren't as bad as some of the other teams around the league. The pitching has no front line guy, which will hurt them in the long run, but they have an adequate 1 through 5. In the end, they'll fall one or two games out of the playoffs just like they did last year.

Offense - This offense revolves around the first two guys in the order (some combination of Rollins and Nunez/Rowand). If these guys get on base consistently (.360 OB% and above), this team will be fine on offense. If not, it'll be 10 runs one game and 2 the next just like the last 3 seasons.

Starters - As I said above, no ace, but Lieber and Myers are quality # 2's, and Lidle, Madson and Floyd are probably adequate. Problem is, Madson and Floyd have very little experience, and will probably get roughed up the 2nd time around the league.

Bullpen - The closers spot isn't improved, but I definitely like the depth getting to Gordon. Rhodes is a solid lefty set up guy, and Fultz and Santana should have good years as 7th inning guys. Again, decent, but not playoff material.

Bench - The release of Tomas Perez is a good sign. Sal Fasano is a much better backup than Todd Pratt. And the addition of David Delucci off the bench brings something the Phillies needed, a pinch hitter who can actually effect an opposing manager's decision making.

Coaching - Cholly showed last year, he's not a great in game manager. But the players like playing for him, but that will only last another year. Manuel's definitely on the hot seat with a new GM in town, and a bad start could get him fired.

Management - Pat Gillick gets a year to put his players in place, and next year to show what he's got as far as I'm concerned. He's trying to restock the farm system which is something I like to see. Ed Wade was awful at in season trades, I'm hoping Gillick can make some better moves in July & August.

New York Mets - 85 wins
This is the popular pick to win the NL or at least get the wild card, but there's something missing. Pedro hasn't been the same since his toe injury, and he's still not fully recovered apparently. Tom Glavine is 40 years old, although he pitched great in September last year. And the 3 through 5 is very iffy. Sorry Frank, this column is going to be a tough one for you to read, but the Mets will be golfing in October again.

Florida - 77 wins
Dan Uggla, Reggi Abercrombie, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Olivo, and Eric Reed. That's your offensive guys surrounding Miguel Cabrera. Look for Hermida to win Rookie of the Year, and the rest have their struggles, but show flashes of brilliance. This is a team to watch out for in 2008.

Washington - 72 wins
Sometimes you just know it's going to be a long season in spring training. The Alfonso Soriano disaster should have been a sign to the Nationals. Another possible ROY - Ryan Zimmerman.

NL Central

St. Louis - 95 wins
Add Scott Rolen to an already playoff team and I just can't not have the Cards winning the division again. Add that to the excitement of a new ballpark, and St. Louis should be the # 1 seed in the NL. They'll need to make a trade for an offensive player, possibly an OF'er at the deadline, but their history shows they will.

Houston - 88 wins
Everyone is down on the Astros again. I'm not so sure. Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte are about as good as it gets. I think Roger Clemens will resign with the Astros on May 1st. I think Preston Wilson will help this offense a great deal. The X-factor is Brandon Backe. He needs to step up as a quality starter. The bullpen is solid, and the 865 foot home run Brad Lidge gave up to Albert Pujols in last years NLCS shouldn't have an effect on them.

Chicago - 83 wins
I'm tired of projecting how this team looks with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. But I'll say this, if they have Wood, Zambrano, Prior, Rusch and Maddux for every start after the all star break, they could go on a 55-15 streak for sure and be the favorites to win it all. But it's not realistic to expect those two at 100%.

Milwaukee - 81 wins
If I had any guts I'd pick this team as the wild card. Prince Fielder, Cecil's kid, looks ready to play and will challenge Hermida and Zimmerman for ROY.

Cincy - 73 wins
Pitching is starting to improve, but just not there yet. Aaron Harang is starting to emerge as a potential ace, but still needs some refining. Bronson Arroyo is a nice pickup, but in that ballpark anything can happen.

Pitts - 68 wins
Sometimes you wonder what the fork an organization is thinking. The Pirates signed Sean Casey, a decent but aging first baseman, with Brad Eldred, a home run hitting, Ryan Howard like presence first baseman in the minors. They also signed retread Jeremy Burnitz. A great pitching staff, but a team who will get beat 3-2 and 2-1 often this year.

NL West

LA Dodgers - 85 wins
By far this is the toughest division to call because of how bad it is. Somebody has to win the division here. I'll go with the team with the best pitching. Three decent starters and a good bullpen, to go with an average lineup. I sound pretty convincing don't I? They'll need to make a trade in July for another bat preferably to play the OF, but for now, it'll do.

Barry Bonds - 83 wins
This team is night and day depending on Bonds. With him in the lineup, they're a force to be reckoned with. Without him, they're a sub -.500 team. Jason Schmidt's health is another huge concern. His days of throwing 95 in the 8th inning seem to be a thing of the past, but word is he's healthy again this spring. He's also in his contract year so he'll be motivated. Definitely a contender this year but with health issues I just can't pick em.

D'Backs - 77 wins
Again, if I was being crazy, I'd pick this as the division winner. This team definitely has the makings of a division winner in 2008, with one of the best farm systems in the game. But the pitching just isn't ready yet.

Padres - 76 wins
Jesse's kid Josh Barfield plays 2nd base. I don't like when a team signs Vinny Castilla. Even worse, they signed Shawn Estes. He'll be good because I can be decent at Petco, but not good enough.

Rockies - 70 wins
This team is below average and they play in a bad ballpark to be below average. Lots of 7-5 losses.

PREDICTIONS!!

In the AL, I have the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and A's as the playoff teams. Just to be different, I'll pick the A's to win the AL. I really think the Yankees are primed to make another run at the World Series, but that's like picking Tiger Woods to win the Masters, too easy (which ironically I will do later on).
No Ed Wasser today, he'll be back next week.

In the NL, my playoff teams are the Braves, Cards, Astros, and Dodgers. I think the Cardinals are the team to beat in the NL, and I'll go with them out of the NL. A new stadium, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Philly favorite Scott Rolen will hold the trophy at the end of October. St. Louis Cardinals your 2006 World Series Champions, which goes against all experts picks who say the NL is the weaker sister to the AL. NEVER!!! The DH sucks!!

March Madness

In what was possibly the greatest first two weeks in NCAA tournament history, we get two complete dud games in the Final Four. Everyone roots for teams like Duke, UConn, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Michigan St, etc to lose early in the tournament, but when it comes down to the Final Four and you have a lot of unknown teams, you get dis-interest.

UCLA's Ben Howland is showing how great of a coach he is, and his defensive teams are awesome.
Masters on CBS

I've written WAY too much already, so I'll keep this short. Anyone who picks the Masters and doesn't pick Tiger Woods just isn't paying attention. And of course gun to my ever growing head, yes, Tiger Woods is my pick. But let's look at Wild Card picks, guys who can sneak up and win this thing.
Jose Maria Olazabal - playing great golf so far this year, and always plays well at Augusta.
Chris DiMarco - playing rather crappy so far this year, otherwise he'd be the # 2 pick as he's been so close the last two years.
Luke Donald - it's going to take alot to win a major so quickly from this guy, but there probably isn't a better player younger than 30 (now that Woods is 30)
Rory Sabbatini - Everyone hates Sabbatini because he's slow and a complete hot head yet nobody ever says anything, so it would be funny to see him win - and he's playing very well this year
Lefty - If Tiger's anywhere near the leaderboard, I don't see Phil winning. (Not a wild card pick)
Tom Lehman - This and Donald are my favorite sleeper picks.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia went 11-17 since the last time I wrote about them. I'm not sure you could expect much more then that either, especially when you consider their league wide rankings. Take a look at what I wrote in my first MMM of the regular season (edition #139).

"Keep in mind, there are only 30 teams in the NBA. The Sixers are 30th in points allowed per game (111 ppg) and rebounds per game (34.5 rpg). They are 29th in opponent's field goal percentage (50.5% !!! ) and total rebounding percentage (42.9%). Lastly, Philly is tied for 28th in rebound differential (-11.3 rpg)."

The Sixers are now 25th in points allowed per game (101.7 ppg), total rebounding percentage (48.4%), and rebound differential (-2.6 rpg). They are 23rd in opponent's field goal percentage (46.3%) and 19th in rebounds per game (40.5).

When you break it down, Philly has improved a little in these very important categories from the first
week of the season, but not enough.

Opponent's field goal percentage from 50.5% to 46.3% (league ranking 29th to 23rd).
Points allowed per game from 111 ppg to 101.7 ppg (30th to 25th).
Total rebounding percentage from 42.9% to 48.4% (29th to 25th).
Rebounds per game from 34.5 rpg to 40.5 rpg (30th to 19th).
Rebound differential from -11.3 rpg to -2.6 rpg (28th to 25th).

I think the reasons are partly coaching and partly lack of talent, but when a team can't defend or rebound (much less finish games), you can't expect them to be above .500.

While I'm quoting some early season stuff, it's time to break out this gem from comments section regular Frank Tang. After my Eastern Conference preview (edition #137) he laid this meatball over the plate. "Maybe I'm an optimist, but I have the Sixers winning between 47 and 53 games. That should be good enough for at least home court in the first round."

(This one has nothing to do with my point, but it's too good not to re-print. "John Salmons will have a shot to prove that he's a great player.")

I may have said this before, and I will surely say it again, but Philly has performed EXACTLY as I thought they would. Where I was wrong is that I thought the Eastern Conference would be much improved this year, and it wasn't.

The Sixers (34-38) currently hold down the 8th spot in the East by two losses over Chicago. This week brings Philly: @Cleveland & Chicago (back to back) then Boston & @Chicago (B2B). To say this is a big week for the Sixers is an understatement. They can virtually lock up a post season berth ... or ... make the race for the final playoff spot very interesting. I'll say they lose to the Cavaliers and split with Chicago. The Celtics' game is key to the week in my mind.

(If you were wondering how many games I had the Sixers winning, here's what I had to say in response to ftaok back in October...

"53 games? No shot the Sixers even sniff that. This is the same crew that won 43 games last year, and suddenly they're supposed to be 10 games better because of Cheeks, Hunter, and Nailon? I don't like to predict win total's, but the over/under on Sixers' wins in Vegas is 41.5. I think that's about right. If they win 42 that will be enough to get them into the playoffs. As far as home court goes, you've got to be kidding. The Pacers, Heat, Pistons, and Cavs are easily going to be better then the Sixers. That's not even counting the Nets, who have got to be the favorites to win the Atlantic.")

By the way, MMM himself had Philly going "45-37" this season.

- As we always do here at MMM with one month to go the regular season, it's time to see which teams play defense and can win on road to give us an indication of who the "real" contenders are. Unfortunately, since I was on vacation this report is two weeks late and comes with only 16 days until the end of the season. As of today there are seven teams within one game of .500 on the road.

Detroit 26-11
San Antonio 26-12
Dallas 24-13
Phoenix 21-15
Miami 20-18
New Jersey 18-19
Houston 17-18

Below are the same seven teams listed in order of league ranking in opponent's field goal percentage.

#2 Rockets 42.8%
#4 Spurs 43.2%
#5 Nets 43.8%
#8 Heat 44%
#10 Mavericks 44.3%
#12 Pistons 45.1%
#15 Suns 45.3%

ESPN.com's statistical guru John Hollinger created a stat called "defensive efficiency" which measures the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. According to him this is a better measure of defensive acumen because it takes "pace factor" into account. Pace factor is the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minute game (his formula to come to this number is TMI). So the formula for defensive efficiency goes like this: Start with the number of points a team allows per 48 minutes and divide by its Pace Factor. Then multiply the result by 100. Simple, eh? In a new feature this year, here are the same teams listed in order of defensive efficiency.

#1 San Antonio 96.4
#3 New Jersey 99.8
#4 Detroit 99.9
#8 Houston 100.6
#9 Miami 101.6
#11 Dallas 101.9
#14 Phoenix 102.3

All of those teams are solidly in the post season with the exception of the Rockets, who have been derailed by Tracy McGrady's multiple back injuries. Barring an upset, the Eastern Conference Finals will almost certainly be the Pistons against either the Heat or Nets. The West is far less settled, and looks like it will have some pretty serious second round match ups with the Spurs versus the Mavs or Clippers and the Suns against Denver or Memphis. Detroit and San Antonio are obviously the favorites, but they are not the locks that some analysts would have you believe. I'll have much more on this in the coming weeks.

- I've been watching the Orlando Magic very closely since they acquired Darko Milicic. Granted I missed nine of his games while I was in Holland, but I've seen him in action at least a little in the twelve other games he's appeared in since being traded. I've got to say, I'm impressed. That's not to say he's been great or anything, but trust me, the kid has the tools to be an NBA contributor. Which means he is hardly the bust many have been claiming. Just look at his numbers for proof. In 21 games with Orlando Darko has averaged 7.8 points on 54.3% shooting to go along with 4.6 rebounds and 2.38 blocks in only 21.5 minutes off the bench. Except for the blocks, and maybe the field goal percentage, none of those numbers jump off the page at you, but at the very least they prove he belongs.

I'm not saying he was worthy of the number two pick in 2003 yet, but he is still only 20 years old and basically a rookie when it comes to court time. Milicic has a bit of a nasty streak, can play with his back to the basket, make an open jumper, and has already displayed that innate instinct all great shot blocker possess. Don't get me wrong here, he still has plenty of room for improvement.

The first thing he needs to do is build up his stamina. Much like a young Yao Ming, Darko gets tired after only a few trips running up and down the floor. That could be because he's not used to playing regular minutes though, so he gets a pass on that until next year. The next thing he needs to do is get more aggressive on the glass. 4.6 rebounds a game is not going to cut it when you are 7'0, 250 lbs. It's really more then the numbers though. Too many times I see Darko just standing around when a shot goes up. Now I don't know if that's part of the stamina thing or not, but if he's going to be a productive role player, that has to change. The last thing I noticed is that his focus tends to wane a la a young Vlade Divac. Again, that could be because he's tired, but I don't think so. This is what is most disturbing to me, and the thing that could prevent him from reaching his full potential. As guys like Billy Owens and many others have shown us, talent isn't enough to make you great, you've got to want it.

To put Milicic in perspective right now, I compare him to Milwaukee Bucks' rookie Andrew Bogut (21 years old, and likely first team all rookie). They both are shooting above 52% from the field, have good low post games, solid mid-range J's, some toughness to their demeanor, and neither gets an ounce of respect from the referees. Bogut is the better passer. Darko the better shot blocker. What separates them right now is Andrew's work on the boards. At this point I'm not really sure who will be the better player in five years. I'm already on record (edition #151) saying that I think Bogut "will be a very good player for 10+ years", so that should tell you enough about my feelings on Milicic.

The Magic (29-44) have a very bright future with young guys like Darko, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Hedo Turkoglu, and Trevor Ariza (if they resign him). Those six players give the Magic two bigs, two PG's, and two SF's (one a shooter and one a defender). Orlando will also have massive salary cap room after next season when Grant Hill's contract expires. If co-GM's Dave Twardzik and Otis Smith are smart about spending that money, there could be a new dynasty in the making in Central Florida.

- Amare Stoudemire's "comeback" began while I was away. In his first game back (against Portland mind you) he had 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 19 minutes. The next game he played 17 minutes and had 6 points, 5 rebounds, and a block. I didn't see either of those performances, but I did witness his third game in which he "jumped" center to open the game. The reason jump is in quotes is because when the official threw the ball up, Amare didn't even bother to try and elevate. That's right, he just stood there in the circle. He went on to not score a point (0-6 from the field) and grab 2 rebounds in 14 minutes of action. He has since been shelved "indefinitely".

First things first, I do NOT blame Amare for any of this. The kid is 23 years old, just signed a mega-contract, and wants very badly to help one of the best teams in the league win a ring. Which leads me to the Phoenix "brain trust", if you want to call them that. This group includes owner Robert Sarver, coach and newly minted GM Mike D'Antoni, and Vice President David Griffin. I can only say to them, what the hell were youz thinking? This kid has long career ahead of him and was only one of the most uniquely dominating inside players to come down the pipe in recent history. So why, knowing that micro-fracture surgery is practically a death sentence for NBA players, did the notion of him even playing at all this year cross their minds? I can already hear my colleague Ed Wasser saying something along the lines of "the future is now." Well, the Suns' short sightedness may have ensured that the future is never because now both of Stoudemire's knees ache.

His latest MRI from last Thursday showed inflammation in the hamstrings and calves of both legs, but continued healing and no complications with his surgically repaired left knee. Umm, OK. I guess that's good news, but why is he experiencing "stiffness" in his right knee now? I don't think the answer is that difficult when you think about it. Inflamed muscles in both legs + stiffness in the good knee = he rushed his rehab along so he could he play this year. After only being able to go in three games, I don't think there's any disputing that he wasn't ready to come back. Again, I don't blame Amare. This is a franchise decision, and I have to wonder if this happens the same way if Bryan Colangelo is still in charge.
As I understand it, micro-fracture surgery is the drilling of small holes (microscopic) in and around the knee bone to stimulate cartilage growth. The reason for it is so players don't end up with the dreaded "bone on bone" thing in their knee joint. The only guy to ever come back and resemble his former self after this surgery is Jason Kidd (maybe Zach Randolph too). And as I remember it, Kidd took tons of heat for his rehab schedule and limited playing time upon his return. I've said from the start that Amare should have followed Kidd's schedule to a tee, if not contacted the person in charge of Jason's rehab.

I read a few things saying what a bad sign it was that Amare needed this surgery at such a young age in the first place. As it stands right now, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that Stoudemire's career may be in jeopardy. I'm sure he'll play again, but I'd say it's no better then 50-50 that he'll return to his old form. Which is not good news for someone that relied on their athleticism as much as Amare did. Who would've ever thought tearing your ACL would be preferable to something/anything?
Don't miss my comprehensive breakdown of all the playoff races next week!

*Note: All statistical data does not include Sunday's games.