NBA Playoffs Preview - Round 1

NBA SPECIAL FRIDAY PLAYOFF EDITION - DERRECK SURA

As the playoffs begin, I have to comment on one thing. The current seeding situation must be changed. There is no way the Denver Nuggets, who finished with the worst record among the playoff teams in the West at 44-38 (the Nugs lose the tiebreaker with Sacramento 3-1), deserve to be the 3rd seed. Number one, it throws the whole playoffs out of whack.

Number two, it makes for too many meaningless late season games. Even worse, it creates circumstances where it benefits a team to lose (hello Clippers). According to Commissioner David Stern, the Competition Committee is going to address this situation in the off season. My problem with the rumored new "plan" is that it's going to create similar problems. The new idea includes seeding the three division winners, along with the team with the best record otherwise, one to four based on overall record. In this new scenario, where Denver would still be seeded fourth instead of eighth, all four teams would get home court advantage regardless of record or tiebreakers. Which would mean the Nugs would have home court over the Grizzlies this season, even though Denver loses the tiebreaker.

My solution is simple: Seed one to eight based on record. The end of the regular season would be far more interesting if the seeding went strictly by record. I just don't see what the hang up is? The Nugs, or the winner of any crappy division in the future, would still get to hang a banner in their arena and sell Division Winner merchandise. Maybe my proposal just makes too much sense is all.

- I know this is a sure fire way jinx yourself, but I feel I owe to the gamblers amongst my readership to inform them that I have gone 8-0 in the first round ofthe playoffs the past two seasons. Not being agambler myself, I don't know what kind of odds you could get in Vegas just picking the winners of all eight series' straight up, but I bet they'd be pretty nice. Of course, I have to win all eight for the big payday. No pressure though.

EAST

Washington v Cleveland - I'm very excited to see LeBron James in action for the first time in the postseason. If you didn't already know, this kid is special, and I can't wait to see him take his game to the next level. I expect this series to be extremely competitive. The Wizards have the better staring five, but the Cavaliers have the stronger bench. I'm not a big fan of either coach, and neither team is great defensively, but Washington has the edge in experience because they made it to the second round last year. Cleveland has to establish Zydrunas Ilgauskas down low early in each game. Not only is he the best post player in the series, but the Wiz' frontline is very foul prone. Washington will want to turn the games into a track meet and hope they have enough fire power to out score the Cavs.

Key match up - Gilbert Arenas & Larry Hughes. I know they don't play the same position, but Hughes is Cleveland's best defender and should draw the near impossible task of checking Arenas in critical situations. What makes this match up intriguing is how both players are already chirping about how they are happy to be facing each other and can't wait toget it on. Gil feels betrayed, and Larry wants to prove he made the right decision in leaving D.C. Bulletin board material ahoy!

Prediction - Each team is going to get blown out once as well as win a game on the road. I can't go against LeBron in a deciding game at home. Cavs in 7.

Chicago v Miami - The Bulls are the hottest teamcoming into the post season. The Heat? Not so much. Chicago has been playing in a virtual playoffs for about three weeks now, while Miami has been struggling with injuries, consistency, chemistry, and the general malaise that seems to affect all Shaquille O'Neal led teams. The Heat have a massive edge in big game experience and much more beef down low. Two things give the Bulls a punchers chance here. One, they are used to playing way harder then Miami is. Two, Chicago finished with the best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA (42.6%). This will be a big time wake up call for Miami. The Heat have been thinking they can just turn it on all season long, even though they have not shown any signs of having an"on" switch to date.

Key match up - Ben Gordon & Dwyane Wade. If Gordon doesn't have it going, the Bulls have trouble scoring enough points to win. Dwyane is a good defender, but I think Ben is a little quicker then Wade is. Dwyane may need to lay off Gordon a little and rely on his length to bother Ben's jumper. Gordon has never shownany interest in playing defense, so he will have totry and run Wade ragged on the offensive end and hope Dwyane wears down. Prediction - I think this series will be surprisingly competitive, but Miami should be fine as long as they take advantage of their superiority down low. Heat in 5.

Indiana v New Jersey - The Pacers have been playing like crap for the past month. The Nets, on the other hand, were super hot for a month before putting it into cruise control to finish the season. That's why I was very surprised when I looked at the numbers and saw just how even these teams were in terms of league wide rank in several categories. Both clubs are well coached, play great defense, and have plenty of playoff experience. On offense, Indy prefers the half court, but they have improved their transition game as of late. NJ loves to run, but they can also play slow down ball with the best of them. Neither team has a great bench, but the Nets have the better starting five. It's hard for me to find a significant advantage for either side, which is why I think this series could be more viable then people think.

Key match up - Peja Stojakovic & Richard Jefferson. Peja has already said that he is going to opt out of his contract after the season, so you know he wants to play well here. One problem. RJ is a great defender, and will shadow Stojakovic throughout the series. Peja is really going to have to work hard to get his shot off. On the flip side, can Stojakovic stay with Jefferson on defense? And if he can, will Peja have anything left on the offensive end? Millions of dollars hang in the balance...

Prediction - The Pacers could either get swept or win the series depending on how consistent their effort level is. I'll take NJ's stars in the end though. Nets in 6.

Milwaukee v Detroit - This is your typical "David vs. Goliath" scenario. The team with the best record overall facing the only sub .500 squad to make the playoffs. When you look at the Bucks' roster on paper, they have a little bit of everything, but for some reason it just hasn't come together for them. Milwaukee played the Pistons relatively tough in their four meetings this year. The Bucks lost three close games and won a meaningless game (for Detroit) late in the season. That said, other then maybe rebounding, there's really nothing Milwaukee does better then the Pistons. The most glaring difference in the clubs is defense. Even though Detroit is not the same as they were, the Pistons are still far superior to the Bucks on that end. Milwaukee needs to focus on playing for the full 48 minutes, then hope for some breaks.

Key match up - Michael Redd & Richard Hamilton. Redd averaged 30 points on 55% shooting from the field against Detroit this year. What's even more impressive is that he shot an unreal 73.9% from behind the arc. What makes that feat especially notable is that the Pistons finished first in 3-point defense this season (32.5%). I'm sure Detroit will guard Michael by committee, but it's up to Rip to use his movement without the ball to try and tire Redd out so his legs aren't there in the fourth quarter.

Prediction - The Bucks have a bright future and need to use this as a learning experience. The Pistons can have an injury and still win this series. Detroit in 5.

WEST

Sacramento v San Antonio - As crazy as it may sound, I think these two team's starters are pretty evenly matched. The Spurs have a better bench and more experience together, but it's not like the Kings are bereft in either of those two categories themselves. This series is going to be a knock down drag out scuffle all the way. Both clubs excel at running their half court sets and playing solid defense. Sacto has enough big bodies to throw at the less then 100% Tim Duncan. The big worry for the Kings will bekeeping Tony Parker out of the lane. Not many players have the quickness to stay in front of TP, so swift defensive rotations out to SA's shooters is a must for Sacto. The Kings are still coming together as a team, and I couldn't think of a better time for them to hit their stride.

Key match up - Ron Artest & Manu Ginobili. I don't think Manu will be guarding Artest, but this is still the main event. Ginobili has been slowed by a myriad of injuries all season long, and there is no relief insight for his aching body. Ron-Ron loves to get physical, and I guarantee that he is salivating (literally) at the opportunity to lock Manu down. Being that Ginobili is usually the Spurs' X-factor, if Artest can keep him under control, that will be HUGE for Sacto.

Prediction - This series has the potential to get ugly. As in some extracurricular activities. In the end SA's depth will be difference though. Spurs in 6.

Clippers v Denver - This should be a high quality series between two up and coming young teams with somewhat contrasting styles. The Nuggets are going to want to get out and run. While Los Angeles would prefer to pound the ball down low and let their postup players dictate play. The Clips rebound the ball and shoot it from distance better then Denver, but most importantly, LA is the healthier squad right now. The Nugs obviously have more post season experience, but to succeed they are really going to need the defense and rebounding newcomers Ruben Patterson and Reggie Evans bring. Carmelo Anthony was much improved this year, but he has yet to establish himself in the playoffs. Both clubs feature big time closers in Melo and Sam Cassell, so the final moments of close games could be very entertaining to watch.

Key match up - Elton Brand & Kenyon Martin. K-Mart is going to have his hands full trying to contain Brand with a gimpy left knee. Kenyon's best bet is to use his speed (if he's able) to either beat Elton down the floor or go by him off the dribble. Brand is a highly underrated defender, so Martin's minimal post up game should pose no threat to him. Kenyon is very susceptible to a good pump fake, so if EB utilizes that well, K-Mart will almost certainly end up in foul trouble.

Prediction - I don't see this series as evenly matched as most do. If the Clips were more consistent, it wouldn't be close. As is, I see it going the distance. LA in 7.

Lakers v Phoenix - Los Angeles is the trendy upset pick in the national media. I wish agreed. Sure the Lakers have been playing better then the Suns have over the last month. I also know that LA has the best player in the NBA in Kobe Bryant. And while the Lakers' overall defense has improved this year, their main weakness is still their transition D. Which unfortunately plays right into Phoenix' strength. This is the fact that people seem to be glossing over when evaluating this series. That's not to say LA has no chance though. The Lakers actually do have the personnel to defend the Suns, but if LA can't control the tempo, it won't matter. Phoenix will have a huge advantage if a track meet breaks out because they boast way more scoring options then the Lakers do. At the very least these games will be fun to watch though.

Key match up - Lamar Odom & Shawn Marion. While the Matrix has been garnering some MVP support for his exploits, Lamar has quietly been playing his best ball since returning to LA. These two rangy defenders present interesting problems for each other. Marion is quicker off the dribble and a better jump shooter. Odom is the stronger post player and superior play maker. Steve Nash and Kobe may get all the headlines, but the winner in this battle of second fiddles may decide the series.


Prediction - Kobe could average 40+ points plus for the series, and the Lakers not win a game. The Suns fire power will be too much for LA to overcome. Phoenix in 6.

Memphis v Dallas - The Grizzlies played some stellar ball over the final month of the season and refused to tank. Their reward? A Mavericks team that finished with the third best record overall. As good as Dallas was all year long, they have struggled with injuries down the stretch. It's true that the Mavs are now a defensive oriented half court team, but Memphis plays better D and is just as comfortable, if not more so, playing the slow down style. Dallas has a big advantage rebounding the ball and more scoring options offensively. Even with many of their players dinged up, the Mavs still possess more depth then the Griz do. Both of theses clubs are well coached, have clearly defined role players, and systems that the entire team buys into. So it's going to come down to which squad executes their game plan more consistently.

Key match up - Pau Gasol & Dirk Nowitzki. Nothing like a match up of two "soft" Euro's to get the blood flowing, eh? The truth of the matter is that both of these guys had career years. Where Pau is going to be sorely tested trying to stay with Dirk on the perimeter, Nowitzki should have less issues with Gasol on the low block. Memphis really has no one that matches up well with Dirk (not many do), so if Pau can't slow Nowitzki down at least a little, the Griz are in big trouble.


Prediction - This series is going be a slug fest. Memphis will win their first playoff game in franchise history, but I just don't think they have enough scoring. Dallas in 6.

We here at MMM promise to have the next set of previews out by 8 AM Pacific time Sunday morning at the absolute latest.