Monday Morning Mehta 4/3/06
Edition # 156
April 3, 2006 - "Opening Day"
The first Monday in April should be a National Holiday. Opening Day, the NCAA title game, and today, the return of Derreck Sura. In fact, everyone just get up and leave your work and take the day off - you deserve it (after reading below of course).
Ed Wasser returns next week.
NL Preview
NL East
Atlanta - 93 wins
See MMM from 52 weeks ago: "Anybody that picks anybody besides the Braves to win the division is thinking too hard" Ed Wasser circa March 2005. Does this team have problems? Many.
Problem # 1 - Let's start with their closer, Chris Reitsma. He's a three run homer waiting to happen. But the bullpen is young and deep this year. When Reitsma falters, the Braves have many options, the best might be young hurler Joey Devine who Phillies fans will get to know real quick.
Problem # 2 - Loss of Rafael Furcal.
Problem # 3 - No Leo Mazzone.
Not a problem - Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, a healthy Chipper Jones in the middle of the lineup to go with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of a very deep rotation.
Breakout year? Look for Kyle Davies to step up and be a quality front line starter.
Philadelphia - 86 wins
You know, when I started to look around the NL at possible teams that could make the playoffs, I really didn't intend to have the Phillies as one of them. But if you look at the weaknesses of this team, they really aren't as bad as some of the other teams around the league. The pitching has no front line guy, which will hurt them in the long run, but they have an adequate 1 through 5. In the end, they'll fall one or two games out of the playoffs just like they did last year.
Offense - This offense revolves around the first two guys in the order (some combination of Rollins and Nunez/Rowand). If these guys get on base consistently (.360 OB% and above), this team will be fine on offense. If not, it'll be 10 runs one game and 2 the next just like the last 3 seasons.
Starters - As I said above, no ace, but Lieber and Myers are quality # 2's, and Lidle, Madson and Floyd are probably adequate. Problem is, Madson and Floyd have very little experience, and will probably get roughed up the 2nd time around the league.
Bullpen - The closers spot isn't improved, but I definitely like the depth getting to Gordon. Rhodes is a solid lefty set up guy, and Fultz and Santana should have good years as 7th inning guys. Again, decent, but not playoff material.
Bench - The release of Tomas Perez is a good sign. Sal Fasano is a much better backup than Todd Pratt. And the addition of David Delucci off the bench brings something the Phillies needed, a pinch hitter who can actually effect an opposing manager's decision making.
Coaching - Cholly showed last year, he's not a great in game manager. But the players like playing for him, but that will only last another year. Manuel's definitely on the hot seat with a new GM in town, and a bad start could get him fired.
Management - Pat Gillick gets a year to put his players in place, and next year to show what he's got as far as I'm concerned. He's trying to restock the farm system which is something I like to see. Ed Wade was awful at in season trades, I'm hoping Gillick can make some better moves in July & August.
New York Mets - 85 wins
This is the popular pick to win the NL or at least get the wild card, but there's something missing. Pedro hasn't been the same since his toe injury, and he's still not fully recovered apparently. Tom Glavine is 40 years old, although he pitched great in September last year. And the 3 through 5 is very iffy. Sorry Frank, this column is going to be a tough one for you to read, but the Mets will be golfing in October again.
Florida - 77 wins
Dan Uggla, Reggi Abercrombie, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Olivo, and Eric Reed. That's your offensive guys surrounding Miguel Cabrera. Look for Hermida to win Rookie of the Year, and the rest have their struggles, but show flashes of brilliance. This is a team to watch out for in 2008.
Washington - 72 wins
Sometimes you just know it's going to be a long season in spring training. The Alfonso Soriano disaster should have been a sign to the Nationals. Another possible ROY - Ryan Zimmerman.
NL Central
St. Louis - 95 wins
Add Scott Rolen to an already playoff team and I just can't not have the Cards winning the division again. Add that to the excitement of a new ballpark, and St. Louis should be the # 1 seed in the NL. They'll need to make a trade for an offensive player, possibly an OF'er at the deadline, but their history shows they will.
Houston - 88 wins
Everyone is down on the Astros again. I'm not so sure. Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte are about as good as it gets. I think Roger Clemens will resign with the Astros on May 1st. I think Preston Wilson will help this offense a great deal. The X-factor is Brandon Backe. He needs to step up as a quality starter. The bullpen is solid, and the 865 foot home run Brad Lidge gave up to Albert Pujols in last years NLCS shouldn't have an effect on them.
Chicago - 83 wins
I'm tired of projecting how this team looks with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. But I'll say this, if they have Wood, Zambrano, Prior, Rusch and Maddux for every start after the all star break, they could go on a 55-15 streak for sure and be the favorites to win it all. But it's not realistic to expect those two at 100%.
Milwaukee - 81 wins
If I had any guts I'd pick this team as the wild card. Prince Fielder, Cecil's kid, looks ready to play and will challenge Hermida and Zimmerman for ROY.
Cincy - 73 wins
Pitching is starting to improve, but just not there yet. Aaron Harang is starting to emerge as a potential ace, but still needs some refining. Bronson Arroyo is a nice pickup, but in that ballpark anything can happen.
Pitts - 68 wins
Sometimes you wonder what the fork an organization is thinking. The Pirates signed Sean Casey, a decent but aging first baseman, with Brad Eldred, a home run hitting, Ryan Howard like presence first baseman in the minors. They also signed retread Jeremy Burnitz. A great pitching staff, but a team who will get beat 3-2 and 2-1 often this year.
NL West
LA Dodgers - 85 wins
By far this is the toughest division to call because of how bad it is. Somebody has to win the division here. I'll go with the team with the best pitching. Three decent starters and a good bullpen, to go with an average lineup. I sound pretty convincing don't I? They'll need to make a trade in July for another bat preferably to play the OF, but for now, it'll do.
Barry Bonds - 83 wins
This team is night and day depending on Bonds. With him in the lineup, they're a force to be reckoned with. Without him, they're a sub -.500 team. Jason Schmidt's health is another huge concern. His days of throwing 95 in the 8th inning seem to be a thing of the past, but word is he's healthy again this spring. He's also in his contract year so he'll be motivated. Definitely a contender this year but with health issues I just can't pick em.
D'Backs - 77 wins
Again, if I was being crazy, I'd pick this as the division winner. This team definitely has the makings of a division winner in 2008, with one of the best farm systems in the game. But the pitching just isn't ready yet.
Padres - 76 wins
Jesse's kid Josh Barfield plays 2nd base. I don't like when a team signs Vinny Castilla. Even worse, they signed Shawn Estes. He'll be good because I can be decent at Petco, but not good enough.
Rockies - 70 wins
This team is below average and they play in a bad ballpark to be below average. Lots of 7-5 losses.
PREDICTIONS!!
In the AL, I have the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and A's as the playoff teams. Just to be different, I'll pick the A's to win the AL. I really think the Yankees are primed to make another run at the World Series, but that's like picking Tiger Woods to win the Masters, too easy (which ironically I will do later on).
No Ed Wasser today, he'll be back next week.
In the NL, my playoff teams are the Braves, Cards, Astros, and Dodgers. I think the Cardinals are the team to beat in the NL, and I'll go with them out of the NL. A new stadium, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Philly favorite Scott Rolen will hold the trophy at the end of October. St. Louis Cardinals your 2006 World Series Champions, which goes against all experts picks who say the NL is the weaker sister to the AL. NEVER!!! The DH sucks!!
March Madness
In what was possibly the greatest first two weeks in NCAA tournament history, we get two complete dud games in the Final Four. Everyone roots for teams like Duke, UConn, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Michigan St, etc to lose early in the tournament, but when it comes down to the Final Four and you have a lot of unknown teams, you get dis-interest.
UCLA's Ben Howland is showing how great of a coach he is, and his defensive teams are awesome.
Masters on CBS
I've written WAY too much already, so I'll keep this short. Anyone who picks the Masters and doesn't pick Tiger Woods just isn't paying attention. And of course gun to my ever growing head, yes, Tiger Woods is my pick. But let's look at Wild Card picks, guys who can sneak up and win this thing.
Jose Maria Olazabal - playing great golf so far this year, and always plays well at Augusta.
Chris DiMarco - playing rather crappy so far this year, otherwise he'd be the # 2 pick as he's been so close the last two years.
Luke Donald - it's going to take alot to win a major so quickly from this guy, but there probably isn't a better player younger than 30 (now that Woods is 30)
Rory Sabbatini - Everyone hates Sabbatini because he's slow and a complete hot head yet nobody ever says anything, so it would be funny to see him win - and he's playing very well this year
Lefty - If Tiger's anywhere near the leaderboard, I don't see Phil winning. (Not a wild card pick)
Tom Lehman - This and Donald are my favorite sleeper picks.
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Philadelphia went 11-17 since the last time I wrote about them. I'm not sure you could expect much more then that either, especially when you consider their league wide rankings. Take a look at what I wrote in my first MMM of the regular season (edition #139).
"Keep in mind, there are only 30 teams in the NBA. The Sixers are 30th in points allowed per game (111 ppg) and rebounds per game (34.5 rpg). They are 29th in opponent's field goal percentage (50.5% !!! ) and total rebounding percentage (42.9%). Lastly, Philly is tied for 28th in rebound differential (-11.3 rpg)."
The Sixers are now 25th in points allowed per game (101.7 ppg), total rebounding percentage (48.4%), and rebound differential (-2.6 rpg). They are 23rd in opponent's field goal percentage (46.3%) and 19th in rebounds per game (40.5).
When you break it down, Philly has improved a little in these very important categories from the first
week of the season, but not enough.
Opponent's field goal percentage from 50.5% to 46.3% (league ranking 29th to 23rd).
Points allowed per game from 111 ppg to 101.7 ppg (30th to 25th).
Total rebounding percentage from 42.9% to 48.4% (29th to 25th).
Rebounds per game from 34.5 rpg to 40.5 rpg (30th to 19th).
Rebound differential from -11.3 rpg to -2.6 rpg (28th to 25th).
I think the reasons are partly coaching and partly lack of talent, but when a team can't defend or rebound (much less finish games), you can't expect them to be above .500.
While I'm quoting some early season stuff, it's time to break out this gem from comments section regular Frank Tang. After my Eastern Conference preview (edition #137) he laid this meatball over the plate. "Maybe I'm an optimist, but I have the Sixers winning between 47 and 53 games. That should be good enough for at least home court in the first round."
(This one has nothing to do with my point, but it's too good not to re-print. "John Salmons will have a shot to prove that he's a great player.")
I may have said this before, and I will surely say it again, but Philly has performed EXACTLY as I thought they would. Where I was wrong is that I thought the Eastern Conference would be much improved this year, and it wasn't.
The Sixers (34-38) currently hold down the 8th spot in the East by two losses over Chicago. This week brings Philly: @Cleveland & Chicago (back to back) then Boston & @Chicago (B2B). To say this is a big week for the Sixers is an understatement. They can virtually lock up a post season berth ... or ... make the race for the final playoff spot very interesting. I'll say they lose to the Cavaliers and split with Chicago. The Celtics' game is key to the week in my mind.
(If you were wondering how many games I had the Sixers winning, here's what I had to say in response to ftaok back in October...
"53 games? No shot the Sixers even sniff that. This is the same crew that won 43 games last year, and suddenly they're supposed to be 10 games better because of Cheeks, Hunter, and Nailon? I don't like to predict win total's, but the over/under on Sixers' wins in Vegas is 41.5. I think that's about right. If they win 42 that will be enough to get them into the playoffs. As far as home court goes, you've got to be kidding. The Pacers, Heat, Pistons, and Cavs are easily going to be better then the Sixers. That's not even counting the Nets, who have got to be the favorites to win the Atlantic.")
By the way, MMM himself had Philly going "45-37" this season.
- As we always do here at MMM with one month to go the regular season, it's time to see which teams play defense and can win on road to give us an indication of who the "real" contenders are. Unfortunately, since I was on vacation this report is two weeks late and comes with only 16 days until the end of the season. As of today there are seven teams within one game of .500 on the road.
Detroit 26-11
San Antonio 26-12
Dallas 24-13
Phoenix 21-15
Miami 20-18
New Jersey 18-19
Houston 17-18
Below are the same seven teams listed in order of league ranking in opponent's field goal percentage.
#2 Rockets 42.8%
#4 Spurs 43.2%
#5 Nets 43.8%
#8 Heat 44%
#10 Mavericks 44.3%
#12 Pistons 45.1%
#15 Suns 45.3%
ESPN.com's statistical guru John Hollinger created a stat called "defensive efficiency" which measures the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. According to him this is a better measure of defensive acumen because it takes "pace factor" into account. Pace factor is the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minute game (his formula to come to this number is TMI). So the formula for defensive efficiency goes like this: Start with the number of points a team allows per 48 minutes and divide by its Pace Factor. Then multiply the result by 100. Simple, eh? In a new feature this year, here are the same teams listed in order of defensive efficiency.
#1 San Antonio 96.4
#3 New Jersey 99.8
#4 Detroit 99.9
#8 Houston 100.6
#9 Miami 101.6
#11 Dallas 101.9
#14 Phoenix 102.3
All of those teams are solidly in the post season with the exception of the Rockets, who have been derailed by Tracy McGrady's multiple back injuries. Barring an upset, the Eastern Conference Finals will almost certainly be the Pistons against either the Heat or Nets. The West is far less settled, and looks like it will have some pretty serious second round match ups with the Spurs versus the Mavs or Clippers and the Suns against Denver or Memphis. Detroit and San Antonio are obviously the favorites, but they are not the locks that some analysts would have you believe. I'll have much more on this in the coming weeks.
- I've been watching the Orlando Magic very closely since they acquired Darko Milicic. Granted I missed nine of his games while I was in Holland, but I've seen him in action at least a little in the twelve other games he's appeared in since being traded. I've got to say, I'm impressed. That's not to say he's been great or anything, but trust me, the kid has the tools to be an NBA contributor. Which means he is hardly the bust many have been claiming. Just look at his numbers for proof. In 21 games with Orlando Darko has averaged 7.8 points on 54.3% shooting to go along with 4.6 rebounds and 2.38 blocks in only 21.5 minutes off the bench. Except for the blocks, and maybe the field goal percentage, none of those numbers jump off the page at you, but at the very least they prove he belongs.
I'm not saying he was worthy of the number two pick in 2003 yet, but he is still only 20 years old and basically a rookie when it comes to court time. Milicic has a bit of a nasty streak, can play with his back to the basket, make an open jumper, and has already displayed that innate instinct all great shot blocker possess. Don't get me wrong here, he still has plenty of room for improvement.
The first thing he needs to do is build up his stamina. Much like a young Yao Ming, Darko gets tired after only a few trips running up and down the floor. That could be because he's not used to playing regular minutes though, so he gets a pass on that until next year. The next thing he needs to do is get more aggressive on the glass. 4.6 rebounds a game is not going to cut it when you are 7'0, 250 lbs. It's really more then the numbers though. Too many times I see Darko just standing around when a shot goes up. Now I don't know if that's part of the stamina thing or not, but if he's going to be a productive role player, that has to change. The last thing I noticed is that his focus tends to wane a la a young Vlade Divac. Again, that could be because he's tired, but I don't think so. This is what is most disturbing to me, and the thing that could prevent him from reaching his full potential. As guys like Billy Owens and many others have shown us, talent isn't enough to make you great, you've got to want it.
To put Milicic in perspective right now, I compare him to Milwaukee Bucks' rookie Andrew Bogut (21 years old, and likely first team all rookie). They both are shooting above 52% from the field, have good low post games, solid mid-range J's, some toughness to their demeanor, and neither gets an ounce of respect from the referees. Bogut is the better passer. Darko the better shot blocker. What separates them right now is Andrew's work on the boards. At this point I'm not really sure who will be the better player in five years. I'm already on record (edition #151) saying that I think Bogut "will be a very good player for 10+ years", so that should tell you enough about my feelings on Milicic.
The Magic (29-44) have a very bright future with young guys like Darko, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Hedo Turkoglu, and Trevor Ariza (if they resign him). Those six players give the Magic two bigs, two PG's, and two SF's (one a shooter and one a defender). Orlando will also have massive salary cap room after next season when Grant Hill's contract expires. If co-GM's Dave Twardzik and Otis Smith are smart about spending that money, there could be a new dynasty in the making in Central Florida.
- Amare Stoudemire's "comeback" began while I was away. In his first game back (against Portland mind you) he had 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 19 minutes. The next game he played 17 minutes and had 6 points, 5 rebounds, and a block. I didn't see either of those performances, but I did witness his third game in which he "jumped" center to open the game. The reason jump is in quotes is because when the official threw the ball up, Amare didn't even bother to try and elevate. That's right, he just stood there in the circle. He went on to not score a point (0-6 from the field) and grab 2 rebounds in 14 minutes of action. He has since been shelved "indefinitely".
First things first, I do NOT blame Amare for any of this. The kid is 23 years old, just signed a mega-contract, and wants very badly to help one of the best teams in the league win a ring. Which leads me to the Phoenix "brain trust", if you want to call them that. This group includes owner Robert Sarver, coach and newly minted GM Mike D'Antoni, and Vice President David Griffin. I can only say to them, what the hell were youz thinking? This kid has long career ahead of him and was only one of the most uniquely dominating inside players to come down the pipe in recent history. So why, knowing that micro-fracture surgery is practically a death sentence for NBA players, did the notion of him even playing at all this year cross their minds? I can already hear my colleague Ed Wasser saying something along the lines of "the future is now." Well, the Suns' short sightedness may have ensured that the future is never because now both of Stoudemire's knees ache.
His latest MRI from last Thursday showed inflammation in the hamstrings and calves of both legs, but continued healing and no complications with his surgically repaired left knee. Umm, OK. I guess that's good news, but why is he experiencing "stiffness" in his right knee now? I don't think the answer is that difficult when you think about it. Inflamed muscles in both legs + stiffness in the good knee = he rushed his rehab along so he could he play this year. After only being able to go in three games, I don't think there's any disputing that he wasn't ready to come back. Again, I don't blame Amare. This is a franchise decision, and I have to wonder if this happens the same way if Bryan Colangelo is still in charge.
As I understand it, micro-fracture surgery is the drilling of small holes (microscopic) in and around the knee bone to stimulate cartilage growth. The reason for it is so players don't end up with the dreaded "bone on bone" thing in their knee joint. The only guy to ever come back and resemble his former self after this surgery is Jason Kidd (maybe Zach Randolph too). And as I remember it, Kidd took tons of heat for his rehab schedule and limited playing time upon his return. I've said from the start that Amare should have followed Kidd's schedule to a tee, if not contacted the person in charge of Jason's rehab.
I read a few things saying what a bad sign it was that Amare needed this surgery at such a young age in the first place. As it stands right now, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that Stoudemire's career may be in jeopardy. I'm sure he'll play again, but I'd say it's no better then 50-50 that he'll return to his old form. Which is not good news for someone that relied on their athleticism as much as Amare did. Who would've ever thought tearing your ACL would be preferable to something/anything?
Don't miss my comprehensive breakdown of all the playoff races next week!
*Note: All statistical data does not include Sunday's games.
April 3, 2006 - "Opening Day"
The first Monday in April should be a National Holiday. Opening Day, the NCAA title game, and today, the return of Derreck Sura. In fact, everyone just get up and leave your work and take the day off - you deserve it (after reading below of course).
Ed Wasser returns next week.
NL Preview
NL East
Atlanta - 93 wins
See MMM from 52 weeks ago: "Anybody that picks anybody besides the Braves to win the division is thinking too hard" Ed Wasser circa March 2005. Does this team have problems? Many.
Problem # 1 - Let's start with their closer, Chris Reitsma. He's a three run homer waiting to happen. But the bullpen is young and deep this year. When Reitsma falters, the Braves have many options, the best might be young hurler Joey Devine who Phillies fans will get to know real quick.
Problem # 2 - Loss of Rafael Furcal.
Problem # 3 - No Leo Mazzone.
Not a problem - Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, a healthy Chipper Jones in the middle of the lineup to go with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of a very deep rotation.
Breakout year? Look for Kyle Davies to step up and be a quality front line starter.
Philadelphia - 86 wins
You know, when I started to look around the NL at possible teams that could make the playoffs, I really didn't intend to have the Phillies as one of them. But if you look at the weaknesses of this team, they really aren't as bad as some of the other teams around the league. The pitching has no front line guy, which will hurt them in the long run, but they have an adequate 1 through 5. In the end, they'll fall one or two games out of the playoffs just like they did last year.
Offense - This offense revolves around the first two guys in the order (some combination of Rollins and Nunez/Rowand). If these guys get on base consistently (.360 OB% and above), this team will be fine on offense. If not, it'll be 10 runs one game and 2 the next just like the last 3 seasons.
Starters - As I said above, no ace, but Lieber and Myers are quality # 2's, and Lidle, Madson and Floyd are probably adequate. Problem is, Madson and Floyd have very little experience, and will probably get roughed up the 2nd time around the league.
Bullpen - The closers spot isn't improved, but I definitely like the depth getting to Gordon. Rhodes is a solid lefty set up guy, and Fultz and Santana should have good years as 7th inning guys. Again, decent, but not playoff material.
Bench - The release of Tomas Perez is a good sign. Sal Fasano is a much better backup than Todd Pratt. And the addition of David Delucci off the bench brings something the Phillies needed, a pinch hitter who can actually effect an opposing manager's decision making.
Coaching - Cholly showed last year, he's not a great in game manager. But the players like playing for him, but that will only last another year. Manuel's definitely on the hot seat with a new GM in town, and a bad start could get him fired.
Management - Pat Gillick gets a year to put his players in place, and next year to show what he's got as far as I'm concerned. He's trying to restock the farm system which is something I like to see. Ed Wade was awful at in season trades, I'm hoping Gillick can make some better moves in July & August.
New York Mets - 85 wins
This is the popular pick to win the NL or at least get the wild card, but there's something missing. Pedro hasn't been the same since his toe injury, and he's still not fully recovered apparently. Tom Glavine is 40 years old, although he pitched great in September last year. And the 3 through 5 is very iffy. Sorry Frank, this column is going to be a tough one for you to read, but the Mets will be golfing in October again.
Florida - 77 wins
Dan Uggla, Reggi Abercrombie, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Olivo, and Eric Reed. That's your offensive guys surrounding Miguel Cabrera. Look for Hermida to win Rookie of the Year, and the rest have their struggles, but show flashes of brilliance. This is a team to watch out for in 2008.
Washington - 72 wins
Sometimes you just know it's going to be a long season in spring training. The Alfonso Soriano disaster should have been a sign to the Nationals. Another possible ROY - Ryan Zimmerman.
NL Central
St. Louis - 95 wins
Add Scott Rolen to an already playoff team and I just can't not have the Cards winning the division again. Add that to the excitement of a new ballpark, and St. Louis should be the # 1 seed in the NL. They'll need to make a trade for an offensive player, possibly an OF'er at the deadline, but their history shows they will.
Houston - 88 wins
Everyone is down on the Astros again. I'm not so sure. Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte are about as good as it gets. I think Roger Clemens will resign with the Astros on May 1st. I think Preston Wilson will help this offense a great deal. The X-factor is Brandon Backe. He needs to step up as a quality starter. The bullpen is solid, and the 865 foot home run Brad Lidge gave up to Albert Pujols in last years NLCS shouldn't have an effect on them.
Chicago - 83 wins
I'm tired of projecting how this team looks with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. But I'll say this, if they have Wood, Zambrano, Prior, Rusch and Maddux for every start after the all star break, they could go on a 55-15 streak for sure and be the favorites to win it all. But it's not realistic to expect those two at 100%.
Milwaukee - 81 wins
If I had any guts I'd pick this team as the wild card. Prince Fielder, Cecil's kid, looks ready to play and will challenge Hermida and Zimmerman for ROY.
Cincy - 73 wins
Pitching is starting to improve, but just not there yet. Aaron Harang is starting to emerge as a potential ace, but still needs some refining. Bronson Arroyo is a nice pickup, but in that ballpark anything can happen.
Pitts - 68 wins
Sometimes you wonder what the fork an organization is thinking. The Pirates signed Sean Casey, a decent but aging first baseman, with Brad Eldred, a home run hitting, Ryan Howard like presence first baseman in the minors. They also signed retread Jeremy Burnitz. A great pitching staff, but a team who will get beat 3-2 and 2-1 often this year.
NL West
LA Dodgers - 85 wins
By far this is the toughest division to call because of how bad it is. Somebody has to win the division here. I'll go with the team with the best pitching. Three decent starters and a good bullpen, to go with an average lineup. I sound pretty convincing don't I? They'll need to make a trade in July for another bat preferably to play the OF, but for now, it'll do.
Barry Bonds - 83 wins
This team is night and day depending on Bonds. With him in the lineup, they're a force to be reckoned with. Without him, they're a sub -.500 team. Jason Schmidt's health is another huge concern. His days of throwing 95 in the 8th inning seem to be a thing of the past, but word is he's healthy again this spring. He's also in his contract year so he'll be motivated. Definitely a contender this year but with health issues I just can't pick em.
D'Backs - 77 wins
Again, if I was being crazy, I'd pick this as the division winner. This team definitely has the makings of a division winner in 2008, with one of the best farm systems in the game. But the pitching just isn't ready yet.
Padres - 76 wins
Jesse's kid Josh Barfield plays 2nd base. I don't like when a team signs Vinny Castilla. Even worse, they signed Shawn Estes. He'll be good because I can be decent at Petco, but not good enough.
Rockies - 70 wins
This team is below average and they play in a bad ballpark to be below average. Lots of 7-5 losses.
PREDICTIONS!!
In the AL, I have the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and A's as the playoff teams. Just to be different, I'll pick the A's to win the AL. I really think the Yankees are primed to make another run at the World Series, but that's like picking Tiger Woods to win the Masters, too easy (which ironically I will do later on).
No Ed Wasser today, he'll be back next week.
In the NL, my playoff teams are the Braves, Cards, Astros, and Dodgers. I think the Cardinals are the team to beat in the NL, and I'll go with them out of the NL. A new stadium, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Philly favorite Scott Rolen will hold the trophy at the end of October. St. Louis Cardinals your 2006 World Series Champions, which goes against all experts picks who say the NL is the weaker sister to the AL. NEVER!!! The DH sucks!!
March Madness
In what was possibly the greatest first two weeks in NCAA tournament history, we get two complete dud games in the Final Four. Everyone roots for teams like Duke, UConn, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Michigan St, etc to lose early in the tournament, but when it comes down to the Final Four and you have a lot of unknown teams, you get dis-interest.
UCLA's Ben Howland is showing how great of a coach he is, and his defensive teams are awesome.
Masters on CBS
I've written WAY too much already, so I'll keep this short. Anyone who picks the Masters and doesn't pick Tiger Woods just isn't paying attention. And of course gun to my ever growing head, yes, Tiger Woods is my pick. But let's look at Wild Card picks, guys who can sneak up and win this thing.
Jose Maria Olazabal - playing great golf so far this year, and always plays well at Augusta.
Chris DiMarco - playing rather crappy so far this year, otherwise he'd be the # 2 pick as he's been so close the last two years.
Luke Donald - it's going to take alot to win a major so quickly from this guy, but there probably isn't a better player younger than 30 (now that Woods is 30)
Rory Sabbatini - Everyone hates Sabbatini because he's slow and a complete hot head yet nobody ever says anything, so it would be funny to see him win - and he's playing very well this year
Lefty - If Tiger's anywhere near the leaderboard, I don't see Phil winning. (Not a wild card pick)
Tom Lehman - This and Donald are my favorite sleeper picks.
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Philadelphia went 11-17 since the last time I wrote about them. I'm not sure you could expect much more then that either, especially when you consider their league wide rankings. Take a look at what I wrote in my first MMM of the regular season (edition #139).
"Keep in mind, there are only 30 teams in the NBA. The Sixers are 30th in points allowed per game (111 ppg) and rebounds per game (34.5 rpg). They are 29th in opponent's field goal percentage (50.5% !!! ) and total rebounding percentage (42.9%). Lastly, Philly is tied for 28th in rebound differential (-11.3 rpg)."
The Sixers are now 25th in points allowed per game (101.7 ppg), total rebounding percentage (48.4%), and rebound differential (-2.6 rpg). They are 23rd in opponent's field goal percentage (46.3%) and 19th in rebounds per game (40.5).
When you break it down, Philly has improved a little in these very important categories from the first
week of the season, but not enough.
Opponent's field goal percentage from 50.5% to 46.3% (league ranking 29th to 23rd).
Points allowed per game from 111 ppg to 101.7 ppg (30th to 25th).
Total rebounding percentage from 42.9% to 48.4% (29th to 25th).
Rebounds per game from 34.5 rpg to 40.5 rpg (30th to 19th).
Rebound differential from -11.3 rpg to -2.6 rpg (28th to 25th).
I think the reasons are partly coaching and partly lack of talent, but when a team can't defend or rebound (much less finish games), you can't expect them to be above .500.
While I'm quoting some early season stuff, it's time to break out this gem from comments section regular Frank Tang. After my Eastern Conference preview (edition #137) he laid this meatball over the plate. "Maybe I'm an optimist, but I have the Sixers winning between 47 and 53 games. That should be good enough for at least home court in the first round."
(This one has nothing to do with my point, but it's too good not to re-print. "John Salmons will have a shot to prove that he's a great player.")
I may have said this before, and I will surely say it again, but Philly has performed EXACTLY as I thought they would. Where I was wrong is that I thought the Eastern Conference would be much improved this year, and it wasn't.
The Sixers (34-38) currently hold down the 8th spot in the East by two losses over Chicago. This week brings Philly: @Cleveland & Chicago (back to back) then Boston & @Chicago (B2B). To say this is a big week for the Sixers is an understatement. They can virtually lock up a post season berth ... or ... make the race for the final playoff spot very interesting. I'll say they lose to the Cavaliers and split with Chicago. The Celtics' game is key to the week in my mind.
(If you were wondering how many games I had the Sixers winning, here's what I had to say in response to ftaok back in October...
"53 games? No shot the Sixers even sniff that. This is the same crew that won 43 games last year, and suddenly they're supposed to be 10 games better because of Cheeks, Hunter, and Nailon? I don't like to predict win total's, but the over/under on Sixers' wins in Vegas is 41.5. I think that's about right. If they win 42 that will be enough to get them into the playoffs. As far as home court goes, you've got to be kidding. The Pacers, Heat, Pistons, and Cavs are easily going to be better then the Sixers. That's not even counting the Nets, who have got to be the favorites to win the Atlantic.")
By the way, MMM himself had Philly going "45-37" this season.
- As we always do here at MMM with one month to go the regular season, it's time to see which teams play defense and can win on road to give us an indication of who the "real" contenders are. Unfortunately, since I was on vacation this report is two weeks late and comes with only 16 days until the end of the season. As of today there are seven teams within one game of .500 on the road.
Detroit 26-11
San Antonio 26-12
Dallas 24-13
Phoenix 21-15
Miami 20-18
New Jersey 18-19
Houston 17-18
Below are the same seven teams listed in order of league ranking in opponent's field goal percentage.
#2 Rockets 42.8%
#4 Spurs 43.2%
#5 Nets 43.8%
#8 Heat 44%
#10 Mavericks 44.3%
#12 Pistons 45.1%
#15 Suns 45.3%
ESPN.com's statistical guru John Hollinger created a stat called "defensive efficiency" which measures the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. According to him this is a better measure of defensive acumen because it takes "pace factor" into account. Pace factor is the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minute game (his formula to come to this number is TMI). So the formula for defensive efficiency goes like this: Start with the number of points a team allows per 48 minutes and divide by its Pace Factor. Then multiply the result by 100. Simple, eh? In a new feature this year, here are the same teams listed in order of defensive efficiency.
#1 San Antonio 96.4
#3 New Jersey 99.8
#4 Detroit 99.9
#8 Houston 100.6
#9 Miami 101.6
#11 Dallas 101.9
#14 Phoenix 102.3
All of those teams are solidly in the post season with the exception of the Rockets, who have been derailed by Tracy McGrady's multiple back injuries. Barring an upset, the Eastern Conference Finals will almost certainly be the Pistons against either the Heat or Nets. The West is far less settled, and looks like it will have some pretty serious second round match ups with the Spurs versus the Mavs or Clippers and the Suns against Denver or Memphis. Detroit and San Antonio are obviously the favorites, but they are not the locks that some analysts would have you believe. I'll have much more on this in the coming weeks.
- I've been watching the Orlando Magic very closely since they acquired Darko Milicic. Granted I missed nine of his games while I was in Holland, but I've seen him in action at least a little in the twelve other games he's appeared in since being traded. I've got to say, I'm impressed. That's not to say he's been great or anything, but trust me, the kid has the tools to be an NBA contributor. Which means he is hardly the bust many have been claiming. Just look at his numbers for proof. In 21 games with Orlando Darko has averaged 7.8 points on 54.3% shooting to go along with 4.6 rebounds and 2.38 blocks in only 21.5 minutes off the bench. Except for the blocks, and maybe the field goal percentage, none of those numbers jump off the page at you, but at the very least they prove he belongs.
I'm not saying he was worthy of the number two pick in 2003 yet, but he is still only 20 years old and basically a rookie when it comes to court time. Milicic has a bit of a nasty streak, can play with his back to the basket, make an open jumper, and has already displayed that innate instinct all great shot blocker possess. Don't get me wrong here, he still has plenty of room for improvement.
The first thing he needs to do is build up his stamina. Much like a young Yao Ming, Darko gets tired after only a few trips running up and down the floor. That could be because he's not used to playing regular minutes though, so he gets a pass on that until next year. The next thing he needs to do is get more aggressive on the glass. 4.6 rebounds a game is not going to cut it when you are 7'0, 250 lbs. It's really more then the numbers though. Too many times I see Darko just standing around when a shot goes up. Now I don't know if that's part of the stamina thing or not, but if he's going to be a productive role player, that has to change. The last thing I noticed is that his focus tends to wane a la a young Vlade Divac. Again, that could be because he's tired, but I don't think so. This is what is most disturbing to me, and the thing that could prevent him from reaching his full potential. As guys like Billy Owens and many others have shown us, talent isn't enough to make you great, you've got to want it.
To put Milicic in perspective right now, I compare him to Milwaukee Bucks' rookie Andrew Bogut (21 years old, and likely first team all rookie). They both are shooting above 52% from the field, have good low post games, solid mid-range J's, some toughness to their demeanor, and neither gets an ounce of respect from the referees. Bogut is the better passer. Darko the better shot blocker. What separates them right now is Andrew's work on the boards. At this point I'm not really sure who will be the better player in five years. I'm already on record (edition #151) saying that I think Bogut "will be a very good player for 10+ years", so that should tell you enough about my feelings on Milicic.
The Magic (29-44) have a very bright future with young guys like Darko, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Hedo Turkoglu, and Trevor Ariza (if they resign him). Those six players give the Magic two bigs, two PG's, and two SF's (one a shooter and one a defender). Orlando will also have massive salary cap room after next season when Grant Hill's contract expires. If co-GM's Dave Twardzik and Otis Smith are smart about spending that money, there could be a new dynasty in the making in Central Florida.
- Amare Stoudemire's "comeback" began while I was away. In his first game back (against Portland mind you) he had 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 19 minutes. The next game he played 17 minutes and had 6 points, 5 rebounds, and a block. I didn't see either of those performances, but I did witness his third game in which he "jumped" center to open the game. The reason jump is in quotes is because when the official threw the ball up, Amare didn't even bother to try and elevate. That's right, he just stood there in the circle. He went on to not score a point (0-6 from the field) and grab 2 rebounds in 14 minutes of action. He has since been shelved "indefinitely".
First things first, I do NOT blame Amare for any of this. The kid is 23 years old, just signed a mega-contract, and wants very badly to help one of the best teams in the league win a ring. Which leads me to the Phoenix "brain trust", if you want to call them that. This group includes owner Robert Sarver, coach and newly minted GM Mike D'Antoni, and Vice President David Griffin. I can only say to them, what the hell were youz thinking? This kid has long career ahead of him and was only one of the most uniquely dominating inside players to come down the pipe in recent history. So why, knowing that micro-fracture surgery is practically a death sentence for NBA players, did the notion of him even playing at all this year cross their minds? I can already hear my colleague Ed Wasser saying something along the lines of "the future is now." Well, the Suns' short sightedness may have ensured that the future is never because now both of Stoudemire's knees ache.
His latest MRI from last Thursday showed inflammation in the hamstrings and calves of both legs, but continued healing and no complications with his surgically repaired left knee. Umm, OK. I guess that's good news, but why is he experiencing "stiffness" in his right knee now? I don't think the answer is that difficult when you think about it. Inflamed muscles in both legs + stiffness in the good knee = he rushed his rehab along so he could he play this year. After only being able to go in three games, I don't think there's any disputing that he wasn't ready to come back. Again, I don't blame Amare. This is a franchise decision, and I have to wonder if this happens the same way if Bryan Colangelo is still in charge.
As I understand it, micro-fracture surgery is the drilling of small holes (microscopic) in and around the knee bone to stimulate cartilage growth. The reason for it is so players don't end up with the dreaded "bone on bone" thing in their knee joint. The only guy to ever come back and resemble his former self after this surgery is Jason Kidd (maybe Zach Randolph too). And as I remember it, Kidd took tons of heat for his rehab schedule and limited playing time upon his return. I've said from the start that Amare should have followed Kidd's schedule to a tee, if not contacted the person in charge of Jason's rehab.
I read a few things saying what a bad sign it was that Amare needed this surgery at such a young age in the first place. As it stands right now, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that Stoudemire's career may be in jeopardy. I'm sure he'll play again, but I'd say it's no better then 50-50 that he'll return to his old form. Which is not good news for someone that relied on their athleticism as much as Amare did. Who would've ever thought tearing your ACL would be preferable to something/anything?
Don't miss my comprehensive breakdown of all the playoff races next week!
*Note: All statistical data does not include Sunday's games.
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:40 AM
4 Comments:
Frank man, Derreck bitched slapped you! Good work Derreck put them doubters in place!!
Like I've said before, I respect a man that's willing to go down with the ship. Kudos, FT.
- D$
Are you trying to bait me? Willie Green is "BK overrated" (new term).
Anyway, you did say that thing about Salmons (edition #137, first paragraph of your 2nd comment).
- D$
FT, I'm a big Jeff fan, but it's a loooong season in NASCAR.
Being in the top ten is good enough, then you've got to finish EVRY race in the playoffs to have any shot.
Lots and lots can happen between now and the playoffs though.
Jeff started off on fire last season too, then didn't finish a bunch of races, and ended up missing the playoffs (although he did get the million dollar bonus for finishing 11th).
- D$
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