Monday Morning Mehta 5/23/05
Edition # 120
May 23, 2005
MLB/Phils/Baltimore weekend
Phils come off of a week where they go an impressive 4-2 vs. division leaders Baltimore and St. Louis. It means nothing if they don't come up big this week vs. Atlanta and Florida, teams they have struggled mightily against the last 3 seasons.
I would get yelled at by Mike from Detroit if I didn't also mention the amazing victory by Afleet Alex who owned by Philadelphians. In one of the most dramatic races this writer has seen in a long time, Alex nearly fell at the final turn after nudging Scrappy T, then found some adrenaline (or an electric zapper from the jockey) and blew by the field to win going away. (Note: There will be no Ed Wasser column this week as he was in Baltimore reporting for next weeks edition)
All in a all, a very nice Philadelphia weekend in Baltimore.
Now back to reality:
- Phillies must win at least 4 out of 6 this weekend if not to get some fan interest back in this team, but to make themselves believe.
- Amazing stat to follow. Pat Burrell has scored 15 runs this year. He's got 9 homers. So he's only scored 6 times all year when he hasn't drove himself home. If that doesn't tell you the ineptitude of the Phillies 6-8 hitters this year, nothing will.
- Bobby Abreu has cooled off somewhat after his torrid 12 games or so. His .452 OB% is in the top 3 in the NL. He likely won't have to be the last one voted in this years All-Star team.
- Brett Myers and Corey Lidle have been downright excellent for the Phillies so far. Myers is currently 2nd in the NL in strikeouts and has been battling Pedro Martinez for the lead. Lidle has been an "innings eater" as advertised. Let's see how they do in this crucial week before we start going too nuts.
Mailbag: (Re: Chris Cook from Philly's Mailbag)From The Spark of Warminster - Anyone who laments the trade of Marlon Byrd, a below average hitter and fielder. for anyone we got is a stone cold idiot. It just shows how much the Phillies think of Byrd that they traded him because their history is to hold onto players way too long. Byrd blows!!!!!!!!!!
MMM response - Spark just bit$hed slapped Cook right across the face. Break it up fellas, you two are the President and VP of the Jimmy Rollins fan club, you're going to need to stick together...
Around the League
Interleague play over the weekend juiced up baseball a bit. The Yankees/Mets series was interesting as it usually is. I think the Yankees have to be worried about Randy Johnson. Where is the dominant pitcher from last year? He was only hitting 92-93 on the radar gun this Saturday. The Mets on the other hand are probably just a .500 team. Their bullpen is as atrocious as it gets. You can't tell me Roberto Hernandez is going to be your setup man.
Speaking of bad bullpens, Dusty Baker pulled Carlos Zambrano after 108 pitches in 7 innings of 1 hit ball, and the Cubs pen promptly gave up 5 runs to lose the game. Yesterday, Mark Prior threw 126 pitches (a guy whose had arm trouble) in a complete game. I expect Baker to pitch his starters until their arms fall off this year, which honestly, I don't mind. [In a crotchety old man voice] I remember when I was growing up 130-140 pitches was commonplace.
Side note on Zambrano: [From today's Chicago Tribune] Carlos Zambrano has been ordered to stay off his home computer due to his elbow problems.He spends about four hours per day emailing with family members and the Cubs now think that may be the reason for his tennis elbow. The previous analysis by Dusty Baker was that the problem was a result of swinging a bat. Dusty Baker has known about the computer theory for several days, but was reluctant to share it with the media. ''People would think we're just coming up with an excuse or an alibi for [high] pitch counts,'' Baker said.
Wow, spending all day just emailing people, what a loser!
There really isn't any one team playing red hot baseball right now. The Yankees are 2-2 in their last 4 after winning 10 straight. The Padres were that team until they lost two games to the Mariners. If you get a chance to watch Jake Peavy, do it. The guy is awesome. He won the ERA title last year and there's no reason he won't be right there this year.
A team that's struggling mightily is the Atlanta Braves. John Thompson is going to be out 2-3 months with a finger injury. Mike Hampton's status is iffy. Rafael Furcal and Brian Giles are struggling at the top of the order. And Dan Kolb, their closer, stinks. Kolb has been removed from the spot for either Chris Reitsma or Adam Bernero. Reitsma has also struggled.
NBA - Derreck Sura
- It's only fitting that we have the two teams with the best regular season records from the East and West facing off in their respective Conference Finals. I'm a very tidy 12-0 on my playoff predictions so far, and was a total of 2 games off in the last round. It must also be noted that I correctly picked three of the final four teams (Damn Timberwolves!) back in October in my pre-season pieces. As usual, these previews were written before play began.
EAST
Detroit v Miami - The Heat have been averaging 105.3 points a game as they have steam rolled though these playoffs so far, but I'd be surprised if they broke the 100 point barrier more then once in this series. The cake walk portion of Miami's post season is now over, so a healthy Shaquille O'Neal is paramount to the Heat's success. Shaq practiced for the first time in 11 days on Saturday, and while I do expect him to suit up for every game in this series, something tells me that Miami has been hiding something about his injury. I have a hard time believing that a bruised right thigh, no matter how severe, isn't healed after 5 weeks. Regardless of O'Neal's condition, look for the Pistons to bring multiple defenders at the Big Fella. The seldom used Elden Campbell is on Detroit's roster for this sole purpose. Dwyane Wade has been on a serious tear in the playoffs averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 assists, and 6.6 rebounds on 51.9% shooting. The Pistons have plenty of people to throw at Wade, but none better then Tayshaun Prince. I'm not sure Prince has the quickness to stay in front of Wade, but Tay's length is certainly going to bother Dwyane. Detroit must make Wade work at both ends of the floor, not only so he wears down by the 4th quarter, but also to put fouls on him. The Pistons have had success with this, as D Wade fouled out of two of their three games this year. That's why I anticipate Eddie Jones to be the one chasing Richard Hamilton around the majority of the time. The one match up problem for the Heat is Rasheed Wallace. I don't see anybody on Miami's roster that can deal with Sheed's combination of inside and outside game. Detroit won the season series 2-1, with the Heat winning the only game Wade didn't foul out of. In these three games the victorious team averaged 82.3 points, while the losing side managed just 75.7 points. You can expect to see more low scoring tightly contested games throughout this series. The Pistons must come to play with intensity every night, and Miami has to hope that Shaq is able to consistently play at a high level.
Key match up - Ben Wallace & Shaquille O'Neal. The defensive player of the year versus the runner up for MVP should be entertaining to watch. I know that no one player can stop Shaq, but Big Ben has the ability to make O'Neal work harder then he wants to. Especially if Shaq is not 100% healthy. Wallace needs to bust his ass running up the court in transition to beat O'Neal to the paint and hopefully get some get some easy hoops for Detroit. Ben must also be very active crashing the glass and try to take advantage of Shaq's limited mobility. If Wallace can draw O'Neal away from the basket by making a few 15 foot jumpers, that would be icing on the cake. I'm sure Shaq remembers what the Pistons did to him in last year's NBA Finals, so I fully expect the Diesel to play with a chip on his shoulder, and try to re-establish his dominance against Detroit. If his bruised right thigh will allow him to, O'Neal should have no problem making his task easier by getting Ben into foul trouble.
Prediction - The Pistons aren't going to break their laziness habit now, so the Heat will get one game that way. Shaq and Wade will probably both get big numbers in the same game, so there's another for Miami. Other then that, Detroit is just too tough defensively, and has the edge in big game experience as a unit. Pistons in 6.
WEST
San Antonio v Phoenix - As is always the case this time of year, injuries will play a big role in the outcome of this series. We'll see how healthy Tim Duncan's left ankle is right away because his mobility is going to be tested immediately by Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. Joe Johnson received medical clearance on Friday that the surgically repaired area around his left eye has healed enough for him to play. I feel like the perimeter players in this series are pretty evenly matched. Look for Bruce Bowen to switch his defensive assignment between Johnson and Quentin Richardson depending on which one is playing better at the time. The interior match ups are going to dictate this series. I anticipate Duncan starting off on Marion with Nazr Mohammed on Stoudemire, and vice versa. After Amare inevitably gets Nazr into foul trouble, look for good ole Robert Horry to come in and guard the Matrix with Timmy switching over to Stoudemire. I expect to see these four players on the court and going against each other for the vast majority of the minutes in this series. While Duncan could have trouble with Marion's quickness at the start of each half, Horry still has enough athleticism left at 34 to do an above average job shadowing the Matrix. Obviously Tim and Amare is the main event of the series, and whoever has the upper hand in that battle, will give their team a decided advantage. The Suns have a tendency to allow their opponents to get good looks at the basket because Phoenix is so confident in their own ability to score. This is going to have to change against the Spurs, because SA plays very disciplined at the offensive end, and will pick the Suns apart if Phoenix doesn't ratchet up their defensive intensity a notch or two. The Spurs won the season series 2-1, winning in SA 115-94 on 12/28 ,and 128-123 on 1/21 in the Valley of the Sun. The Suns lone win came at home on 3/9, 107-101. Judging by those final scores, I think it's safe to say the Spurs are comfortable playing at Phoenix' pace. That's why I think the team that plays better defense will most likely prevail.
Key match up - Tony Parker & Steve Nash. Nash is playing out of his mind right now, and just shut everyone up who was skeptical about him winning the MVP this year. Steve averaged 30.3 points, 12 assists, and 6.5 rebounds in the last series while shooting 55% from the field, 41.9% from three, and 96.2% from the free throw line. The little Canadian has become the Suns' on court leader, and go to player in the clutch, in just his first season with the club. Parker has traditionally given Nash fits with his quickness off the dribble. When TP is able to get by Steve, and into the teeth of the Phoenix defense, good things usually happen for SA. Parker will have to play much more consistently then he ever has in the playoffs to make Nash work on defense every single game. If TP can get Steve into foul trouble in 2 or more games, that could be the difference in the series.
Prediction - I wouldn't be surprised if this series went either way, and expect it to be much more competitive then some might think. Even though the Suns have home court advantage, and their lack of depth won't hurt them (barring injuries), I see the Spurs playoff experience being the deciding factor. SA in 6.
Mailbag?:
saurinmeht@aol.com
dsura@peacehealth.org
ewwasser@hotmail.com
May 23, 2005
MLB/Phils/Baltimore weekend
Phils come off of a week where they go an impressive 4-2 vs. division leaders Baltimore and St. Louis. It means nothing if they don't come up big this week vs. Atlanta and Florida, teams they have struggled mightily against the last 3 seasons.
I would get yelled at by Mike from Detroit if I didn't also mention the amazing victory by Afleet Alex who owned by Philadelphians. In one of the most dramatic races this writer has seen in a long time, Alex nearly fell at the final turn after nudging Scrappy T, then found some adrenaline (or an electric zapper from the jockey) and blew by the field to win going away. (Note: There will be no Ed Wasser column this week as he was in Baltimore reporting for next weeks edition)
All in a all, a very nice Philadelphia weekend in Baltimore.
Now back to reality:
- Phillies must win at least 4 out of 6 this weekend if not to get some fan interest back in this team, but to make themselves believe.
- Amazing stat to follow. Pat Burrell has scored 15 runs this year. He's got 9 homers. So he's only scored 6 times all year when he hasn't drove himself home. If that doesn't tell you the ineptitude of the Phillies 6-8 hitters this year, nothing will.
- Bobby Abreu has cooled off somewhat after his torrid 12 games or so. His .452 OB% is in the top 3 in the NL. He likely won't have to be the last one voted in this years All-Star team.
- Brett Myers and Corey Lidle have been downright excellent for the Phillies so far. Myers is currently 2nd in the NL in strikeouts and has been battling Pedro Martinez for the lead. Lidle has been an "innings eater" as advertised. Let's see how they do in this crucial week before we start going too nuts.
Mailbag: (Re: Chris Cook from Philly's Mailbag)From The Spark of Warminster - Anyone who laments the trade of Marlon Byrd, a below average hitter and fielder. for anyone we got is a stone cold idiot. It just shows how much the Phillies think of Byrd that they traded him because their history is to hold onto players way too long. Byrd blows!!!!!!!!!!
MMM response - Spark just bit$hed slapped Cook right across the face. Break it up fellas, you two are the President and VP of the Jimmy Rollins fan club, you're going to need to stick together...
Around the League
Interleague play over the weekend juiced up baseball a bit. The Yankees/Mets series was interesting as it usually is. I think the Yankees have to be worried about Randy Johnson. Where is the dominant pitcher from last year? He was only hitting 92-93 on the radar gun this Saturday. The Mets on the other hand are probably just a .500 team. Their bullpen is as atrocious as it gets. You can't tell me Roberto Hernandez is going to be your setup man.
Speaking of bad bullpens, Dusty Baker pulled Carlos Zambrano after 108 pitches in 7 innings of 1 hit ball, and the Cubs pen promptly gave up 5 runs to lose the game. Yesterday, Mark Prior threw 126 pitches (a guy whose had arm trouble) in a complete game. I expect Baker to pitch his starters until their arms fall off this year, which honestly, I don't mind. [In a crotchety old man voice] I remember when I was growing up 130-140 pitches was commonplace.
Side note on Zambrano: [From today's Chicago Tribune] Carlos Zambrano has been ordered to stay off his home computer due to his elbow problems.He spends about four hours per day emailing with family members and the Cubs now think that may be the reason for his tennis elbow. The previous analysis by Dusty Baker was that the problem was a result of swinging a bat. Dusty Baker has known about the computer theory for several days, but was reluctant to share it with the media. ''People would think we're just coming up with an excuse or an alibi for [high] pitch counts,'' Baker said.
Wow, spending all day just emailing people, what a loser!
There really isn't any one team playing red hot baseball right now. The Yankees are 2-2 in their last 4 after winning 10 straight. The Padres were that team until they lost two games to the Mariners. If you get a chance to watch Jake Peavy, do it. The guy is awesome. He won the ERA title last year and there's no reason he won't be right there this year.
A team that's struggling mightily is the Atlanta Braves. John Thompson is going to be out 2-3 months with a finger injury. Mike Hampton's status is iffy. Rafael Furcal and Brian Giles are struggling at the top of the order. And Dan Kolb, their closer, stinks. Kolb has been removed from the spot for either Chris Reitsma or Adam Bernero. Reitsma has also struggled.
NBA - Derreck Sura
- It's only fitting that we have the two teams with the best regular season records from the East and West facing off in their respective Conference Finals. I'm a very tidy 12-0 on my playoff predictions so far, and was a total of 2 games off in the last round. It must also be noted that I correctly picked three of the final four teams (Damn Timberwolves!) back in October in my pre-season pieces. As usual, these previews were written before play began.
EAST
Detroit v Miami - The Heat have been averaging 105.3 points a game as they have steam rolled though these playoffs so far, but I'd be surprised if they broke the 100 point barrier more then once in this series. The cake walk portion of Miami's post season is now over, so a healthy Shaquille O'Neal is paramount to the Heat's success. Shaq practiced for the first time in 11 days on Saturday, and while I do expect him to suit up for every game in this series, something tells me that Miami has been hiding something about his injury. I have a hard time believing that a bruised right thigh, no matter how severe, isn't healed after 5 weeks. Regardless of O'Neal's condition, look for the Pistons to bring multiple defenders at the Big Fella. The seldom used Elden Campbell is on Detroit's roster for this sole purpose. Dwyane Wade has been on a serious tear in the playoffs averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 assists, and 6.6 rebounds on 51.9% shooting. The Pistons have plenty of people to throw at Wade, but none better then Tayshaun Prince. I'm not sure Prince has the quickness to stay in front of Wade, but Tay's length is certainly going to bother Dwyane. Detroit must make Wade work at both ends of the floor, not only so he wears down by the 4th quarter, but also to put fouls on him. The Pistons have had success with this, as D Wade fouled out of two of their three games this year. That's why I anticipate Eddie Jones to be the one chasing Richard Hamilton around the majority of the time. The one match up problem for the Heat is Rasheed Wallace. I don't see anybody on Miami's roster that can deal with Sheed's combination of inside and outside game. Detroit won the season series 2-1, with the Heat winning the only game Wade didn't foul out of. In these three games the victorious team averaged 82.3 points, while the losing side managed just 75.7 points. You can expect to see more low scoring tightly contested games throughout this series. The Pistons must come to play with intensity every night, and Miami has to hope that Shaq is able to consistently play at a high level.
Key match up - Ben Wallace & Shaquille O'Neal. The defensive player of the year versus the runner up for MVP should be entertaining to watch. I know that no one player can stop Shaq, but Big Ben has the ability to make O'Neal work harder then he wants to. Especially if Shaq is not 100% healthy. Wallace needs to bust his ass running up the court in transition to beat O'Neal to the paint and hopefully get some get some easy hoops for Detroit. Ben must also be very active crashing the glass and try to take advantage of Shaq's limited mobility. If Wallace can draw O'Neal away from the basket by making a few 15 foot jumpers, that would be icing on the cake. I'm sure Shaq remembers what the Pistons did to him in last year's NBA Finals, so I fully expect the Diesel to play with a chip on his shoulder, and try to re-establish his dominance against Detroit. If his bruised right thigh will allow him to, O'Neal should have no problem making his task easier by getting Ben into foul trouble.
Prediction - The Pistons aren't going to break their laziness habit now, so the Heat will get one game that way. Shaq and Wade will probably both get big numbers in the same game, so there's another for Miami. Other then that, Detroit is just too tough defensively, and has the edge in big game experience as a unit. Pistons in 6.
WEST
San Antonio v Phoenix - As is always the case this time of year, injuries will play a big role in the outcome of this series. We'll see how healthy Tim Duncan's left ankle is right away because his mobility is going to be tested immediately by Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. Joe Johnson received medical clearance on Friday that the surgically repaired area around his left eye has healed enough for him to play. I feel like the perimeter players in this series are pretty evenly matched. Look for Bruce Bowen to switch his defensive assignment between Johnson and Quentin Richardson depending on which one is playing better at the time. The interior match ups are going to dictate this series. I anticipate Duncan starting off on Marion with Nazr Mohammed on Stoudemire, and vice versa. After Amare inevitably gets Nazr into foul trouble, look for good ole Robert Horry to come in and guard the Matrix with Timmy switching over to Stoudemire. I expect to see these four players on the court and going against each other for the vast majority of the minutes in this series. While Duncan could have trouble with Marion's quickness at the start of each half, Horry still has enough athleticism left at 34 to do an above average job shadowing the Matrix. Obviously Tim and Amare is the main event of the series, and whoever has the upper hand in that battle, will give their team a decided advantage. The Suns have a tendency to allow their opponents to get good looks at the basket because Phoenix is so confident in their own ability to score. This is going to have to change against the Spurs, because SA plays very disciplined at the offensive end, and will pick the Suns apart if Phoenix doesn't ratchet up their defensive intensity a notch or two. The Spurs won the season series 2-1, winning in SA 115-94 on 12/28 ,and 128-123 on 1/21 in the Valley of the Sun. The Suns lone win came at home on 3/9, 107-101. Judging by those final scores, I think it's safe to say the Spurs are comfortable playing at Phoenix' pace. That's why I think the team that plays better defense will most likely prevail.
Key match up - Tony Parker & Steve Nash. Nash is playing out of his mind right now, and just shut everyone up who was skeptical about him winning the MVP this year. Steve averaged 30.3 points, 12 assists, and 6.5 rebounds in the last series while shooting 55% from the field, 41.9% from three, and 96.2% from the free throw line. The little Canadian has become the Suns' on court leader, and go to player in the clutch, in just his first season with the club. Parker has traditionally given Nash fits with his quickness off the dribble. When TP is able to get by Steve, and into the teeth of the Phoenix defense, good things usually happen for SA. Parker will have to play much more consistently then he ever has in the playoffs to make Nash work on defense every single game. If TP can get Steve into foul trouble in 2 or more games, that could be the difference in the series.
Prediction - I wouldn't be surprised if this series went either way, and expect it to be much more competitive then some might think. Even though the Suns have home court advantage, and their lack of depth won't hurt them (barring injuries), I see the Spurs playoff experience being the deciding factor. SA in 6.
Mailbag?:
saurinmeht@aol.com
dsura@peacehealth.org
ewwasser@hotmail.com
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:01 AM
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