Monday, May 09, 2005

Monday Morning Mehta 5/9/05

Edition # 118
May 9, 2005

Phils/MLB

Another bad week by the Phillies, going 3-4. Winning 2 out of three against a struggling Cubs team doesn't count as a positive sign. This team is still playing crappy baseball.

Quick Notes:

- Jimmy Rollins is killing this team at the top of the lineup. .285 OB% and he's reverting back to his 2 strikeouts for every 1 walk form of 2001-2003 (17K's/9BB's). He needs to be hitting 6-8th. Unfortunately there's about 5 players on the Phillies who should be hitting there.

- Jon Lieber and Brett Myers deserve some kudos. Myers is looking exactly the polar opposite of how he looked last year.

- Mike Lieberthal is done.

- David Bell stinks.

- It's only a matter of time until Marlon Byrd is leading off again. We all know how this played out last year. Byrd is like a cat with nine lives. Speaking of Byrd, why is he good enough to face Carlos Zambrano, but needs to be pinch hit by Jose Offerman against LaTroy Hawkins who blows (both Hawkins and Offerman that is).

- I hate this team. I'm even angry when they win.

- Give Chase Utley some AB's versus lefties already. He's a future everyday player on this team, he needs to start learning. Utley has a grand total of 4 AB's vs. lefties this year. Pathetic. He's 0 for 4.

- I get the feeling the Phillies brass isn't telling us something about Jim Thome's back. He's seeing a specialist today, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is a prolonged injury type of thing. Also, I'm not banking on the Jim Thome of 1996-2003 ever again.

Around the League

- The New York Yankees finally got some positive momentum over the weekend as they shutout the A's two straight. The Yanks shouldn't start celebrating just yet, the A's stink.

- Speaking of stinking, the Houston Astros are about as awful as it gets right now. They really need help on offense (Willy Taveras at the top of the lineup just isn't getting it done right now). They're hoping the return of Lance Berkman can help, but they still need one more bat.

- The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with an amazing 24-7 record. Amazing stat of the day, they've have the lead at some point in every game this year. I've been watching a lot of the White Sox so far this year, and they're the anti Phillies. Guys get on base at the top of the lineup, they move runners along, do what's called a "hit and run" every now and then, and I even saw what's called a "suicide squeeze" play. If you watch the Phillies you probably aren't familiar with those terms. Oh, and by the way, most importantly, their starters go deep into games and they've even won despite some struggles in their pen. If you watch the Phillies you probably aren't familiar with those terms.

- Break up the Brewers; even without the DL'ed Ben Sheets the Brewers have climbed up to .500 and are playing good baseball. New closer Derrick Turnbow has given this team a big lift, with 4 wins and 3 saves in the last 10 games.

- A team that could be heading for a prolonged struggling period is the Giants. They need to get their act together. Jason Schmidt isn't pitching well, Barry Bonds is out until at least the All Star break and their closer is hurt.

Eagles - MMM

I debated whether I should even mention Freddie Mitchell's name this week since he was recently cut by the Eagles. Mitchell was so bad for the Eagles yet was probably the most talked about and liked (mainly by himself) sucky player in NFL history. He was so bad he couldn't even get a team to give up a 7th rounder for him. Denver, Washington or Tampa look to be landing spots for Mitchell.

Golf - MMM

The Wachovia Championships produced another choke job this year, this time by Sergio Garcia who blew a 6 stroke lead on Sunday and lost in a playoff to Vijay Singh. Singh won in the playoff as Jim Furyk, also in the playoff, choked himself sending his tee shot on the 4th hole of the playoff into the drink. This has been the year of the choke with players like Singh, Mickleson (charter member), and Garcia all partaking in the choking.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Phil Jasner of the Daily News reported on Wednesday that Sixers' chairman Ed Snider had reached a verbal agreement on a contract extension with President/GM Billy King. I guess this is a good thing. I mean, other then the awful contracts BK has signed some mediocre players to, he has done a decent enough job drafting, trading, and hiring coaches in Philly. Enough for at least two more years in my opinion. The Sixers' off season guide will be coming in a few weeks or so.

- I'm not usually one to nit-pick about who won what award, but I think a lot of people missed the boat on this season's 6th man of the year. Ben Gordon had a very impressive year, scoring 10 or more points in the 4th quarter 21 times. While that's a notable feat for a rookie, and no doubt carried him to the award, BG was far less consistent then Ricky Davis was. For all the incredibly clutch moments Gordon had this season, he had just as many games during the year where he was a non-factor (scored less then 10 points 21 times). Where Davis, on the other hand, sparked the Celtics in just about every single game this season (scored less then 10 points only 12 times).

Both played in all 82 games, and when you break down the numbers, Ricky has the edge almost across the board. Points 16 to 15.1. Rebounds 3 to 2.6. Assists 3 to 2. Steals 1.09 to .65. Shooting 46.2% to 41.1%. Gordon takes only 3 point shooting (40.5% to 33.9%) and free throw shooting (86.3% to 81.5%). Granted, Davis averaged more minutes (32.9 to 24.4), but Ricky also started 11 games to BG's 3. They even averaged almost exactly the same numbers of makes and attempts (RD 5.9-12.7 & BG 5.3-12.9).

The 6th man award usually goes to someone that provides instant offense, and since this race was so tight, I think two rather arcane stats point to who the winner should have been. The first is adjusted FG% [(points - made free throws) / field goal attempts] / 2. Davis took this 49.1% to 47.4%. The second is points per shot (points / field goal attempts). Ricky also had the edge here 1.26 to 1.17. I know, that's still very close. What makes this even more wrong to me is that RD is the far better defender too. Which leads me to believe that what swung the voters was the fact that Gordon is a rookie with a solid reputation. Where Davis is on his 4th NBA team in his 7th year, and is well known for a having a me first
attitude. Media bias says what?

- For those of you scoring at home, or even if you're lonely, this makes the second year in a row that I went 8-0 on my first round predictions. All of these previews were written before each series began.

EAST

Washington v Miami - The Heat won the season series 4-0 with a 12.5 point average margin of victory. The Wizards can take solace in the fact that all four games happened very early in the season (between 11/6 and 12/15). Washington will need to really push the ball at every opportunity to get some easy hoops, while not forgetting to make smart basketball decisions, to have any chance to win this series. If the games slow down to a half court pace, the advantage swings heavily in Miami's favor. The Heat play a much more disciplined brand of offense, to go along with their far superior team defense. Wiz' coach Eddie Jordan can try to combat Shaquille O'Neal's dominance by playing a packed in 2-3 zone, thus daring Miami to beat them with jumpers. Using Shaq's man as the screener in pick and rolls involving either Gilbert Arenas or Larry Hughes away from the basket would also be a good idea.

Key match up - Larry Hughes & Dwyane Wade. It's going to be up to Hughes to control Wade's penetration and try and turn him into him a jump shooter. This will help keep Washington's big men out of foul trouble, while not allowing Wade to get his teammates involved on kick outs. Larry must also use his length to deny Wade the ball in the spots where he likes to catch it, hopefully disrupting the Heat's offensive flow. When the Wiz are on offense Hughes must take the ball right at Wade and try to get him in foul trouble. Dwyane's defense is improving, but it's not great yet, so Larry must do his best to exploit it.

Prediction - A well rested and healthy Shaq spells trouble for Washington. Miami in 5.

Indiana v Detroit - I wonder how many times the November 19th brawl is going to be mentioned? I'm not sure, but I'm already sick of it. These teams split their season series 2-2, with the home team going 0-4. This series is going to be very ugly, in a Pat Riley's Heat versus Jeff Van Gundy's Knicks kind of way, which is why I'm not all that excited to watch it. For the Pacers to have any chance at all, they must find a way to score on the Pistons' defense consistently. Improved motion and cuts by the players away from ball on offense would help, as would crisper ball movement in their half court sets. Indy coach Rick Carlisle is going to have to loosen the reigns a bit on his offense, because the Pacers will need as many easy transition baskets as they can get in order to be competitive. Detroit is just a healthier and more talented version of Indy right now, so as long as they play their game, they should be fine.

Key match up - Stephen Jackson & Tayshaun Prince. Jackson is the Pacers' leading scorer in the playoffs, and is really the only Indy player right now that can break his man down and get his own shot. Prince is the Pistons' best perimeter defender, and will try to frustrate Jax by making him work hard for everything he gets. It will be up to Jackson to control his emotions and be patient when looking for his offense. Tay's own offensive game has improved this year, so Jackson must focus on not giving him any wide open jumpers, or allowing Prince lanes to drive to the hoop and create shots for his teammates. Both of these guys are "x-factors" for their clubs.

Prediction - Detroit will lose a game by taking a night off, and the Pacers will win one on their own. Pistons in 6.

WEST

Dallas v Phoenix - This is the series that I'm the most excited about. These teams haven't played since 2/26, with the road team winning every game, and the Suns taking the season series 2-1. The Mavericks are the team that is best equipped (depth & talent wise) to play Phoenix's style, but Dallas must be careful not to get in a full on track meet with the Suns. The Mavs must pick their spots to run, and use the clock when they feel the momentum waning away from them. Making Phoenix play defense is the best way for Dallas to take advantage of their superior depth. While the Mavs have more then enough talent to play small ball with the Suns, the one player Dallas has no answer for is Amare Stoudemire. His combination of size, power, and quickness makes Alan Henderson the best option to defend Amare in my opinion. I expect this series to be high scoring, entertaining, and feature many competitive games that are decided in the closing moments.

Key match up - Dirk Nowitzki & Shawn Marion. Dirk has struggled in the playoffs so far shooting 35.2% from the field and a paltry 28.6% from 3, and facing my defensive player of the year in Marion is not exactly a prescription to fix that. The Matrix has the speed and length to stick with Dirk on the perimeter, and Shawn is such a quick leaper that Nowitzki is going to have trouble executing his post moves as well. Dirk must sprint back on defense and find Marion at all times. The Matrix either fills the lane on the break, or runs to the 3 point line as the trailer on the secondary break. Shawn is a tough cover for Nowitzki, so we'll see how "improved" Dirk's D really is.

Prediction - This is a difficult call for me, and I could really see this series going either way, but I think home court will carry the day in the end. Phoenix in 7.

Seattle v San Antonio - These teams spit their season series 2-2, with each earning a win on the other's home floor. This series is going to feature a major contrast in styles. The Spurs prefer to slow it down and dump the ball into Tim Duncan. While the Sonics like to run and shoot 3's. Seattle will need to consistently shoot the ball well from deep, and ratchet up their team defense a notch or two, in order to have success. Rashard Lewis and/or Vladimir Radmanovic will also have to come up big nightly for the Sonics to be competitive. Seattle was 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage in the regular season at 32.3%, so for the Spurs to control the tempo, they will have to protect their defensive glass. SA has the decided advantage in the paint, and I question whether the Sonics have enough inside to match the Spurs' muscle down low. Look for SA defensive stopper Bruce Bowen to stick with whoever has the hottest hand in crunch time between Ray Allen, Lewis, and Vlade.

Key match up - Ray Allen & Manu Ginobili. Ray has been playing some serious ball in the playoffs (32.4 pts on 51.4% shooting & 45.2% from 3), but defense has never been his strong suit, and guarding Manu is not easy task for anyone. Both of these guys are in constant motion on offense, have the ability to break their man down off the dribble, and can hit an open jumper. Allen is obviously the superior shooter, but Ginobili is better at slashing to the hole. I suspect that Manu will have some help defending Ray over the course of the series, but it will probably be solely Allen's responsibility to check Ginobili, which could lead to Ray wearing down.

Prediction - Seattle has the offensive firepower to make this an interesting series, but the Spurs' discipline and size advantage gives them the edge. SA in 6.

NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser

- Wanna know how bad the Phillies attendance is right now and how badly they want to attract people to the ballpark? June 1st is Nextel Nascar Night, the Phillies are giving away a Nascar cooler bag. That's right...the Phillies are having a give away prize that promotes another sport. I wish I had season tickets. I would write the Phillies a letter saying "your cooler bag made me check out Nascar and I fell in love with it. Phuck the Phillies!!!! Please refund my money so I can buy Nascar tickets". And from the department of 'Only From Phillies' the cooler bag is being given away to Phillies fans that are 14 years old and under. That's right...the cooler bag, a bag that is given that name because it can hold ice and carry cold beverages to Nascar races like say, I don't know, beer for instance, is being given away to children.

- I was watching Dr. Phil's interview with Pat O'Brien last Wednesday and the one thing that really left an impression on me was this....after they played all the tapes of the messages O'Brien left on that women's cell phone ("You are so f'ing hot!! Let's get some coke and some hookers and let's get crazy!!") they showed Pat O'Brien facing the staff of his TV show 'The Insider' for the first time since this whole debacle started. They showed all these women crying at Pat O'Brien's out pouring of emotion. All I could think of was if I was on the staff of 'The Insider' during that Dr. Phil interview and Pat O'Brien was there listening to the messages he left on that chick's cell phone and I was listening to Dr. Phil grill him about it, the camera would pan to one crying woman employee, then to another crying woman employee, then to another crying woman employee, then to me in the corner laughing my ass off. My shoulders would be shrugging, I wouldn't be able to breath, it would be great!!!

- Cool story from of all places the world of tennis. Andy Roddick was playing Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals of the Rome Masters when Verdasco was serving and appeared to double fault. Roddick told the umpire that the ball was in and that it was an ace. He was right, the line judge made a bad call and Verdasco was awarded the point. But that act of sportsmanship cost Roddick the match because Verdasco went on a rally after that and won the match. It was still a cool thing for Roddick to do.

- In closing, it was nice to see George Steinbrenner's horse, Bellamy Road, finish 7th in the Kentucky Derby. The funny part was for Nick Zito, who had 5 horses in the derby, that 7th place finish was his best showing in the race. It was also nice on Friday to see Joe Torre's horse, Sis City, finish 4th in the Kentucky Oaks which is like the Kentucky Derby for 3 year old fillies. Torre's horse was a huge 3 to 5 favorite to boot. It was great to see the two of them have such a bad weekend.

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