Monday Morning Mehta 3/21/05
Edition # 111
March 21, 2005
***Updated on March 23, 2005 -- Golf picks***
March Madness
As usual, after the first two rounds of the tournament, about 90% of people have lost a couple of Final Four teams, many people have already lost their champions. My National Champion North Carolina is still alive, but I did lose two Final Four teams.
Overall, I thought the tournament got off to a slow start. The first day and a half of the tournament was not very exciting, with only a few games coming down to the wire. The Vermont upset of Syracuse and Bucknell's upset of Kansas on Friday night set the tempo for a great weekend of games. One of the best games I've seen in the tournament in years, was the Wake Forest/West Virginia tilt on Saturday night.
Let's breakdown the brackets:
Chicago Region
Pretty much playing out the way most "experts" thought it would with the exception of the Cinderella story of the tournament, UW-Milwaukee. The Panthers play an incredible up tempo, full court press game which can cause a team who doesn't have many ball handlers lots of problems. They're going to give Illinois one heck of a game but in the end I see Illinois winning.
On the other end, Arizona and Oklahoma St. face off in what should be an awesome game. I'll stick with the Oklahoma St. COWBOYS coming out of this bracket.
Albuquerque Bracket
This bracket is totally Broken for me. Wake Forest was pounded in the 2nd half and the OT's by West Virginia. Chris Paul came up pretty small if you ask me. The only thing I've gotten right in this bracket is Texas Tech in the Sweet 16. My Elite 8 pick out of this bracket is Louisville vs. Texas Tech. Tech has got to be one of the fastest teams in the tourney. I'll root for Bobby Knight just because I like the jerk.
Syracuse Bracket
Another bracket I'm pretty much dead on with. I've got Wisky in the Elite 8 (a bracket breaker) and UNC coming out. Nothing should change.
As for Villanova, they've played really well the last 2 games but the injury to Curtis Sumpter is a huge problem. Curtis has developed himself into a big inside/outside threat and can cause matchup problems for UNC. Do not expect Jason Fraser to put up numbers like yesterday, that was merely a product of Florida's personnel. He won't put up numbers like that against Sean May and Marvin Williams. Villanova is red hot, they are capable of beating anybody in the tournament, but I think they're still a year away, and the injury to Sumpter will be debilitating. Allen Ray must step up and play big if the Cats are to win, but I say UNC wins and plays in St. Louis.
Austin Bracket
I've lost my Final Four pick in this bracket (Syracuse) but still have two of the Sweet 16 right in Kentucky and Duke. Duke is just not right. They are not going to win the National title but with Michigan St. and Kentucky as possible roadblocks to the Final four, they can certainly get there. By default, I'll say Kentucky makes the Final Four out of this bracket.
Road to St. Louis
My final was Oklahoma St. versus North Carolina, which is still possible, so the first week, while it hurt me, didn't kill me.
Baseball
I won't steal too much of Ed Wasser's thunder, but I just had to comment on the Congressional hearings last week when they trotted out ballplayers to talk about who knows what. Here's the funniest takeaway from the whole hearings. Mark McGwire's quote (mind you he is on trial and sworn in): "I'm not here to talk about the past. I'm here to be positive about this subject"
Excuse me? The whole thing was a joke because they let McGwire get away with answers like that. "Not here to talk about the past"??? What! That is like someone breaking the law, taking the stand in court and saying, "Well, it's not about me robbing the bank, I want to talk about the future and how I've corrected myself"...No no no no...that's not how it works Mark.
The whole steroid thing is overdone, and is turning into a joke. Let's play ball...
AL Preview NEXT WEEK!
NL Preview April 4th
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Yesterday marked the official one month left to play in the NBA (regular season ends on 4/20). Anyone who's read my stuff over the past 2 years, knows that I look forward to the final month of the season pretty much all year long. I really haven't done much promoting of the league this year, but if you were ever considering buying 'League Pass', now is the time. I know pretty much everyone has been caught up in "March Madness", but NBA games have become noticeably more intense over the last 4-5 days, and you can expect that trend to continue on an upswing over the next few weeks.
As is the custom here at MMM when we reach one month to go, it's time to look at which teams play the best defense, and which teams can win away from home, to give us a barometer of who the championship contenders really are. It's pretty rare that the home team always "holds serve" in the playoffs. That's why I put such an emphasis on the teams that have proven throughout the season they can compete in hostile environments. There are currently only 8 teams in the league that are .500 or better on the road.
Phoenix 26-7
Seattle 23-9
Dallas 21-10
Miami 22-11
San Antonio 19-13
Houston 19-14
Detroit 17-16
Sacramento 17-17
While people like ESPN.com's John Hollinger have developed much more sophisticated ways to measure a team's defensive acumen (see his article from 2/23/05, 'Perception vs. reality', for what I'm talking about), I've always used the more basic opponents field goal percentage (OPPFG%) as my measure of who really can play D. Below are the same 8 team's OPPFG% preceded by their league rank.
#1 Spurs 42.1%
#3 Rockets 42.6%
#4 Heat 42.7%
#6 Pistons 43%
#9 Mavericks 44.1%
#17 Suns 44.7%
#21 Sonics 45.4%
#22 Kings 45.5%
Judging by those two lists, either Miami or Detroit are going to represent the East in the Finals (not that like that is any surprise). The West is far more interesting as I see it though. San Antonio and Dallas look likely to meet in the second round, as do Phoenix and Houston. Those two series' would be much more competitive then you might think, and while the Spurs should still be considered the favorites to come out of the West, it will be far from the cake walk some are predicting.
- You rarely, if ever, hear players using injuries as an excuse, and rightly so. They can't really, because if they do, it's a built in pre-excuse for playing poorly, and thus a losing mentality. From a player's perspective they have to step on the court focused on the task at hand. They can't be thinking, "I hope I'm able to play through the pain" or "I hope this injury doesn't hamper my ability to perform at my normal level". They have to block out the pain, and have a "I'm going to give 100%, just like any other game" type of attitude. To their credit, almost all great players do this, and never blame their injury for their poor play, and/or the loss, in post game interviews.
Now that's not to say pundits, such as myself, shouldn't be allowed to use injuries as a way explain a particular outcome. The rational is simple. If a team loses their best player, said team is obviously not going to be as good. Examples of this are plentiful, and rather obvious, but two from this year are Andrei Kirilenko in Utah and Zach Randolph in Portland. However, if a team loses a role player, they may or may not be able to maintain their same level of play depending on their depth, and how integral said role player was to his team's success. Dallas has had players in and out of their lineup all year due to injuries, but their depth has allowed them to remain competitive.
As has become the norm at this time of year, the injury bug has started to rear it's ugly head and affect many playoff contenders. If you are a long time reader, you are well aware that I despise when teams are less then 100% healthy when the post season rolls around. It's probably a little annoying to read about it every season since there's really nothing that can be done about it. My solution would be to shorten the season by about 15-20 games. While I'm almost certain the players and coaches would like it, there's no way the owners or commissioner would ever go for it. Too much revenue would be lost, and as is the case with all sports these days, the almighty dollar is more important then a quality product for the fans. (Making the court wider would really help the NBA game too, but that would eliminate some of the highest priced seats in every building) So here is a list of the walking wounded, and how it will affect each teams chances down the stretch.
Indiana (33-32) - Jermaine O'Neal has a sprained right shoulder that he is hoping will heal on it's own, so he won't need surgery where the recovery time would cause him to miss some games next season. Regardless, JO is out of the remainder of this season, and his return for the playoffs is highly doubtful as well. Talk about a year to forget. The Pacers would probably like to take a mulligan on this whole season, and just start over next year. Indy has plenty of beef up front to replace JO's defense and rebounding, but they are really going to miss his low post offense. The Pacers are now without their 3 best players in JO, Ron Artest (suspended), and Jamaal Tinsley (bruised left foot), so one would think they are dead in the water as far as the post season is concerned. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!" With the way Orlando has been playing recently, if Indy is able to play .500 ball for the rest of the season, that should be enough for them to make it.
Sacramento (41-27) - Brad Miller broke his left leg during a light shooting drill in practice, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. His return for the playoffs is still up in the air, but the players acquired in the recent Chris Webber trade give the Kings enough depth to weather this storm. Brian Skinner has played very well for Sacto since his arrival from Philadelphia, averaging 34.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.7 bpg, and shooting 56.8% from the field for the month of March. Cuttino Mobley sat out yesterday's game with a hairline fracture of his fourth left toe. Barring an unforeseen major collapse, I don't think the Kings are in danger of missing the playoffs, but they could fall as low as #7 if they are not careful. However, I don't see Sacto advancing past round one without B Miller and/or Cat back in their lineup.
Houston (39-27) - Juwan Howard has a sprained his right knee, and will be out at least a month. That would make his possible return about the same time as the playoffs are set to begin, which is never an easy time to work a key role player back into the starting lineup. Juwan has been the Rockets' starting PF for 47 of their 66 games, and even though his numbers are modest (26.6 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, & 45.1% shooting), he has developed a nice chemistry with Yao Ming. Juwan was able to play the high post on offense, allowing Yao to work on the low block, while also having Yao's back on defense. Houston was well on their way to claiming the 5th seed in the West, but since they don't really have anyone to replace what Juwan brings to the table (coach Jeff Van Gundy has resorted to starting Clarence Weatherspoon, if that tells you anything), they may have to settle for #7.
Seattle (45-20) - Vladimir Radmanovic has a stress fracture in his right leg, and will be out 4-6 weeks. Meaning he is done for the rest of the regular season at minimum. Even though their record might not reflect it, the Sonics have not been playing near their best ball for over a month now. Reports of team dissention surfaced this week in Seattle after they lost in Detroit (95-102). That's why losing 6th man of the year candidate, Vlade Rade (29.5 mpg, 11.8 ppg, & 38.9% from three), could not have come at a worse time. Coach Nate McMillan has said he's going to use Ronald "Flip" Murray in the instant offense off the bench role until Vlade returns. The problem with that is, Flip is 6 inches shorter then Vlade, and doesn't create near the mismatches Radmanovic does. The Sonics have had the Northwest Division, and 3rd seed, wrapped up for some time now, but Vlade Rade is such an important cog in what they do offensively, that if isn't back for the playoffs, I don't like Seattle's chances to get out of the first round.
Washington (36-28) - Antawn Jamison was placed on the injured list Friday with right knee tendonitis, meaning the earliest he can return is 3/27 in Seattle. Tendonitis is a very common problem for NBA players, and varies in severity on a case by case basis. I watch the Wizards play a lot, and Antawn looked absolutely terrible in the last 5 to 7 games he played in. He just could not get up and down the court, and had lost all his explosiveness around the basket. I'm sure many MMM readers will disagree with this, but for my money Jamison has been Washington's most important player this season. His unique game in the paint gives the Wiz a dimension that most teams in the East have a problem matching up with. With Jarvis Hayes also on the injured list (fractured right patella), it will be up to Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes to pick up the scoring slack, and if Kwame Brown was ever going to show anything, now would be his time. I don't see Washington missing the playoffs, but falling as low as #6 would not be out of the question. No matter where they end up, they won't win a round without Jamison at 80% or better.
Lakers (32-34) - Lamar Odom suffered a strained left shoulder Friday in Indiana. While his prognosis is not yet known, suffice it to say that the Lakers already near impossible road to the playoffs just got much more difficult. L.A. has 16 games remaining, 9 of which are on the road. Odom averages 36.3 mpg, 15.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.02 bpg, and shoots 47.3% from the field. For all of Lamar's versatility, the Lakers will miss his rebounding the most. His 8.1 defensive rpg is near double what anyone else on the team pulls down (Kobe Bryant 4.7 drpg). For L.A. to have any chance at all of making the post season, every single player will need to step it up. Most notably Chris Mihm will have to stay out of foul trouble and really focus on cleaning the defensive glass. Brian Grant will also have to be more consistent in an expanded role. Lastly, one of Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins, Jumaine Jones, Slava Medvedenko, or Brian Cook will have to step up and score every night. All that said, you can stick a fork in the Lakers, as their season in done.
Chicago (33-31) - Eddy Curry has missed the last 3 games, and is day to day with a strained left hamstring. Rookie Luol Deng may return tonight from a sprained right ankle. The Bulls have not really lost a step in their absence's because of the type of defense they play (42.3% OPPFG%, 2nd overall). That consistent effort on the defensive end, along with coach Scott Skiles having many interchangeable parts to plug in where needed, has kept Chicago right in the think of the Eastern Conference playoff chase. It's not inconceivable that the Bulls end up as high as #4 when Curry and Deng come back. On the other hand, it's also possible that due to their lack of big game experience they fall apart down the stretch and miss the post season all together.
San Antonio (50-16) - Tim Duncan has been struggling with a sprained right ankle since 2/7, and Manu Ginobili with a strained right groin since 2/22. If I'm the Spurs' brain trust, I sit both of them as long as necessary. I'd be less worried about competing with Miami and Phoenix for the best record overall, and more concerned with getting Tim and Manu as healthy as possible for the post season. S.A. obviously would be in trouble without Duncan in the playoffs, but Ginobili probably wouldn't be needed until the second round. An ideal situation for the Spurs would be that Tim and Manu come back for the last week of the season (4 games), to get accustomed to game speed again, then are fine for the playoffs.
- I know I said in last week's MMM that if the Sixers went 2-1 that would constitute a "great" week. Well, like a flag in the wind, I changed my mind after watching them lose to Chicago on Saturday night. Philly got outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter, had 7 more turnovers then the Bulls (21-14), and blew a golden opportunity to reach .500 (lost 88-94). Allen Iverson had 11 turnovers himself, which tells me he's trying to do too much (as usual). Everyone wants to know why Chris Webber and AI have yet to gel. Coach Jim O'Brien deserves some blame for not forcing the team to run plays for C-Web, even though he may be struggling offensively. Webber deserves some blame for pouting way too soon after his arrival, and letting it have a negative effect on his production. For me though, the vast majority of the blame should fall to AI himself. AI has averaged 24.8 field goal attempts since C-Web's arrival, that's actually UP from his season average of 24 FGA's per game. Over those same 12 games, his scoring is up from 30.3 to 32.6 ppg, but his 41.7% to 42.6% shooting improvement probably explains that. His turnovers are up from 4.5 to 6.1 topg, and his assists are up only slightly from 7.7 to 7.8 apg. Those numbers don't lie people, AI has NOT adjusted his game to make C-Web's transition a smooth one. Hopefully, at some point, AI will realize that his own legacy depends on how much success he and C-Web achieve as a tandem.
The Sixers are 32-34 and currently hold down the 8th seed in the East in a tiebreaker over Orlando (split the season series 2-2, but have a better conference record then the Magic 23-17 to 17-21). This week brings Philly: Detroit, Toronto, @Lakers. The Sixers owe the Raptors for the 128-110 drubbing they laid on Philly on 3/13. Another 2-1 week seems possible.
- On Saturday Don Nelson resigned as head coach of the Dallas Mavericks (43-22) with the second most coaching victories in NBA history (27 year career, 1190-880 record). Nellie was 339-251 in Dallas, which is good for the franchise lead in both wins and winning percentage. The timing of the move came as a bit of a surprise, but it does not really leave the team in the lurch. However unorthodox it was, Avery Johnson (Nellie's permanent replacement) had been running Mavs' practices since training camp, and had even coached 14 games (going 10-4) while Nellie was away from the team for various reasons. Nellie said he though it was time because he saw "a little slippage as a team." He went on to say, "The team is just responding better to Avery at this point. We want to win games and we want to get better, and I didn't see us doing either of the above since the All-Star game." According to co-captain Michael Finley Avery takes "20 to 30 minutes every day just to harp on us about defense." Avery seemed to echo that sentiment when he said, "We're not trying to abandon the things that coach has implemented here, but there are some things that I feel a little stronger about." Supposedly owner Mark Cuban was going to make the change this summer anyway, and if the team was really responding better to Avery right now, I don't see the harm is making the change sooner rather then later. As for Nellie, even though he never coached a team to the NBA Finals, he will surely go down as a top 10 coach in the history of the league.
- On Thursday Orlando Magic GM John Weisbrod made the bold move of firing head coach Johnny Davis, and his assistant in charge of defense Ron Ekker, with 18 games left in their season, and the team competing for a playoff spot. Then, to top it off, Weisbrod named assistant Chris Jent interim coach, even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. Did I say bold? I think I meant asinine. Don't get me wrong here, I'm not saying that Davis was even a good coach (51-84 with Orlando, 73-144 overall). In fact, this is what I wrote in my pre-season preview of the Magic: "With all that change comes unavoidable chemistry issues, and that's where I start to worry about coach Johnny Davis (42-111 in 2 years as an NBA head coach). I just don't see him commanding the respect it will take to be able to mold all those new faces into a cohesive unit in one year, if ever." That said, for a team in the thick of the playoff hunt, changing head coaches so late in the season doesn't really improve their post season hopes any. For all the new energy and attitude Jent might bring, there's always an adjustment period when the dust settles after the "new coach bounce" is over, and Orlando really can't afford to have kind of downswing over the final month of play.
Are the Magic's (32-34) struggles really all Davis' fault though? Johnny wasn't the guy who traded Cuttino Mobley and Michael Bradley for a broken down Doug Christie after all. If I had to pin point it, that's really when Orlando started to struggle. There was also the Drew Gooden (starting PF in Cleveland), Anderson Varejao (young big man with "upside"), and Steven Hunter (released by Cleveland, and now a key reserve in Phoenix) for Tony Battie (23.7 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, & .98 bpg) and 2 second round picks deal last summer. I think it's safe to say Weisbrod was completely fleeced in both of those transactions. Now comes word that Steve Francis is suspended indefinitely for kicking a courtside photographer in Seattle on Friday night. I'm sure many of you remember Dennis Rodman doing the same thing in 1997. The Rodmonian was suspended 11 games for that altercation, so there is some precedent. Since the Magic only have 16 games left, and a brand new coach, losing their most talented player for at least 10 more games would be disastrous for their season.
Top 10
1. Miami (1)
2. Phoenix (2)
3. Detroit (5)
4. San Antonio (3)
5. Dallas (4)
6. Seattle (7)
7. Boston (9)
8. Memphis (10)
9. Houston (6)
10. Denver (-)
*Note: All statistical data does not include Sunday's games.
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- Set your phasers to ridiculous!! Last weeks Congressional steroid hearings were the biggest waste of time since Tom Cruise went on the Rosie O'Donnell show and pretended like some day they would be married. I could go on and on about this but I'm just not drunk enough to handle it. The entire idiotic adventure can be summed with one line. Congresswoman Diane Watson from Los Angeles said in her opening statement that "20% of all 8th graders surveyed admitted to using steroids". Huh? Guess how many people, even her own colleagues, challenged the validity of that outrageous claim? Zero, none. Right after she made that jackass statement every reporter in the United States should have called her on it but of course nobody said a word, except me of course. Every reporter was a total pus.....I can't write it but you know what I mean. Think about it, a legal tub of protein from GNC is about $60. How much do you think Balco was charging for illegal steroids? It had to be thousands of dollars or else it wouldn't be worth it. And how would an 8th grader get a hold of thousands of dollars of illegal steroids? We're supposed to assume that 20% of all the 8th graders in the country are on steroids by that moronic statistic, just how many kids is 20% of the 8th grade population? 3 million kids? Maybe 4 million? And we're supposed to believe that's how many 8th graders are using steroids?!?! Have any of you seen an extraordinary amount of 8th graders walking around that are built like brick sheisthouses with gigantic heads? The worst part of the hearings was that, if they had left out the baseball players, some good may have come out of it. But Congress wanted to make the whole thing a spectacle by forcing the ball players to show up. So we had José Canseco loving life because he could feel his book flying off the shelves as he was testifying, Curt Schilling who loves being in the spot light no matter what, Sammy Sosa who pretended not to be able to speak English and just acted like Pedro the mascot from South of the Border, South Carolina (Pedro seez....me no speak English!! Stop at South of de Border y compre fireworks mi amigo!). Sosa should have just completed the whole look and wore a poncho and a sombrero and rode in on a donkey. Raphael Palmiero was like Pacino in 'Scent of A Woman' ("I would take a flame thrower to this committee!!) and was Mark McGwire there to talk about the past? I'm not sure. The hearings were a complete and total JOKE!!!
- Lance Armstrong admitted last Tuesday that he is way behind on his Tour De France training right now. Hey Lance, don't feel bad, you should see how far behind I am on my Tour De France training. I get tired going downhill.
- A few quick things...will someone please tell CBS color analyst Bob Wenzel that the nickname of the Bucknell sports teams is the Bison (pronounced byesin) and not Bison (pronounced bye-SAHN). While we're at it, while it is true that when someone is naked you can see their butt will someone please tell all the rappers out there that the actual expression is BUCK naked and not BUTT naked. And lastly I was watching the Sylvester Stallone 'True Hollywood Story' and the announcer said 'Stallone made the forgettable film Victory' Whaaaaaa?!?! The movie Victory was phenomenal!! And Stallone was great in it.
- Just gotta mention that the Sylvester Stallone TV show 'The Contender' is great. Unlike 'The Next Great Champ' were the fighters fought like old ladies at Acme arguing over the last honey dew mellon these guys actually know how to box. Word on the street is that the ratings for 'The Contender' are lower then a regular season Ducks/Hurricanes game on ESPN so the show needs your help. Check it out...you won't be disappointed. Is there a better way to spend a Sunday then watching basketball all day, 'The Contender' at 8PM, and then 'Spring Break Shark Attack' at 9PM?
- Last Monday Fairway Miss ran in a $16,000 claiming race. A claiming race is a race in which a person can put in a 'claim' on your horse prior to the race and as soon as that race starts, that person now owns the horse. Claming races are a way to keep things in horse racing on the level. This was a step down in class for Fairway but the trainer was trying to get her a victory. Fairway was starting from the 7th position in a 7 horse race with David Mello in the irons. Before I forget....horses sweat out of their mouths, the sweat is this disgusting white foamy saliva. So Fairway comes to the paddock with this white stuff in her mouth and I jokingly say to Robert the groom "you should wipe that stuff out of her mouth" thinking that Robert would look at me like I'm nuts. Without skipping a beat Robert shoves his bare hand in Fairway's mouth and starts to scoop out the foam. I said "YO DUDE!! I was just kidding!!" "Oh...I thought you were serious", Robert says as he wipes his hands on his jeans. So the race starts and Fairway is in great shape, staying about 4 lengths off the pace for the majority of the race. When the horses hit the stretch David swung her to the outside and had clear sailing to the finish line. Fairway picked up a few positions but ended up 3rd, it was a photo for 2nd which she literally missed by inches. After the race I walked to the paddock to talk to David and tell him what a good job I thought he did. David said "I thought I had it, she just didn't give me that next gear like she usually does. Anyway, I heard she got claimed". "Huh?" With that the announcer comes on and says "Fairway Miss was claimed by trainer Ronald Dandy for Michael McMahon". I'm sad to see Fairway go but from a business standpoint it was the best thing that could've happened. Fairway has a bone chip in her knee which will require surgery down the line. I believe the bone chip was the reason Fairway wasn't able to kick into the next gear after getting clear sailing down the stretch. I'm told when the new owners came to get her from her stall the day after the race she couldn't even walk. As our horse Fairway Miss had 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, and 1 fifth, that means as our horse she cashed a check everytime she ran. So long Fairway!! So the search for a new horse begins.
March 21, 2005
***Updated on March 23, 2005 -- Golf picks***
March Madness
As usual, after the first two rounds of the tournament, about 90% of people have lost a couple of Final Four teams, many people have already lost their champions. My National Champion North Carolina is still alive, but I did lose two Final Four teams.
Overall, I thought the tournament got off to a slow start. The first day and a half of the tournament was not very exciting, with only a few games coming down to the wire. The Vermont upset of Syracuse and Bucknell's upset of Kansas on Friday night set the tempo for a great weekend of games. One of the best games I've seen in the tournament in years, was the Wake Forest/West Virginia tilt on Saturday night.
Let's breakdown the brackets:
Chicago Region
Pretty much playing out the way most "experts" thought it would with the exception of the Cinderella story of the tournament, UW-Milwaukee. The Panthers play an incredible up tempo, full court press game which can cause a team who doesn't have many ball handlers lots of problems. They're going to give Illinois one heck of a game but in the end I see Illinois winning.
On the other end, Arizona and Oklahoma St. face off in what should be an awesome game. I'll stick with the Oklahoma St. COWBOYS coming out of this bracket.
Albuquerque Bracket
This bracket is totally Broken for me. Wake Forest was pounded in the 2nd half and the OT's by West Virginia. Chris Paul came up pretty small if you ask me. The only thing I've gotten right in this bracket is Texas Tech in the Sweet 16. My Elite 8 pick out of this bracket is Louisville vs. Texas Tech. Tech has got to be one of the fastest teams in the tourney. I'll root for Bobby Knight just because I like the jerk.
Syracuse Bracket
Another bracket I'm pretty much dead on with. I've got Wisky in the Elite 8 (a bracket breaker) and UNC coming out. Nothing should change.
As for Villanova, they've played really well the last 2 games but the injury to Curtis Sumpter is a huge problem. Curtis has developed himself into a big inside/outside threat and can cause matchup problems for UNC. Do not expect Jason Fraser to put up numbers like yesterday, that was merely a product of Florida's personnel. He won't put up numbers like that against Sean May and Marvin Williams. Villanova is red hot, they are capable of beating anybody in the tournament, but I think they're still a year away, and the injury to Sumpter will be debilitating. Allen Ray must step up and play big if the Cats are to win, but I say UNC wins and plays in St. Louis.
Austin Bracket
I've lost my Final Four pick in this bracket (Syracuse) but still have two of the Sweet 16 right in Kentucky and Duke. Duke is just not right. They are not going to win the National title but with Michigan St. and Kentucky as possible roadblocks to the Final four, they can certainly get there. By default, I'll say Kentucky makes the Final Four out of this bracket.
Road to St. Louis
My final was Oklahoma St. versus North Carolina, which is still possible, so the first week, while it hurt me, didn't kill me.
Baseball
I won't steal too much of Ed Wasser's thunder, but I just had to comment on the Congressional hearings last week when they trotted out ballplayers to talk about who knows what. Here's the funniest takeaway from the whole hearings. Mark McGwire's quote (mind you he is on trial and sworn in): "I'm not here to talk about the past. I'm here to be positive about this subject"
Excuse me? The whole thing was a joke because they let McGwire get away with answers like that. "Not here to talk about the past"??? What! That is like someone breaking the law, taking the stand in court and saying, "Well, it's not about me robbing the bank, I want to talk about the future and how I've corrected myself"...No no no no...that's not how it works Mark.
The whole steroid thing is overdone, and is turning into a joke. Let's play ball...
AL Preview NEXT WEEK!
NL Preview April 4th
Golf
Vijay Singh chokes again on the 18th hole, this time in regulation as he puts his approach shot into the drink to give Kenny Perry the victory at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Invitational. Last week Singh missed a tap in par putt on the 2nd hole of a playoff with Paddy Harrington.
This weekend brings one of my favorite tournaments, The Players Championship at one of the best courses in the country TPC Sawgrass. The famous island 17th green is always an adventure, especially if the wind is blowing.
My early pick is Vijay Singh, as I think he'll have the most riding on this after two straight weeks of 'choking' (using the word lightly). I'll update the website with my official pick by Wednesday night.
I will stick with Vijay as the winner, but also like Paddy Harrington's chances. The dark horse pick, although he's not quiet, would be Sergio Garcia. I expect an awesome leaderboard with Tiger, Vijay, Ernie, Phil, Sergio, and Paddy in the top 15...
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Yesterday marked the official one month left to play in the NBA (regular season ends on 4/20). Anyone who's read my stuff over the past 2 years, knows that I look forward to the final month of the season pretty much all year long. I really haven't done much promoting of the league this year, but if you were ever considering buying 'League Pass', now is the time. I know pretty much everyone has been caught up in "March Madness", but NBA games have become noticeably more intense over the last 4-5 days, and you can expect that trend to continue on an upswing over the next few weeks.
As is the custom here at MMM when we reach one month to go, it's time to look at which teams play the best defense, and which teams can win away from home, to give us a barometer of who the championship contenders really are. It's pretty rare that the home team always "holds serve" in the playoffs. That's why I put such an emphasis on the teams that have proven throughout the season they can compete in hostile environments. There are currently only 8 teams in the league that are .500 or better on the road.
Phoenix 26-7
Seattle 23-9
Dallas 21-10
Miami 22-11
San Antonio 19-13
Houston 19-14
Detroit 17-16
Sacramento 17-17
While people like ESPN.com's John Hollinger have developed much more sophisticated ways to measure a team's defensive acumen (see his article from 2/23/05, 'Perception vs. reality', for what I'm talking about), I've always used the more basic opponents field goal percentage (OPPFG%) as my measure of who really can play D. Below are the same 8 team's OPPFG% preceded by their league rank.
#1 Spurs 42.1%
#3 Rockets 42.6%
#4 Heat 42.7%
#6 Pistons 43%
#9 Mavericks 44.1%
#17 Suns 44.7%
#21 Sonics 45.4%
#22 Kings 45.5%
Judging by those two lists, either Miami or Detroit are going to represent the East in the Finals (not that like that is any surprise). The West is far more interesting as I see it though. San Antonio and Dallas look likely to meet in the second round, as do Phoenix and Houston. Those two series' would be much more competitive then you might think, and while the Spurs should still be considered the favorites to come out of the West, it will be far from the cake walk some are predicting.
- You rarely, if ever, hear players using injuries as an excuse, and rightly so. They can't really, because if they do, it's a built in pre-excuse for playing poorly, and thus a losing mentality. From a player's perspective they have to step on the court focused on the task at hand. They can't be thinking, "I hope I'm able to play through the pain" or "I hope this injury doesn't hamper my ability to perform at my normal level". They have to block out the pain, and have a "I'm going to give 100%, just like any other game" type of attitude. To their credit, almost all great players do this, and never blame their injury for their poor play, and/or the loss, in post game interviews.
Now that's not to say pundits, such as myself, shouldn't be allowed to use injuries as a way explain a particular outcome. The rational is simple. If a team loses their best player, said team is obviously not going to be as good. Examples of this are plentiful, and rather obvious, but two from this year are Andrei Kirilenko in Utah and Zach Randolph in Portland. However, if a team loses a role player, they may or may not be able to maintain their same level of play depending on their depth, and how integral said role player was to his team's success. Dallas has had players in and out of their lineup all year due to injuries, but their depth has allowed them to remain competitive.
As has become the norm at this time of year, the injury bug has started to rear it's ugly head and affect many playoff contenders. If you are a long time reader, you are well aware that I despise when teams are less then 100% healthy when the post season rolls around. It's probably a little annoying to read about it every season since there's really nothing that can be done about it. My solution would be to shorten the season by about 15-20 games. While I'm almost certain the players and coaches would like it, there's no way the owners or commissioner would ever go for it. Too much revenue would be lost, and as is the case with all sports these days, the almighty dollar is more important then a quality product for the fans. (Making the court wider would really help the NBA game too, but that would eliminate some of the highest priced seats in every building) So here is a list of the walking wounded, and how it will affect each teams chances down the stretch.
Indiana (33-32) - Jermaine O'Neal has a sprained right shoulder that he is hoping will heal on it's own, so he won't need surgery where the recovery time would cause him to miss some games next season. Regardless, JO is out of the remainder of this season, and his return for the playoffs is highly doubtful as well. Talk about a year to forget. The Pacers would probably like to take a mulligan on this whole season, and just start over next year. Indy has plenty of beef up front to replace JO's defense and rebounding, but they are really going to miss his low post offense. The Pacers are now without their 3 best players in JO, Ron Artest (suspended), and Jamaal Tinsley (bruised left foot), so one would think they are dead in the water as far as the post season is concerned. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!" With the way Orlando has been playing recently, if Indy is able to play .500 ball for the rest of the season, that should be enough for them to make it.
Sacramento (41-27) - Brad Miller broke his left leg during a light shooting drill in practice, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. His return for the playoffs is still up in the air, but the players acquired in the recent Chris Webber trade give the Kings enough depth to weather this storm. Brian Skinner has played very well for Sacto since his arrival from Philadelphia, averaging 34.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.7 bpg, and shooting 56.8% from the field for the month of March. Cuttino Mobley sat out yesterday's game with a hairline fracture of his fourth left toe. Barring an unforeseen major collapse, I don't think the Kings are in danger of missing the playoffs, but they could fall as low as #7 if they are not careful. However, I don't see Sacto advancing past round one without B Miller and/or Cat back in their lineup.
Houston (39-27) - Juwan Howard has a sprained his right knee, and will be out at least a month. That would make his possible return about the same time as the playoffs are set to begin, which is never an easy time to work a key role player back into the starting lineup. Juwan has been the Rockets' starting PF for 47 of their 66 games, and even though his numbers are modest (26.6 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, & 45.1% shooting), he has developed a nice chemistry with Yao Ming. Juwan was able to play the high post on offense, allowing Yao to work on the low block, while also having Yao's back on defense. Houston was well on their way to claiming the 5th seed in the West, but since they don't really have anyone to replace what Juwan brings to the table (coach Jeff Van Gundy has resorted to starting Clarence Weatherspoon, if that tells you anything), they may have to settle for #7.
Seattle (45-20) - Vladimir Radmanovic has a stress fracture in his right leg, and will be out 4-6 weeks. Meaning he is done for the rest of the regular season at minimum. Even though their record might not reflect it, the Sonics have not been playing near their best ball for over a month now. Reports of team dissention surfaced this week in Seattle after they lost in Detroit (95-102). That's why losing 6th man of the year candidate, Vlade Rade (29.5 mpg, 11.8 ppg, & 38.9% from three), could not have come at a worse time. Coach Nate McMillan has said he's going to use Ronald "Flip" Murray in the instant offense off the bench role until Vlade returns. The problem with that is, Flip is 6 inches shorter then Vlade, and doesn't create near the mismatches Radmanovic does. The Sonics have had the Northwest Division, and 3rd seed, wrapped up for some time now, but Vlade Rade is such an important cog in what they do offensively, that if isn't back for the playoffs, I don't like Seattle's chances to get out of the first round.
Washington (36-28) - Antawn Jamison was placed on the injured list Friday with right knee tendonitis, meaning the earliest he can return is 3/27 in Seattle. Tendonitis is a very common problem for NBA players, and varies in severity on a case by case basis. I watch the Wizards play a lot, and Antawn looked absolutely terrible in the last 5 to 7 games he played in. He just could not get up and down the court, and had lost all his explosiveness around the basket. I'm sure many MMM readers will disagree with this, but for my money Jamison has been Washington's most important player this season. His unique game in the paint gives the Wiz a dimension that most teams in the East have a problem matching up with. With Jarvis Hayes also on the injured list (fractured right patella), it will be up to Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes to pick up the scoring slack, and if Kwame Brown was ever going to show anything, now would be his time. I don't see Washington missing the playoffs, but falling as low as #6 would not be out of the question. No matter where they end up, they won't win a round without Jamison at 80% or better.
Lakers (32-34) - Lamar Odom suffered a strained left shoulder Friday in Indiana. While his prognosis is not yet known, suffice it to say that the Lakers already near impossible road to the playoffs just got much more difficult. L.A. has 16 games remaining, 9 of which are on the road. Odom averages 36.3 mpg, 15.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.02 bpg, and shoots 47.3% from the field. For all of Lamar's versatility, the Lakers will miss his rebounding the most. His 8.1 defensive rpg is near double what anyone else on the team pulls down (Kobe Bryant 4.7 drpg). For L.A. to have any chance at all of making the post season, every single player will need to step it up. Most notably Chris Mihm will have to stay out of foul trouble and really focus on cleaning the defensive glass. Brian Grant will also have to be more consistent in an expanded role. Lastly, one of Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins, Jumaine Jones, Slava Medvedenko, or Brian Cook will have to step up and score every night. All that said, you can stick a fork in the Lakers, as their season in done.
Chicago (33-31) - Eddy Curry has missed the last 3 games, and is day to day with a strained left hamstring. Rookie Luol Deng may return tonight from a sprained right ankle. The Bulls have not really lost a step in their absence's because of the type of defense they play (42.3% OPPFG%, 2nd overall). That consistent effort on the defensive end, along with coach Scott Skiles having many interchangeable parts to plug in where needed, has kept Chicago right in the think of the Eastern Conference playoff chase. It's not inconceivable that the Bulls end up as high as #4 when Curry and Deng come back. On the other hand, it's also possible that due to their lack of big game experience they fall apart down the stretch and miss the post season all together.
San Antonio (50-16) - Tim Duncan has been struggling with a sprained right ankle since 2/7, and Manu Ginobili with a strained right groin since 2/22. If I'm the Spurs' brain trust, I sit both of them as long as necessary. I'd be less worried about competing with Miami and Phoenix for the best record overall, and more concerned with getting Tim and Manu as healthy as possible for the post season. S.A. obviously would be in trouble without Duncan in the playoffs, but Ginobili probably wouldn't be needed until the second round. An ideal situation for the Spurs would be that Tim and Manu come back for the last week of the season (4 games), to get accustomed to game speed again, then are fine for the playoffs.
- I know I said in last week's MMM that if the Sixers went 2-1 that would constitute a "great" week. Well, like a flag in the wind, I changed my mind after watching them lose to Chicago on Saturday night. Philly got outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter, had 7 more turnovers then the Bulls (21-14), and blew a golden opportunity to reach .500 (lost 88-94). Allen Iverson had 11 turnovers himself, which tells me he's trying to do too much (as usual). Everyone wants to know why Chris Webber and AI have yet to gel. Coach Jim O'Brien deserves some blame for not forcing the team to run plays for C-Web, even though he may be struggling offensively. Webber deserves some blame for pouting way too soon after his arrival, and letting it have a negative effect on his production. For me though, the vast majority of the blame should fall to AI himself. AI has averaged 24.8 field goal attempts since C-Web's arrival, that's actually UP from his season average of 24 FGA's per game. Over those same 12 games, his scoring is up from 30.3 to 32.6 ppg, but his 41.7% to 42.6% shooting improvement probably explains that. His turnovers are up from 4.5 to 6.1 topg, and his assists are up only slightly from 7.7 to 7.8 apg. Those numbers don't lie people, AI has NOT adjusted his game to make C-Web's transition a smooth one. Hopefully, at some point, AI will realize that his own legacy depends on how much success he and C-Web achieve as a tandem.
The Sixers are 32-34 and currently hold down the 8th seed in the East in a tiebreaker over Orlando (split the season series 2-2, but have a better conference record then the Magic 23-17 to 17-21). This week brings Philly: Detroit, Toronto, @Lakers. The Sixers owe the Raptors for the 128-110 drubbing they laid on Philly on 3/13. Another 2-1 week seems possible.
- On Saturday Don Nelson resigned as head coach of the Dallas Mavericks (43-22) with the second most coaching victories in NBA history (27 year career, 1190-880 record). Nellie was 339-251 in Dallas, which is good for the franchise lead in both wins and winning percentage. The timing of the move came as a bit of a surprise, but it does not really leave the team in the lurch. However unorthodox it was, Avery Johnson (Nellie's permanent replacement) had been running Mavs' practices since training camp, and had even coached 14 games (going 10-4) while Nellie was away from the team for various reasons. Nellie said he though it was time because he saw "a little slippage as a team." He went on to say, "The team is just responding better to Avery at this point. We want to win games and we want to get better, and I didn't see us doing either of the above since the All-Star game." According to co-captain Michael Finley Avery takes "20 to 30 minutes every day just to harp on us about defense." Avery seemed to echo that sentiment when he said, "We're not trying to abandon the things that coach has implemented here, but there are some things that I feel a little stronger about." Supposedly owner Mark Cuban was going to make the change this summer anyway, and if the team was really responding better to Avery right now, I don't see the harm is making the change sooner rather then later. As for Nellie, even though he never coached a team to the NBA Finals, he will surely go down as a top 10 coach in the history of the league.
- On Thursday Orlando Magic GM John Weisbrod made the bold move of firing head coach Johnny Davis, and his assistant in charge of defense Ron Ekker, with 18 games left in their season, and the team competing for a playoff spot. Then, to top it off, Weisbrod named assistant Chris Jent interim coach, even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. Did I say bold? I think I meant asinine. Don't get me wrong here, I'm not saying that Davis was even a good coach (51-84 with Orlando, 73-144 overall). In fact, this is what I wrote in my pre-season preview of the Magic: "With all that change comes unavoidable chemistry issues, and that's where I start to worry about coach Johnny Davis (42-111 in 2 years as an NBA head coach). I just don't see him commanding the respect it will take to be able to mold all those new faces into a cohesive unit in one year, if ever." That said, for a team in the thick of the playoff hunt, changing head coaches so late in the season doesn't really improve their post season hopes any. For all the new energy and attitude Jent might bring, there's always an adjustment period when the dust settles after the "new coach bounce" is over, and Orlando really can't afford to have kind of downswing over the final month of play.
Are the Magic's (32-34) struggles really all Davis' fault though? Johnny wasn't the guy who traded Cuttino Mobley and Michael Bradley for a broken down Doug Christie after all. If I had to pin point it, that's really when Orlando started to struggle. There was also the Drew Gooden (starting PF in Cleveland), Anderson Varejao (young big man with "upside"), and Steven Hunter (released by Cleveland, and now a key reserve in Phoenix) for Tony Battie (23.7 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, & .98 bpg) and 2 second round picks deal last summer. I think it's safe to say Weisbrod was completely fleeced in both of those transactions. Now comes word that Steve Francis is suspended indefinitely for kicking a courtside photographer in Seattle on Friday night. I'm sure many of you remember Dennis Rodman doing the same thing in 1997. The Rodmonian was suspended 11 games for that altercation, so there is some precedent. Since the Magic only have 16 games left, and a brand new coach, losing their most talented player for at least 10 more games would be disastrous for their season.
Top 10
1. Miami (1)
2. Phoenix (2)
3. Detroit (5)
4. San Antonio (3)
5. Dallas (4)
6. Seattle (7)
7. Boston (9)
8. Memphis (10)
9. Houston (6)
10. Denver (-)
*Note: All statistical data does not include Sunday's games.
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- Set your phasers to ridiculous!! Last weeks Congressional steroid hearings were the biggest waste of time since Tom Cruise went on the Rosie O'Donnell show and pretended like some day they would be married. I could go on and on about this but I'm just not drunk enough to handle it. The entire idiotic adventure can be summed with one line. Congresswoman Diane Watson from Los Angeles said in her opening statement that "20% of all 8th graders surveyed admitted to using steroids". Huh? Guess how many people, even her own colleagues, challenged the validity of that outrageous claim? Zero, none. Right after she made that jackass statement every reporter in the United States should have called her on it but of course nobody said a word, except me of course. Every reporter was a total pus.....I can't write it but you know what I mean. Think about it, a legal tub of protein from GNC is about $60. How much do you think Balco was charging for illegal steroids? It had to be thousands of dollars or else it wouldn't be worth it. And how would an 8th grader get a hold of thousands of dollars of illegal steroids? We're supposed to assume that 20% of all the 8th graders in the country are on steroids by that moronic statistic, just how many kids is 20% of the 8th grade population? 3 million kids? Maybe 4 million? And we're supposed to believe that's how many 8th graders are using steroids?!?! Have any of you seen an extraordinary amount of 8th graders walking around that are built like brick sheisthouses with gigantic heads? The worst part of the hearings was that, if they had left out the baseball players, some good may have come out of it. But Congress wanted to make the whole thing a spectacle by forcing the ball players to show up. So we had José Canseco loving life because he could feel his book flying off the shelves as he was testifying, Curt Schilling who loves being in the spot light no matter what, Sammy Sosa who pretended not to be able to speak English and just acted like Pedro the mascot from South of the Border, South Carolina (Pedro seez....me no speak English!! Stop at South of de Border y compre fireworks mi amigo!). Sosa should have just completed the whole look and wore a poncho and a sombrero and rode in on a donkey. Raphael Palmiero was like Pacino in 'Scent of A Woman' ("I would take a flame thrower to this committee!!) and was Mark McGwire there to talk about the past? I'm not sure. The hearings were a complete and total JOKE!!!
- Lance Armstrong admitted last Tuesday that he is way behind on his Tour De France training right now. Hey Lance, don't feel bad, you should see how far behind I am on my Tour De France training. I get tired going downhill.
- A few quick things...will someone please tell CBS color analyst Bob Wenzel that the nickname of the Bucknell sports teams is the Bison (pronounced byesin) and not Bison (pronounced bye-SAHN). While we're at it, while it is true that when someone is naked you can see their butt will someone please tell all the rappers out there that the actual expression is BUCK naked and not BUTT naked. And lastly I was watching the Sylvester Stallone 'True Hollywood Story' and the announcer said 'Stallone made the forgettable film Victory' Whaaaaaa?!?! The movie Victory was phenomenal!! And Stallone was great in it.
- Just gotta mention that the Sylvester Stallone TV show 'The Contender' is great. Unlike 'The Next Great Champ' were the fighters fought like old ladies at Acme arguing over the last honey dew mellon these guys actually know how to box. Word on the street is that the ratings for 'The Contender' are lower then a regular season Ducks/Hurricanes game on ESPN so the show needs your help. Check it out...you won't be disappointed. Is there a better way to spend a Sunday then watching basketball all day, 'The Contender' at 8PM, and then 'Spring Break Shark Attack' at 9PM?
- Last Monday Fairway Miss ran in a $16,000 claiming race. A claiming race is a race in which a person can put in a 'claim' on your horse prior to the race and as soon as that race starts, that person now owns the horse. Claming races are a way to keep things in horse racing on the level. This was a step down in class for Fairway but the trainer was trying to get her a victory. Fairway was starting from the 7th position in a 7 horse race with David Mello in the irons. Before I forget....horses sweat out of their mouths, the sweat is this disgusting white foamy saliva. So Fairway comes to the paddock with this white stuff in her mouth and I jokingly say to Robert the groom "you should wipe that stuff out of her mouth" thinking that Robert would look at me like I'm nuts. Without skipping a beat Robert shoves his bare hand in Fairway's mouth and starts to scoop out the foam. I said "YO DUDE!! I was just kidding!!" "Oh...I thought you were serious", Robert says as he wipes his hands on his jeans. So the race starts and Fairway is in great shape, staying about 4 lengths off the pace for the majority of the race. When the horses hit the stretch David swung her to the outside and had clear sailing to the finish line. Fairway picked up a few positions but ended up 3rd, it was a photo for 2nd which she literally missed by inches. After the race I walked to the paddock to talk to David and tell him what a good job I thought he did. David said "I thought I had it, she just didn't give me that next gear like she usually does. Anyway, I heard she got claimed". "Huh?" With that the announcer comes on and says "Fairway Miss was claimed by trainer Ronald Dandy for Michael McMahon". I'm sad to see Fairway go but from a business standpoint it was the best thing that could've happened. Fairway has a bone chip in her knee which will require surgery down the line. I believe the bone chip was the reason Fairway wasn't able to kick into the next gear after getting clear sailing down the stretch. I'm told when the new owners came to get her from her stall the day after the race she couldn't even walk. As our horse Fairway Miss had 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, and 1 fifth, that means as our horse she cashed a check everytime she ran. So long Fairway!! So the search for a new horse begins.
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:01 AM
1 Comments:
I'm glad that stupid horse is gone
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