MLB Preview

MLB PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves - 94 wins
Lost: J.D. Drew, Jaret Wright
New: Raul Mondesi, Brian Jordan, Tim Hudson, Danny Kolb
My MMM co-writer Ed Wasser made a perfect statement. "Anybody that picks anybody besides the Braves to win the division is thinking too hard". Couldn't have said it better myself (well, maybe I would've used slightly better grammar). The Braves are not stronger than they were last year by no means. They gained two excellent starters in John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, but they also lost the games premier closer in John Smoltz. Danny Kolb is good (no where near the power pitcher Smoltz is), but saving games in Milwaukee is much easier than closing games for a division winner. That being said, the starters are excellent. The bullpen is a major problem, but that's a running theme around baseball.

Key: Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles getting on base at the top of the order. If this happens at a .380-.390 clip all year, which it can, this could be a 100 win team.

Back from dead: Brian Jordan & Raul Mondesi. The Braves have a way of plugging guys in and suddenly they're in their primes again.

Big Years: Larry and Andruw Jones. Andruw hasn't put together a full 162 game monster year, this could be it. 10 homers in the spring.

2. Philadelphia Phillies - 88 wins
Lost: Kevin Millwood, Eric Milton, Felix Rodriguez
New: Jon Lieber, Kenny Lofton
In baseball, it's very difficult to be mired in mediocrity. Teams are generally either good or bad for stretches of years. The Phillies have won 86 games each of the last two years. This year, doesn't look to be any different. The offense is ready to score a ton of runs again (3rd in the NL last year). They play in a small park but that in turn only kills their starters. This means more pressure on the bullpen. This year the Phils have their worst middle pen in years. Rheal Cormier is terrible without Joe Kerrigan historically. Tim Worrell isn't dominating anymore. Terry Adams is a journeyman. Ryan Madson can only pitch so much. Billy Wagner will be fine though. He'll save his 35-40 games (as he's in his FA year, trust me, he won't get hurt). Ryan Howard and Marlon Byrd not making the team is a joke. Just like last year (Utley) the Phils are sending down their hottest bats in spring to the minors. Byrd was having a great spring, not finding a spot for him especially with Lofton's questionable health is stupid.

Key # 1: Brett Myers and Corey Lidle. If one out of these two turns into a decent 4th starter, they'll be in good shape.

Key # 2: Jimmy Rollins & # 2 hitters OB%. Even though the Phillies were 3rd in runs scored, it was really 9 runs one night and 1 the next. If the top 2 hitters get on base consistently, they'll level that out a lot.

Key # 3: Health of Vicente Padilla. If Padilla gives the Phillies a solid 30 starts, that's 3 legit starters.

Key # 4: Mike Lieberthal. The Phillies really need someone to step up in the 6-8 slot. David Bell will hit his .270, but having Lieby return to the 2003 form is a must if the Phils are to contend.

3. Florida Marlins - 81 wins
Lost: Carl Pavano, Armando Benitez
New: Carlos Delgado, Al Leiter
Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett are definitely ready to take the next step and become all stars. But the bullpen on this team has the potential to be awful. Guillermo Mota is promoted to the closers role, he should be decent. But the rest of the pen has a lot to be desired. Antonio Alfonseca and Todd Jones are the set-up men. Phils fans, do you remember Todd Jones? The only lefty in the pen is Matt Perisho who is awful.

Key: Juan Pierre's health. Pierre has fought a calf injury all spring - if he's not 100% this team will struggle.

4. New York Mets - 78 wins
Lost: Al Leiter, Jason Phillips
New: Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Kaz Ishii, Doug Mientkiewicz
I said last week, you can't build a winner through free agency overnight, and that's why I don't love the Mets. Too much change, while it might make you better, won't make you into a contender necessarily.

The Worst: There are some bad bullpens in the NL East, but the Mets may be the worst. Braden Looper is a good closer, but Roberto Hernandez and Mike DeJean are their setup men. I can just see it now, Pedro goes 7 innings, one run, and in trots Roberto. (Again, Phils fans will know what I mean).

Young Studs: David Wright and Jose Reyes (looks healthy this year) are all stars in the making.

5. Washington Nationals - 68 wins
They got Jose Guillen in the offseason which was a good thing. Oddly enough, this may be the best bullpen in the NL East. But the staff is not deep, and they just don't have weapons on offense. A few nice players, but nothing to contend with.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs - 93 wins

A lot of experts are down on the Cubs offseason moves. While I wish they signed a legit closer, I still think they did OK. Getting rid of Sammy Sosa was a huge plus for this team. He was no longer a middle of the order type player for this team (.250 avg with 133 K's last year in 478 AB's). Nomar Garciaparra, Aramis Ramirez and Derreck Lee are perfect 3-5 hitters. Compliment that with Corey Patterson, Michael Barrett (underrated catcher), Todd Walker, Todd Hollandsworth, & Jerry Hairston...you have the makings of a decent lineup. I don't like Jeromy Burnitz but at the price they got him he's a bargain. The pitching? Health is the only concern. It's best in the majors when healthy, which they seem dinged up to start the year, but better at beginning than at the end.

Star: Aramis Ramirez. Now that Sammy's gone this is the guy the Cubs need to build around. He showed me a lot last year.

MVP? Nomar is going to be a monster this year, book it!

2. Houston Astros - 89 wins

Things I like: Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt, Brad Lidge. The young players have a ton of potential. The Astros also have payroll room, expect them to make a Carlos Beltran-like midseason move.

Who? Remember this name: CF Jason Lane. He's been the Astros stud prospect for years. Experts thought he'd break out last year, I'll say he does this year.

Third base is a stud position in the NL: Morgan Ensberg is developing into a quality 3B.

Things I don't like: 4th and 5th starters. Brandon Backe showed promise in October, so he may be decent. But the 5th starter spot will to Brandon Duckworth, which can't be good.

3. St. Louis Cardinals - 83 wins
New: Mark Mulder, David Eckstein, Mark Grudzielanek
Lost: Edgar Renteria, Mike Matheny
This is a great team that added Mark Mulder. How in the world can I not have them in first place. To be honest, it's just a feeling I have. The pitching for this team was awesome last year. Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan were incredible. I just don't see that happening again. Matt Morris is a shell of his old self, if he can return to forum, this team could be dominating again. But I think something with the chemistry of this team was changed with the losses of Edgar Renteria and Mike Matheny. I don't like that. I also don't think Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Larry Walker are going to make it through the whole year without breaking down (knees bothering Rolen in spring).

NL MVP: Will be Albert Pujols. He's been stopped by Barry Bonds the last few year, he won't be this year. He hasn't struck out all of spring training! WOW.

4. Cincinnati Reds - 81 wins
I like this team a lot. If I weren't as well respected and appreciated journalist, I'd have them as the Wild Card team. But I just can't do it with them playing in the band box. Eric Milton will give up a ton of homers again. But holy smokes are they going to score runs.

5. Milwaukee Brewers - 73 wins
The best: Pitcher in the NL might be Ben Sheets. Realistically, he's probably top 5.
The best: Farm system, by far. Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Jose Capellan are a year away though.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates - 65 wins
Jose Mesa is the closer. Yikes. Expect Mike Gonzalez to be the closer by years end.
Lefty Oliver Perez is very good, but after that this team is too average.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants - 94 wins
Lost: A.J. PierzinskiNew: Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel, Armando Benitez, Mike Matheny.
No Barry Bonds is no concern for this team. Jason Schmidt (best pitcher in the NL) leads a very formidable staff which added regular season and meaningless game closer extraordinaire Armando Benitez. Not having Bonds will help this team greatly in the long run, as players like Pedro Feliz will be able to shine. Ray Durham will also be able to get back to his playing style of a few years back. Moises Alou is a run producer on any team and once Bonds returns, this team will be World Series material.

Breakout season: Jerome Williams. He's only 23 and could emerge as an All-Star in that stadium. Watch out for this one-two punch for years to come. I saw Jerome Williams pitch during Ed Lowry's bachelor party a couple of years ago.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers - 87 wins
Lost: Adrian Beltre, Kaz Ishii, Shawn Green
New: J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Jason Phillips
While I like this team, I don't love it. Losing Adrian Beltre who was phenomenal for them, and clutch hitting Steve Finley had to be a blow. They replaced Beltre with Jose Valentine. Hee Seop Choi just never seems to develop, and Jayson Werth's injury has Ricky Ledee starting the year in LF.

Pitchers are always going to pitch well in Dodger Stadium, so pitching is usually not a concern. But Brad Penny's nerve problems have to be a concern and the fact that Scott Erickson opens the season as the 4th starter has to cause some concern.

Eye on: Eric Gagne's elbow problems. Dodgers are downplaying this but he's starting the season on the DL.

3. San Diego Padres - 81 wins
I really like this team but there's just something missing. Maybe it's the stud offensive player. Brian Giles is good, but nothing exceptional. Ryan Klesko I cannot stand since he stunk for my fantasy team last year. Sean Burroughs is a light hitting 3B. Phil Nevin gets hurt a lot. If it all comes together the Padres can win 90 games, but that's probably their ceiling. I still ask why in the world did this team trade Oliver Perez for Brian Giles. Completely idiotic.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks - 75 wins
Much improved. Possibly the most improved team. But no spark at the top of the order just yet. A bunch of 3 thru 8 hitters. Craig Counsell is leading off. Not good.

5. Colorado Rockies - 63 wins
The only reason to watch is to see if Garrett Atkins win Rookie of the Year (which, I think he will, especially since he's hitting 2nd in front of Todd Helton).

AL Playoffs

The four playoff teams from last weeks AL were the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels and Twins. I think the ALCS will be the LA Angels of Anaheim vs. NYY, with the Yanks taking the AL Pennant.

NL Playoffs

Altlanta, Chicago and SF will be joined by the Astros as the Wild Card. The Astros will fight off the Phils, Cards, and Dodgers. Phils fans will get a season that comes down to the final weekend of the year but in the end, thier lack of pitching in a hitters park will kill them.

ALCS - Yankees vs. LA Angels of Anaheim
NLCS - SF Giants vs. Cubs

World Series - NY Yankees vs. SF Giants. In what should be one of the most highly watched World Series in years, the Yankees aka the Evil Empire will buy themselves their 'first' World Series in 5 years.

AL East

New York Yankees - 106 wins
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Kevin Brown. Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright are their scrub pitchers! The Yanks bullpen won't be their strong suit as in past years as Mariano Rivera isn't getting any younger (35) and Tom Gordon was awful last October. If not for a strong division this team could break the Mariners win record of 116 games. I expect A-Rod to possibly have his best season since 2000, which is saying alot since he won MVP in 2003.

Boston Red Sox - 96 wins
I generally think that after winning the World Series there is a major hangover effect. But the rest of this division is about a year away from competing seriously so Boston should rack of plenty of wins. The addition of Matt Clement will be good, and by years end Wade Miller will be the free agent pick up of the year.

Baltimore Orioles - 77 wins
Sammy Sosa's presence means nothing. He's overrated at this point in his career. He'll hit a lot of home runs in 8-3 games as he's done a lot the last few years. This team has a lot of pitching but they're all young. Still a few years away but great potential.

Toronto Blue Jays - 72 wins
Nothing to see here but to watch 26 year old Vernon Wells develop into an All-Star and a player to target in trades in two years as he's a free agent in three.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 64 wins
Nothing to see here but Lou Pinella freaking out and season ticket holder Dick Vitale screaming and yelling. Well, they have super stud prospects Scott Kazmir and B.J. Upton but they are both still years away.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins - 92 wins
Nobody is ready to dethrone the 3 time defending NL Central champs. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are youngsters who add offense to an otherwise pitching dominated team. Johan Santana will probably win Cy Young again.

Cleveland Indians - 86 wins
Probably a little higher win total than most expect, but I like this young group. Travis Hafner is an All-Star in the making and Juan Gonzalez will probably have a resurgence year in Cleveland.

Detroit Tigers - 81 wins
Now I'm just being crazy. But the Tigers have built an incredibly half decent team. Magglio Ordonez has a lot to prove and I think he will. This is a sleeper team this year.

Chicago White Sox - 73 wins
Mark Buerhrle is one of my favorite pitchers but after that there is little here. They traded away one of their better players (Carlos Lee) for a light hitting centerfielder (Scott Posednik). They also lost Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas is 72 years old and can't even make it to court for steroid hearings.

Kansas City Royals - 65 wins
Jose Lima is their ace. (That wasn't a misprint).

AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 94 wins
The big news here is the new team name. What you read was accurate, "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim take on the...". What is wrong with these people? Anyway, Dallas McPherson is a Rookie of the Year candidate, Orlando Cabrera and Steve Finley give them some stability and the A's have really weakened their team.

Oakland A's - 91 wins
While this team has lost alot (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder), I still think Billy Beane knows players. Faith in him alone leads me to believe they'll be right in the thick of the AL West race. I also like Barry Zito, Rich Harden and Dan Haren as probably the best staff in the division.

Texas Rangers - 84 wins
Last years charge by the Rangers was improbable. They really haven't improved all that much and still have a problem with pitching. Chan Ho Park is trying to get back to his 2001 form.

Seattle Mariners - 81 wins
Here's one of my sports mantras: "You can't go from being a bad team to a great team just by signing a couple of big name free agents" (unless they're top line pitchers) in baseball. The Mariners made big splash by signing Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre in the offseason. Ichiro could score 250 runs this year with those guys behind him. This is a very competitive division, Seattle is still a year away.