Monday Morning Mehta 6/5/06
Edition # 165
June 5, 2006
Next MMM will be June 19, 2006.
The Phillies come off of a relatively uneventful 4-3 week, taking 2 out of 3 at home versus the Nationals, while splitting a 4 game set vs. the Dodgers. Up this week is three vs. the red hot Diamondbacks and 4 at Washington.
- Not much more to say besides the Phillies starters need some serious help. Clearly most of the blame for the Phillies pitching woes has to go to Jon Lieber. A 17 game winner last year, Lieber was horrible before getting hurt. Madson, Brito, Floyd, Lidle have all been bad. But Lieber makes $8 mill a year and we expect more. He's apparently a few weeks away from returning so when he gets back he better have his sh&t together.
- Chase Utley with a huge week led the Phillies offense. With the injury to Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard could be looking at starting this years All-Star game an Utley could join him.
- Arthur Rhodes is just scary. Scary looking, scary when gets into the games, you name it.
- I'm not sure what more Aaron Fultz needs to do to get some more meaningful work. I can't believe I have faith in him and Geoff Geary. (Did I just say that?)
- Phils face Brandon Webb tonight. This could be trouble.
- Cole Hamels will return to the mound tomorrow night which means he'll make his home debut vs. the Devil Rays two weekends from now. Well, if he can stay healthy that is.
Around the League
- I pointed out the Tigers have some big tests in the next 2 weeks and they've started out with a D at best by going 2-5. They lost 3 out of 4 to the Yankees and 2 out of 3 to the Red Sox. It was ugly too. The pitching which had been so good so far was roughed up pretty badly. Sorry Detroit
Philly Phaf - not a good sign for later in the year.
- Luckily for the Tigers, the White Sox have also been struggling mightily the last few weeks.
- The Toronto Blue Jays and the LA Angels are two teams to watch out for in the next few weeks. They're getting hot and appear to be ready to make a move towards the top of their divisons.
- I generally don't care about tennis these days, but if Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer face off in the French Open finals it will definitely be something sports fans should watch.
NBA - Derreck Sura
Just a few quick hitters before my Finals preview...
- On Saturday the Sacramento Kings hired Eric Musselman as their new head coach. This is a great move by Kings' President Geoff Petrie in my opinion. E Muss was by far the best unemployed coach on the market (that title goes to Jim O'Brien now). The Maloof brothers have repeatedly said that they wanted a defensive oriented head man, and that's what they got. This hire is not without risks though.
Musselman was fired by Golden State after his hard nosed style clashed with management and players alike. Eric went 38-44 (2nd in Coach of the Year) and 37-45 (after losing both Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison) while in charge of the Warriors. Those were GS's two best seasons since they last made the playoffs in 1994, and I'm pretty sure E Muss has learned from his past mistakes at this point.
Obviously the big question is how will Musselman relate to Ron Artest? Ron-Ron should love his defense first approach, and if E Muss knows what's good for the team, he will continue to run the offense through Artest. That should be enough to keep Ronnie happy, and if Artest is down with the program, the rest of the team should follow suit. The thing is you neva eva know with Ron-Ron, so Musselman will need handle that situation delicately at first and only lay into Artest after they have some type of established relationship.
- Last Tuesday the Portland Trail Blazers mercifully did not renew the contract of GM John Nash. Thank gawd and halleluiah! I said from that shocking day when Nash was first hired that he would fail miserably, so I'm glad that owner Paul Allen finally made a good decision for once. I'm not sure what Allen saw in Nash's previous stops in New Jersey, Philadelphia and Washington that led him to believe he was the man for job, but that's another column all together.
This is only the first step in what will be a very long and steep staircase to fix the Blazers. Nash was replaced by team President Steve Patterson on an interim basis. Meaning the guy that was hired with Nash and formed the Portland "brain trust" for the past three years is now in charge. Did I just say the Paul Allen finally made a good move? Scratch that. Patterson also needed to be jettisoned if the franchise was really going to move forward with a clean slate. Not like I'm big fan of his or anything, but I would have handed the reigns to Director of Player Personnel Kevin Pritchard. It's not like Kevin can do any worse then the Nash/Patterson duo did. Give the kid a shot Paul!
The Blazers have virtually no chance at Kiki Vandeweghe, or any other big name candidate with any kind of resume, until Allen decides what he's going to do with the franchise. Sell, declare bankruptcy or try and actually fix the mess he got himself into. An organization that is constantly moving back and forth between chaos and limbo is not an attractive employment destination for anybody. I'm just happy that they didn't get the number one pick in the draft. I have no doubt that whoever was in charge would have screwed that up royally. Here's to hoping that the Terry Porter/Jeld-Wen Inc. led group is able to buy the team and arena and get the fans and community back behind the franchise.
- You all remember former Toronto GM Rob Babcock, right? He was the guy that drafted Rafael Araujo ahead of Andre Iguodala (among others) and traded Vince Carter for Eric and Aaron Williams, Alonzo Mourning and two first round picks. Well, before the Raptors hired Babcock he was Kevin McHale's right hand man with the Timberwolves. The latest word out of Minnesota now is that the Wolves are close to re-hiring Babcock. That has to be a comforting thought for Kevin Garnett when his head hits the pillow at night. McHale has already pretty much wasted KG's prime (the Joe Smith debacle playing a major role there), and now he's bringing Robbie the B back to help him right the ship? I'll be shocked if Garnett hasn't asked to be traded by the start of the 2007-08 season.
- Another .500 round has me sitting at 11-3 for the post season on the prediction front. I could be 13-1, but I'll begrudgingly be happy with 11-3. As always, I must toot my own horn about my October prognostications. I ended up with two out of the four teams in the Conference Finals (Miami & Phoenix). More importantly though, I'm back on track with two years in a row (five out six years too) of having at least one of my pre-season picks for the NBA Finals make it there.
It's only fitting that we end one of the best playoffs ever with a match up of two first time finalists. This will be the first time since 1970-71 when Milwaukee swept Baltimore that both franchises are making their Finals debut. It's also very appropriate that we get to see the two best players in the post season (Dirk Nowitzki & Dwyane Wade) face off for all the marbles. I'm breaking from my normal style and going a little more in depth for my Finals preview. I hope you enjoy.
STARTERS
Jason Terry v Jason Williams - J Will had his best game of the post season in closing out Detroit (made his first ten shots and finished 10-12), but don't look for that to continue against Terry. JT is a vastly superior defender because of his quickness and length advantage. If Terry can find his jumper again, he will be able to abuse Williams on the offensive end as well. Advantage = Dallas.
Adrian Griffin v Dwyane Wade - I know Griffin hasn't been starting since mid way through the San Antonio series, but expect to see him back in the starting lineup to try and defend Wade. As long Dwyane shakes his flu bug by Thursday, Adrian can only hope for the best. Advantage =
Miami.
Josh Howard v Antoine Walker - Toine has been playing some pretty good ball in the playoffs thus far. He has filled the role of third option very nicely, but now he's going up against one of the most underrated second options in the NBA. There's no way Walker can guard Howard anywhere on the floor. Conversely, Josh will be able to handle Toine anywhere except on the low block, but don't look for the Heat to change what they have been doing to exploit that. Advantage = Dallas.
Dirk Nowitzki v Udonis Haslem - Umm, can you say mismatch? Maybe Udonis gives Dirk some trouble when he tries to post up at the elbow, but I'm reaching there. Nowitzki's main job against Haslem is to keep him off the offensive glass, but other then that, Dirk will be able to roam free on defense and do as he pleases on offense. Advantage = Dallas.
DeSagana Diop v Shaquille O'Neal - Diop has been a find/pleasant surprise all season long including the playoffs. His job is to bother Shaq just enough that hopefully the Diesel gets frustrated. I doubt that will happen, but it would help Mavericks if DeSagana could last until mid-way through the first quarter before picking up his second foul. Advantage = Miami.
BENCH
Devin Harris & Darrell Armstrong v Gary Payton - Harris was key for the Mavs against the Spurs, but has fallen off since game one of the Phoenix series. Devin lacks big game experience, but his ability to beat people off the dribble and create with his quickness will give the Heat problems. GP's best days are long behind him, but he still normally plays all the crunch time minutes for the Heat. However, Payton is going to have his hands full with either Harris or Terry's speed. Armstrong is a nice insurance policy/energy guy for the Mavs. Advantage = Dallas.
Jerry Stackhouse & Marquis Daniels v James Posey, Shandon Anderson & Derek Anderson - The Anderson boys are playing out the string at this point of their career's, and I don't expect to see them in anything other then spot duty in this series. Posey's play will be key for the Heat. They are really going to need his defense to slow down the Mavs' plethora of athletic swing players. Stack will do what he does, which is provide versatile instant offense. If Daniels gets some minutes he will be an x-factor for the Mavs. He can play D on Wade, break his man down off the dribble and flourishes in transition. Sometimes it's just tough to find time for him though. Advantage = Dallas.
Keith Van Horn, Erick Dampier & D.J. Mbenga v Alonzo Mourning, Michael Doleac & Wayne Simien - Damp and Mbenga (when he is available in game five) are going to need to use all their fouls attempting to slow down Shaq. Again, they can't do it, but I think they (along with Diop) can frustrate O'Neal over the course of the series. KVH's jumper and rebounding have been MIA since his return, so I don't really see what he brings to the table right now. Although, it would be funny to see him try and guard Shaq if the Mavs go small. The chances of seeing Simien on the court are remote, but Doleac is a nice insurance policy who always plays hard and does his job. Zo has not really been a factor in the playoffs thus far. He's productive when he's out there, but he's just not playing enough (10.6 mpg) to be effective. Advantage = Dallas.
COACHING
Avery Johnson v Pat Riley - This is a case of the old versus the new here. Riley's off season moves have proved to be great and he's still a master motivator with tons of championship experience, but as far as adjustments and shrewd coaching moves go, he's been a little lacking as I see it. Yes his team is in the Finals, but I'm not sure it's been his coaching acumen that's got them there. On the other hand, Avery has made several key adjustments in each of the last two series', and is equally the motivator that Riles is. Part of Johnson's success has been that he has so many options, as the Mavs are the deepest team in the league. I see that playing a major factor in the Finals as well. Advantage = Dallas.
KEY DEFENSIVE ASSIGNMENTS
Dirk Nowitzki v Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker & James Posey - When I look at those three names, Posey jumps out as the best option. Haslem and Walker are just too slow to deal with Dirk on the perimeter, and I don't think they have the length to bother his mid-range post up game either. I will say that Udonis will at least give a much better effort then Toine though. JP has the quickness and tenacity, but lacks the required height to really do a good job on Nowitzki.
This is a tough match up for the Heat.
Dwyane Wade v Adrian Griffin, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels & Jason Terry
- With the exception of maybe Terry, none of those guys are quick enough to stay in front of Wade. Griffin has the mindset and toughness of a defensive stopper and Howard and Daniels have the length to possibly bother him. The main thing is the Mavs have multiple bodies to throw at Dwyane. Thus allowing them to constantly change their looks up. Wade has been great so far, but he faces his toughest challenge of the post season here.
Josh Howard v Antoine Walker, James Posey, Dwyane Wade & Gary Payton - Again, Posey is the best option to check my boy Josh. Problem is, he'll probably have to guard Dirk. Believe it or not, I think Wade is Miami's next best option. Dwyane has the quickness and plays with the requisite energy to stay with Howard. He might be a little small if Josh takes him down low, and that could lead to foul trouble. Walker just does not focus on defense enough to have any prayer. GP is probably a last resort, and I don't see that going well for the Heat either.
Shaquille O'Neal v DeSagana Diop, Erick Dampier & D.J. Mbenga - I've pretty much covered this already, but I have to say that Mbenga's suspension is a blow for the Mavs. He's not great, and may not even be in the league next year, but it always helps to have another six fouls when dealing with O'Neal. Shaq is going to have maintain his composure and take his time when he gets the ball in the post. Most importantly though, the Big Fella is going to have make his free throws. Trust me when I tell you that those two or three guys will use every foul in every game they play.
PREDICTION
Can you tell I'm excited about this series yet? I'm really looking forward to it and expect it to deliver on many levels. Miami has the advantage experience wise with Riley at the helm and guys like Shaq, Zo and GP who have all gone deep into the playoffs on multiple occasions. I give Dallas the upper hand intangible wise though because of their depth. In the end, I think that's the deciding factor that gives Mark Cuban his first title. That's not to say the Finals won't be competitive, because the Heat do have a legitimate chance to win it all. But when you consider the level of competition Dallas has already gone against just to get here, they are used to playing at a higher level then Miami is right now. Mavs in 7.
- I'll be on the Black Crowes - Robert Randolph & the Family Band - Drive-By Truckers tour next week, so you won't read any analysis from me again until after game five. In the meantime, I hope to run a World Cup preview for the USA in next week's edition. I know you all can't wait for that.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- Finally, the Stanley Cup Finals have arrived!! And guess what?? I'm taking the next week off because I'll be visiting that hockey hotbed of Nassau, Bahamas. I already called the resort to make sure they have a satellite and they do and they will indeed be showing the games. And any minute now my boss should be emerging with the company's phone bill screaming "who called the Bahamas!?!?!" So I shall return on Monday, June 19th.
- The 2005 - 2006 Stanley Cup will be fought over by the Carolina Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers, but the real story is after I predicted the Canes would win Game 6, the Sabres won which is making this playoff year for me the most incredible year in the history of mushes. My mush-dom is reaching the level of a super power. I'm starting to believe that my predictions can alter the future. I haven't gotten one prediction correct, not one, not even the ones I stole from hockey pundits on "Hockey Night in Canada" and "The Hockey News". My year of predictions with be studied by mushes the world over as "the perfect season".
- As far as the series is concerned, I like the Canes but I guess if I was smart I'd pick Edmonton since that last sentence pretty much guaranteed their victory. Oiler coach Craig MacTavish is doing an amazing job getting people to buy into his system and if you don't believe me just look at the last game against the Ducks and watch Sergei Samsonov, who's grit was in constant question in Beantown, going down and blocking shots. But even with that Olier goalie Dwayne Roloson has faced a league high 595 shots. Roloson has been unreal and if it wasn't for his bang up save percentage (.931) the only other number the Oilers would hearing is "FORE!!"
- Chris Pronger has been a staggering presence in the playoffs. Staggering. Offensively, blocking shots, physically dominating, drawing big penalties...he's been a one man wrecking crew.
- As far as the Canes are concerned it begins and ends with Rod Brind'Amour. He scored the series winner against the Sabres, he has the most playoff power play goals in the league, he is a terrific penalty killer, and as I said before....he may be the only player in the entire NHL who is on the ice at every critical juncture of every game regardless of the situation. The more I think about him and his game and how he was one of the few players that showed up in the early 90's when the Flyers stunk and how he was the only Flyer that played like he gave a damn in the 1997 Finals against the Wings the more I believe he's a first ballot Hall of Famer.
- Canes goalie Cam Ward got a desperation start against the Habs when they were down 2 - 0 and he hasn't looked back since. He's been solid, winning a few games by himself and not losing any which is what you need your goalie to do in the playoffs.
- As far as the match up is concerned there is one main point. Oh, before I forget, the Oliers took the team to practice in New York so they could get used to the warm weather which begs the question "how miserable would it be to live in Edmonton where it's still freezing cold in the first week of June?" Anyway, the series comes down to one word...penalties. You know they're going to be called, it's a matter of how your team handles them which will determine the winner of the series. The Canes have the best power play percentage in the playoffs so if the Oilers have a chance they can not take stupid penalties because I don't care how solid Pronger, Peca, and Roloson have been....you take enough penalties and eventually it'll kill you. So let's see how it pans out. Nobody beside guys that really love hockey and Canadians will be watching which is a shame for the league. I'll review the series the next time you hear from me.
June 5, 2006
Next MMM will be June 19, 2006.
The Phillies come off of a relatively uneventful 4-3 week, taking 2 out of 3 at home versus the Nationals, while splitting a 4 game set vs. the Dodgers. Up this week is three vs. the red hot Diamondbacks and 4 at Washington.
- Not much more to say besides the Phillies starters need some serious help. Clearly most of the blame for the Phillies pitching woes has to go to Jon Lieber. A 17 game winner last year, Lieber was horrible before getting hurt. Madson, Brito, Floyd, Lidle have all been bad. But Lieber makes $8 mill a year and we expect more. He's apparently a few weeks away from returning so when he gets back he better have his sh&t together.
- Chase Utley with a huge week led the Phillies offense. With the injury to Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard could be looking at starting this years All-Star game an Utley could join him.
- Arthur Rhodes is just scary. Scary looking, scary when gets into the games, you name it.
- I'm not sure what more Aaron Fultz needs to do to get some more meaningful work. I can't believe I have faith in him and Geoff Geary. (Did I just say that?)
- Phils face Brandon Webb tonight. This could be trouble.
- Cole Hamels will return to the mound tomorrow night which means he'll make his home debut vs. the Devil Rays two weekends from now. Well, if he can stay healthy that is.
Around the League
- I pointed out the Tigers have some big tests in the next 2 weeks and they've started out with a D at best by going 2-5. They lost 3 out of 4 to the Yankees and 2 out of 3 to the Red Sox. It was ugly too. The pitching which had been so good so far was roughed up pretty badly. Sorry Detroit
Philly Phaf - not a good sign for later in the year.
- Luckily for the Tigers, the White Sox have also been struggling mightily the last few weeks.
- The Toronto Blue Jays and the LA Angels are two teams to watch out for in the next few weeks. They're getting hot and appear to be ready to make a move towards the top of their divisons.
- I generally don't care about tennis these days, but if Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer face off in the French Open finals it will definitely be something sports fans should watch.
NBA - Derreck Sura
Just a few quick hitters before my Finals preview...
- On Saturday the Sacramento Kings hired Eric Musselman as their new head coach. This is a great move by Kings' President Geoff Petrie in my opinion. E Muss was by far the best unemployed coach on the market (that title goes to Jim O'Brien now). The Maloof brothers have repeatedly said that they wanted a defensive oriented head man, and that's what they got. This hire is not without risks though.
Musselman was fired by Golden State after his hard nosed style clashed with management and players alike. Eric went 38-44 (2nd in Coach of the Year) and 37-45 (after losing both Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison) while in charge of the Warriors. Those were GS's two best seasons since they last made the playoffs in 1994, and I'm pretty sure E Muss has learned from his past mistakes at this point.
Obviously the big question is how will Musselman relate to Ron Artest? Ron-Ron should love his defense first approach, and if E Muss knows what's good for the team, he will continue to run the offense through Artest. That should be enough to keep Ronnie happy, and if Artest is down with the program, the rest of the team should follow suit. The thing is you neva eva know with Ron-Ron, so Musselman will need handle that situation delicately at first and only lay into Artest after they have some type of established relationship.
- Last Tuesday the Portland Trail Blazers mercifully did not renew the contract of GM John Nash. Thank gawd and halleluiah! I said from that shocking day when Nash was first hired that he would fail miserably, so I'm glad that owner Paul Allen finally made a good decision for once. I'm not sure what Allen saw in Nash's previous stops in New Jersey, Philadelphia and Washington that led him to believe he was the man for job, but that's another column all together.
This is only the first step in what will be a very long and steep staircase to fix the Blazers. Nash was replaced by team President Steve Patterson on an interim basis. Meaning the guy that was hired with Nash and formed the Portland "brain trust" for the past three years is now in charge. Did I just say the Paul Allen finally made a good move? Scratch that. Patterson also needed to be jettisoned if the franchise was really going to move forward with a clean slate. Not like I'm big fan of his or anything, but I would have handed the reigns to Director of Player Personnel Kevin Pritchard. It's not like Kevin can do any worse then the Nash/Patterson duo did. Give the kid a shot Paul!
The Blazers have virtually no chance at Kiki Vandeweghe, or any other big name candidate with any kind of resume, until Allen decides what he's going to do with the franchise. Sell, declare bankruptcy or try and actually fix the mess he got himself into. An organization that is constantly moving back and forth between chaos and limbo is not an attractive employment destination for anybody. I'm just happy that they didn't get the number one pick in the draft. I have no doubt that whoever was in charge would have screwed that up royally. Here's to hoping that the Terry Porter/Jeld-Wen Inc. led group is able to buy the team and arena and get the fans and community back behind the franchise.
- You all remember former Toronto GM Rob Babcock, right? He was the guy that drafted Rafael Araujo ahead of Andre Iguodala (among others) and traded Vince Carter for Eric and Aaron Williams, Alonzo Mourning and two first round picks. Well, before the Raptors hired Babcock he was Kevin McHale's right hand man with the Timberwolves. The latest word out of Minnesota now is that the Wolves are close to re-hiring Babcock. That has to be a comforting thought for Kevin Garnett when his head hits the pillow at night. McHale has already pretty much wasted KG's prime (the Joe Smith debacle playing a major role there), and now he's bringing Robbie the B back to help him right the ship? I'll be shocked if Garnett hasn't asked to be traded by the start of the 2007-08 season.
- Another .500 round has me sitting at 11-3 for the post season on the prediction front. I could be 13-1, but I'll begrudgingly be happy with 11-3. As always, I must toot my own horn about my October prognostications. I ended up with two out of the four teams in the Conference Finals (Miami & Phoenix). More importantly though, I'm back on track with two years in a row (five out six years too) of having at least one of my pre-season picks for the NBA Finals make it there.
It's only fitting that we end one of the best playoffs ever with a match up of two first time finalists. This will be the first time since 1970-71 when Milwaukee swept Baltimore that both franchises are making their Finals debut. It's also very appropriate that we get to see the two best players in the post season (Dirk Nowitzki & Dwyane Wade) face off for all the marbles. I'm breaking from my normal style and going a little more in depth for my Finals preview. I hope you enjoy.
STARTERS
Jason Terry v Jason Williams - J Will had his best game of the post season in closing out Detroit (made his first ten shots and finished 10-12), but don't look for that to continue against Terry. JT is a vastly superior defender because of his quickness and length advantage. If Terry can find his jumper again, he will be able to abuse Williams on the offensive end as well. Advantage = Dallas.
Adrian Griffin v Dwyane Wade - I know Griffin hasn't been starting since mid way through the San Antonio series, but expect to see him back in the starting lineup to try and defend Wade. As long Dwyane shakes his flu bug by Thursday, Adrian can only hope for the best. Advantage =
Miami.
Josh Howard v Antoine Walker - Toine has been playing some pretty good ball in the playoffs thus far. He has filled the role of third option very nicely, but now he's going up against one of the most underrated second options in the NBA. There's no way Walker can guard Howard anywhere on the floor. Conversely, Josh will be able to handle Toine anywhere except on the low block, but don't look for the Heat to change what they have been doing to exploit that. Advantage = Dallas.
Dirk Nowitzki v Udonis Haslem - Umm, can you say mismatch? Maybe Udonis gives Dirk some trouble when he tries to post up at the elbow, but I'm reaching there. Nowitzki's main job against Haslem is to keep him off the offensive glass, but other then that, Dirk will be able to roam free on defense and do as he pleases on offense. Advantage = Dallas.
DeSagana Diop v Shaquille O'Neal - Diop has been a find/pleasant surprise all season long including the playoffs. His job is to bother Shaq just enough that hopefully the Diesel gets frustrated. I doubt that will happen, but it would help Mavericks if DeSagana could last until mid-way through the first quarter before picking up his second foul. Advantage = Miami.
BENCH
Devin Harris & Darrell Armstrong v Gary Payton - Harris was key for the Mavs against the Spurs, but has fallen off since game one of the Phoenix series. Devin lacks big game experience, but his ability to beat people off the dribble and create with his quickness will give the Heat problems. GP's best days are long behind him, but he still normally plays all the crunch time minutes for the Heat. However, Payton is going to have his hands full with either Harris or Terry's speed. Armstrong is a nice insurance policy/energy guy for the Mavs. Advantage = Dallas.
Jerry Stackhouse & Marquis Daniels v James Posey, Shandon Anderson & Derek Anderson - The Anderson boys are playing out the string at this point of their career's, and I don't expect to see them in anything other then spot duty in this series. Posey's play will be key for the Heat. They are really going to need his defense to slow down the Mavs' plethora of athletic swing players. Stack will do what he does, which is provide versatile instant offense. If Daniels gets some minutes he will be an x-factor for the Mavs. He can play D on Wade, break his man down off the dribble and flourishes in transition. Sometimes it's just tough to find time for him though. Advantage = Dallas.
Keith Van Horn, Erick Dampier & D.J. Mbenga v Alonzo Mourning, Michael Doleac & Wayne Simien - Damp and Mbenga (when he is available in game five) are going to need to use all their fouls attempting to slow down Shaq. Again, they can't do it, but I think they (along with Diop) can frustrate O'Neal over the course of the series. KVH's jumper and rebounding have been MIA since his return, so I don't really see what he brings to the table right now. Although, it would be funny to see him try and guard Shaq if the Mavs go small. The chances of seeing Simien on the court are remote, but Doleac is a nice insurance policy who always plays hard and does his job. Zo has not really been a factor in the playoffs thus far. He's productive when he's out there, but he's just not playing enough (10.6 mpg) to be effective. Advantage = Dallas.
COACHING
Avery Johnson v Pat Riley - This is a case of the old versus the new here. Riley's off season moves have proved to be great and he's still a master motivator with tons of championship experience, but as far as adjustments and shrewd coaching moves go, he's been a little lacking as I see it. Yes his team is in the Finals, but I'm not sure it's been his coaching acumen that's got them there. On the other hand, Avery has made several key adjustments in each of the last two series', and is equally the motivator that Riles is. Part of Johnson's success has been that he has so many options, as the Mavs are the deepest team in the league. I see that playing a major factor in the Finals as well. Advantage = Dallas.
KEY DEFENSIVE ASSIGNMENTS
Dirk Nowitzki v Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker & James Posey - When I look at those three names, Posey jumps out as the best option. Haslem and Walker are just too slow to deal with Dirk on the perimeter, and I don't think they have the length to bother his mid-range post up game either. I will say that Udonis will at least give a much better effort then Toine though. JP has the quickness and tenacity, but lacks the required height to really do a good job on Nowitzki.
This is a tough match up for the Heat.
Dwyane Wade v Adrian Griffin, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels & Jason Terry
- With the exception of maybe Terry, none of those guys are quick enough to stay in front of Wade. Griffin has the mindset and toughness of a defensive stopper and Howard and Daniels have the length to possibly bother him. The main thing is the Mavs have multiple bodies to throw at Dwyane. Thus allowing them to constantly change their looks up. Wade has been great so far, but he faces his toughest challenge of the post season here.
Josh Howard v Antoine Walker, James Posey, Dwyane Wade & Gary Payton - Again, Posey is the best option to check my boy Josh. Problem is, he'll probably have to guard Dirk. Believe it or not, I think Wade is Miami's next best option. Dwyane has the quickness and plays with the requisite energy to stay with Howard. He might be a little small if Josh takes him down low, and that could lead to foul trouble. Walker just does not focus on defense enough to have any prayer. GP is probably a last resort, and I don't see that going well for the Heat either.
Shaquille O'Neal v DeSagana Diop, Erick Dampier & D.J. Mbenga - I've pretty much covered this already, but I have to say that Mbenga's suspension is a blow for the Mavs. He's not great, and may not even be in the league next year, but it always helps to have another six fouls when dealing with O'Neal. Shaq is going to have maintain his composure and take his time when he gets the ball in the post. Most importantly though, the Big Fella is going to have make his free throws. Trust me when I tell you that those two or three guys will use every foul in every game they play.
PREDICTION
Can you tell I'm excited about this series yet? I'm really looking forward to it and expect it to deliver on many levels. Miami has the advantage experience wise with Riley at the helm and guys like Shaq, Zo and GP who have all gone deep into the playoffs on multiple occasions. I give Dallas the upper hand intangible wise though because of their depth. In the end, I think that's the deciding factor that gives Mark Cuban his first title. That's not to say the Finals won't be competitive, because the Heat do have a legitimate chance to win it all. But when you consider the level of competition Dallas has already gone against just to get here, they are used to playing at a higher level then Miami is right now. Mavs in 7.
- I'll be on the Black Crowes - Robert Randolph & the Family Band - Drive-By Truckers tour next week, so you won't read any analysis from me again until after game five. In the meantime, I hope to run a World Cup preview for the USA in next week's edition. I know you all can't wait for that.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- Finally, the Stanley Cup Finals have arrived!! And guess what?? I'm taking the next week off because I'll be visiting that hockey hotbed of Nassau, Bahamas. I already called the resort to make sure they have a satellite and they do and they will indeed be showing the games. And any minute now my boss should be emerging with the company's phone bill screaming "who called the Bahamas!?!?!" So I shall return on Monday, June 19th.
- The 2005 - 2006 Stanley Cup will be fought over by the Carolina Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers, but the real story is after I predicted the Canes would win Game 6, the Sabres won which is making this playoff year for me the most incredible year in the history of mushes. My mush-dom is reaching the level of a super power. I'm starting to believe that my predictions can alter the future. I haven't gotten one prediction correct, not one, not even the ones I stole from hockey pundits on "Hockey Night in Canada" and "The Hockey News". My year of predictions with be studied by mushes the world over as "the perfect season".
- As far as the series is concerned, I like the Canes but I guess if I was smart I'd pick Edmonton since that last sentence pretty much guaranteed their victory. Oiler coach Craig MacTavish is doing an amazing job getting people to buy into his system and if you don't believe me just look at the last game against the Ducks and watch Sergei Samsonov, who's grit was in constant question in Beantown, going down and blocking shots. But even with that Olier goalie Dwayne Roloson has faced a league high 595 shots. Roloson has been unreal and if it wasn't for his bang up save percentage (.931) the only other number the Oilers would hearing is "FORE!!"
- Chris Pronger has been a staggering presence in the playoffs. Staggering. Offensively, blocking shots, physically dominating, drawing big penalties...he's been a one man wrecking crew.
- As far as the Canes are concerned it begins and ends with Rod Brind'Amour. He scored the series winner against the Sabres, he has the most playoff power play goals in the league, he is a terrific penalty killer, and as I said before....he may be the only player in the entire NHL who is on the ice at every critical juncture of every game regardless of the situation. The more I think about him and his game and how he was one of the few players that showed up in the early 90's when the Flyers stunk and how he was the only Flyer that played like he gave a damn in the 1997 Finals against the Wings the more I believe he's a first ballot Hall of Famer.
- Canes goalie Cam Ward got a desperation start against the Habs when they were down 2 - 0 and he hasn't looked back since. He's been solid, winning a few games by himself and not losing any which is what you need your goalie to do in the playoffs.
- As far as the match up is concerned there is one main point. Oh, before I forget, the Oliers took the team to practice in New York so they could get used to the warm weather which begs the question "how miserable would it be to live in Edmonton where it's still freezing cold in the first week of June?" Anyway, the series comes down to one word...penalties. You know they're going to be called, it's a matter of how your team handles them which will determine the winner of the series. The Canes have the best power play percentage in the playoffs so if the Oilers have a chance they can not take stupid penalties because I don't care how solid Pronger, Peca, and Roloson have been....you take enough penalties and eventually it'll kill you. So let's see how it pans out. Nobody beside guys that really love hockey and Canadians will be watching which is a shame for the league. I'll review the series the next time you hear from me.
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:17 AM
1 Comments:
My sleeper pick for the US Open is Luke Donald.
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