Monday, January 30, 2006

Monday Morning Mehta 1/30/06

Edition # 150
January 30, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

Note: Next's week's MMM will be the last MMM until March 6th. I'll be in India covering Cricket for the Gujarat Samachar.

The 2nd Annual Official Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Guide Sponsored by America On-Line.

Just to refresh everyone on how this works, we'll do offense this week and defense next week.

Quarterback
2005 Grade: D

Donovan McNabb played poorly this year, I don't think there should be any discussion about that. The reason for his poor play was likely the injury against Atlanta in the first game of the year. Nonetheless, McNabb needs to and will play better. But QB's around the league get hurt plenty. A good backup is hard to find, but almost a necessity if you want to cover all the bases (New England & Indy have no real back up and they still win though). Mike McMahon & Koy Detmer were beyond putrid this year. They need to be carrying the third string clipboards next year. I think the Eagles should sign Jeff Garcia. Garcia stunk this year in Detroit, but everyone stinks in Detroit. He'll "know the system" (I hate that saying), added to the fact that he and McNabb are charter members of the "Backstabbed by T.O. club". A perfect match if you ask me.

Other FA's:
Drew Brees
David Carr (huge roster bonus due)
Jon Kitna (Carson Palmer has already started lobbying for him to resign)
Josh McCown (I really like this QB, he should get a chance to start for someone)
Kurt Warner (close to resigning with Ariz)

Running Backs
2005 Grade: Incomplete

I can't really grade this group because the Eagles just didn't run the ball enough in meaningful games.
Westbrook was decent while he was still playing, and Moats looked good for flashes. This group still needs a big pounding back, and Najeh Davenport would fit the bill perfectly. He's a Packer which can't hurt, probably going to move on to another team on a 1 year deal, coming off an ankle injury. If he gets a long term deal it'll probably be more than the Eagles are willing to pay. There are a ton of good running backs that are going to hit free agency this year.
Other FA's:
Edgerrin James
Shaun Alexander
Jamal Lewis
Ahman Green
DeShaun Foster
Chester Taylor
Michael Bennett
Marshall Faulk
James Mungro
Maurice Morris

Wide Receivers
2005 Grade: C-

Considering Owens was here half of the year, and Reggie Brown made decent progress in his rookie season this is a fair grade. But Greg Lewis was a big disappointment this year after his nice play late in 2004. This team needs two WR's in the offseason in my opinion. Greg Lewis didn't even play like a # 3 WR this year. Billy McMullen, well, nobody knows his deal. The free agency crop at WR is nice but nothing worth breaking the bank over. Reggie Wayne will be the name Eagles fan salivate over all offseason, but that's probably unrealistic. The team has too many needs at other places to overspend at WR. So I'm looking at any two of David Givens, Antonio Bryant, Eric Moulds, & Joe Jurevicius. Givens & Bryant will probably get high dollar deals, but not Reggie Wayne/Randle El type money. They'll probably give similar production too. Bryant will probably be kept by the Browns but that front office can't seem to do anything right lately, so if they falter, the Eagles should swoop in. Moulds & Jurevicius I like because they're veterans, and Jurevicius always seems to make a big catch.

Other FA's:
Reggie Wayne
Antwaan Randle El
Josh Reed
Randy Hymes
Peter Warrick
Jabar Gaffney
Rod Gardner
Corey Bradford
Kevin Johnson (I could see the Eagles signing him - old McNabb buddy)
Peerless Price (how the mighty have fallen)
Koren Robinson
Dez White

Tight Ends
2005 Grade: C

L.J. Smith fumbles the ball too much. That's my only problem with L.J. Besides that he's a decent Tight End. The Eagles will need another Tight End. I'm thinking the guy is Justin Peelle. He's 26, relatively unheard of, and has been behind Antonio Gates and blocked for LT2. Can't get better experience than that. Plus, he's a Duck and it would some readers happy.

Other FA's:
Chris Baker
Brandon Manumaleuna
Matt Schoebel
Stephen Alexander

Offensive Line: D

You can say I'm being harsh on these grades, but this year's Eagles team was a complete team breakdown. The offensive line could be looked at as what started the downfall by letting McNabb get buried by Atlanta in the first game of the year. It's really hard to preview what the Eagles should do here because I don't have access to Tra Thomas's medical file. If Thomas is done, signing Runyan may become a priority. Even if Thomas is OK, the Eagles may want to cut him loose. I'm thinking it may be time to end the Runyan/Thomas era in Philly. Shawn Andrews can move to tackle on either side. He looked like a great pick at times this year, showed his youth at others. Still, he's a mainstay for years on the line. I think the Eagles will take the best O-lineman available in this years draft. I think it's a smart move too. In free agency, they'll probably also sign an o-lineman. The guy I'm looking at is Steve Hutchinson from the Seahawks. The Seahawks have one of the games best offensive lineman, and Hutchinson is a big reason why. But can Seattle afford to pay both him and Walter Jones huge salaries? If they do, Shaun Alexander is certainly a goner and that may not be too popular for a team coming off of a Super Bowl. Watch for the franchise tag here. As for offensive tackles, Jeff Backus (Det) & Tom Ashworth (NE) lead the charge.
I doubt Ashworth will leave NE and who knows what Matt Millen will do.

Other FA's:
Stephen Neal (NE)
LeCharles Bentley (thought of as one of the game's best centers, likely heading to Cleve to play Guard)
Justin Hartwig (Tenn, Fisher finally has money to play with this offseason and probably won't let his good o-lineman go)
Jon Runyan (he's 32 but o-lineman can play well into their 30's)

Next week: The defense!

SUPER BOWL PREVIEW

Seahawks vs. Steelers (-4, O/U 47.5) in Detroit

When I think of these teams I think of the word solid. Both have solid offenses and defenses. Solid special teams with solid coaches. The sentimental favorites will be the Steelers with Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis, both of whom have yet to win a Super Bowl.

When the Steelers have the ball, look for them to stay aggressive through the air. The formula has worked the last three weeks and I don't see Cowher and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt changing that. Seattle's defensive line has played great all year, getting constant pressure on the QB. Willie Parker will be a huge factor in this game. If he can get a few yards early, that could slow down that pass rush. Willie Parker is my surprise MVP pick.

When the Seahawks have the ball, it's balance all the way. A healthy dose of Shaun Alexander but don't get too used to that, because Mike Holmgren is from the Andy Reid school of coaching and loves to throw the ball. The Steelers one possible weakness is pass defense. They've shown signs of weakness at times this year. Matt Hasselbeck will need to be the MVP if the Seahawks are to win.


My pick: Steelers 20, Seahawks 13. I think we're in for a low scoring game. Both defenses can play and Cowher has a habit of getting conservative in big games. I think he's learned from his ways and will be a little more aggressive, but not too much. Look for Willie Parker to be the MVP.

Baseball

Pitchers and Catchers are only weeks away from reporting to Spring Training. I'll save my Phillies offseason analysis for March, but I just wanted to make one quick note. The Reds are apparently interviewing Mike Arbuckle for their open GM position. All I can say is, "PLEASE!!!!!!!!!". Please take him away.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia went 5-3 while I was away and vaulted all the way up to 6th place in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers (23-21) are now assured of finishing January above .500. They even just won a tough back to back without Allen Iverson. I blast them enough, so I have to give them credit when they deserve it. I said the schedule would get tougher in January, but Philly's strength of schedule actually dropped all the way to 29th this week (.484). I have a feeling that February is not going to kind the Sixers, but we shall see.

There were some happenings with the club over the past two weeks. First, Kyle Korver was benched in favor of John Salmons. I can understand this move. Philly is terrible defensively, and KK was easily the weakest link of the starting five. Replacing him with Salmons was pretty much the only way for coach Maurice Cheeks to go (unless you consider Matt Barnes an option). The Sixers do lose 4 points a game with the change but get more athletic in the progress. Besides, KK is probably better suited to be a 6th man type anyway.

The main story as far as I'm concerned was that both AI and Chris Webber complained in some form about their "roles" with the team. Webber was not happy with how he was being used in the offense. Hmm, where have I heard C-Web say that before since he came to Philly? Anyway, Chris wants to average more assists, and knows he can't if AI is going to have the ball all the time. This was the locker room drama that led to Allen suggesting to the media that he was "unsure of his role". Meaning does the offense run through me or Webber? Here's the thing about that fellas, you both have known the deal about each other from day one. Either you decide to sacrifice and work together, or end up with no rings. With combined salaries of 39 and 42 million over the next two seasons, it's unlikely that either of them is going anywhere until C-Web's contract is up..

This weeks brings the Sixers: Phoenix, Detroit & @Cleveland (back to back). That doesn't look good, does it? I'd say one win would be nice, but AI's left ankle injury makes Philly a bit of a wild card at the moment.

- Indiana's Ron Artest was finally traded on Wednesday to Sacramento for Peja Stojakovic. It's hard for me to declare a definitive winner in this deal for a few reasons. Both of these players needed a change of scenery in the worst way, so taking that into account, I'll go over the positives first. The Kings (18-26) are a terrible defensive team (25th overall in opponent's FG% at 46%) and have a reputation for being soft. Sacto also had no one that could break their man down off the dribble and finish at the rim. Ron-Ron should help in all those areas. The Pacers (21-21) were having trouble scoring (93 ppg or 24th overall) and needed another consistent outside threat to make things easier on Jermaine O'Neal in the post. Peja's 18.3 career scoring average and 39.8% career mark form 3 point land should help Indy immediately.

On paper the trade looks good for both sides, but games aren't played on paper as we all know. The risks with Artest are well documented. The guy is unstable and can blow up your team at any minute in any number of different ways. I don't see anyone on the Kings, maybe with the exception of former teammate Brad Miller, that can command Ron's respect enough to keep him in line. Not President Geoff Petrie, coach Rick Adelman, or team leader Mike Bibby. I'm sure the hope of the Maloof brothers is that a fresh start will make all the difference and Artest will be changed man. Time will tell.

The Pacers' plan looked good until JO tore his left groin and was lost for eight weeks to the remainder of the regular season. Suddenly the inside outside game Indy's brain trust envisioned with O'Neal and Stojakovic/Stephen Jackson is up in smoke. To make matters worse, starting PG Jamaal Tinsley will be out for at least another week, and maybe much longer, as he tries to get his right elbow/biceps injury healed up. So Peja is coming into a situation where he will be the focal point of the offense, which is exactly the role he was struggling with during his final days in Sacto. I'm not even mentioning the problems Stojakovic has had with a protruding disc in his back this year, or that he can opt of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Since I'm paid to voice my opinion, I give the nod here to the Kings. Ron-Ron is a ticking time bomb, but he's a very talented time bomb that just might excel as the unquestioned best player on a team. It's hard to believe, but I actually think the Pacers took on MORE risk in this deal. It's very possible that Peja continues his sub par play for the rest of the season and leaves Indy high and dry come summer time. If that does turn out to be the case, and Indy ends up with nothing for Artest, it will officially be time to remove CEO Donnie Walsh from his pedestal.

- Supposedly the trade flood gates were going to open after Ron-Ron was dealt. Umm, not so much. While former teammates Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge wasted no time putting together a seven player three draft pick deal on Thursday, nothing else went down. Even though this deal seemed sexy when it was announced, it really doesn't help either team all that much in my opinion. The Celtics received Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Olowokandi, Dwayne Jones, and a future first round pick from the Timberwolves for Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, Justin Reed, and two conditional second round picks.


On Minnesota's (20-22) end, a common thought around the league has been that Kevin Garnett needs a sidekick who can create his own shot. Enter Ricky Davis. It's also been said that the Wolves needed to get more athletic as a team. Enter Banks, Reed, and Blount (compared to Kandi). The first round pick McHale gave up is not that important to Minne because they need help now, not three years from now. While Davis will do the things people think KG needs on offense, he's not that big of an upgrade from Wally on the defensive end. Ricky is certainly more athletic then "World", but he's not known for his defensive prowess to be kind. Blount could be the biggest difference maker in this trade because he can make shots. The Wolves are another team that has trouble putting the ball in the hoop (26th overall at 91.2 ppg), so Blount's consistent mid-range jumper will come in handy for sure. I know he plays no D and doesn't rebound or block shots, but it's not like Olowokandi did any of those things either. Marcus Banks could help them on D, but I have a hard time seeing him getting regular minutes with Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, and Anthony Carter already in front of him at the point. Not to mention he'll have to compete with rookie Bracey Wright at PG too. Justin Reed has kind of let me down this year, but given Minne's lack of athletic tough minded defenders at the SF spot, he may flourish in the Twin Cities if given a chance.

For Boston (18-26) the addition of Szczerbiak allows them to move Paul Pierce back to his more natural SG position. I think Wally and PP could work well as a tandem because they play different games on the offensive end. Wally will be able to float around the perimeter and get easy looks from the double teams Pierce commands. In turn Wally's presence will help keep teams honest on Paul, possibly making PP's life a little easier in the process. However, the most daunting task for the Celtics to overcome will be PP having to guard the other team's best player on a nightly basis. I'm not sure he's in good enough shape to pull double duty like Kobe Bryant does. The addition of Kandi and Dwayne Jones means next to nothing. I see Olowokandi as an insurance policy in case Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, or Raef LaFrentz gets injured. I suppose it's possible that Kandi plays 10-15 minutes a night, but mainly he'll be there to sit on the bench and look disinterested. Which is actually what he does best anyway. Jones has yet to play in the NBA, so I have no idea on him. It's always nice to have an extra first round pick, but Boston already has so many young players trying to find their way, that I'm not sure they need another.

This trade has very little salary implications too. Including this year Wally has 4 years and 46 million left. Where Blount has 5 years 33.5 million and Davis 3 years 19 million. The rest of the players are done after this year (except for Jones who has another year at 650 K), so neither team can claim this was a salary dump. This deal is basically an attempt by both teams to improve their chemistry with a roster shake up. It's hard to say who will mesh better together, KG & Ricky or PP & Wally? Since that is as close to wash as can be, I'll give the slight edge in the short term to the Wolves on the strength of Mark Blount over Michael Olowokandi. In the long run though, Ainge clearing up more playing time for Perk and Al Jef may tilt this in favor Celts. Bottom line for me is that neither team is any closer to making the playoffs then they were before the trade.

- Did I say nothing else went down? A small fib on my part. Minnesota Vice President Kevin McHale also sent Nikoloz Tskitishvili to the Suns (28-16) for a 2006 second round pick. I had no idea why McHale signed Skita for two years this off season after one good summer league game, but getting a second rounder for him is a steal of a deal as I see it. Skita hasn't done a thing since being the fifth pick overall in the 2002 draft. He's a seven footer that likes to shoot 3's and play no defense. You can forget about him rebounding too. Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni coached Skita in Italy, so if anyone can get something out of him, it has to be D'Antoni. If Skita does not produce under his former coach is a system tailor made to his supposed abilities, he can start packing his bags for the Euroleague this summer.

- Also on Thursday Toronto Raptors' President Richard Peddie fired GM Rob Babcock after only a year and a half on the job. Never mind that it was Peddie who completely botched the GM search that led to him hiring Babcock as a last resort. Or that the people of Toronto (15-30) want Peddie's head on a platter too. None of that matters because someone had to be the fall guy for that mess of a team, and it's not like Babcock's track record didn't earn him this ziggy.

It all started with him drafting Rafael Araujo eighth overall in 2004. I know he wanted a C to play along side Chris Bosh, but he could have had Robert Swift, Andris Biedrins, or David Harrison (all have shown more then "Hoffa" to this point). Not to mention a swingman extraordinaire like Andre Iguodala. Then he went on to sign Rafer Alston to a 6 year 30 million dollar contract after only one good season. He closed out his first year on the job by trading Vince Carter for Alonzo Mourning (was paid 10 million by the Raptors to never play a game for them), Eric Williams, Aaron Williams, and two first round picks. That pretty much sealed his fate right there and set the bar ridiculously low for generations to come when trading a star player.

It wasn't all bad for Babcock though. He did sign Matt Bonner and Jose Calderon out of no where. Not like they are stars, but they are solid role players. He also drafted Charlie Villanueva (working out OK) and traded Alston for Mike James (a coup for him). In the end though, this is about making the franchise look like a place where Bosh wants to resign after this season or next. If I'm Bosh I play out my rookie contract by accepting Toronto's one year tender after next season and become an unrestricted free agent after the '07-08 campaign. It seems like a long way off, but Bosh will only be 24 that summer and about to enter his prime. An athletic, lefty, near seven footer, with a nice touch, and 20 & 10 potential, who's a good citizen taboot? Can you say max contract offers from every team that can afford it?

- On 1/22/06 Kobe Bryant scored the second highest point total in NBA history with 81. Yet still some people bashed him with "He took 46 shots". Or "I bet his teammates were hating it." Huh? I wonder if these people have seen the Lakers (23-20) play this year? Who else is going to score? Lamar Odom? He's a complimentary scorer at best (15.9 ppg career) with career high of 34. You've got to be kidding me if you're going to suggest any of the other Lakers. Bottom line, the Lakers were losing 49-63 at halftime and it looked to me as if they were going to get embarrassed. So I went to bed and missed history in the making. The "Mamba" went on to score 55 in the second half on 28-46 from the field, 7-13 from 3, and 18-20 from the FT stripe (snapping his streak of 62 consecutive makes from there) in only 42 minutes of play for the game. That adds up to a 73.9 true shooting percentage*. If that's not impressive enough, the team actually needed him to score like that to win. Odom is a nice player, but has a tendency to disappear from time to time. The rest of the bunch did what they do. My conclusion? There are a certain percentage of people out there, and you know who you are, that are going to bash "Ocho" no matter what he does. I guess that's their prerogative, but by being such "haters" they are missing one of the greatest players in NBA history during his prime.

* True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)].

- Chris "Birdman" Andersen was suspended from the NBA for two years after violating the league's substance abuse policy. Andersen has never tested positive before, so that means he tested positive for a "drug of abuse". Those are amphetamine and its analogs, which include methamphetamine; cocaine; LSD; opiates, including heroin, codeine, and morphine; and PCP. I'm guessing he tested positive for heroin, coke, or ecstasy. Stanley Roberts was the last guy kicked out of the league for drugs back in 1999, and ecstasy is what got him. Who really knows about "Birdman" though? He was a decent role player who hustled, blocked shots, and grabbed rebounds. He'll probably be best remembered for needing nine attempts to make his first dunk in the 2005 dunk contest. When you think about that display, it's got to be heroin.

- Last Monday Chucky Atkins signed with Memphis after being bought out of his contract for an undisclosed amount by Washington. Atkins gives the Grizzlies a veteran insurance policy at the point behind the often injured Bobby Jackson. You have to wonder about Chuck though? I know Memphis (25-18) is struggling and all since Damon Stoudamire was lost for the season, but what they had going for them this year was good chemistry. Now President Jerry West brings in Atkins who has talked his way out of Orlando, Boston, the Lakers, and now the Wizards. The only place Chuck was ever happy was Detroit (who he incidentally wanted to sign with again, but they had no interest). Since this is just a half season rental where Atkins will be auditioning for the entire league, it will probably be OK. I'd just hate to see him derail the Griz' season with his special brand of team cancer.

Don't miss my Mid-Season Report next week before we go on hiatus.

NHL Week In Review By : Ed Wasser

- How, on this God forsaken mud ball called Earth, does Islander GM Mike Milbury still have a job? A decade (A DECADE!!!) of unmitigated failure rivaled only by Elgin Baylor's reign of garbage with the LA Clippers and every Friday Milbury gets a paycheck. In 10 seasons Milbury has zero playoff series victories and that includes 6 seasons when the Islanders did not make the playoffs at all. 6 seasons of no playoffs...in the NHL, from a team in New York. That's almost impossible. I don't even know how many coaches he's been through but I know last year he fired Peter Laviolette who is currently leading the Hurricanes to the lead in points in the entire Eastern Conference. Milbury traded away Roberto Luongo (the best goalie on a bad team in the league) for Mark Parrish (who?) and Ollie Jokinen (he's awe-ite). A few weeks ago he traded Janne Niinimaa, a fast puck carrying defenseman, a TREMENDOUSLY valued commodity in the NHL, for John Erskine. Let me ask everyone, what's your favorite moment of John Erskine's career? Yeah, exactly. Just absolute lunacy. Milbury is single handedly killing the once mighty Islander fan base.

Line of the Week.....From Flyers' broadcaster Gary Dornhoffer recalling a 1968 Flyers game he played in were St. Louis Blue Red Berenson scored all 6 Blues goals, including 4 in 9 minutes.."We kept saying it would have been a great game...you know, if Berenson never showed up". You think?

- NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman at his best.....The Bloomberg News reported that NHL franchise values are souring, some up as much as 50% plus, because of all the money the teams are saving because of the cap. Bloomberg estimated that the Mighty Ducks, which sold during the lockout for $75 million, is now worth about $150 million which is great news on two fronts. 1.) Because the sale is less then a year old and 2.) because the team was owned by Disney which means those jerks left $75 million on the table.

- NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman at his worst.....I'll give OLN credit for vastly improving their product in terms of the camera quality and the fact that Pierre McGuire has abandoned his attempt to be the in studio pregame/halftime horse's ass a la Terry Bradshaw during the broadcasts but it doesn't hide the fact that keeping the games on ESPN was the right play. Millions of fewer people have OLN, plus ESPN controls what sports get play on SportsCenter, and ESPN II gave the NHL it's on show (NHL Tonight). If Bettman had sacrificed some short term dough for the wider exposure of a much better game I think it would have paid off in the long run.

- Line of the Week II......LA Kings broadcaster Bob Miller during last Tuesday's Kings/Lightning game in response to the question "who would you trade to get Alexander Ovechkin?" "Anybody they me asked for".

- Gotta hand it to long time MMM subscriber Chris Paul. I knew that Washington Capital Ovechkin was a star internationally but so are a lot of guys. If you listen long enough you can hear predictions of greatness for hundreds of international players that fade into the sunset. For every Sergei Federov there's a bunch of Pavel Brendl's out there. But Paul was talking up Ovechkin from the start and God was he ever correct. You know how certain athletes change the game just by their presence on the playing surface? Barry Bonds at bat, Barry Sanders getting a hand off, Michael Jordan in a close game with a minute to go....Ovechkin is at that level already. The entire complexion of the game changes when he hits the ice, of course it doesn't hurt that he's the only player the Capitals have.

- The Flyers desperately need a break. The Olympic break and All-Star break can not come fast enough for these guys. Last week the Flyers beat the Penguins 4 - 2 because....well, because they're the Penguins. But the Flyers lost to the Canadiens 5 - 3 after blowing a 2 - 0 lead and then got destroyed by the Lightning at home 6 - 0. In the Lightning game goalie Antero Niitymakki played terribly but I think he's tired, he's certainly playing like it. The Flyers have injuries galore including groin issues for Peter Forsberg, Kim Johnsson, and Robert Esche, a shoulder problem for Eric Desjardins, and of course the concussion of Keith Primeau. Plus Joni Pitkanen just came back from injury. It's true that the minor leaguers played well for the Flyers but minor leaguers are in the minors for a reason. The Flyers need a break to get all these guys back and start the stretch run fully loaded. By the way, I'm going on the record now that Keith Primeau's career is over. I'm basing that prediction strictly on watching Bobby Clarke's body language and hearing his voice while discussing Primeau during interviews.

- OK I haven't written about Bada Boom Racing in a while so I'll just get everyone caught up. Let me start with this...aside from the initial investment we've never put another dime in the horse business. Not one. Every trainer bill, vet bill, and bail of hay has been paid for by purse money. So Clemente is on a farm in New Jersey until the spring. He's proven to only be a grass horse so we're waiting until the spring to run him again when the grass racing starts again. So we got another horse, his name is Fort Seattle. Fort Seattle won a race for us on January 3rd. It was a great win in the slop. Since we've been playing with the house's money for over a year in a business were thousands of people lose money every day the logical move would be to pocket the money and just keep the horses we have so of course....we got more horses. We got a 4 year old gelding named Modacious and a 4 year old filly named Lady Marmalade. So that brought the stable up to 5, Clemente, Second Story Man, Modacious, Lady Marmalade, and Fort Seattle. Yesterday we had 3 of the horses running on one day. The first race was Lady Marmalade, running a mile and a sixteenth with Victor Carrero in the saddle.

Victor Carrero is a funny kid. He's so mild mannered and polite it's crazy. I heard a story from another jockey, Rodrigo Madrigal, that he was in a race and he and Carrero were battling it out down the stretch going full out and when Carrero's whip accidentally brushed Madrigal Carrero said "Oh!! I'm sorry!!" Even in the middle of the race he's thinking about being polite. Carrero speaks with a thick Spanish accent and right before yesterday's race he leaned over to shake my hand and he says "I will try very hard for you today". I thought that was cool, especially since I knew it was true.

So the race was a long one. When the race started Carrero had Lady Marmalade a little too far back for comfort but he remained within striking distance. Down the stretch he was able to get Lady Marmalade to really turn on the gas and he won by a head. Lady Marmalade was also claimed during the race so she had a short yet illustrious career with Bada Boom.

The next race was Modacious running 6.5 furlongs with Carlos Lopez Jr. in command. My boy was up against it in this race, there were a lot of great horses in the race. Modacious finished 4th which was probably as good as he could do considering the competition.

The final race was Fort Seattle running 6.5 furlongs with Luis Rivera Jr. in the irons. Rivera just knows Fort Seattle which makes him the perfect jockey for him. When the race started it looked like Fort Seattle had the race in the bag, he was close to the lead virtually from the start. But he started to tire out toward the end of the race and he eventually finished second. So all in all it was a pretty good day for Bada Boom.

Comments:
saurinmeht@gmail.com
dsura@peacehealth.org
ewwasser@hotmail.com

Monday, January 16, 2006

Monday Morning Mehta 1/16/06

Edition # 149
January 16, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

Next week: The 2nd annual Official Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Guide.

NFL

Steelers 21 - Colts 18
In what will probably be the Game of the Year, the Steelers hold on for dear life to beat the Colts on a last minute missed FG by the "idiot kicker" Mike Vanderjadt. There's tons to talk about on this game, I'll start with my Peyton Manning diatribe.


Peyton Manning. He's now 3-6 in the postseason. He was 0-4 vs. his rival in college Florida. He's 3-9 vs. the Patriots. As I've said for years and years, the guy is a choker. He's a choker until he wins a Super Bowl, period. All the stupid gyrations and finger pointing that he does all game are ridiculous. People in Philadelphia rip Donovan McNabb's play in the clutch, but the fact is that McNabb has been better than Manning in the playoffs. McNabb's made a Super Bowl. What makes it even better is the media darling Manning, who gets very little criticism, ripped into his offensive line after the game saying, "Let's just say we had protection issues". Shut up Peyton, just shut up. This is the playoffs, you're not playing the Houston Texans or Cleveland Browns. Defenses are much better and smarter. You're going to get pressure. On top of the fact that Indy throughout Peyton's career has "max protected". 90% of the time they have 2 tight ends in the game to block, sometimes 3 tight ends. They Colts M.O. is max protect Manning and let Wayne & Harrison get open. And I watched the game, and in the first half Manning had plenty of time on multiple occasions and just missed WR's.

Another point on Manning. You can't keep 30 seconds on the clock, 2 timeouts, and expect your kicker to kick a 46 yard FG. Anything over 35 is an adventure late in the game especially in playoff pressure. Manning has to drive the ball inside the 20. He had 2nd and 2 and decided to throw the ball deep twice, instead of moving the chains. I place that blame fully on Manning. You have to get the first down there especially with all that time and timeouts left.

Bettis' fumble. I completely agree with Bill Cowher's move to run the ball with over a minute left at the 2 yard line. The Colts have all 3 timeouts left and if the Steelers took 3 knees, kicked a risky FG, the Colts would've gotten the ball back, only down 6 points with about a minute left. No thanks. Did I mention Peyton Manning is a choker?

Seahawks 20 - Redskins 10
The injury to Shaun Alexander completely changed this game. But Matt Hasselbeck stepped up as did his favorite target Darrell Jackson. The Redskins offense was better than they were last week, but too many missed opportunities hurt this team. Joe Gibbs will need to work on offense in the offseason, as he needs a WR opposite Santana Moss, but this defense will be a force for many years.

Broncos 27 - Patriots 13
The score and the game here tell two different stories. The score indicated Broncos won comfortably. Watching the game it was clear the Patriots outplayed the Broncos. The Patriots out-gained the Broncos 420 to 286. But the Patriots made way too many mistakes and turned the ball over 5 times. FIVE TIMES. You won't win playoff games on the road doing that. Bad calls by the refs aside, the key play in this game was the interception by Brady deep in Bronco territory which Champ Bailey took 100 yards back to the 1 yard line (on another iffy fumble call). But, in the end, there's no crying in baseball and still...no threepeats in football.

Panthers 29 - Bears 21
The Monsters of the Midway...NOT. This was very reminiscent of the Eagles playoff game in Chicago in 2001. The Bears coming off of a freak season playing their home game after a bye. Same outcome. Bears disappoint again. The defense was completely dismantled by Jake Delhomme, who obviously deserves a lot of credit. I've always said what separates the good from great QB's is winning road playoff games. Delhomme is making a habit of it now (@ StL, @ Philly, @ NYG, @ Chic). Steve Smith is an absolutely amazing WR, but his antics are ridiculous. My only question to Lovie Smith is this: Why did you start off the game firing the ball all over the field? RUN THE BALL!! That's what got you here.

Championship Previews

Steelers @ Broncos (-3.5)
There's one player that will determine the outcome of this game. Jake Plummer. If Mike Shanahan can lead Jake Plummer to the Super Bowl, they should just put Shanny into Canton immediately (sorry Tang). Would I bet on it? He!l no. Especially the way the Steelers have been playing the last 6 weeks. I'm not going to embarrass my self and even make a pick on these games anymore. I'll just say this, look for the Steelers to pound the ball on the ground much more than vs. the Colts. For the Broncos, they really need to throw the ball. The Steelers still have some weaknesses vs. the pass, in my opinion and Plummer will have to take advantage to win.

Panthers @ Seahawks (-5)
I look at this game as the battle of the 2 QB's who are looking for respect. Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme will get a chance to emerge as top flight QB's in the NFL. Making 2 Super Bowls for Delhomme would be incredible, especially considering he would have had to win 4 straight road games to get there (don't forget Atlanta at the end of the year). Matt Hasellbeck has been solid, and almost spectacular all year, and could cap the year with a trip to Detroit. Shaun Alexander's health is a key here. With DeShaun Foster out with a broken ankle, Seattle has to have the advantage.

One side note: Ever notice that EVERY team, after they win, says that "Nobody gave us a chance, nobody thought we could win" blah blah blah. No matter who wins next weekend, they'll say "Nobody gave us a shot". Brutal. It's purely a self motivational "us vs. the World technique".



The Phillies should go after David Wells or Jeff Weaver. Drexel stinks. Peyton Manning is overrated (DE - CAF .. DE - CAF!) BTW, how annoying has that Peyton Manning commercial gotten? Let's move on to the NBA...

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia managed to hold on to the 7th seed in the East by going 2-1 for the week. The Sixers (18-18) beat two bad teams, which is what they should do, but it's hard for me to get exited about that. I discovered a new statistic this week called strength of schedule (SoS). It's pretty basic in that it tabulates your opponent's winning percentage. Philly's SoS ranks 27th so far, or 4th easiest, with a .487 winning percentage for the teams they've played. That further illustrates what I've been saying for weeks now that the Sixers' schedule is about to get noticeably tougher.

With the season approaching the half way mark, the dog days of the NBA are upon us. Rookies are hitting the wall, the constant travel is wearing the players down, and injuries are taking their toll. Which is why having a decent bench is so important. This is an area where the Sixers are lacking big time, and as the quality of their opponents starts to get better, I think this weakness is about to catch up with them. Just look at the scoring numbers. John Salmons leads this motley crew with 7.8 points per game. Followed by Steven Hunter 5.1 ppg, Lee Nailon 4.1 ppg, Shavlik Randolph 2.6 ppg, Matt Barnes 2 ppg, Michael Bradley 1.7 ppg, and Kevin Ollie 1.7 ppg. Yikes. The minutes they play are no better either. Salmons again leads the charge at 22.9 minutes per game. Then Hunter 18.3 mpg, Nailon 10.8 mpg, and Ollie 10.2 mpg are the only guys averaging double digit playing time. Shav 9 mpg, Barnes 7.8 mpg, and Bradley 7.4 mpg bring up the rear. Even though most of those dudes stink, I think coach Maurice Cheeks would be wise to play four of them 15+ minutes a night so his main players have something left for the second half of the year.

This week brings Philly: @Washington, New Jersey, Memphis, @Minnesota. The Wizards have been playing better lately, and are on a three game winning streak. You can expect tonight's game to feature plenty of offense and next to no defense. The Nets have slipped a little with Richard Jefferson out of the lineup, but this will still be a tough test for the Sixers. I don't give Philly much of a chance to beat the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves on Sunday will be another difficult game for the Sixers. 2-2 would constitute a good week for them in my book.

- Everyone that follows the NBA closely knows that Shaquille O'Neal's career has been on the downward slide for the last three years (including this one). I'm here to tell you that I've noticed another super star who is starting to lose half a step or so. The player is Kevin Garnett. I know he's only 29, but this is already his 11th season in the NBA. I think all that banging down low is finally starting to take a toll on KG's slim frame. His numbers are basically the same across the board with a few exceptions. His assists are down from 5.7 apg last year to 4.9 apg this, but that's more because of his teammates then anything else. His shooting percentage has improved from last season (50.2% to 54.7%). I think that comes with maturity and experience though. However, the telling dip is in KG's rebounding numbers. He is down to 11.2 rpg, which is his lowest average since 1998-99 (10.4 rpg). Rebounding is all about energy and athleticism, and from watching "Ticket" play this year, he seems to be lacking in both departments (from what he used to be of course).

I suppose he could be depressed or something about the Timberwolves (17-17) prospects for the future. Or maybe he's realized that the prime of his career was wasted by poor management in Minnesota. I think that's selling KG short though. The guy has never given less then 100% every night, and has always been a team player with less then great talent around him. Which is exactly why I think he's starting to slip. Look, Garnett is still a great player. His Player Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) is third overall at 27.64. His +/- (Roland Rating) is ninth at +12.9. Not to mention he ranks 2nd in FG%, 5th in rebounds, and 16th in points. He's obviously still a top five player in the league. KG is not on the down hill slide yet, but my point is that he has reached the top of the mountain, and now has the bottom clearly in sight.

- Carmelo Anthony's career has been up and down, to be kind. Even though Denver's record (19-19) doesn't show it, I think Melo has turned a corner in his development as a player. The Nuggets still have no outside shooter, and have been without their entire projected big man rotation basically all year. With Kenyon Martin looking like he may never be the same again, Anthony has assumed the vocal leadership role for Denver. Being a vocal leader means nothing if you can't produce on the court ( i.e. K-Mart), which is why Melo's teammates are listening to him now. I shutter to think where the Nugs would be this season without the new and improved version of Anthony.

Gone are the days of Carmelo jacking up wild shots to "get his". I'm not sure if it's more experience, George Karl's coaching, or just plain old maturity that's made the difference, but Melo clearly has a better understanding of how to be a big time NBA scorer. He's shooting a career high 46.6% from the field. Not great, but much better then his first two seasons (42.6% & 43.1%). What makes it more impressive is that he's taking the most shots of his young career too (18.8 FGA's). There's still more. He's also getting to the free throw more then ever ( 9.4 FTA's, tied for 5th overall).
What does this all mean? Well first off he's averaging a career high 25.4 points (8th overall), but it's how he's getting them that makes the difference. Melo mixes up his game much better now. He can still shoot the mid-range jumper, either by spotting up or off the dribble, with the best of them. That's nothing new. The difference in his game now is that when his shot isn't falling he doesn't force it anymore. Now he'll take slower players to the hole and post up smaller players on the nights when his J is off. Now whether that translates into an All-Star appearance in February remains to be seen. In the long run though, he'll be a better teammate and win more game as a result of diversifying his game.

- Richard Jefferson has missed the last three games for the Nets with back spasms. Not surprisingly, New Jersey (19-15) has lost all three. RJ had an MRI on Friday, which was negative, but it did show a muscle strain. He already tried to come back on Saturday in Dallas, but re-aggravated it warming up. He says he hopes to return Monday for Indiana, but I'd say the smart money is on him returning for Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Nets have used Jacque Vaughn in RJ's place, sliding Vince Carter over to SF and Jason Kidd to SG. Needless to say, that hasn't worked out very well. NJ's weakness is their depth, and as this injury shows, they can't survive for long without their "Big 3" healthy.

Indiana (20-15) has been without starting PG Jamaal Tinsley for seven games with a torn right biceps muscle. Tinsley was originally supposed to miss only three games, but according to him he's "not close to coming back". He goes on "You can't set a timetable on this. It ain't no telling when I'll be ready." Poor English aside, Jamaal is an important piece to the Pacers when healthy. Thing is, that hasn't been very often over the past three seasons. Indy should be fine in the short term with veteran Anthony Johnson replacing Tinsley in the starting lineup and Sarunas Jasikevicius backing him up. The scary news for the Pacers is that Jermaine O'Neal sprained his left ankle Saturday in Chicago. It's not supposed to be too serious, but JO is questionable for Monday's game in New Jersey. Indy is struggling as it is, and they can ill afford to be without O'Neal for an extended period.

Elton Brand has missed the Clippers (19-14) last two games with a bruised right hip. Los Angeles won both of those games, but will not be able to maintain for long minus their best player. Brand dressed for Saturday's game against Seattle, but didn't play. Supposedly he's day to day, so all you Clips' fans out there can breathe easy.

The Houston Rockets' big free agent signing this summer, Stromile Swift, has missed the last three games with a scratched left eye. I wonder if anybody even noticed? The Rockets (12-23) are the most injury ravaged team in the NBA by far. Which is why I've been puzzled all season at coach Jeff Van Gundy's refusal to play Swift more. If Vice President Carroll Dawson didn't know about Stro's low basketball IQ before signing him for four years and 22.4 million, he just didn't do his homework.

Last Tuesday Utah's Carlos Boozer had his third setback rehabbing his injured left hamstring. This is the second consecutive time he was "close" to being back only to have it "tighten up" again. Honestly, this is some kind of joke right? Who misses an entire season with a strained hammy? I'm sure the Jazz (19-18) would love to move Boozer for some back court help, but finding someone to take the 47.4 million and four years left on his deal is pretty much mission impossible at this point.

NHL Week In Review By : Ed Wasser

- Well, that didn't take long. 11 games into his tenure as the new Penguins head coach and after a lazy, "I don't feel like washing my hair so I'm not going to sweat during this game", 3 - 1 loss at home to the Oilers Michel Therrien held a post game press conference and baby, IT WAS ON!!! Therrien didn't have a Hal McRae-esque melt down but he certainly took the players to task. Therrien speaks in broken English so I'm going to paraphrase some of his remarks. Therrien said the Penguins are "pathetic", the players don't care, they only pretend like they care, the player's paychecks should be cut in half because they only play half the time, the defense is "soft", and he believes the defensemen are actively "trying to be the worst defensive squad in the league. And they're doing at great job at it". But the nuclear bomb that Therrien dropped that really got everyone's attention was when he blasted the Penguins sparkling new $25 million free agent pick up, defenseman Sergei Gonchar. Therrien called Gonchar a......well, my mother reads this column so I won't repeat it but trust me it wasn't pretty.

The day after the Therrien blasting I was looking at the games coming up on my NHL package and I see the Penguins are playing the Blue Jackets in Columbus. Normally I wouldn't gravitate to that game but I was curious to see how the Penguins would react after being called "bleeping bleeps that don't bleep for bleep" by their coach. OK, so the stage is set. Now imagine the absolute worst case scenario humanly possible for the Penguins in this game, multiply that by 17, and you'll have the result of this game. First of all, a few hours before the game, the Penguins found out that their number one goalie, Jocelyn Thibault, is gone for the season. The Penguins had to start rookie goalie Dany Sabourin (who?). 10 seconds, that's one and zero seconds, into the game Sabourin tried to clear the puck but put it right on Blue Jacket Rick Nash's stick who could have got on his knees and blew the puck into the net if he wanted to. Naturally Nash buried the chance for a goal. Therrien looked like he had just seen the Creature From The Black Lagoon crawl out of his toilet, I mean he just couldn't believe it. 10 freaking seconds!!! Then before the first commercial break it was 2 - 0. The game was 6 - 1 after 2 periods and that's the way it ended. Please believe me when I tell you that 6 - 1 makes the game sound closer then it was, the Blue Jackets pretty much quit playing after the second period. The Penguins are ATROCIOUS and Therrien was right...they don't care.

- From the Conspiracy Theory Department.....did you ever notice that the ultra wacky, drug guzzling members of Celebrity Fit Club members aren't really all that fat? Daniel Baldwin, Gary Busey, Jani Lane, and now Jeff Conaway are portly but not morbidly obese. Could it be that the producers of Celebrity Fit Club are sacrificing chubby for nutty? Could it be that the producers are knowingly putting drug addicts on the show to increase ratings? Could it be that I wrote this blurb because I couldn't think of anything else to write? We may never know the answers to these questions.

- Reason number 77,098 why referees, umpires, and officials in all sports from college on up are inept and generally out of control. Last Tuesday San Jos? Shark Joe Thorton made his much anticipated return to Boston, a game that may have been the biggest hockey game in Boston since the Bruins were in the finals in 1990. 6 minutes into the game Thorton hit Bruin and his off ice best friend Hall Gill from behind, the hit was certainly a penalty but it was just a normal hockey hit. Gill hit the ice and hurt his shoulder, but the shoulder Gill hurt was left shoulder, Thorton hit him on the right. Not only did referee Chris Rooney give Thorton a penalty, he gave him a game misconduct a.k.a. throwing Thorton out of the game. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, was stunned. It was a total joke. Bruins fans were even booing. After the game guess who also said the game misconduct was a joke? Hall Gill. As soon as I think the worst officials are in college football I see a horrifically officiated game in the NFL. As soon as I think the worst officials are in the NFL I see a horrifically officiated game in the NHL. As soon as I think the worst officials are in the NHL I see a horrifically officiated game in the NBA. As soon as I think the worst officials are are in the NBA I see the grand daddy of all bad officials....BOXING!!!!

- While I'm on the subject of boxing Mike Francesa had a GREAT point about boxing on the "Mike and The Mad Dog" show on The Fan in New York. Francesa was talking about the HBO show "Real Sports" and his point was simply this.....has there ever been a sport that deserved it's own segment on "Real Sports" more then boxing? Boxing is more crooked and corrupt then the presidential voting in Cuba but HBO never mentions it. Why? Because HBO is in bed with boxing that's why. Obviously I agree with Francesa but I'll take it a little further....ever see the stories about boxers on "Real Sports"? They make them out to be modern day, noble gladiators of meager means who have achieved excellence which may be true in some cases but enough with the infomercials, how about a real story.

- I dunno, you all tell me. I think this may have been a tad racist but it happened a few weeks ago and I haven't heard anything so maybe I'm off base. The Vancouver Canucks have a line that features Henrik Sedin, his twin brother Daniel, and Anson Carter who is a black guy. The Hockey News had a blurb that said "we have a suggestion for a nickname for the Sedin, Sedin, and Carter line in Vancouver. The Three Brothers Line". When I read it it just seemed like it was, maybe not racist but certainly inappropriate. Maybe I'm nuts.

- I'm was watching Nashville playing Carolina on the NHL Package last Friday night, it was the Nashville broadcast and during the commercials I start fiddling with my computer. That's when I heard former Flyers player, former Flyers coach, and current Predator color man Terry Crisp do a promo and saying "and don't miss T.B.D.S.S.P. because tonight yada, yada, yada" Huh? What the hell is T.B.D.S.S.P.? So later in the game I hear it again and that's when they flash the graphic, Crisp was talking about "The Best Damn Sports Show Period" but he either wouldn't say the name of the show (which is hard to believe because Crisp is Canadian and they curse on TV in Canada) or he wasn't allowed to say it. Nashville is the buckle of the Bible belt after all.

- Before I start this I wanna say A.) I am quite aware that hockey is a business and that businesses exist for the sole purpose of making money and B.) nobody owes anybody a living. With that said the way the Tampa Bay Lightning handled first ballot Hall Of Famer and Lightning captain Dave Andreychuk was a disgrace. GOD I WISH I COULD CURSE IN THIS SPACE!!! They have crazy wording but for all intents and purposes Andreychuk was released by the Lightning last week and, despite the fact that he willed (WILLED!!!) the Lightning to that Stanley Cup in 2004, he was forced to hold a humiliating press conference in which he was pretty much expected to either become a minor league hockey player, riding a bus 12 hours a day in between games, or quit the game. Andreychuk decided to quit. Seriously, think about this, every reporter at the Andreychuk press conference last week was in tears because it was obvious to all that a stone cold shafting was in progress. Andreychuk said in his press conference with an ear to ear grin on his face "people tell me that the new game is too fast for me. Well, the game has been too fast for me for the last 10 years. Hey, I tried. The only person I can think of that left the game on his own terms is Ray Bourque. So well, if nothing else at least I can say I went down swinging". Wow. So after an amazing 1759 games played before winning a Stanley Cup, being second all time in points scored by a left winger, and being a no doubt about it first ballot Hall of Famer it's over for Dave Andreychuk. That's cool but Lightning coach John Tortorella and GM Jay Feaster should be, and I predict will be, embarrassed by the way they handled the whole thing.

- The Flyers ended their 11 game road trip and have finally returned home. The final 3 games on the road trip were a 3 - 0 loss in New Jersey, a 5 - 2 win against the pathetic Blackhawks, and a 6 - 3 loss to the Red Wings. The loss to the Red Wings was understandable, after an 11 game road trip it's tough to keep up the momentum. When the Flyers got home they had a game against the Avalanche. The Flyers lost the game 4 - 3 but it was brought along by a ridiculous hooking penalty called in overtime against Flyers defensemen Mike Rathje. On the penalty Rathje just touched Joe Sakic who promptly dove like Greg Louganis and drew the penalty. So the Flyers lost 3 out of their last 4 but most people aren't concerned, the road trip, which I would argue was unfair, is finally over so I believe the Flyers will now get back to their earlier winning ways.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Monday Morning Mehta 1/9/06

Edition # 148
January 9, 2006

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

NFL Playoffs Recap

Skins 17 - Bucs 10
In a hard hitting defensive battle, the Skins continue their hot streak by holding off and beating the Bucs by a TD. Edell Sheppard should have caught what appeared to be the game tying TD with less than 3 minutes left. Tampa had all the momentum, but just couldn't punch the game tying points in. Sean Taylor, acting as a typical alum of "The U", was tossed for spitting on a Bucs player. The Redskins had no offense in this one, with both TD's coming off turnovers.

Patriots 28 - Jaguars 3
Boy I was way off. The Jaguars had absolutely no offense in this one. The Jags defense held strong for 2 quarters, but just couldn't keep Tom Brady down much longer, as they broke through in the 3rd quarter. Byron Leftwich wasn't sharp at all, and I doubt if David Gerrard would've been much better. Tedy Bruschi's absence didn't mean much, as Willie McGinest was all over the place with a record 4.5 sacks.

Panthers 23 - Giants 0
This was the most enjoyable game of the weekend. Watching Eli Manning, whose clearly not ready for playoff football, get beat up and look about as bad as a QB can look in the playoffs. The Panthers ran all over the depleted defense of the Giants, and Steve Smith had his usual fantastic game.

Steelers 31 - Bengals 17
On his first throw of the game, and his first throw of what should be a long playoff career, Carson Palmer threw a perfect 66 yard bomb to Chris Henry. Unfortunately, he was hit in the leg on the play and tore his ACL & MCL. What a shock. The Bengals, amazingly got back up off the mat to take a 17-7 lead, but the Steelers defense toughened after that, and Jerome Bettis took over. Jon Kitna played admirably considering he's gotten very few snaps this year, but it's a shame we didn't get to see this game with Carson Palmer for 4 quarters.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

Redskins at Seahawks (-8.5)
The play of the Seahawks defense will tell you the outcome of this game. If they can limit Clinton Portis and the Skins running game, this will be an easy Seahawks victory. On offense, Seattle should be able to pass the ball on Washington. Matt Hasselbeck has been very solid this year, and I expect him to have a decent game here.
Pick: Seattle 24 - Redskins 13

Patriots at Denver (-3)
Both AFC games are rematches from earlier in the year, both won by the home teams. The Broncos beat the Patriots soundly earlier in the year, and held off a late charge to beat the Pats 28-20. I think the Broncos will have success running the ball on the Pats. But Jake Plummer vs. Tom Brady? I really don't think the Patriots are good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver (especially Denver coming off of a bye), but I just can't pick either team here.
Pick: Too chicken to pick a side

Steelers at Indy (-9)The Colts have been waiting on this game for about a month now. In the meantime, the Steelers have gotten red hot. Their running the ball effectively, and Big Ben has been healthier and accurate. But this fast track that Indy plays on is just not a good matchup for the Steelers. After an emotional, divisional game, I don't think the Steelers can keep with the Colts for 4 quarters.
Pick: Colts 34 - Steelers 17

Panthers at Bears (-3)
I really like both of these teams and don't know who to pick here again. I wish the Bucs would've won so the Panthers could've went to Seattle instead. But instead we have another rematch. The Bears defense is always the story, but I do think the Bears will have more success this time on offense with Rex Grossman behind the helm. The winner will probably be my pick next week over Seattle, but we'll see...Pick: Bears 20 - Panthers 17

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia went 1-2 for the week again and dropped to one game below .500 (16-17). The Sixers ended up going 2-5 on their longest road trip of the year. When I looked at the trip before hand the only games I thought that were sure wins for them were Atlanta and Portland. They lost both of those, but won two others (Denver & Sacramento), so I'd say they did as expected in my book. Philly still holds down the 7th seed in the East, but I think their grip on it is tenuous at best for two reasons.

The first is that Allen Iverson's mobility has obviously been affected by the right ankle sprain he suffered in the third quarter at Denver on 12/27. I have no doubt that he's going to play through it, but after seeing him noticeably limping against the Suns and Lakers, I have to wonder if a week off might be the prudent course of action this early in the season. Of course, standing up to AI has never been a strong suit of Sixers' management.

While Philly did just complete their longest road trip, the schedule really does not let up on them in the near future. They play some tough teams at home coming up, starting this week with: Seattle, Utah, Boston. The Sonics are still in the midst of the firing-of-the-coach-bounce, but the Sixers get them on the second night of a back to back. The Jazz are not a team Philly should beat in my mind. The Celtics' game should be a W, but with division games you never ever know. The Sixers' fortunes this week are going to depend on AI's health, but as usual, 2-1 will be good enough.

- The New Jersey Nets have won ten games in a row and are easily the hottest team in the league right now. The Nets (19-12) not only lead the Atlantic Division, but have vaulted themselves up to second place in the entire Eastern Conference. They've beaten some cupcakes in their current streak (@New York, Atlanta, & @Toronto), some mediocre teams (Denver, Golden State, @Orlando, & Orlando), but also some good teams too (Clippers, @Miami, & Cleveland).

NJ's wining streak started on 12/16, which not so coincidentally was the day after Richard Jefferson had a little talk with Vince Carter. RJ said to VC "Knock it off. You're a scorer, so score. Stop looking over at my side already." RJ on said talk, "Basically, it was, 'Look, do yours.' He has to stop worrying about the rest of us." Since then the Nets have been on a tear offensively averaging 104.5 points a game during their current winning streak. Carter has led them in scoring every game but one (12/27 versus Cleveland) over the same stretch posting a gaudy 33.5 ppg average. Included in this was his 51 point explosion in Miami on 12/23, and 42 yesterday in Toronto where he hit the game winning 3 pointer.

Jefferson has not disappeared during this time (he did lead the team with 28 points against Cleveland). What RJ has done is stepped into a more complimentary, all around player, defensive stopper, third fiddle role. During the streak (not including yesterday's game which he missed due to back spasms) he's put up 19 points on 58.8% shooting to go along 4.4 assists and 4.3 rebounds. Not to mention drawing the other team's best offensive player every night.

Jason Kidd? Well he may have lost a step (or two), but he's been up to the same old same old all season, streak be damned. However, don't think NJ's captain hasn't noticed the change in Richard's game. Says Kidd, "Patience and sacrifice. You got guys on this team that could average 25 or 30 points a night, call their number every night. RJ has been patient, he has waited his turn." That's what good team chemistry is all about in the NBA.

As for the club's league wide numbers and rank, they are decidedly middle of the pack in just about everything except opponent's field goal percentage (43.3%, 8th) and assists (22.9 apg, 5th). Give coach Lawrence Frank credit for the defense and Kidd is mostly responsible for the assists.

The Nets' long term prospects this season depend mainly on their big men. Jason Collins has been bothered all season by an inflammation of the peroneal nerve in his right leg. It's a weird thing that gives him major pain from his shin to his knee, and there's not really much he can do about it. More recently "Twin" has had to miss a few games with a sprained right ankle. Same leg, more problems? That can't be good. 17 year veteran Clifford Robinson is still serviceable, but not much more. Coach Frank has something against playing Marc Jackson regularly, so the burden of improved production falls to second year C Nenad Krstic.

I like Nenad's game a lot because he can score with his back to the basket (a talent that is becoming more and more rare) and has a nice touch from mid-range, but his defense and rebounding still need work. Being that NJ doesn't really lack scoring punch, how quickly Krstic improves those facets of his game will go a long way toward determining how good the Nets can be this year. Of course President Rod Thorn could always make a deal to bring in a big that could help. The Clippers' Chris Wilcox seems to be available and would fit in nicely with NJ's style of play.

Not like it's saying much, but I expect the Nets to win the Atlantic Division pretty handily. On the other hand, unless NJ finds someone to rebound consistently and provide a defensive presence down low, I don't really see them as true contenders for the Eastern Conference crown. Through 2/1 the Nets play 10 of their next 13 games on the road, so that will give everyone plenty of insight into how good they really are or aren't.

- On Tuesday, to no one's surprise, Seattle fired head coach Bob Weiss after a 13-17 start. From my Western Conference preview: "New coach Bob Weiss has a pretty unimpressive resume, to be kind. I just don't think he's going command the player's respect like Nate Mac did." And he didn't. From my Quarter Pole Review: "Seattle is dead last in the NBA in rebounding (38 rpg) and opponent's field goal percentage (49.3%). That is not a promising combination long term." Obviously Sonics' management agreed with me. I don't know what else to say about the guy, other then he's just not a very good head coach (223-299 lifetime record, 2-12 in the playoffs).

(Note to Weiss: In the future do not perform card tricks for your players on the team plane.)

Weiss' replacement for at least the rest of this season is Bob Hill. In other words, the bad cop to Weiss' good cop. Hill is a defense first guy with a reputation as being ultra prepared for games. So basically the polar opposite of the laid back Weiss. Hill's first move as head man was re-inserting Luke Ridnour into the starting lineup. He also benched Reggie Evans in favor Vladimir Radmanovic at PF. Then he decided to make French rookie Johan Petro his starting C, AND play him big minutes. His last move with the rotation was giving 20 year old C Robert Swift regular playing time. Hill is bold to say the least. He also completely revamped the way they practice (no more officials being one example), and surprise surprise, said he was going to stress defense and hold his players accountable for their effort level.

In the short term Seattle (14-19) will probably be a little better, but long term I just don't see them as a playoff team. They really are soft, and a coaching change won't make a difference in that with 49 games still to play. Then there's the on going saga that is Danny Fortson against the referees. Not to mention that Flip Murray, Radmanovic, and Evans are all looking to get paid elsewhere after the season. Oh yeah, and ownership is still trying to get a new arena so the franchise isn't constantly losing money on one of the worst lease deals in professional sports. The bottom line is that things are going to get worse for the Sonics before they get better.

- My boy Andrei Kirilenko had his third career 5x5 last Tuesday against the Lakers. A 5x5 is when a player tallies at least five in five statistical categories. AK-47 had 14 points, 9 assists, 8 rebounds, 7 blocks, and 6 steals. Keep in mind there have only been six 5x5's in the last twelve years, of which AK has three, and this was only the second time since 1973 that a player put up six or better in those five categories (Note: the NBA did not start keeping track of steals and blocks until 1973). I know many of you non-fantasy types out there are thinking "So what, numbers mean nothing." Well, I had the privilege of watching that game, and I watch Utah (17-17) a lot because of my crush on Kirilenko. Let me tell you non-believers out there something, those are not empty numbers.

AK-47 normally affects the game in so many ways, but when he is all over the place like that, he just wreaks havoc on the opposition. Plan and simple. He is thee best weak side/help defender in the NBA, and is good on the ball too. He swoops in from no where to block shots, and fly's in from anywhere for rebounds. He can break his man down off the dribble and get to the rim either for the finish, or to set up a teammate. He is constant movement on the court, always hustling, and can finish on the break or in traffic with ease. This year he has also assumed the role of "closer" for the Jazz. Which is nice to finally see from him because he had a tendency to be a bit too unselfish in the past.

Last season's debacle aside, Utah is 2-8 without him this year, and 15-9 with him. Those numbers speak for themselves. There is room for improvement in Andrei's game though. I'd like to see him bulk up some so he can body low post players better. He also needs to work on his jumper so he can hit it a with a little more consistency. I know I'm nit picking, but if does those two things, the sky is limit on how great he can be.

- On the injury front this week, the Cleveland Cavaliers (20-11) suffered a major blow. Starting SG Larry Hughes will be out for six to eight weeks after he had screws inserted into his broken right middle finger. Larry's numbers are down from last year, but his production on the court can't really be measured in numbers alone. He is just such a presence on defense that I wonder how the Cavs will be able to maintain their level on that end without him. Damon Jones has been starting for Hughes, with terrible results so far. Look for Ira Newble or Luke Jackson to get a chance if Jones continues to shoot blanks.

The New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets were hit a similarly devastating blow when rookie PG Chris Paul tore a ligament on the inside of his right thumb. Paul will be sidelined for at least two weeks. The Hornets (15-18) have a pretty good back up in Speedy Claxton (my wife's favorite name in the NBA since Ruben Boumtje Boumtje is no longer in the league), so they should be alright. However, if NO/OKC should go in the tank while Paul is out, you can pretty much hand him the rookie of the year award.

Emeka Okafor has missed the last eight games for the Charlotte Bobcats (10-23) with a sprained right ankle. "Mek" was supposed to return on Saturday, but didn't. He is still day to day according to the team. Melvin Ely had been filling in for him, but now he is out with the same injury. Rookie Sean May and C Jake Voskuhl are also both out with right knee injuries. This big man shortage has forced GM/coach Bernie Bickerstaff to start Gerald Wallace at PF.

Dallas Mavericks' starting SG Marquis Daniels will be for the next two weeks with a strained neck. The injury is more bothersome then serious, but it just won't seem to heal. Marquis was first hurt on a flagrant foul by Phoenix's Kurt Thomas on 12/15 and hasn't been right since. Dallas (25-9) has plenty of depth behind Daniels with Jerry Stackhouse and Adrian Griffin though. Even Jason Terry can slide over and play some SG in a pinch.

Word on the street is that Yao Ming's recovery is ahead of schedule. Even though he has to receive antibiotics in his left arm via an IV for another week, Yao has begun light workouts, and could be back in as soon as two to three weeks. That would be great news for Houston (12-20) because they are only 3-7 without him. For the record, Yao needed two surgeries to clear out the infection that had spread from right big toe into his bone.

NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser


Before I get into the Olympic preview let me give all the loyal readers of this space the best piece of free advice you'll ever get....don't ever do business with Days Inn. Long time MMM subscriber John Miller and I booked a room with Days Inn in Detroit so we could go to the Super Bowl. Since we booked so early we were quoted $85 a night. Then the Days Inn confirmed that rate to us a few months ago. Since then, after we bought non-refundable plane tickets, Days Inn has decided to screw us. They told us that they "couldn't find our reservations" but they would be more then happy to have us at their full Super Bowl weekend rate ($400 + a night plus tax). So basically we're screwed because $2000 for a stay in Detroit is too steep for us. Thanks Days Inn!!


Olympic Preview


- United States.....In the words of George Constaza "I got nothing Jerry, NOTHING!!!" This team might as well be a group of college kids playing the pros. The only intriguing aspect of the American team is the fact that they decided to take things in a different direction with the roster, namely they wanted to get younger. So no Tony Amonte, no John LeClair, no Brian Leetch, and amazingly no Jeremy Roenick. This is USA Hockey GM Don Waddell's way of giving Roenick a public kick in the arse in the town square because Roenick skipped playing for the US in the World Championships a few times and, even though Roenick campaigned to get on the Olympic team and probably deserved a bid, he was left out. In a great display of sour grapes, sore losing, and basically being a baby, Roenick said he would now cheer for the Canadian team because he was left off the American roster. Way to be a role model Jeremy!! It doesn't matter, with or without Roenick it would be a miracle if this team finished in the top 5.



- Finland.....A spunky squad in a Mugsey Bouges guarding Michael Jordan type of way, and they have a nice goalie in Miikka Kiprusoff but they're over matched. When I was looking at the names on their roster they definitely have a lot of vowels but not a lot of stats. Most of their roster isn't even in the NHL, most of their players are from the Finnish Elite League, an oxymoron if I ever heard one. On a sad note one guy that really made a name for himself playing in world tournaments is Teemu Selanne and this will probably be his international swan song.



- Czech Republic.....They have the NHL's best goalie (Dominic Hasek) and the NHL's leading scorer (Jagr) and a few other parts (Robert Lang and Milan Hejduk) and they could make a run but I doubt it. I just imagine the Czechs up against the Canadians and the Swedes and those two teams sending wave after wave of offense at them, there ain't no 4th line rests when playing those teams. I say bronze for them.



- Cherry Hill, NJ resident Kerry Fraser was voted the best referee in the NHL by the players. Of all the referees in the game Fraser received 33.3% of the vote.



- Canada.....The only question here is gold or silver. I kind of liked how they rewarded guys that paid their dues and kept 18 year old Sidney Crosby off the roster. The kid has played half a season in the NHL, let him play a few years before he gets a roster spot that almost guarantees him an Olympic medal. And I liked how Steve Yzerman and Mario Lemeuix stepped aside, admitting that they had their chance in the Olympics, and let other players play. As far as I can determine the Canadians only have one team that can really, really give them a run and it's.....



- Sweden.....Tons and tons of talent, tons and tons of international experience, and most of all now they have goaltending. Remember back in the day when the Swedes were throwing out ex-Flyer stiff Tommy Salo out there in international competitions? Well trust me, it happened. Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been helping to keep New York in the hunt in the east despite all their efforts to go into free fall. Lundqvist should be getting some play for rookie of the year but Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin are stealing all the headlines. It's true that I've seen rougher hombres on "Queer Eye For The Straight Guy" then on the Swedish defense but you have to remember that in the international game the ice is 200 feet by 100 feet as opposed to the 200 feet by 85 feet found in the NHL game so puck handling and speed are key and the Swedes have that in droves. The gold is their's to lose.



- So I'm watching the CBC broadcast of the Leafs/Oilers game last Saturday night and during the first intermission they had a story about a kid named Jayce Hawryluk. The CBC believes Hawryluk will be the next big thing in the NHL. Right now Jayce is tearing his league in Ontario to shreds and his coach believes that he is currently playing hockey at a 13 year old level. Ohhh...did I mention Jayce Hawryluk is 9 years old? That's the CBC for you.


- Before I talk about the Flyers I just want to make sure I give Flyer defenseman Chris Therien his own paragraph. Chris Therien is worst player that has worn a Flyers jersey in my memory. But I don't want to sell Therien short because he's worse then just your run of the mill bad player, it's like Therien doesn't even know the rules. I mean forget the devastating turnovers, the constantly being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and the all around lazy play, let's talk about penalties. Therien takes penalties that are so stupid they defy description. But the face of utter disbelief he shoots the refs after these penalties makes me believe that either Therien is a great actor or he doesn't know any of the rules of hockey. Therien takes penalties in the Flyers' offensive zone, he takes penalties with a few minutes left in one goal games, and he takes penalties against players that aren't any type of offensive threat. The guy is incredible. The Flyers brought up a kid named Randy Jones and if that kid has .0000001% the amount of the ability of your average chimpanzee he should get Therien's job as soon as some of the injured defensemen get back. Thank God.



- Since we last spoke the Flyers have lost all of one game and that was a shootout against the Capitals. And every game was a one goal game with the exception of another Capitals game and that would have been a one goal game but Forsberg scored an empty net goal with only few seconds left. And guess what....all of those games were on the road, the Flyers are on a franchise record 11 game road trip. The Flyers have more points then any other team in the NHL and are officially ON FIRE!! And the Flyers have been decimated by injuries but they have so many great minor leaguers that they step right in and they don't skip a beat (are you listening Eagles?). The Flyers are firing on all cylinders and Antero Niittmaki is playing out of his mind. I've seen a lot of games lately with a lot of teams and the Flyers will be very, very tough to beat for the remainder of the season especially when they get their injured players back. Watch out Philadelphia, it may be time for a parade.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Monday Morning Mehta 1/3/06

Edition # 147
January 3, 2006

Happy New Year to everyone. A new year means the NFL playoffs are set to begin. Let's break down each game this weekend (Ed Wasser is off today):

NFL

Washington @ Tampa (-2.5) - 4:30pm EST Saturday
Analysis: The hottest team in the NFL could be the Redskins. They come into the playoffs having won 5 in a row to get into the playoffs. They face a rematch with the South division winning Bucs who they lost to earlier in the year, 36-35 in a game where Jon Gruden went for a 2 point conversion late and succeeded for the victory. I expect a much lower scoring battle this time as the Bucs have a healthy Cadillac Williams. The injury to Shawn Springs should be of big concern to the Skins, as Joey Galloway has lit everyone this year. I think the Bucs defense will be the difference here, along with the home crowd.
Pick: Bucs 17 - Skins 13

Jacksonville @ New England (-8) - 8:00pm EST Saturday
Analysis: In what I thought was a great move by Jack Del Rio, coach of the Jags, Byron Leftwich was held out of Sunday's meaningless game vs. the Titans. Now the Patriots won't have any recent game film to watch Leftwich. But does that matter against Bill Bellichick? The defense is playing great once again, really sparked by Mike Vrabel and Teddy Bruschi in the middle of the 3-4 defense. This should be another relatively low scoring game, but I really like the Jags chances for an upset here. The running game is healthy, and the defense is ready to show their stuff. Byron Leftwich emerges as a top QB these playoffs.
Pick: Jaguars 23 - Patriots 17

Carolina @ NY Giants (-2.5) - 1:00pm EST Sunday
Analysis: I'm going to try and not let my hatrid for the Giants sway this pick. I've been in work for an hour and I'm already utterly annoyed with these Giants fans. Tiki Barber is amazing. To think that the Giants drafted a running back in the first round a few years back (Ron Dayne) and were mad they didn't get Shaun Alexander. Tiki's been amazing the last 8 weeks of the year and is only getting stronger. (BTW, there's no reason Brian Westbrook can't turn into Tiki Barber). The Panthers have been up and down the last month. The underlying story in this game is John Fox, the Giants ex-defensive coordinator. I really like Eli Manning, but just don't know if he's ready yet to win this type of game. The defense of the Giants is hurting badly, and Steve Smith and DeShaun Foster could take advantage of that.
Pick: Carolina 30 - Giants 20

Steelers (-3) @ Bengals - 4:30pm EST Sunday
Analysis: This is the only game this week in which the road team is favored. The Steelers are red hot coming into the playoffs outscoring their opponents 115-33 in the last 4 games. The Bengals come into the playoffs in cruise control and Carson Palmer gets his first taste of many at the playoffs. You'll hear this all week and it's true of every game, but more so of this one. Which team will play the style they want to? I think the home team does it with Chad Johnson having a huge game.
Pick: Bengals 31 - Steelers 23

Overall, I'm definitely sticking with my preseason pick of the Colts to make it out of the AFC. I think Jacksonville gives them the most problems, and Cincy would be a shootout, but I just don't like any of the other teams chances on the fast track in Indy.

My preseason pick in the NFC was the Eagles, and well, we all know what they're doing today. A few weeks ago I liked Carolina. While I still like them to make some noise, I just can't see them winning 3 road games to get to Detroit. Seattle has home field but it's too easy to pick the chalk. I'm going to pick an upset and go with the Bears out of the NFC. The Bears you say? This goes against all of my "QB's win road playoff games" belief, but keep in mind Chicago has a bye, they'll play at home the next week and will likely travel to Seattle the following week. I think the Bears could upset the Seattle in the NFC Championship game. The defense is really good and Rex Grossman gives the offense some life, and very little game film to watch.

Indy vs. Bears is the Super Bowl pick (at least I can't have either eliminated this week).

Eagles

The 2nd Annual Official 2006 Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Guide will be brought to you on January 30th. All Eagles analysis will be held off until then, I'm sure you're all very disappointed.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia (15-15) went 1-2 last week, which was pretty much expected. The Sixers started the week off with a nice win in Denver where they finished the game strong. That was not the case in their next two games as Philly was out scored 51-40 combined in the fourth quarter at Portland and Utah. Not being able to close games out is nothing new for the Sixers this year, but I found two very telling team stats that might explain why. The Sixers are 29th out of 30 teams in turnover differential (-2.6) and 23rd in rebound differential (-2.2). Not huge numbers, but if you are consistently turning it over more then your opponents are, AND getting out rebounded, that's not good.

The play of Chris Webber is my latest concern for Philly. I know he is averaging 19.6 points and 10.2 rebounds (9th overall) a game, but he is only shooting 43% from the field. That number puts him ahead of only John Salmons (42.2%), Kevin Ollie (38%), and Louis Williams (22.2%) on the Sixers. C-Web's average night shooting from the floor is 8 out of 18.7. Any way you slice it, that's not good for a club's second best player. I think the main reason for Webber's poor shooting is the amount of minutes coach Maurice Cheeks is playing him (40.2 mpg, 7th overall). For someone with a chronically bad knee all those minutes are eventually going to take their toll, if they aren't already.

This week brings Philly: @Sacramento & @Phoenix (back to back) then @Lakers to finish off their seven game road trip. The Kings are banged up, but they have won two in a row, and are playing with the desperation of a squad on the ropes, so the Sixers will have to be ready to match their intensity tonight. I don't really give Philly much of a chance against the Suns, but stranger things have happened. The game in Los Angeles on Friday will mark the return of Kobe Bryant from suspension. I suppose that could be good or bad for the Sixers, but I'm guessing "Ocho" comes out with a major chip on his shoulder against his former home town team. Again, any way the Sixers can get to 2-1 for the week will be great for them.

- Writing about the NBA's best team in MMM is probably well overdue, so here goes. The Detroit Pistons (24-4) have been the most dominating team in the league this season by far. If you play the Pistons slow and try to grind them, you have no chance because they excel at that style. If you play them up tempo and try to out run them, Detroit now has the offensive freedom to stay close and win those game in crunch time. Let's briefly go over their four losses.

11/19 @Dallas (82-119) - Nothing to be ashamed of.
11/25 Washington (114-120 in OT) - Ben Wallace missed a free throw at the end of regulation that would have won the game.
12/12 @Utah (78-92) - The second night of a back to back and third road game in four days.
12/31 @Cleveland (84-97) - Losing a division game on the road is going to happen.
You'll notice that the Pistons' average margin of defeat in their four losses is a whopping 17.5 points. What that tells me is if you catch them on a off night, and have good shooting night yourself, they can be beaten. Easier said then done, I know, but to have any chance against Detroit you have to run, make shots, and control the boards. Because if the game is close down the stretch, the Pistons have enough big game experience that they almost always find a way to win, no matter the circumstances.

Richard Hamilton leads the team in scoring again and has seen his average jump by three points (18.7 to 21.7 ppg). Rip's also shooting 50% from the field (44% last year) and 47.2% from 3 (30.5% last). No player has benefited more from new coach Flip Saunders' offensive style then Chauncey Billups though. Chaunc is having an MVP type season and should easily make his first All-Star team. He is second on the team in scoring (19 ppg), second in the NBA in assist/turnover ratio (4.27 a/to), fourth in the league in assists (8.4 apg) & free throw percentage (93.8%), and tied for fifth overall in 3 pointers made (63). People are down on Ben Wallace for some reason, but he is having the same type of year he always does (8.8 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 2.07 bpg). Where I see the difference is in the rest of the front court rotation, and it's not their offensive production either. Rasheed Wallace (8.2 to 6.6), Tayshaun Prince (6.3 to 4.9), and Antonio McDyess (5.3 to 4.1) are all averaging less rebounds per game then they did last season, and that's a problem.

Statistically speaking Detroit's offense has improved dramatically. The defense has fallen off some, but the question that won't be answered until the playoffs is can better offense offset the drop on D? Where the Pistons have really taken an unexpected step backwards is in the rebounding department.

Offense
'04-05 (rank) to '05-06 (rank)
Field goal percentage
44.4% (17) to 46% (8)
3 point percentage
34.5% (23) to 40% (2)
Free throw percentage
73.9% (23) to 75.6% (11)
Points per game
93.3 (24) to 99.4 (8)
Point differential
+3.9 (6) to +7.7 (1)
Assists per game
21.8 (12) to 23.7 (3)
Turnovers per game
13.1 (7) to 11 (1)

You can see from those numbers how Flip has had an impact by loosening up the reigns. The players all say to a man that they are having more fun on that end this year too.

Defense
'04-05 (rank) to '05-06 (rank)
Opponent's field goal percentage
43% (5) to 45% (17)
Opponent's 3 point percentage
33.8% (4) to 32.9% (4)
Opponent's points per game
89.5 (2) to 91.6 (7)
Rebounds per game
43.4 (4) to 41.1 (18)
Opponent's rebounds per game
39.6 (4) to 41.2 (14)
Blocked shots per game
6.06 (3) 5.64 (12)
Steals per game
7.02 (20) to 6.43 (24)
Opponent's turnovers per game
13.1 (22) to 12.7 (26)

The big drop in defensive FG% wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't coupled with an overall decline in rebounding. This is what makes Detroit vulnerable in a seven game series to me. Don't get me wrong, the Pistons will continue to roll in the regular season as long as none of their starting five misses significant time with an injury. It's just that they are more likely to run into a good defensive team in the playoffs, and if they have a couple of off nights shooting, their lack of rebounding will hurt them.

I didn't mention Detroit having a shot at 70 wins because it's not happening, period. They have too short a rotation and an injury to one of their top six is likely at some point. What astounds me most about the Pistons is that they are #1 in the league in fouls per game (19.6) by a full 1.5 fpg over San Antonio (21.1 fpg). Is it just a coincidence that the two best teams in league also get the benefit of the doubt from the officials? I think not.

- The Memphis Grizzlies (19-10) suffered a major injury last Friday when they lost starting PG Damon Stoudamire for the remainder of the season with a torn right patella tendon. Damon was their crunch time decision maker and was not afraid to take and make big shots when Pau Gasol was double teamed. Bobby Jackson's return was just in time for the Griz, but with his injury history (stretch out before games Bobby!), counting on him for the rest of the season is dicey at best. My boy Antonio Burks will now be counted on to produce regularly, and rookie Anthony Roberson will probably be called on some too. If Jackson can stay healthy, Memphis is still a playoff team, but if he goes down they will be in trouble.


Milwaukee Bucks' starting PG T.J. Ford will be out for the next two to three weeks with a sprained left foot. Even though Maurice Williams is having a career year, losing Ford is a serious blow to the Bucks (17-11). Neither of them is a great defender, but Mo shoots it much better then T.J. However, there is no replacing Ford's blinding speed with the ball and decision making in transition. T.J.'s injury is not supposed to be too serious, but with Milwaukee's lack of depth behind Williams, Ford can't get back soon enough.

The serious injuries just keep coming as Denver (15-17) loses starting C Marcus Camby to surgery on his broken right pinkie finger (pins inserted). The best case scenario has Camby back in one to two weeks, but his recovery time could be as long as a month. This is bad news for the Nuggets who have had to deal with Kenyon Martin being in and out of the lineup with a right thigh bruise and left knee tendonitis. Not to mention Nene Hilario already being lost for the season. The good news is that third year big man Francisco Elson has finally started to show some life by being a force on the glass and playing some defense. Not that Cisco can replace what Marcus does, but hopefully for Denver K-Mart's return to action is permanent this time. Nothing would help them more then that.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim's jaw was broken by an inadvertent elbow from Portland's Zach Randolph. At first it was feared that Reef would be lost for months, but after having his jaw wired shut doctors now think it will be weeks instead. Kenny Thomas will step into the starting lineup at PF for Abdur-Rahim and should do an adequate job. That's not all the bad news for Sacramento (12-17) though. Peja Stojakovic has missed three of the last four games with a bulging disc in his back. Anyone who's had back issues knows how temperamental they can be to heal. Rookie Francisco Garcia has been inconsistent at best starting in Peja's spot. Even with all the Kings' lackluster play and injury woes, they are still only two losses out of the eighth and final playoff seed in the West.

Quinton Ross has missed the last four games for the Clippers (17-12) with an inflamed nerve in his back. Ouch! Normally this would be not be a big deal since Ross is only a role playing defensive stopper, but with Corey Maggette out at least three more weeks with a small separation of a ligament between the bones in his left foot, suddenly Los Angeles is very thin at SF. Coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. went with a three guard lineup in their last game and had some success with it. The Clips do play seven of their next eight game at home, so it's not all bad. Ross should be back some time during the course of that home stand.