Monday Morning Mehta 1/3/06

Edition # 147
January 3, 2006

Happy New Year to everyone. A new year means the NFL playoffs are set to begin. Let's break down each game this weekend (Ed Wasser is off today):

NFL

Washington @ Tampa (-2.5) - 4:30pm EST Saturday
Analysis: The hottest team in the NFL could be the Redskins. They come into the playoffs having won 5 in a row to get into the playoffs. They face a rematch with the South division winning Bucs who they lost to earlier in the year, 36-35 in a game where Jon Gruden went for a 2 point conversion late and succeeded for the victory. I expect a much lower scoring battle this time as the Bucs have a healthy Cadillac Williams. The injury to Shawn Springs should be of big concern to the Skins, as Joey Galloway has lit everyone this year. I think the Bucs defense will be the difference here, along with the home crowd.
Pick: Bucs 17 - Skins 13

Jacksonville @ New England (-8) - 8:00pm EST Saturday
Analysis: In what I thought was a great move by Jack Del Rio, coach of the Jags, Byron Leftwich was held out of Sunday's meaningless game vs. the Titans. Now the Patriots won't have any recent game film to watch Leftwich. But does that matter against Bill Bellichick? The defense is playing great once again, really sparked by Mike Vrabel and Teddy Bruschi in the middle of the 3-4 defense. This should be another relatively low scoring game, but I really like the Jags chances for an upset here. The running game is healthy, and the defense is ready to show their stuff. Byron Leftwich emerges as a top QB these playoffs.
Pick: Jaguars 23 - Patriots 17

Carolina @ NY Giants (-2.5) - 1:00pm EST Sunday
Analysis: I'm going to try and not let my hatrid for the Giants sway this pick. I've been in work for an hour and I'm already utterly annoyed with these Giants fans. Tiki Barber is amazing. To think that the Giants drafted a running back in the first round a few years back (Ron Dayne) and were mad they didn't get Shaun Alexander. Tiki's been amazing the last 8 weeks of the year and is only getting stronger. (BTW, there's no reason Brian Westbrook can't turn into Tiki Barber). The Panthers have been up and down the last month. The underlying story in this game is John Fox, the Giants ex-defensive coordinator. I really like Eli Manning, but just don't know if he's ready yet to win this type of game. The defense of the Giants is hurting badly, and Steve Smith and DeShaun Foster could take advantage of that.
Pick: Carolina 30 - Giants 20

Steelers (-3) @ Bengals - 4:30pm EST Sunday
Analysis: This is the only game this week in which the road team is favored. The Steelers are red hot coming into the playoffs outscoring their opponents 115-33 in the last 4 games. The Bengals come into the playoffs in cruise control and Carson Palmer gets his first taste of many at the playoffs. You'll hear this all week and it's true of every game, but more so of this one. Which team will play the style they want to? I think the home team does it with Chad Johnson having a huge game.
Pick: Bengals 31 - Steelers 23

Overall, I'm definitely sticking with my preseason pick of the Colts to make it out of the AFC. I think Jacksonville gives them the most problems, and Cincy would be a shootout, but I just don't like any of the other teams chances on the fast track in Indy.

My preseason pick in the NFC was the Eagles, and well, we all know what they're doing today. A few weeks ago I liked Carolina. While I still like them to make some noise, I just can't see them winning 3 road games to get to Detroit. Seattle has home field but it's too easy to pick the chalk. I'm going to pick an upset and go with the Bears out of the NFC. The Bears you say? This goes against all of my "QB's win road playoff games" belief, but keep in mind Chicago has a bye, they'll play at home the next week and will likely travel to Seattle the following week. I think the Bears could upset the Seattle in the NFC Championship game. The defense is really good and Rex Grossman gives the offense some life, and very little game film to watch.

Indy vs. Bears is the Super Bowl pick (at least I can't have either eliminated this week).

Eagles

The 2nd Annual Official 2006 Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Guide will be brought to you on January 30th. All Eagles analysis will be held off until then, I'm sure you're all very disappointed.

NBA - Derreck Sura

- Philadelphia (15-15) went 1-2 last week, which was pretty much expected. The Sixers started the week off with a nice win in Denver where they finished the game strong. That was not the case in their next two games as Philly was out scored 51-40 combined in the fourth quarter at Portland and Utah. Not being able to close games out is nothing new for the Sixers this year, but I found two very telling team stats that might explain why. The Sixers are 29th out of 30 teams in turnover differential (-2.6) and 23rd in rebound differential (-2.2). Not huge numbers, but if you are consistently turning it over more then your opponents are, AND getting out rebounded, that's not good.

The play of Chris Webber is my latest concern for Philly. I know he is averaging 19.6 points and 10.2 rebounds (9th overall) a game, but he is only shooting 43% from the field. That number puts him ahead of only John Salmons (42.2%), Kevin Ollie (38%), and Louis Williams (22.2%) on the Sixers. C-Web's average night shooting from the floor is 8 out of 18.7. Any way you slice it, that's not good for a club's second best player. I think the main reason for Webber's poor shooting is the amount of minutes coach Maurice Cheeks is playing him (40.2 mpg, 7th overall). For someone with a chronically bad knee all those minutes are eventually going to take their toll, if they aren't already.

This week brings Philly: @Sacramento & @Phoenix (back to back) then @Lakers to finish off their seven game road trip. The Kings are banged up, but they have won two in a row, and are playing with the desperation of a squad on the ropes, so the Sixers will have to be ready to match their intensity tonight. I don't really give Philly much of a chance against the Suns, but stranger things have happened. The game in Los Angeles on Friday will mark the return of Kobe Bryant from suspension. I suppose that could be good or bad for the Sixers, but I'm guessing "Ocho" comes out with a major chip on his shoulder against his former home town team. Again, any way the Sixers can get to 2-1 for the week will be great for them.

- Writing about the NBA's best team in MMM is probably well overdue, so here goes. The Detroit Pistons (24-4) have been the most dominating team in the league this season by far. If you play the Pistons slow and try to grind them, you have no chance because they excel at that style. If you play them up tempo and try to out run them, Detroit now has the offensive freedom to stay close and win those game in crunch time. Let's briefly go over their four losses.

11/19 @Dallas (82-119) - Nothing to be ashamed of.
11/25 Washington (114-120 in OT) - Ben Wallace missed a free throw at the end of regulation that would have won the game.
12/12 @Utah (78-92) - The second night of a back to back and third road game in four days.
12/31 @Cleveland (84-97) - Losing a division game on the road is going to happen.
You'll notice that the Pistons' average margin of defeat in their four losses is a whopping 17.5 points. What that tells me is if you catch them on a off night, and have good shooting night yourself, they can be beaten. Easier said then done, I know, but to have any chance against Detroit you have to run, make shots, and control the boards. Because if the game is close down the stretch, the Pistons have enough big game experience that they almost always find a way to win, no matter the circumstances.

Richard Hamilton leads the team in scoring again and has seen his average jump by three points (18.7 to 21.7 ppg). Rip's also shooting 50% from the field (44% last year) and 47.2% from 3 (30.5% last). No player has benefited more from new coach Flip Saunders' offensive style then Chauncey Billups though. Chaunc is having an MVP type season and should easily make his first All-Star team. He is second on the team in scoring (19 ppg), second in the NBA in assist/turnover ratio (4.27 a/to), fourth in the league in assists (8.4 apg) & free throw percentage (93.8%), and tied for fifth overall in 3 pointers made (63). People are down on Ben Wallace for some reason, but he is having the same type of year he always does (8.8 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 2.07 bpg). Where I see the difference is in the rest of the front court rotation, and it's not their offensive production either. Rasheed Wallace (8.2 to 6.6), Tayshaun Prince (6.3 to 4.9), and Antonio McDyess (5.3 to 4.1) are all averaging less rebounds per game then they did last season, and that's a problem.

Statistically speaking Detroit's offense has improved dramatically. The defense has fallen off some, but the question that won't be answered until the playoffs is can better offense offset the drop on D? Where the Pistons have really taken an unexpected step backwards is in the rebounding department.

Offense
'04-05 (rank) to '05-06 (rank)
Field goal percentage
44.4% (17) to 46% (8)
3 point percentage
34.5% (23) to 40% (2)
Free throw percentage
73.9% (23) to 75.6% (11)
Points per game
93.3 (24) to 99.4 (8)
Point differential
+3.9 (6) to +7.7 (1)
Assists per game
21.8 (12) to 23.7 (3)
Turnovers per game
13.1 (7) to 11 (1)

You can see from those numbers how Flip has had an impact by loosening up the reigns. The players all say to a man that they are having more fun on that end this year too.

Defense
'04-05 (rank) to '05-06 (rank)
Opponent's field goal percentage
43% (5) to 45% (17)
Opponent's 3 point percentage
33.8% (4) to 32.9% (4)
Opponent's points per game
89.5 (2) to 91.6 (7)
Rebounds per game
43.4 (4) to 41.1 (18)
Opponent's rebounds per game
39.6 (4) to 41.2 (14)
Blocked shots per game
6.06 (3) 5.64 (12)
Steals per game
7.02 (20) to 6.43 (24)
Opponent's turnovers per game
13.1 (22) to 12.7 (26)

The big drop in defensive FG% wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't coupled with an overall decline in rebounding. This is what makes Detroit vulnerable in a seven game series to me. Don't get me wrong, the Pistons will continue to roll in the regular season as long as none of their starting five misses significant time with an injury. It's just that they are more likely to run into a good defensive team in the playoffs, and if they have a couple of off nights shooting, their lack of rebounding will hurt them.

I didn't mention Detroit having a shot at 70 wins because it's not happening, period. They have too short a rotation and an injury to one of their top six is likely at some point. What astounds me most about the Pistons is that they are #1 in the league in fouls per game (19.6) by a full 1.5 fpg over San Antonio (21.1 fpg). Is it just a coincidence that the two best teams in league also get the benefit of the doubt from the officials? I think not.

- The Memphis Grizzlies (19-10) suffered a major injury last Friday when they lost starting PG Damon Stoudamire for the remainder of the season with a torn right patella tendon. Damon was their crunch time decision maker and was not afraid to take and make big shots when Pau Gasol was double teamed. Bobby Jackson's return was just in time for the Griz, but with his injury history (stretch out before games Bobby!), counting on him for the rest of the season is dicey at best. My boy Antonio Burks will now be counted on to produce regularly, and rookie Anthony Roberson will probably be called on some too. If Jackson can stay healthy, Memphis is still a playoff team, but if he goes down they will be in trouble.

Milwaukee Bucks' starting PG T.J. Ford will be out for the next two to three weeks with a sprained left foot. Even though Maurice Williams is having a career year, losing Ford is a serious blow to the Bucks (17-11). Neither of them is a great defender, but Mo shoots it much better then T.J. However, there is no replacing Ford's blinding speed with the ball and decision making in transition. T.J.'s injury is not supposed to be too serious, but with Milwaukee's lack of depth behind Williams, Ford can't get back soon enough.

The serious injuries just keep coming as Denver (15-17) loses starting C Marcus Camby to surgery on his broken right pinkie finger (pins inserted). The best case scenario has Camby back in one to two weeks, but his recovery time could be as long as a month. This is bad news for the Nuggets who have had to deal with Kenyon Martin being in and out of the lineup with a right thigh bruise and left knee tendonitis. Not to mention Nene Hilario already being lost for the season. The good news is that third year big man Francisco Elson has finally started to show some life by being a force on the glass and playing some defense. Not that Cisco can replace what Marcus does, but hopefully for Denver K-Mart's return to action is permanent this time. Nothing would help them more then that.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim's jaw was broken by an inadvertent elbow from Portland's Zach Randolph. At first it was feared that Reef would be lost for months, but after having his jaw wired shut doctors now think it will be weeks instead. Kenny Thomas will step into the starting lineup at PF for Abdur-Rahim and should do an adequate job. That's not all the bad news for Sacramento (12-17) though. Peja Stojakovic has missed three of the last four games with a bulging disc in his back. Anyone who's had back issues knows how temperamental they can be to heal. Rookie Francisco Garcia has been inconsistent at best starting in Peja's spot. Even with all the Kings' lackluster play and injury woes, they are still only two losses out of the eighth and final playoff seed in the West.

Quinton Ross has missed the last four games for the Clippers (17-12) with an inflamed nerve in his back. Ouch! Normally this would be not be a big deal since Ross is only a role playing defensive stopper, but with Corey Maggette out at least three more weeks with a small separation of a ligament between the bones in his left foot, suddenly Los Angeles is very thin at SF. Coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. went with a three guard lineup in their last game and had some success with it. The Clips do play seven of their next eight game at home, so it's not all bad. Ross should be back some time during the course of that home stand.