Monday Morning Mehta 3/28/05
Edition # 112
March 28, 2005
Agenda: March Madness - AL Preview - NBA - "NHL" - Golf - NFL
March Madness
After the first day and a half of the NCAA tournament this year, I was very disappointed with the games. Since then, and in particular anytime West Virginia has taken the court, we've seen possibly the greatest stretch of college basketball in a very long time. The 4 games on Saturday and Sunday of this weekend were by far the best Regional Finals in my memory (not counting single memorable Regional Finals like Duke/Kentucky at the Spectrum).
Chicago Bracket
As predicted by most people (not me) Illinois advances to the Final Four with great help from the tournament committee. They pretty much played in their back yard each of the 4 games. What was a little concerning was seeing the overwhelming support for the Illini on Saturday as they were mounting their comeback. It was like a home game. Arizona was pretty much railroaded, but they blew a 15 minute lead late, can't blame the crowd for that. Game Note: Arizona, down 1 in OT with 18 seconds left. I hated the way Salim Stoudemire dribbled the ball slowly up the court, with no urgency in OT. He crossed midcourt and called timeout with 11.5 seconds left. They then waited too long to get off a shot and ended up taking a bad shot. When you are losing, it is imperative you get a shot off with a few seconds left and give yourself a chance for an offensive board. Bad job there.
Albuquerque Bracket
I should take heat here for not giving Louisville credit, but one has to ask how in the world the tournament committee had them ranked as a 4 seed. They missed the boat on this one. The Ville had a great record and played well the whole year and are the hottest team going into the Final Four in my opinion. Rick Pitino is an awesome college coach.
Syracuse Bracket
A bracket I actually got right! I had Wisconsin in the Elite 8 (Bracket Breaker!) and UNC, my winner, is still alive. UNC has all the talent in the world, and apparently, if you listen to the "experts" are playing great basketball. I don't see it. The way I see it, they just barely won both games this weekend, and I wasn't overly impressed in any game. Louisville has been much more impressive and played better teams in my opinion.
As for the Villanova Wildcats, if Allen Ray even plays to 50% of his capability this team is in the Final Four. The traveling call on Allen Ray was an absolute joke, but Nova had their chances all game. Playing with essentially 6 guys and playing lots of 4 guard sets, Jay Wright confused Roy Williams (not hard to do) and probably outcoached Williams as Nova jumped to a 30-19 lead. But Nova got cold late in the second half and UNC ended up taking a big lead. They fought and came within a point of an improbable comeback, but just couldn't get the last few points. I think Nova was a top 10 team at seasons end and this just about cements that.
Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry are going to be All-American candidates next year, and I expect Nova to be a top 15 team all of next year with a real chance at the Final Four and a championship.
Austin Bracket
As mentioned last week, this wasn't a classic deep Duke team, they were ready to be clipped and they were. Tom Izzo has proven he belongs in the top 3 coaches in the game today making his 4th Final Four in the last 7 years. He thoroughly outcoached Tubby Smith in the Regional Final in one of the craziest last seconds of regulation in the tournament.
National Semifinal # 1
Illinois vs. Louisville
I am going to go with the hot team here, and that is Louisville. There shouldn't be a shortage of scoring in the Final Four, but Illinois probably plays the best defense of the four teams. Still, Rick Pitino will find a way to beat the Illini.
National Semifinal # 2
UNC vs. Michigan St.
I have to stick with my winner and take Roy Williams and UNC here. I hate this coaching matchup because Williams always loses to these bigtime coaches. But if this is year for Roy to step up he has to put these demons aside. Sean May is a monster and I don't see anyone on MSU being able to slow him.
AL Preview
AL East
New York Yankees - 106 wins
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Kevin Brown. Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright are their scrub pitchers! The Yanks bullpen won't be their strong suit as in past years as Mariano Rivera isn't getting any younger (35) and Tom Gordon was awful last October. If not for a strong division this team could break the Mariners win record of 116 games. I expect A-Rod to possibly have his best season since 2000, which is saying alot since he won MVP in 2003.
Boston Red Sox - 96 wins
I generally think that after winning the World Series there is a major hangover effect. But the rest of this division is about a year away from competing seriously so Boston should rack of plenty of wins. The addition of Matt Clement will be good, and by years end Wade Miller will be the free agent pick up of the year.
Baltimore Orioles - 77 wins
Sammy Sosa's presence means nothing. He's overrated at this point in his career. He'll hit a lot of home runs in 8-3 games as he's done a lot the last few years. This team has a lot of pitching but they're all young. Still a few years away but great potential.
Toronto Blue Jays - 72 wins
Nothing to see here but to watch 26 year old Vernon Wells develop into an All-Star and a player to target in trades in two years as he's a free agent in three.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 64 wins
Nothing to see here but Lou Pinella freaking out and season ticket holder Dick Vitale screaming and yelling. Well, they have super stud prospects Scott Kazmir and B.J. Upton but they are both still years away.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins - 92 wins
Nobody is ready to dethrone the 3 time defending NL Central champs. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are youngsters who add offense to an otherwise pitching dominated team. Johan Santana will probably win Cy Young again.
Cleveland Indians - 86 wins
Probably a little higher win total than most expect, but I like this young group. Travis Hafner is an All-Star in the making and Juan Gonzalez will probably have a resurgence year in Cleveland.
Detroit Tigers - 81 wins
Now I'm just being crazy. But the Tigers have built an incredibly half decent team. Magglio Ordonez has a lot to prove and I think he will. This is a sleeper team this year.
Chicago White Sox - 73 wins
Mark Buerhrle is one of my favorite pitchers but after that there is little here. They traded away one of their better players (Carlos Lee) for a light hitting centerfielder (Scott Posednik). They also lost Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas is 72 years old and can't even make it to court for steroid hearings.
Kansas City Royals - 65 wins
Jose Lima is their ace. (That wasn't a misprint).
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 94 wins
The big news here is the new team name. What you read was accurate, "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim take on the...". What is wrong with these people? Anyway, Dallas McPherson is a Rookie of the Year candidate, Orlando Cabrera and Steve Finley give them some stability and the A's have really weakened their team.
Oakland A's - 91 wins
While this team has lost alot (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder), I still think Billy Beane knows players. Faith in him alone leads me to believe they'll be right in the thick of the AL West race. I also like Barry Zito, Rich Harden and Dan Haren as probably the best staff in the division.
Texas Rangers - 84 wins
Last years charge by the Rangers was improbable. They really haven't improved all that much and still have a problem with
pitching. Chan Ho Park is trying to get back to his 2001 form.
Seattle Mariners - 81 wins
Here's one of my sports mantras: "You can't go from being a bad team to a great team just by signing a couple of big name free agents" (unless they're top line pitchers in baseball). The Mariners made big splash by signing Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre in the offseason. Ichiro could score 250 runs this year with those guys behind him. This is a very competitive division, Seattle is still a year away.
So not many changes from last year in the AL. Don't expect the same in the NL. Next week, NL Preview, the much awaited Phillies win total, and the World Series winner...
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Philly had a great week going 3-0, vaulting them to the 7th seed in the East, and above .500 for the first time since 11/14 (4-3). Highlights included: Andre Iguodala having the first triple-double by a rookie since 2/28/04 against Detroit. Chris Webber going for his Sixer high in points (32) versus Toronto. Allen Iverson tying his career high in assists (15) against the Lakers. This upcoming week will tell us an awful lot about what the future holds for Philly. @Sacramento (B2B), @Phoenix, Dallas, @Boston is really going to show us what the Sixers are made of. 2-2 would be FAN-tastic.
- With just over 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, it's time for a breakdown of all the playoff races around the league.
EAST
Miami (53-18) is #1 and Detroit (43-26) is #2.
Boston (38-32) 5 home, 7 road, 3 back to back - I suppose there's still a chance that the Celtics don't win the Atlantic Division, but barring a total collapse, I think there's going to end up as #3.
These three teams are battling for seeds 4 to 6.
Washington (38-30) 8 H, 6 R, 4 B2B - The injury to Brendan Haywood is a big blow for the Wizards. Haywood fractured the tip of his left thumb on Friday against the Clippers and will be out 2-4 weeks. While Brendan's numbers don't jump off the screen at you (27.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg, & 56.1% FG), he currently leads Washington in +/- at +12.3. I'm not saying that he's anywhere near the Wiz' most important player, but combined with Antawn Jamison being out until at least early April, Washington will be missing 2/3 of their regular starting front line for most of the stretch drive. Home court in the first round is still possible, but I think the Wiz will end up at #5 when it's all said and done.
Chicago (37-31) 7 H, 7 R, 5 B2B - The Bulls continue to play defense, and coach Scott Skiles continues to show no favoritism by going with whoever is playing the hardest on any giving night. Utilizing your depth is only good when management has your back, and GM John Paxson certainly does in Skiles' case. If Chicago is able to stay healthy for the rest of the season, I like them to surprise, and sneak into the 4th slot. The 4/13 contest at Washington is going to go a long toward deciding who ends up with the final home court spot in the East.
Cleveland (35-32) 7 H, 8 R, 6 B2B - The Cavaliers fired head coach Paul Silas on Monday, along with his son Stephen. Silas went 69-77 as head man in Cleveland, and I can see why new owner Dan Gilbert wanted him gone. I'm not a big fan of Silas' coaching ability (355-400 career). His M.O. is he's good at getting a floundering team to play with discipline, but very soon after that, his confrontational style tends to grade on players. That eventually leads to him losing the team after alienating enough of them. Supposedly GM Jim Paxson and Gilbert alike didn't see "a consistent rotation or substitution pattern" and made the move because they "didn't see that changing" and that the coaching switch "put us in a better position to win". I don't think changing coaches with 18 games to go in the heat of a playoff race ever gives you a better chance to win, but I can understand Gilbert wanting to put his own stamp on the franchise. Hence why Paxson should start working up his resume, because I can't imagine he won't be the next shoe to drop. Interim coach Brendan Malone has moved Eric Snow into the starting lineup (over Jeff McInnis), and reduced Robert "Tractor" Traylor's role. Even with as good as LeBron James already is, I don't see those minor rotation changes as being enough to raise the Cavs any higher then #6.
These four teams are competing for seeds 7 & 8.
Philadelphia (35-34) 7 H, 6 R, 4 B2B - If the Sixers are able to go 2-2 this week, they will have a real solid shot to finish at #7 because their remaining schedule is not that tough. If Philly goes 0-4 this week, that will bring a whole bunch of teams back into the fray (maybe even New York and Toronto), and make the Sixers' road to the playoffs MUCH more difficult.
Indiana (35-34) 7 H, 6 R, 3 B2B - It's a testament to Rick Carlisle's coaching ability that the Pacers are still in the hunt after all they've been through. The word on the street is that Jermaine O'Neal may be back for the last few games of the regular season. Jamaal Tinsley's status is far less certain then JO's, but if Tinsley can get back before the playoffs, Indy will be the proverbial "team no one wants to play" in the post season. This team is far too resilient to miss the playoffs, and I like them to hold off the competition and grab #8 during the last week of the season.
Orlando (32-37) 8 H, 5 R, 3 B2B - Losing 6th man Hedo Turkoglu for the rest of the season with a broken left wrist really hurts the Magic's chances. Hedo was their 3rd leading scorer (14 ppg) and top 3 point shooter (38%), and although he plays no defense, Orlando is really going to miss the instant offense he provided off the pine. Say what you want about fired coach Johnny Davis, but the Magic are 1-4 under interim coach Chris Jent. Teams rarely lose solely based on poor coaching. They usually lose because they don't have enough talent, which is a lesson I hope rookie GM John Weisbrod is learning. After being one of the "feel good" stories earlier this year, I see Orlando missing the playoffs.
New Jersey (32-38) 6 H, 6 R, 2 B2B - There are some people out there (like reluctant MMM reader John Miller) that still think the Nets have a shot at the post season. Being 4 losses behind #8 means that the teams ahead of NJ are going to have to somewhat fall apart, while the Nets finish up on a tear. While I do like NJ's chances better then Orlando's, I just can't see it happening, but I've learned to never say never when it comes to the NBA.
WEST
The race for the top seed.
Phoenix (52-17) 9 H, 4 R, 3 B2B - The Suns should coast to the best record in the West with Tim Duncan possibly out for the rest of the regular season. The real question is, will coach Mike D'Antoni continue to play his starters big minutes to hold off Miami for the best record overall?
San Antonio (52-18) 5 H, 7 R, 4 B2B - I don't see how the Spurs can win the West having a tougher schedule then Phoenix, AND being without Duncan. Manu Ginobili is back, Brent Barry is starting to play some ball, and Nazr Mohammed is getting comfortable with his role, so I think SA still has enough to hold off Seattle for #2.
Seattle (48-21) 5 H, 8 R, 3 B2B - If the Spurs falter, the Sonics may be able to sneak up to #2, but I think Seattle is pretty much locked into #3.
Dallas (46-23) is number #4.
The most compelling playoff race to follow daily will be these five teams fighting for spots 5 to 8.
Sacramento (43-28) 5 H, 6 R, 1 B2B - Of these teams, the Kings have the 2nd easiest road the rest of the way, but they have been playing very inconsistently as of late. Mike Bibby is one of the most underrated clutch performers in the NBA, and seemingly wills Sacto to many 4th quarter come from behind wins. Peja Stojakovic will be the key for how well the Kings fare in the playoffs. I see Sacto finishing up at #6, and no lower.
Houston (42-28) 6 H, 6 R, 0 B2B - As long as Tracy McGrady stays in the lineup, I like the Rockets to finish up strong, and get the 5th seed. However, Juwan Howard will have to back for the playoffs if Houston is going to advance past round one.
Memphis (39-29) 7 H, 7 R, 4 B2B - Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, and Bonzi Wells are all back, but the Grizzlies are the team that could possibly fall out of the playoffs as I see it. The reason being, Memphis finishes up with a brutal stretch of games over the last 2 weeks of play (Den, @Tor, Mia, Cha, @Dal, @Hou, @Den, @SA, SA, Dal). However unlikely it may be, it's not out of the question that the Griz go 2-8 to finish the season. Obviously that's a worst case scenario, but coach Mike Fratello will have to have his team ready to go every night, and be smart about how many minutes he plays his key performers. I like Memphis to hold off Minnesota and grab the 8th slot.
Denver (38-30) 6 H, 8 R, 5 B2B - The Nuggets have gone 14-1 since the All-Star break, taking advantage of their home heavy schedule in the process. It ends now, as Denver is about to play 6 of 7 on the road, with the one home game being against San Antonio. The Nugs are tough to call. They've been so hot lately, that they are bound to cool off. Just how much is the question though? Enough that they probably won't be able to catch Sacramento or Houston, but I do see them passing Memphis to end up at #7.
Minnesota (37-34) 5 H, 6 R, 2 B2B - The Timberwolves actually have the easiest remaining schedule out of all of these teams, but 4 losses is a lot to make up in 11 games. Minne is going to need someone above them to really hit the skids, and then go at least 9-2 themselves, to have any shot at all of making the post season.
- Andrei Kirilenko's nightmare season finally came to an end on Thursday. He broke his left wrist in the first quarter of Utah's game against Washington, and is out for the rest of the year. Seems like a pretty fitting end for both him and Jazz' season. AK-47 played in 41 games this year, and averaged 32.9 mpg, 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 3.3 bpg (led league), 1.6 spg (led team), and shot 49.3% from the field. Not bad numbers, all things considered, but he is going to have something to prove next season. He is no longer the up and coming guy to watch out for. He's now a maximum contract player that is expected to carry his team. He already had plenty of detractors saying that he's not a true #1 option before this year. So if he has a slow start to next season, after this injury marred campaign, the honeymoon will officially be over, and people like me (his #1 fan) will be backpedaling trying to explain ourselves.
Top 10
1. Phoenix (2)
2. Miami (1)
3. San Antonio (4)
4. Dallas (5)
5. Seattle (6)
6. Houston (9)
7. Detroit (3)
8. Denver (10)
9. Memphis (8)
10. Sacramento (-)
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- Welcome to the NHL, it gets worse here everyday. Learn to live like an animal, nowhere is where we play. The NHL was forced to cancel the June draft because league rules dictate that a draft can't be held without a CBA. Considering the fact that there is a superstar available for the team with the number one pick by the name of Sidney Crosby who, by the way, is believed to have more skills then Peter Forsberg at that age I'd say this has a chance to quietly sneak up and be a time bomb/CBA deal breaker. The Penguins had a league worse 58 points at the end of the 2003 - 2004 season, you think Mario Lemeuix and GM Craig Patrick will stand back and watch that pick get awarded to say...the Blackhawks? HELL NO!!! Speaking of the Blackhawks they were tied with the Caps with the league's second worst record in 2003 - 2004 with 59 points, so who gets the second pick? I dunno....but it'll be zoo getting to the answer.Think either of those teams will give up that pick without a fight? Right now the NHL is like a sink full of dirty dishes at a frat house and this draft mess is just one more spoon.
- Rae Carruth was denied his attempt to get a new murder trial essentially eliminating his chance at an acquittal and being set free. Now what the hell is Al Davis going to do with that Rae Carruth Raiders' jersey he had made up?
- I am currently in the middle of trying to enact federal legislation to make it a felony punishable by death for anyone to use the phrase "what happens in (name a city), stays in (rename the city)." So use the phrase while you still can.
- I first saw this in Bill Simmons' column. Go to www.suns.comand click on the "Road Ramblings" blog from seldom used Phoenix Sun Paul Shirley. It's AWESOME!!! He makes fun of the Atlanta Hawks, "saying the Hawks are bad is like saying that living in Beirut would be exciting - true, but it doesn't tell the whole story. The Hawks are really, really bad". And he calls the style of play that is currently employed by the Memphis Grizzlies "evil". I can't do the blog justice. The fact that this is a current NBA player writing it makes it even better. Just check it out.
- As a rule whenever I'm watching the NCAA tournament and I have no vested interest in either team I generally root for the underdog, except this year when UW Milwaukee played. Why? Because UW Milwaukee coach Bruce Pearl is the worst thing a person can be....a snitch. Pearl ratted out the University of Illinois for recruiting violations 16 years ago when he was an assistant coach there. Despite being an educator Pearl never learned the two most important things in life..."never rat on your friends and always, ALWAYS keep your mouth shut".
- True story...the names have not been changed in order to mock and humiliate the guilty. A friend of mine named Kim lives in a building in downtown Philadelphia called The Phoenix. A few local celebrities live in The Phoenix and it was recently reported that Chris Webber moved into a penthouse apartment there. So last week Kim asks me 'did you ever hear of some basketball player called The Big Dog?' The mere mention of his name almost caused me to launch into a violent vomiting fit but I managed to hold it together and say 'yeah, I know who he is, his name is Glenn Robinson'. Without any hint or clue of my feelings for the guy Kim offers this, totally unsolicited 'I saw him in the gym (the gym in the building), I can't believe that guy is a basketball player. First of all he's chubby and all he did was the elliptical machine for like a minute or two, really slow, and then left'. I wish I could've video taped that workout, set it the song 'Eye of The Tiger', and broadcast it on NBA TV the night before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Golf - MMM
A very disappointing Players Championship due to the weather. Phil Mickleson is lurking around the top of the leaderboard and will probably make a charge but as of this printing we're only starting the 3rd round. Play may extend into Tuesday if weather is a problem today. My pick Vijay Singh looked pretty good until he got to the 18th tee on Saturday. Not one, but two shots into the drink. He's not out of it yet but it'll take a semi miracle.
NFL
Not too much going on around the league right now. Teams are preparing for the draft in a couple of weeks. There's one story that will start to become news which is fascinating, the Leonard Little story.
Little is scheduled to appear in court this week on allegations of drunk driving. Why is this a big deal?
Little (in October 1998) drove his Lincoln Navigator through a red light downtown and collided with a car driven by a 47 year old woman who was killed. In June 1999, Little admitted he had been drunk that night and pleaded guilty of involuntary manslaughter. He was sentenced to 90 days in jail, 1,000 hours of community service and four years of probation. Little was suspended by the NFL for four games.
A Missouri law passed in 2001 says a person accused of drunken driving can be charged as a persistent offender if there is a prior manslaughter conviction. So instead of facing a municipal ordinance violation or a state misdemeanor charge, which are common in DUI cases, Little is charged with a felony that carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison.
What makes this case even stranger, is that the brother of the woman killed in the car accident is a cameraman for the Rams. Imagine the thoughts running through the cameraman's head as he has to follow the man that killed his sister? Ouch. This guy will probably get off since he's got some big attorney's, but he should face stiff penalties from the NFL (he won't)...
March 28, 2005
Agenda: March Madness - AL Preview - NBA - "NHL" - Golf - NFL
March Madness
After the first day and a half of the NCAA tournament this year, I was very disappointed with the games. Since then, and in particular anytime West Virginia has taken the court, we've seen possibly the greatest stretch of college basketball in a very long time. The 4 games on Saturday and Sunday of this weekend were by far the best Regional Finals in my memory (not counting single memorable Regional Finals like Duke/Kentucky at the Spectrum).
Chicago Bracket
As predicted by most people (not me) Illinois advances to the Final Four with great help from the tournament committee. They pretty much played in their back yard each of the 4 games. What was a little concerning was seeing the overwhelming support for the Illini on Saturday as they were mounting their comeback. It was like a home game. Arizona was pretty much railroaded, but they blew a 15 minute lead late, can't blame the crowd for that. Game Note: Arizona, down 1 in OT with 18 seconds left. I hated the way Salim Stoudemire dribbled the ball slowly up the court, with no urgency in OT. He crossed midcourt and called timeout with 11.5 seconds left. They then waited too long to get off a shot and ended up taking a bad shot. When you are losing, it is imperative you get a shot off with a few seconds left and give yourself a chance for an offensive board. Bad job there.
Albuquerque Bracket
I should take heat here for not giving Louisville credit, but one has to ask how in the world the tournament committee had them ranked as a 4 seed. They missed the boat on this one. The Ville had a great record and played well the whole year and are the hottest team going into the Final Four in my opinion. Rick Pitino is an awesome college coach.
Syracuse Bracket
A bracket I actually got right! I had Wisconsin in the Elite 8 (Bracket Breaker!) and UNC, my winner, is still alive. UNC has all the talent in the world, and apparently, if you listen to the "experts" are playing great basketball. I don't see it. The way I see it, they just barely won both games this weekend, and I wasn't overly impressed in any game. Louisville has been much more impressive and played better teams in my opinion.
As for the Villanova Wildcats, if Allen Ray even plays to 50% of his capability this team is in the Final Four. The traveling call on Allen Ray was an absolute joke, but Nova had their chances all game. Playing with essentially 6 guys and playing lots of 4 guard sets, Jay Wright confused Roy Williams (not hard to do) and probably outcoached Williams as Nova jumped to a 30-19 lead. But Nova got cold late in the second half and UNC ended up taking a big lead. They fought and came within a point of an improbable comeback, but just couldn't get the last few points. I think Nova was a top 10 team at seasons end and this just about cements that.
Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry are going to be All-American candidates next year, and I expect Nova to be a top 15 team all of next year with a real chance at the Final Four and a championship.
Austin Bracket
As mentioned last week, this wasn't a classic deep Duke team, they were ready to be clipped and they were. Tom Izzo has proven he belongs in the top 3 coaches in the game today making his 4th Final Four in the last 7 years. He thoroughly outcoached Tubby Smith in the Regional Final in one of the craziest last seconds of regulation in the tournament.
National Semifinal # 1
Illinois vs. Louisville
I am going to go with the hot team here, and that is Louisville. There shouldn't be a shortage of scoring in the Final Four, but Illinois probably plays the best defense of the four teams. Still, Rick Pitino will find a way to beat the Illini.
National Semifinal # 2
UNC vs. Michigan St.
I have to stick with my winner and take Roy Williams and UNC here. I hate this coaching matchup because Williams always loses to these bigtime coaches. But if this is year for Roy to step up he has to put these demons aside. Sean May is a monster and I don't see anyone on MSU being able to slow him.
AL Preview
AL East
New York Yankees - 106 wins
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Kevin Brown. Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright are their scrub pitchers! The Yanks bullpen won't be their strong suit as in past years as Mariano Rivera isn't getting any younger (35) and Tom Gordon was awful last October. If not for a strong division this team could break the Mariners win record of 116 games. I expect A-Rod to possibly have his best season since 2000, which is saying alot since he won MVP in 2003.
Boston Red Sox - 96 wins
I generally think that after winning the World Series there is a major hangover effect. But the rest of this division is about a year away from competing seriously so Boston should rack of plenty of wins. The addition of Matt Clement will be good, and by years end Wade Miller will be the free agent pick up of the year.
Baltimore Orioles - 77 wins
Sammy Sosa's presence means nothing. He's overrated at this point in his career. He'll hit a lot of home runs in 8-3 games as he's done a lot the last few years. This team has a lot of pitching but they're all young. Still a few years away but great potential.
Toronto Blue Jays - 72 wins
Nothing to see here but to watch 26 year old Vernon Wells develop into an All-Star and a player to target in trades in two years as he's a free agent in three.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 64 wins
Nothing to see here but Lou Pinella freaking out and season ticket holder Dick Vitale screaming and yelling. Well, they have super stud prospects Scott Kazmir and B.J. Upton but they are both still years away.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins - 92 wins
Nobody is ready to dethrone the 3 time defending NL Central champs. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are youngsters who add offense to an otherwise pitching dominated team. Johan Santana will probably win Cy Young again.
Cleveland Indians - 86 wins
Probably a little higher win total than most expect, but I like this young group. Travis Hafner is an All-Star in the making and Juan Gonzalez will probably have a resurgence year in Cleveland.
Detroit Tigers - 81 wins
Now I'm just being crazy. But the Tigers have built an incredibly half decent team. Magglio Ordonez has a lot to prove and I think he will. This is a sleeper team this year.
Chicago White Sox - 73 wins
Mark Buerhrle is one of my favorite pitchers but after that there is little here. They traded away one of their better players (Carlos Lee) for a light hitting centerfielder (Scott Posednik). They also lost Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas is 72 years old and can't even make it to court for steroid hearings.
Kansas City Royals - 65 wins
Jose Lima is their ace. (That wasn't a misprint).
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 94 wins
The big news here is the new team name. What you read was accurate, "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim take on the...". What is wrong with these people? Anyway, Dallas McPherson is a Rookie of the Year candidate, Orlando Cabrera and Steve Finley give them some stability and the A's have really weakened their team.
Oakland A's - 91 wins
While this team has lost alot (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder), I still think Billy Beane knows players. Faith in him alone leads me to believe they'll be right in the thick of the AL West race. I also like Barry Zito, Rich Harden and Dan Haren as probably the best staff in the division.
Texas Rangers - 84 wins
Last years charge by the Rangers was improbable. They really haven't improved all that much and still have a problem with
pitching. Chan Ho Park is trying to get back to his 2001 form.
Seattle Mariners - 81 wins
Here's one of my sports mantras: "You can't go from being a bad team to a great team just by signing a couple of big name free agents" (unless they're top line pitchers in baseball). The Mariners made big splash by signing Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre in the offseason. Ichiro could score 250 runs this year with those guys behind him. This is a very competitive division, Seattle is still a year away.
So not many changes from last year in the AL. Don't expect the same in the NL. Next week, NL Preview, the much awaited Phillies win total, and the World Series winner...
NBA - Derreck Sura
- Philly had a great week going 3-0, vaulting them to the 7th seed in the East, and above .500 for the first time since 11/14 (4-3). Highlights included: Andre Iguodala having the first triple-double by a rookie since 2/28/04 against Detroit. Chris Webber going for his Sixer high in points (32) versus Toronto. Allen Iverson tying his career high in assists (15) against the Lakers. This upcoming week will tell us an awful lot about what the future holds for Philly. @Sacramento (B2B), @Phoenix, Dallas, @Boston is really going to show us what the Sixers are made of. 2-2 would be FAN-tastic.
- With just over 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, it's time for a breakdown of all the playoff races around the league.
EAST
Miami (53-18) is #1 and Detroit (43-26) is #2.
Boston (38-32) 5 home, 7 road, 3 back to back - I suppose there's still a chance that the Celtics don't win the Atlantic Division, but barring a total collapse, I think there's going to end up as #3.
These three teams are battling for seeds 4 to 6.
Washington (38-30) 8 H, 6 R, 4 B2B - The injury to Brendan Haywood is a big blow for the Wizards. Haywood fractured the tip of his left thumb on Friday against the Clippers and will be out 2-4 weeks. While Brendan's numbers don't jump off the screen at you (27.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg, & 56.1% FG), he currently leads Washington in +/- at +12.3. I'm not saying that he's anywhere near the Wiz' most important player, but combined with Antawn Jamison being out until at least early April, Washington will be missing 2/3 of their regular starting front line for most of the stretch drive. Home court in the first round is still possible, but I think the Wiz will end up at #5 when it's all said and done.
Chicago (37-31) 7 H, 7 R, 5 B2B - The Bulls continue to play defense, and coach Scott Skiles continues to show no favoritism by going with whoever is playing the hardest on any giving night. Utilizing your depth is only good when management has your back, and GM John Paxson certainly does in Skiles' case. If Chicago is able to stay healthy for the rest of the season, I like them to surprise, and sneak into the 4th slot. The 4/13 contest at Washington is going to go a long toward deciding who ends up with the final home court spot in the East.
Cleveland (35-32) 7 H, 8 R, 6 B2B - The Cavaliers fired head coach Paul Silas on Monday, along with his son Stephen. Silas went 69-77 as head man in Cleveland, and I can see why new owner Dan Gilbert wanted him gone. I'm not a big fan of Silas' coaching ability (355-400 career). His M.O. is he's good at getting a floundering team to play with discipline, but very soon after that, his confrontational style tends to grade on players. That eventually leads to him losing the team after alienating enough of them. Supposedly GM Jim Paxson and Gilbert alike didn't see "a consistent rotation or substitution pattern" and made the move because they "didn't see that changing" and that the coaching switch "put us in a better position to win". I don't think changing coaches with 18 games to go in the heat of a playoff race ever gives you a better chance to win, but I can understand Gilbert wanting to put his own stamp on the franchise. Hence why Paxson should start working up his resume, because I can't imagine he won't be the next shoe to drop. Interim coach Brendan Malone has moved Eric Snow into the starting lineup (over Jeff McInnis), and reduced Robert "Tractor" Traylor's role. Even with as good as LeBron James already is, I don't see those minor rotation changes as being enough to raise the Cavs any higher then #6.
These four teams are competing for seeds 7 & 8.
Philadelphia (35-34) 7 H, 6 R, 4 B2B - If the Sixers are able to go 2-2 this week, they will have a real solid shot to finish at #7 because their remaining schedule is not that tough. If Philly goes 0-4 this week, that will bring a whole bunch of teams back into the fray (maybe even New York and Toronto), and make the Sixers' road to the playoffs MUCH more difficult.
Indiana (35-34) 7 H, 6 R, 3 B2B - It's a testament to Rick Carlisle's coaching ability that the Pacers are still in the hunt after all they've been through. The word on the street is that Jermaine O'Neal may be back for the last few games of the regular season. Jamaal Tinsley's status is far less certain then JO's, but if Tinsley can get back before the playoffs, Indy will be the proverbial "team no one wants to play" in the post season. This team is far too resilient to miss the playoffs, and I like them to hold off the competition and grab #8 during the last week of the season.
Orlando (32-37) 8 H, 5 R, 3 B2B - Losing 6th man Hedo Turkoglu for the rest of the season with a broken left wrist really hurts the Magic's chances. Hedo was their 3rd leading scorer (14 ppg) and top 3 point shooter (38%), and although he plays no defense, Orlando is really going to miss the instant offense he provided off the pine. Say what you want about fired coach Johnny Davis, but the Magic are 1-4 under interim coach Chris Jent. Teams rarely lose solely based on poor coaching. They usually lose because they don't have enough talent, which is a lesson I hope rookie GM John Weisbrod is learning. After being one of the "feel good" stories earlier this year, I see Orlando missing the playoffs.
New Jersey (32-38) 6 H, 6 R, 2 B2B - There are some people out there (like reluctant MMM reader John Miller) that still think the Nets have a shot at the post season. Being 4 losses behind #8 means that the teams ahead of NJ are going to have to somewhat fall apart, while the Nets finish up on a tear. While I do like NJ's chances better then Orlando's, I just can't see it happening, but I've learned to never say never when it comes to the NBA.
WEST
The race for the top seed.
Phoenix (52-17) 9 H, 4 R, 3 B2B - The Suns should coast to the best record in the West with Tim Duncan possibly out for the rest of the regular season. The real question is, will coach Mike D'Antoni continue to play his starters big minutes to hold off Miami for the best record overall?
San Antonio (52-18) 5 H, 7 R, 4 B2B - I don't see how the Spurs can win the West having a tougher schedule then Phoenix, AND being without Duncan. Manu Ginobili is back, Brent Barry is starting to play some ball, and Nazr Mohammed is getting comfortable with his role, so I think SA still has enough to hold off Seattle for #2.
Seattle (48-21) 5 H, 8 R, 3 B2B - If the Spurs falter, the Sonics may be able to sneak up to #2, but I think Seattle is pretty much locked into #3.
Dallas (46-23) is number #4.
The most compelling playoff race to follow daily will be these five teams fighting for spots 5 to 8.
Sacramento (43-28) 5 H, 6 R, 1 B2B - Of these teams, the Kings have the 2nd easiest road the rest of the way, but they have been playing very inconsistently as of late. Mike Bibby is one of the most underrated clutch performers in the NBA, and seemingly wills Sacto to many 4th quarter come from behind wins. Peja Stojakovic will be the key for how well the Kings fare in the playoffs. I see Sacto finishing up at #6, and no lower.
Houston (42-28) 6 H, 6 R, 0 B2B - As long as Tracy McGrady stays in the lineup, I like the Rockets to finish up strong, and get the 5th seed. However, Juwan Howard will have to back for the playoffs if Houston is going to advance past round one.
Memphis (39-29) 7 H, 7 R, 4 B2B - Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, and Bonzi Wells are all back, but the Grizzlies are the team that could possibly fall out of the playoffs as I see it. The reason being, Memphis finishes up with a brutal stretch of games over the last 2 weeks of play (Den, @Tor, Mia, Cha, @Dal, @Hou, @Den, @SA, SA, Dal). However unlikely it may be, it's not out of the question that the Griz go 2-8 to finish the season. Obviously that's a worst case scenario, but coach Mike Fratello will have to have his team ready to go every night, and be smart about how many minutes he plays his key performers. I like Memphis to hold off Minnesota and grab the 8th slot.
Denver (38-30) 6 H, 8 R, 5 B2B - The Nuggets have gone 14-1 since the All-Star break, taking advantage of their home heavy schedule in the process. It ends now, as Denver is about to play 6 of 7 on the road, with the one home game being against San Antonio. The Nugs are tough to call. They've been so hot lately, that they are bound to cool off. Just how much is the question though? Enough that they probably won't be able to catch Sacramento or Houston, but I do see them passing Memphis to end up at #7.
Minnesota (37-34) 5 H, 6 R, 2 B2B - The Timberwolves actually have the easiest remaining schedule out of all of these teams, but 4 losses is a lot to make up in 11 games. Minne is going to need someone above them to really hit the skids, and then go at least 9-2 themselves, to have any shot at all of making the post season.
- Andrei Kirilenko's nightmare season finally came to an end on Thursday. He broke his left wrist in the first quarter of Utah's game against Washington, and is out for the rest of the year. Seems like a pretty fitting end for both him and Jazz' season. AK-47 played in 41 games this year, and averaged 32.9 mpg, 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 3.3 bpg (led league), 1.6 spg (led team), and shot 49.3% from the field. Not bad numbers, all things considered, but he is going to have something to prove next season. He is no longer the up and coming guy to watch out for. He's now a maximum contract player that is expected to carry his team. He already had plenty of detractors saying that he's not a true #1 option before this year. So if he has a slow start to next season, after this injury marred campaign, the honeymoon will officially be over, and people like me (his #1 fan) will be backpedaling trying to explain ourselves.
Top 10
1. Phoenix (2)
2. Miami (1)
3. San Antonio (4)
4. Dallas (5)
5. Seattle (6)
6. Houston (9)
7. Detroit (3)
8. Denver (10)
9. Memphis (8)
10. Sacramento (-)
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- Welcome to the NHL, it gets worse here everyday. Learn to live like an animal, nowhere is where we play. The NHL was forced to cancel the June draft because league rules dictate that a draft can't be held without a CBA. Considering the fact that there is a superstar available for the team with the number one pick by the name of Sidney Crosby who, by the way, is believed to have more skills then Peter Forsberg at that age I'd say this has a chance to quietly sneak up and be a time bomb/CBA deal breaker. The Penguins had a league worse 58 points at the end of the 2003 - 2004 season, you think Mario Lemeuix and GM Craig Patrick will stand back and watch that pick get awarded to say...the Blackhawks? HELL NO!!! Speaking of the Blackhawks they were tied with the Caps with the league's second worst record in 2003 - 2004 with 59 points, so who gets the second pick? I dunno....but it'll be zoo getting to the answer.Think either of those teams will give up that pick without a fight? Right now the NHL is like a sink full of dirty dishes at a frat house and this draft mess is just one more spoon.
- Rae Carruth was denied his attempt to get a new murder trial essentially eliminating his chance at an acquittal and being set free. Now what the hell is Al Davis going to do with that Rae Carruth Raiders' jersey he had made up?
- I am currently in the middle of trying to enact federal legislation to make it a felony punishable by death for anyone to use the phrase "what happens in (name a city), stays in (rename the city)." So use the phrase while you still can.
- I first saw this in Bill Simmons' column. Go to www.suns.com
- As a rule whenever I'm watching the NCAA tournament and I have no vested interest in either team I generally root for the underdog, except this year when UW Milwaukee played. Why? Because UW Milwaukee coach Bruce Pearl is the worst thing a person can be....a snitch. Pearl ratted out the University of Illinois for recruiting violations 16 years ago when he was an assistant coach there. Despite being an educator Pearl never learned the two most important things in life..."never rat on your friends and always, ALWAYS keep your mouth shut".
- True story...the names have not been changed in order to mock and humiliate the guilty. A friend of mine named Kim lives in a building in downtown Philadelphia called The Phoenix. A few local celebrities live in The Phoenix and it was recently reported that Chris Webber moved into a penthouse apartment there. So last week Kim asks me 'did you ever hear of some basketball player called The Big Dog?' The mere mention of his name almost caused me to launch into a violent vomiting fit but I managed to hold it together and say 'yeah, I know who he is, his name is Glenn Robinson'. Without any hint or clue of my feelings for the guy Kim offers this, totally unsolicited 'I saw him in the gym (the gym in the building), I can't believe that guy is a basketball player. First of all he's chubby and all he did was the elliptical machine for like a minute or two, really slow, and then left'. I wish I could've video taped that workout, set it the song 'Eye of The Tiger', and broadcast it on NBA TV the night before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Golf - MMM
A very disappointing Players Championship due to the weather. Phil Mickleson is lurking around the top of the leaderboard and will probably make a charge but as of this printing we're only starting the 3rd round. Play may extend into Tuesday if weather is a problem today. My pick Vijay Singh looked pretty good until he got to the 18th tee on Saturday. Not one, but two shots into the drink. He's not out of it yet but it'll take a semi miracle.
NFL
Not too much going on around the league right now. Teams are preparing for the draft in a couple of weeks. There's one story that will start to become news which is fascinating, the Leonard Little story.
Little is scheduled to appear in court this week on allegations of drunk driving. Why is this a big deal?
Little (in October 1998) drove his Lincoln Navigator through a red light downtown and collided with a car driven by a 47 year old woman who was killed. In June 1999, Little admitted he had been drunk that night and pleaded guilty of involuntary manslaughter. He was sentenced to 90 days in jail, 1,000 hours of community service and four years of probation. Little was suspended by the NFL for four games.
A Missouri law passed in 2001 says a person accused of drunken driving can be charged as a persistent offender if there is a prior manslaughter conviction. So instead of facing a municipal ordinance violation or a state misdemeanor charge, which are common in DUI cases, Little is charged with a felony that carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison.
What makes this case even stranger, is that the brother of the woman killed in the car accident is a cameraman for the Rams. Imagine the thoughts running through the cameraman's head as he has to follow the man that killed his sister? Ouch. This guy will probably get off since he's got some big attorney's, but he should face stiff penalties from the NFL (he won't)...
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 8:23 AM
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