Monday Morning Mehta 4/23/07
Edition # 202
April 23, 2007
NEXT MMM: Monday May 7th. From now and then you'll have the NFL Draft and the Kentucky Derby.
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Phillies
The Phillies now stand at 6-11 after putting together thier first back to back wins of the year. Let's break down the first couple of weeks:
- Another terrible April. The Phillies love doing this. They start off like crap, get the fans all pissed off, then start winning and get upset at the fans for getting all bitter. If the Phillies and their fans were husband and wife it would've already ended in divorce or in OJ Simpson type fashion decades ago.
- Won 3 out of last 4. So I'm not sure whether today I need to take a "Here comes a hot streak" tactic, or say "They're buried". It's way too long of a season to get too bent out of shape, so I'll take the "Here comes a hot streak" tactic.
- The Phils have the next 7 games at home including 3 against the lowly Nats. Weather is heating up which means Utley and Howard will start hitting.
- Starting pitching has been solid most of the year and exceptional as of late.
- I hate the decision to make Brett Myers a setup man. If he closes, that's a completely different argument. I still would rather have him as a starter, but I can understand the need to put him in the closers role.
- Jon Lieber needs a few more good starts. We gotta get a reliever for him and move Myers back into the rotation. I hope the Phils don't fall in love with him as a closer.
- This version of the Phillies, overall, looks eerily similar on offense to years past. Lots of men left on base, not much from the lower part of the order, and even Roward hitting well in April.
- Pitching wins. If the Phillies can clean up thier bullpen, they'll be fine the rest of the year even with the woeful hitting with RISP.
- Key offensive player this year - Wes Helms. The Phils gotta get some power from their third baseman this year now that they have less power in the outfield.
Around the League
The Red Sox sweep the starting pitching deprived Yankees. The series started off bad for the Yanks as Mariano came into the 8th inning and blew a save on Friday night. The Yankees will win a lot of games in the summer months with their offense, but this starting pitching is just sad right now. Chase Wright?? I thought somebody was messing up Jaret Wrights name. Jeff Karstens? Kei Iwaga? Sad. Jon Lieber would be their ace! (OK they still have Pettitte but still)
The Braves taking 2 out of 3 over the Mets in Shea is the biggest story out of the NL. That's 4-2 against their divisional rivals. The Phillies are going to have their work cut out with the way the Braves and Mets are playing.
I really like the Brewers chances this year.
I can't believe the Giants have won 5 in a row. If the Giants can climb back to .500, so can the Phillies.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- OK people settle down. This is going to be quick because it's Sunday, 80 degrees and sunny, perfect weather for sitting in a dark bar and drinking beer all day and watching the Phillies. So here is my end of the year report card for the Flyers.
- Management, FFF.....Even Bobby Clarke knew that he did such a tinkle poor job that he needed to go. The Forsberg trade was really good, yet the move to get Todd Fedoruk back was asinine. The real test of Paul Holmgren will be when the free agent season opens. He'll have a ton of money to spend plus he has the luxury of seeing Bobby Clarke's mistakes
- Coaching, FFFFF.....John Stevens acts more timid behind the bench then the guy who walked into the house naked on "To Catch A Predator". I'm not saying that he won't be a good coach someday but let him learn behind someone else's bench and then come back. I think the Flyers will rue the day they unloaded Ken Hitchcock.
- Simon Gagne, A.....He was the only player that looked like he gave a crud all year long. He had 41 goals on a team that probably couldn't beat the Albany River Rats.
- Young players, FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.....Jeff Carter and Mike Richards were awful. They were looking for them to step up and score and....well, they're still looking. R.J. Umberger was OK, he had an occasional good game. Defenseman Joni Pitkanen was absolutely terrible. I mean really, really terrible. Pitkanen was so bad the Flyers are thinking of unloading him even though a fast, puck moving defenseman is a luxury.
- Goaltending, FFFFFFFF.....The Flyers were dying to give Antero Niittymaki the starting job but he went down faster then Paris Hilton at George Clooney's house after 3 champagnes. (HEY YO!!!) Robert Esche was his usual mediocre, he thinks he's way better then he really is, self. The jury is still out on Martin Biron. Biron probably got here thinking it couldn't be as bad as he thought, only to find out it's worse. But he'll be around for a while so let's see how he handles a full year as the full time goalie.
- Defense, FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.....The worst defensive unit I've ever seen. Yes I know that they had pretty good penalty killing but don't let that fool you, as a whole they were dreadful. I don't even know what happened to Mike Rathje. I think he was so incredibly bad and getting booed so mercilessly that the Flyers just told him to get lost and they'll send him his paycheck. The aforementioned Joni Pitkanen was awful, Denis Gautier only cares about hitting people at the expense of his positioning, Jussi Timonen only played in 14 games and yet managed to be a -10, and defensive scoring was nonexistent. I know I was tough on Derian Hatcher, which he richly deserved, but at least he was trying which is more then I can say for a few of these guys.
- The fans, A+.....I can't believe that 19,000 fans showed up to watch that slop night after night. They all deserve a personal thank you from Flyer management not to mention a rebate. Flyers games are a strange phenomenon in that even if you get free tickets somehow you spend $50. So I'll give them credit for filling the building.
- OK, so I'm off to wet my whistle. I'll have some news on the playoffs in two weeks.
NBA - Derreck Sura
This year's tap dancing segment is the smallest it's ever been since I started covering the NBA full time mid-way through the 2002-03 season. I ended up missing only one team per conference for a grand total of 14 out of 16 playoff teams.
EAST
I had in…
6. Indiana (35-47) – I should have taken the shootout outside that strip club in training camp as a sign of things to come. Nothing went right for the Pacers this season. From Jermaine O'Neal, Jamaal Tinsley & Marquis Daniels being injured, to the trade for Troy Murphy & Mike Dunleavy Jr., to coach Rick Carlisle losing control of the locker room. It all went from bad to worse in a hurry. Losing 11 straight games from 2/23 to 3/14 pretty much sealed their fate.
I had out…
11. Toronto (47-35) – I mentioned in my Eastern preview that I liked the looks of the Raptors roster on paper, but thought they were still at least a year away. As it turned out, T-Dot came together faster than anyone expected, so I really don't feel all that bad about missing on them.
WEST
I had in…
7. Clippers (40-42) – This has to be the most disappointing squad in the NBA for a variety of reasons. It's easy to blame the injures to Sam Cassell & Shaun Livingston, but it's deeper than that. Elton Brand got off to an extremely slow start, Corey Maggette feuded with coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. and Tim Thomas reverted to his non-contract-year form. The biggest thing for me though was their inconsistent effort as a team. For evidence you need look no further then their home loss to a floundering Sacramento club in the third to last game of the season.
I had out…
12. Golden State (42-40) – Again, I don't feel too bad about missing on the Warriors because they weren't a playoff team until they pulled off the biggest trade of the season. If I messed up on anything it's that coach Don Nelson definitely still knows how to win games in the association.
All-Defense Team
PG – Kirk Hinrich (Chicago)
SG – Anthony Parker (Toronto)
SF – Shane Battier (Houston)
PF – Jermaine O'Neal (Indiana)
C – Marcus Camby (Denver
Sixth Man of the Year
1. Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix)
2. Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)
3. Matt Harpring (Utah)
Executive of the Year
1. Bryan Colangelo (Toronto)
2. Chris Mullin (Golden State)
3. John Paxson (Chicago)
Coach of the Year
1. Sam Mitchell (Toronto)
2. Jerry Sloan (Utah)
3. Avery Johnson (Dallas)
Rookie of the Year
1. Brandon Roy (Portland)
2. Andrea Bargnani (Toronto)
3. Paul Millsap (Utah)
All-Rookie Team
PG – Rajon Rondo (Boston)
SG – Brandon Roy (Portland)
SF – Andrea Bargnani (Toronto)
PF – Paul Millsap (Utah)
C – LeMarcus Aldridge (Portland)
Most Valuable Player
1. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
2. Steve Nash (Phoenix)
3. Tim Duncan (San Antonio)
4. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
5. Tracy McGrady (Houston)
All-NBA
PG – Steve Nash (Phoenix)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – Tracy McGrady (Houston)
PF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio)
Second Team
PG – Gilbert Arenas (Washington)
SG – LeBron James (Cleveland)
SF – Chris Bosh (Toronto)
PF – Carlos Boozer (Utah)
C – Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)
Third Team
PG – Jason Kidd (New Jersey)
SG – Vince Carter (New Jersey)
SF – Kevin Garnett (Minnesota)
PF – Elton Brand (Clippers)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)
– Don't forget to check out my blog for daily updates throughout the post season!
Monday Morning Mehta 4/9/07
Edition # 201
April 9, 2007
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www.nba-jam.blogspot.com
Phillies
The Phils start thier season in impressively bad fashion by going 1-5, just like last year. Not many positives from the past week but let's try to do some +'s and -'s.
Negatives:
- Ryan Madson. Madson was the first player in like 800 years to be the losing pitcher in each of the first two games of the season (both in extra innings). And this is our top set up man? Crikey.
- Ryan Howard. Yes he's got his share of walks but he's hitting .217 and is struggling. I've always said home runs hitters are streaky so this is nothing to worry about. Once he gets hot he'll have weeks where he hit 4/5 homers. I'm not even remotely worried about Howard.
- Adam Eaton. I think the Phillies 3-4-5 can outpitch most teams 3-4-5 and that over the course of a season will help the Phillies make the playoffs, unless Adam Eaton pitches like he did Thursday. That was awful.
Positives:
- Jimmy Rollins. Not the 3 homers (the inside the parker on Friday night was awesome), but the 7 walks this week. Jimmy is showing much more smarts at the plate so far this year. I like it.
- Pat Burrell. Burrell's hitting .381 and looks like we may have the 2005 version this year. In the "Pat Burrell is the only player on the Phillies that is judged by this" category, his average with runners in scoring position (RISP) is as Harry Kalas would call it "a lusty" .800.
I think Charlie Manuel's job is in jeopardy in the next three weeks. If the Phils don't turn it around by the end of the month and really start hitting stride, he's going to get the axe. Gillick can't fire the players, so some thing's gotta give. The owners won't like it, and it may not be his fault, but a wake up call could be in order.
Around the League
Alex Rodriguez's walk off grand slam was the highlight of the week. For those who haven't figured it out yet, A-Rod is going to have a monster year this year in his option year of his contract. I think Alex's dream is a monster regular season, monster postseason leading to a World Series, then saying eff you to NY and heading to Chicago to play for Lou Pinella.
The NL has 3 awful teams: San Fran, Houston and Washington. If the Phillies don't take 12 out of 18 against the Nats they should be ashamed of themselves. Houston is a debacle. And San Fran's offense is Barry Bonds surrounded by platoon players.
Did it really snow 3 straight days in Cleveland? Grady Sizemore made Peter Gammons look like a genius after 3 games (Gammons proclaimed in February he'd win AL MVP).
Dice K fever is running rampant. I get the feeling hitters are going to get tired real quick about hearing how great this guy is. Even Royals players looked annoyed.
Masters on CBS
I forgot to make a non-Tiger pick last week but would've chose Zach Johnson if I had!
On an exciting but anti-climactic weekend at the Masters on CBS, Zach Johnson stuns the golf world by winning his 2nd tournament. I didn't say 2nd major, I said 2nd tournament. This was clearly an example of Tiger having a non-Tiger like week and Zach just having a brilliant back nine on Sunday to win the tournament. Is he a one hit wonder never to be heard from again? I doubt it. But I don't see him rattling off multiple majors. Think Mike Wier. He'll be a solid player for years to come.
As for Tiger, he just didn't have it all together. As usual Tiger knows himself more than anyone, and while people will look at the shot into the water on 15 as his downfall, Tiger knows it was the bogey-bogey finishes on Thursday and Saturday which turned excellent rounds into Phil Mickleson type rounds, that led to his t-2nd place finish.
And so goes another year, and Tiger Woods will not get the Grand Slam. It's gonna happen one of these years, he's so close.
Next major: June, US Open.
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- I'm back from Tampa were I attended the March 31st exhibition game between the New York Mets and "YOUR TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS!!!" (A small smattering of applause/golf clap breaks out way off in the distance) The Rays have a very unique marketing strategy to help them dig out of their league worst attendance problems; they mix horrific baseball with an almost impossibly unpleasant experience at the ballpark. Even when the Cubs were at their worst they made sure, as they still do, that everyone has fun at Wrigley. Not so much at Tropicana Field.
Let's start with this....the parking lots closest to the stadium, despite having plenty of empty spaces, were closed. Why? Who freaking knows. So although we left with time to spare we almost missed the beginning of the game because we were looking for a parking space. But the worst part was, and I'll be immensely generous here, there were maybe, MAYBE 4000 fans there. The entire upper deck of Trop Field was closed. Even with the sparse crowd parking was a mess. And the one idiot parking attendant was parking 3 cars in a line so if you were the middle car and you wanted to leave early you'd better hope either the car in front of you or the car in back of you had already left or you'd be trapped.
After the first inning I decided to get myself a hot dog and a sarsaparilla. Well Trop Field was not only woefully understaffed outside the park, it was far worse inside. (Side note....my biggest pet peeve in the world are businesses that make it difficult for me to give them my money) So I had to wait in line for 2 innings, missing a home run and a multi run inning, because Trop Field only had about 7 total employees (median age of about 103) working at the concession stands. Again, their were only about 4000 people there, how could they be overwhelmed?
Keeping with the bad experience....even though Trop Field has video screens nobody was manning them. Want to see a replay of a home run? Triple? Close play? Tough crap pal!!! But the real ridiculous part was that they had a girl in the stands on a microphone asking trivia questions to kids for prizes. The questions were like "Who was the Devil Rays first opponent at Trop Field? A.) Atlanta Braves B.) Montréal Expos C.) Florida Marlins". But since there was no video screens the kid answering the question couldn't see the question, the choices, and we couldn't see the kid.
So why in the world would anybody buy Devil Rays tickets, let alone season tickets? I guess to see crap baseball after desperately trying to find an open parking lot while dying of hunger and thirst while gripping a fistful of money that no Devil Ray concession person is interested in taking. That my friends is why the Devil Rays are the Devil Rays.
- The Flyers season has mercifully came to end. I feel like I just got back from Vietnam. WHERE'S MY PARADE!?!?! Anyway, if I can muster the energy I'll do a report card next week. I'll just everybody an F and determine just how many F's each guy deserves.
- So in keeping with my promise, here are the NHL playoff teams and the 80's hair metal band that most relates to them.....
- Buffalo Sabres (Van Halen) - Van Halen with David Lee Roth was an unstoppable force that rocked the foundation of the world. But then Sammy Hagar appeared on the scene and squashed their legacy. The Sabres are an incredible team, totally balanced in every area, and not only able to beat any team on any given night, they're able to destroy any team in the NHL. But just like the way Van Halen destroyed the band with Sammy, the Sabres are destroying themselves with their relentless, almost embarrassingly cheap ownership. The Sabres already know that Chris Drury will be gone in the summer, as will Daniel Briere, and it casts a shadow of doom over the team. The Sabres are cheap and proud of it. And this is Buffalo we're talking about....home of sports blunder after sports blunder. So they should win but there is the Scott Norwood curse always hovering.
- Anaheim Ducks (Motley Crue) - I love Motley Crue. I mean LOVE Motley Crue. But they were always a band capable of doing something incredibly stupid on occasion. Like replacing Tommy Lee with a girl drummer and replacing Vince Neil with John Corabi. Albeit they were brief moves but dumb moves nevertheless. I like Jean Sebastian Giguere, I like Teemu Selanne, I like Chris Pronger, and I really like Scott Niedermayer but the Ducks are capable of throwing in some really bad games sometimes. 2 weeks ago they lost back to back games to the Kings and the Coyotes, 2 really awful teams. So they should win it all, and still might, if they don't lose interest along the way.
- Detroit Red Wings (Kiss) - How long have the Red Wings been great? It's been like 15 seasons of non stop resiliency, just like Kiss. And also just like Kiss, players come and go on the Red Wings, coaches come and go, but they remain excellent. They're professionals, they know how to win, and they could be a mildly surprising contender.
- Pittsburgh Penguins (Bon Jovi) - Right now the Penguins are like Bon Jovi after they released "7800 Degrees Fahrenheit". There were some flashes of greatness but it wasn't until "Slippery When Wet" that the Bon Jovi majesty was truly unleashed. Same with the Penguins. They're kind of like an awkward puppy right now but as soon as they get it together, which could be as soon as next season, look out. They may be too young to realize that they're supposed to fold in this year's playoffs and make a run but I doubt it. But in 2008 I think the Penguins will be like the stadium filling Bon Jovi we know and love today.
- New Jersey Devils (Skid Row) - Remember how Skid Row had the first ever metal album to debut at number 1 with "Slave To The Grind"? You remember? Anybody? Hello? Well it happened. What did Skid Row do after it looked they were poised to make some serious noise in the music world? They fired singer Sebastian Bach. And now the Devils, leading the Atlantic Division and after winning 4 of their last 5, fired coach Claude Julien. Personally I'm cynical enough to think that GM Lou Lamoriello fired Julien and took over as coach because he's a glory hound and he wants to be at the helm if the Devils win it all in June, but that's just me. And I know it happened before when the Devils fired Robbie Ftorek late in the season and won the Stanly Cup but the thing about 1 in a million successful coaching moves is that they don't happen often. Just like Skid Row I believe the Devils made a stupid firing.
- Nashville Predators (Ratt) - Most casual fans forget that the Preds and Ratt even exist until they come to town or make a trade and then people think "ohhhh yeah, they're pretty good right?" Ratt started off like gang busters and started to fade away as the 80's wore on; I think the Preds will beat the Sharks in round 1 in what should be a super hard fought, hand to hand combat sort of series that will finally prove that the Preds can win in a physical series. But all that initial hoopla may make it tough once they get in there against the Wings or the Stars.
- Dallas Stars (Queensryche) - Queensryche was one of those bands that had tons of loyal fans and tons of people (like me) that thought "ehh. They're awe-ite". But then Queensryche captured lightning in a bottle with "Silent Lucidity" and were briefly the biggest thing in music. Well the Stars made some noise this year and surprised a lot of people but going into the playoffs there is the Marty Turco factor. If a goalie gives up a goal in the first period it's usually not a big deal but sometimes it's how you give up the goal. Turco is capable of letting in a Hextall-esque blue line back breaker that demoralizes a team. That's why, despite all the points and wins, I think the Stars are just awe-ite.
- San José Sharks (Dokken) - Everyone kept waiting for Dokken to finally hit it huge but they never seemed to get past that mid level, opening act, status. That's the Sharks. They've been a cache pick to win the Cup for about 5 seasons now yet they have never made noise in the playoffs. They even were the losers in some huge playoff upsets. They even got scoring leader Joe Thornton for a box of pucks and they still haven't even made the Cup finals let alone win it all. Again they SHOULD make a run, let's see if it happens.
- New York Rangers (Twisted Sister) - A one hit wonder, mediocre at best band with a front man (Dee Snider) who continues to this day to talk about how great they were. Well believe me, Twisted Sister wasn't great. The Rangers are a one player wonder (Jagr) from the city that never sleeps and never lets anything go under hyped. The Rangers only made it to the playoffs because they're in the same division as the pathetic Flyers who happily handed them enough wins to squeak in. They'll be dispatched early.
- Atlanta Thrashers (Poison) - All style, little substance, with all the toughness of your average 3 week old kitten. But I kind of like these guys...Poison and the Thrashers. Ilya Kovachuk was the sole superstar on the Thrashers until they made a solid pick up and got Keith Tkachuk to help with their scoring. They also have nice defensive depth, nice goaltending with Kari Lehtonen, now if they can get a little more balanced scoring then they could make a run in the weak Eastern Conference. Just like Poison I'm embarrassed to admit that I like the Thrashers.
- Calgary Flames (Britny Fox) - Let me tell you something dude, Britny Fox had a little too little and arrived at the party a little too late (1990). But they did have one great song (Girlschool) with a video shamelessly loaded with scantily clad Playboy babes, so they had that going for them, which is nice. And the Flames have Jarome Iginla and one of the best goalies in the business in Miikka Kiprusoff, not to mention a very solid defensive core and they were in the finals a few years ago so they have that going for them, which is nice.
- Tampa Bay Lightning (Judas Priest) - The Lightning should be a lot better then they are. They should have dominated their division considering their talent and the fact that their division is also home to the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Capitals. Judas Priest had some great songs, a great live show, but they never seemed to hit the stratosphere. When you look at the Lightning roster they seem solid and granted they did win a Cup a few years back but they should be a serious Cup contender instead of an also ran which is were I believe they'll wind up.
- Ottawa Senators (Iron Maiden) - Solid, solid, solid. This year has got to be their year. Their young players like Jason Spezza and Wade Redden are finally coming in to their own but it all comes down to goalie Ray Emery. Just like Iron Maiden, who has been basically putting on the same concert with the same songs for years now, the Senators have had their goalie issues for a long while now. But the Sens putting all their hopes in Ray Emery was like Iron Maiden putting their hopes in alcoholic singer Paul DiAnno, that's why they got Bruce Dickenson. The Sens needed a goalie, they never got one, so I wish them good luck. They'll need it.
- Toronto Maple Leafs (Guns and Roses) - This once mighty band has been reduced to a sick joke and the same goes for the Leafs. They skated into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth needing a win by the flipping Islanders against the Flyers to even have a chance. The Leafs will play their usual undisciplined style and the Sabres will probably bury tons of power play goals and the Leafs will complain about some type of injustice in the hockey press like they always do. God I hate the Leafs!!!
- Vancouver Canucks (Def Leppard) - Remember how Def Leppard put out "On Through The Night" which was a mediocre album yet showed some promise then they brought in producer Mutt Lange for "High 'N Dry", "Pyromania", and "Hysteria" which made them the biggest band in show business? Well the Canucks have been in need of a goalie since back before "Friday the 13th, Part X" was released and now they have thee best goalie in the league in Roberto Luongo. And they got him for peanuts. And he's super cocky which I like in a goalie. I'd be stunned if they didn't make a serious run at the whole thing.
- New York Islanders (Whitesnake) - Whitesnake was pretty much made up of the scraps of other bands....Rudy Sarzo from Quiet Riot, Steve Vai from David Lee Roth, Vivian Campbell from Dio, Tommy Aldridge from Ozzy, and David Coverdale from Deep Purple. The Islanders are also made up other team's throw aways. Guys like Mike Sillinger, Richard Park, Mike Dunham, Richard Zednick, and Aaron Asham were never expected to amount to anything but coach Ted Nolan made them a playoff team. I'll give him credit, any team that prominently features Richard Park should be playing in the AHL.
NBA - Derreck Sura
I wanted to run another something in MMM to let all the readers know that from now, until there's not enough going on, I plan on updating my blog ( http://nba-jam.blogspot.com/) daily. I figured that since all I ever hear from most people is, "I don't pay attention until the playoffs," that it was time to really get into my writing and utilize the blog to its fullest.
The Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs from top to bottom, but I do expect three under .500 squads to make the post season when it's all said and done. The West is more set, but there are still plenty of interesting races worth watching in the NBA's power conference.
EAST
(Back-to-back games have an "&" in between them.)
1. Detroit (49-27) - & @NY, Orl, @Tor, Phl, Tor & @Bos
Things are still looking good for the Pistons to have home court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs. In fact, they should wrap it up sometime this week. That said, there is something off with Detroit recently. I know it's not showing up in the standings, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pistons can be beaten in a seven game series before the Finals.
2. Chicago (46-32) - NY, Chr, @Wsh, @NJ
The Bulls split the season series with the Cavs, but are #2 based on the second tiebreaker (division record). Chicago will be favored to win all of their remaining games, but none of them figure to be easy. The Bulls have been playing very well as of late buoyed by contributions from both of their rookies (Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha). I've been saying all along that Chi-town will be very dangerous come playoff time, and nothing has changed my mind yet.
3. Toronto (44-33) - & @Min, Det, NY, @Det & Phl
The Raptors are a squad that plays together under any circumstances. Toronto also has great chemistry which seems to lead to a different guy playing big almost every night. (Coach Sam Mitchell deserves credit for all of that BTW.) Other than their two games left versus Detroit, the Raps should be favored to win the rest. It's also a possibility that the Pistons are on cruise control (having already clinched #1) when they meet. T-Dot is going to need some help to reach #2 because they lose the tiebreaker to both the Bulls and the Cavs.
4. Miami (42-35) - @Chr & Wsh, Ind, Bos, @Orl
The Heat have the Southeast Division all but wrapped up. However, the boys from South Beach are staring straight down the barrel of not having home court advantage in any of the series' they play in the post season. I'm sure that doesn't phase them, but at the same time they have to know how much more difficult that makes the road to repeat. The key question with Miami is how much can Dwyane Wade really give them? If the answer is like 65% of normal, they'll be fine. Anything less than 65% and the Heat will be lucky to see the Conference Finals.
5. Cleveland (46-32) - NJ, Atl, @Phl & Mil
The Cavaliers are only 5-7 since 3/20 with losses to Charlotte (by 8 in OT), New York (by 4) and Boston (by 2) included in that stretch. I see no reason why Cleveland shouldn't easily win the rest of their games too. Catching Detroit is now out of the question, so the least the Cavs can do for themselves is to put some pressure on the Bulls to win out. All is not lost for LeBron James and company though, since they will have home court advantage in the first round at #5 barring an unforeseen collapse.
6. Washington (39-37) - NJ & @Mia, @Atl, Chi, Orl & @Ind
After losing both Gilbert Arenas (left knee) and Caron Butler (right hand) for the season the Wizards have predictably gone into a tailspin. Antawn Jamison has stepped up and led Washington in scoring (29.7 ppg) in every game since GA got hurt. Likewise, Antonio Daniels has led them in assists (13 apg) the last three games. None of that matters though because the Wiz only have one "gimmie" left and don't have near the depth needed to sustain losing their top two players.
7. New Jersey (36-40) - @Wsh, @Cle & NY, @Ind & @NY, Chi
The Nets haven't really done anything to impress me down the stretch, but I just have a feeling about them for some reason. I even think they can still pass the Wiz for #6. NJ isn't a great team by any means, but they are a playoff tested group that tends to win the games they should. A first round match up versus the Raps would be very interesting.
8. Orlando (35-41) - @Mil, @Det, @Phl & Bos, @Wsh & Mia
The Magic have been terribly inconsistent all year and that trend shows no sign of abating in the season's last ten days. Orlando plays four of their next five away from home where they are a wretched 12-25. The Magic have two things going for them as I see it. One, they are relatively healthy. Two, Dwight Howard has subtly demanded more touches recently. Orlando must make their one game lead stick because they lose the tiebreaker to everyone.
Indiana (34-42) - @Phl & @Mil, @Mia, NJ, @Atl & Wsh
Normally winning two games in a row doesn't qualify as a story, but when you've won only six times since the All-Star break as the Pacers have, it does. While Indy is certainly still in contention for #8, they also play four of their next five on the road where they too are a paltry 12-25. Going .500 the rest of the way might be enough, but with Jermaine O'Neal (left knee, ankle), Jamaal Tinsley (right elbow) and Jeff Foster (back) all day-to-day, even that might be too much to ask.
New York (32-44) - Det & @Chi, @NJ, @Tor & NJ, @Chr
I'm probably being kind here by still giving the Knicks a shot to qualify for the post season, but they do have two games left against the Nets. Realistically though, with their schedule and Stephon Marbury (right toe), David Lee (right leg) and Steve Francis (right ankle) all day-to-day, it's only a matter of time.
WEST
1. Dallas (63-13) - LAC, @Min, Uth, SA, @GS & @Sea
One more win and the Mavericks clinch home court throughout the playoffs. I'm thinking it's a fait accompli. I see no reason for them to play Josh Howard (right ankle) or Erick Dampier (right shoulder) at all, and Dirk Nowitzki & Jason Terry should also get plenty of rest (if a fake injury or two can't be invented). The reason I say this is because with Avery Johnson as their coach I'm not worried about Dallas losing their edge any time soon.
2. Phoenix (58-19) - Sea, LAL & @Uth, @Hou & LAC
After the Suns play Seattle on 4/11 they close the season with two separate back-to-backs against clubs that will all *need* wins for playoff positioning. With Phoenix still in their own race for #2, this means Steve Nash, Shawn Marion (right hand) and Boris Diaw (back) will not be getting any significant rest prior to the post season. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to see the Suns get pushed to seven games in the first round, regardless of opponent.
3. San Antonio (55-21) - Por, Sac, @Min, @Dal & @Mem, Den
The Spurs closing stretch is pretty much a cake walk, with the exception of Dallas on 4/15 and Denver on 4/18. They should be able to win the other four games AND rest their key players. I'd like their chances to finish up at #2 much better if they didn't lose at Indiana on 4/1. As is, making up two games with six to play is going to be very tough. But keep in mind, SA holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix by virtue of having won the season series 2-1.
4. Utah (48-28) - @GS, Den, @Dal & Phx, Por, Hou
The Jazz have already clinched the Northwest Division, but home court in the first round is still up for grabs. Utah has not looked good in losing three straight after beating the Rockets in Houston. In those three games the Jazz have let the opposition shoot 49.76% (up from 45.28% this season) and have been outscored 95-66 collectively in the 4th quarter. Now Deron Williams (left groin) and Andrei Kirilenko (left thumb) are both day-to-day with no let up in sight from the schedule.
5. Houston (48-29) - & @Sea, @Por, NO/OKC & Phx, @Uth
Normally when coach Jeff Van Gundy complains about how his club is performing I check to see if the sun rose in the morning. But this time he might be right as the Rockets just got swept in a three game home stand from 4/1-6. Houston's remaining schedule is difficult, but they only need to make up one game on Utah before their season finale showdown on 4/18. If the Rockets win that game, but both teams end up tied, the Jazz get home court on the second tiebreaker (conference record).
6. Denver (40-36) - LAL, @Uth, @NO/OKC & @Mem, Min, @SA
I have to admit that I didn't think the Nuggets had this kind of run in them. They are undefeated in April and have help their opponents to 43.12% shooting (down from 45.88% on the year) during their current five game winning streak. Denver's schedule is tough, with only two "gimmies" left, but if they continue to play defense they are in.
7. Lakers (40-37) - & @Den, LAC & @Phx, Sea, @Sac
Los Angeles' best ball is so far behind them that it's hard for me to even remember when I thought they looked promising. That said, it's very tough to win games when you have a starter that is clearly not with the program anymore. It's even more difficult when said player is your starting PG. If LA can somehow find a way to win two of their next three games that should be enough to get them in. Otherwise they *must* win their final two contests of the season. Oh yeah, and the return of Kwame Brown (left ankle) would be an enormous help.
8. Clippers (37-38) - @Dal & @NO/OKC, @LAL & Por, Sac, @Phx & NO/OKC
Los Angeles has a very tough row to hoe with only two "gimmies" remaining. They also play the Hornets twice on the second nights of back-to-backs. At Dallas and at Phoenix won't be picnics either. The Clips are really going to have to buckle down on defense and share the ball on offense consistently to make it in.
Golden State (37-40) - Uth, @Sac, Min, Dal & @Por
The Warriors will not let up and could be the favorites in every game they have left (assuming the Mavs have nothing to play for on 4/17). While most clubs are tired and beat up at this point of the year, GS is healthy and playing together for the first time. Something tells me that the race for #8 in the West is going down to the last day of the season.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (36-41) - LAC, Den & @Hou, @Sac, @LAC
I know I said the Hornets were done already, and they probably are. The thing is, they have two games remaining with the Clips, one with the Nugs and no back-to-backs.
It'll take Chris Paul (left foot) and Tyson Chandler (left big toe) sucking it up, and a 5-0 closing kick, but stranger things have happened.
Monday Morning Mehta
Edition # 200
April 2, 2007 aka OPENING DAY
www.mondaymorningmehta.com
NL Preview and Predictions - Before I start I just wanted to remind everyone I got last years World Series winner correct. It's very odd of me to give myself any credit as you all know.
NL East
1. New York Mets - 93 wins - There's 2 parts to this. 1. The Mets Jinx factor. The last time I had the Mets in this slot they went onto lose about 137 games. So why not. 2. I really think they're going to win the division. The starters has been the concern but with the loss of Duaner Sanchez the bullpen is now also a concern. Aaron Heilman is the Ryan Madson of the Mets. Good pitcher, but only a matter of time til his arm falls off. I think they'll get alot out of rookie Mike Pelfrey as well as getting some production from Oliver Perez. Glavine will give them consistency, but the big factor here is that you know they'll go and get a starter at the trade deadline if they need one and Pedro Martinez will be back by August which will be a huge lift even if Pedro isn't 100%. This team is built to win in the regular season. The number 1 seed in the NL is probable.
2. Phillies - 90 wins - There's lots to like about the Phillies. A solid, deep pitching staff. A pitcher ready to emerge as a staff ace (Brett Myers). Two proven veteran pitchers (Freddy Garcia & Jamie Moyer). A young phenom who could be an all star (Cole Hamels). The offense is led by an awesome 3-4 punch in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Mike Lieberthal and David Bell/Abraham Nunez are being replaced by Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz and Wes Helms/Abraham Nunez. All in all, that's gotta be an improvement. Pitching wins. And I like the Phils pitching, so right off the bat I'll tell you this is my Wild Card team. But there's concerns I have which is why I can't put them at Number 1 in the NL East:
A. Gillick couldn't address the Pat Burrell situation. Burrell may have a huge year just like he did in 2005, but there was no secret Pat Gillick didn't want to see him in a Phillie uniform. The trade rumors will probably heat up again next year.
B. Gillick didn't address a weak bullpen in the offseason. Antonio Alfonseca was the key pickup. They have no lefty in the pen either, which early on may cost them some games.
C. Giliick addressed the 3rd base & catching situation with Wes Helms & Rod Barajas. Yes I just said above that it's an improvement, but seriously, these guys aren't exactly studs.
The key is Cole Hamels. If he pitches like did at the end of last year, he could win 16-17 games and possibly be a Cy Young candidate. If Hamels shows his youth, this team could be in trouble.
3. Atlanta Braves - 85 wins - This is a very dangerous team. There's no reason they can't win the division again. John Smoltz is healthy and ready to pitch for a big contract. Think about this, Smoltz is making $8 million this year. There's no way Smoltz doesn't know how much money he's pitching for. I expect a monster year (but hopefully his 0-3 record and 7.71 ERA on Opening Day holds up). Enough about Smoltz, Tim Hudson is back and should be strong. The bullpen could be the best in the division. The offense is solid with the Jones boys and Jeff Francouer to go along with Brian McCann. This team really scares me and I'm afraid they'll be in one of the first two slots, I just don't know which of the Phils or Mets I could remove.
4. Florida Marlins - 77 wins - This is a tough division but in many other divisions I'd have the Marlins over .500. A very good young team with one of the games best GM's in Larry Beinfest.
5. Washington Nationals - 69 wins - This team would be a last place team unless they were in the Royals division. They stink. New manager Manny Acta may get them to play some and possibly make them competitive. But the pitching staff is John Patterson (very nice pitcher) followed by a bunch of stiffs or youngsters not ready.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - 88 wins - So those who read MMM (hi Mom) know that I don't like teams coming off titles. So why did I change my mind here? By default. Don't like any teams enough to put them here. I seriously considered putting Milwaukee in here but this team will get their pitching together and the offense is fine led by this Pujols guy.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - 84 wins - Ben Sheets is the key here. I like the lineup with youngsters Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall (common name, uncommon game), Corey Hart (he'll wear his sunglasses at night games), and the supremely talented Prince Fielder. The addition of Johnny Estrada to the middle of that lineup will be big. Watch out for the Brew Crew this year. Could be Wild Card competition for the Phils.
3. Chicago Cubs - 81 wins - I've never thought you could go from a 66 win, last place team to a division winner. If you win 66 games, your pitching staff likely needs a overhaul. It's tough to overhaul pitching staffs via free agency. Ted Lilly is a nice pickup, but Jason Marquis is not. Rich Hill is a 2nd starter waiting to happen. A young phenom if you will. But it takes time. The offense is stacked but they still need a table setter. Somebody who gets on base and is a general pest so that the middle of the order isn't hitting solo homers all the time. The bullpen is also shaky as I expect Ryan Dempster to fully implode some time this year. Don't like this team.
4. Houston Astros - 80 wins - Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings I like. Lance Berkman is almost as good as Albert Pujols. Besides that I don't like much about this team. Brad Lidge is still struggling, Carlos Lee is Pat Burrell in a Dominican body, and the loss of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte can't be good. If they get Clemens back in June, it'll be worth about 5 more wins, which would get them to 85, still not enough for the division or Wild Card.
5. Cincy Reds - 78 wins - Damn the NL is mediocre. It's tough to find much separation between these teams. There's no reason Cincy can't be in the Wild Card hunt most of the year. Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang form a very formidable 1-2 punch. After that, it's very scary. The bullpen is also in shambles here. Breakout year for Edwin Encarnacion.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - 68 wins - Ah, finally a team someone can get some sure fire wins from. This team is too young and just not good enough. It's a shame too as they have one of the best all around players in the game in Jason Bay who will just rot there for years.
NL West
1. LA Dodgers - 90 wins - Jason Schmidt, Dereck Lowe, Brad Penny, and Randy Wolf make a very good pitching staff. I love the top of the order with Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre (I expect sort of a revival year from Pierre as he's struggled the last few years). They still need one more bat, which could come in a Brad Penny trade. The bullpen is solid with Jonathan Broxton, one of the games best setup men and Takashi Saito, who was excellent as a closer last year.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 88 wins - There's not much to dislike about this team. They're ready to compete this year. Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez make a very nice pitching staff. The offense is young, deep and very talented. This is a very solid team.
3. San Diego Padres - 85 wins - I like nothing about this team yet they continue to win and they'll win again. Maybe it was Bruce Bochy. New Manager Bud Black gets a very good pitching staff in a great pitchers park. But I think there's just too many question marks this year and not every one can come up positive.
4. San Francisco Giants - 81 wins - This team should epitomize the NL. Mediocre. Very good pitching with Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. After that it's question marks everywhere. And the whole Barry Bonds fiasco has got to be a distraction, don't you think?
5. Colorado Rockies - 71 wins - Even the humidor won't stop this team from losing a lot of games. Just trade Todd Helton and start over already. Nice youngsters in Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins.
Playoff Predictions
AL - Yankees, Red Sox (WC), White Sox and Angels
NL - Mets, Phillies (WC), Cards, Dodgers
AL - I think it's between the Red Sox and Angels in the AL. The Yankees are built to win the division while the Red Sox are built for October in mind. I'd put money that Clemens is going to the Yankees, but I'm not sure that'll help. If he goes to the Red Sox this is a slam dunk pick. Nonetheless I'll pick the Red Sox this year out of the AL over the Angels.
NL - Same deal here. Mets will win the division but I think the Phils may be better suited for October. The Dodgers will pose the biggest threat, but I think I'll pick the Phillies, just because I'm on crack and to be a bit different from all the pundits who keep saying "Angels/Dodgers".
World Series - Red Sox over Phillies. Why? Well I've said all along I think Pat Gillick is positioning to get Andruw Jones (or Miguel Cabrera in 2009) in a Phillie uniform and this would be the perfect sell to ownership. Look, we made the World Series we need one more cog, a right handed bat to go along with Utley and Howard. With Andruw Jones promising to hit the free agency market, this would be the perfect story. Anyway, picking the Red Sox and Phillies in the World Series is about as asinine as you can get. I realize this. Whatever. Nobody reads this crap anyway.
PLAY BALL!!
