Monday Morning Mehta 11/1/05

Edition # 138
November 1, 2005

First off, congratulations to the 6 new subscribers to Monday Morning Mehta. With your subscription to MMM, you'll receive a weekly email and all access to our website (the one you're on right now).

Now onto the action. Ed Wasser is on vacation today, he'll return next week. Next week's MMM will be a late Monday edition. Expect MMM around noon EST on November 7th.

NFL & NBA are all that's on the agenda for today:

Eagles

In one of the worst efforts in the Andy Reid era, the Eagles get trounced by the Denver Broncos 49-21, as their comeback attempt gets thwarted. Even the presence of MMM and Ed Wasser at the game at Invesco Field at Mile High couldn't help the Eagles in this ugly game. I've attached a shot of the kickoff.

Let's break the game down:

Game Negatives (a record 6 negatives this week):

- Front Four. Here's the deal. The front four has looked awful for 6 games, and looked great against San Diego after a bye week. The coaches had plenty of time to defend LT2. My point is, it's time to realize these guys just aren't that good. Mike Patterson is inconsistent and has shown very little in terms of pass rush. Javon Kearse has been hurt, but even when healthy was non existent most of the year. ND Kalu? Please. Darwin Walker is about the only consistent player, and he's nothing to write home about.

- Donovan McNabb. How in the world can you start 0 for 12 and be a top notch QB. "INCONCEIVABLE" (The Princess Bride - a pop culture reference since Wasser is out). Anyway, McNabb was so bad it wasn't even funny. He's had three horrific games in a row, I really have no answer for it.

- Brian Dawkins. One thing Dawkins isn't good at is one on one coverage. Maybe it's the fact that he's vertically challenged over most TE's and WR's, but he just can't seem to do well. There was all kinds of blown coverage's in this game though.

- Jim Johnson. Here's the deal. Being at the game you can see the Eagles defenses coverage. The Broncos played most of the game, as they usually do, with two tight ends and a fullback. If you do that math, that leaves a QB, one RB and one WR. One WR means there's no reason to play both cornerbacks. But the Eagles chose to play Sheldon Brown deep in coverage and play both safeties at the line of scrimmage. Stupid. You should have another down lineman or another LB and play Dawkins or Lewis in their normal spots. They were torched at the line and manhandled most of the game.

- Offensive Line. Eagles fans should be worried about one thing. If the offensive line and defensive line have consistently been on the Negatives side of the Eagles recap, and Super Bowls are won "in the trenches", what does that tell you about this team?

- The chant "IN --- COM --- PLETE". This is the Broncos little chant after every incompletion by the opposing team. It got really funny when the Eagles starting coming back and the Eagles fans started doing it to Jake Plummer though.

Game Positives:

- Free Beer at the Broncos tailgate. Some local establishment sponsors a Broncos tailgate and there was free beer there. It didn't seem like many fans knew about it either.

Overall, I'm not in a panic, just yet. If the Eagles beat the Redskins this Sunday, they'll finish the first 8 games of the year 5-3, just like I thought they'd be at the beginning of the year. Their last 8 games are very easy, with 5 of them at home. A 6-2 finish to the season is very likely which would put them at 11-5, just as I suspected. Eagles fans were fooled last year by the 13-1 season, it doesn't happen often.

This isn't an excuse, but this team looks bored. Does it stem from the fact that they know the season doesn't start until December. Donovan McNabb doesn't even look like he cares when he's on the sidelines, where's the emotion? This is a completely different McNabb from last year, I hate the saying but it works here, "He really doesn't look to be having fun".

OK, here's the excuse. The season doesn't start until Thanksgiving weekend in the NFL. I truly believe that (of course you can't be 1-9 before that). It's the you can't win it but you can lose it theory. If the Eagles are able to tread water, they'll be fine. This team has shown the ability to turn it on and off.

I didn't really see too many people tailgating in the lots around the Denver stadim. Pretty weak tailgate. I think it has alot to do with the fact that there's plenty of bars around the stadium since the stadium is so close to downtown Denver. Still, pretty weak.

The noise inside Invesco was something else. One of the loudest stadiums I've been to. The fact that they pack in about 80,000 doesn't hurt as compared to 65-70K for most other stadiums.

I met the mayor of Denver. Should've given him the finger or set him on fire, but I choked and let all of Philadelphia down. Sorry.

Around the League

How funny was that guy who ran out onto the field and took the ball from Brett Favre in Cincy? That to me was the best moment of Week 8. Is there any security at Bengals games??

Jeff Garcia's honeymoon has ended abruptly in Detroit as he throws a Joey Harringtonesque pick for a TD in OT as the Bears take control of the NFC North. Looks like my co-writer Sura could be right, Harrington isn't the only problem in Detroit.

Speaking of that game, I've written this many times, the Bears play hard for Lovie Smith. This is a team that will continue to surprise people.

The Giants win an emotional game as they thump the Redskins 36-0. I hate the Giants and Giants fans, they're going to get theirs in a few weeks, another game attended by 2 MMM staff writers at the Meadowlands.

A great win by the Rams. Of course, Mike Martz's replacement Joe Vitt also had an angioplasty yesterday. Vitt looks committed to running the ball and the Rams look like a completely different, and better team. Are you listening Coach Reid? (Obligatory Eagles should run the ball MMM comment, you didn't think I wouldn't mention that did you)

Tom Brady is the best QB in the NFL by far. That's right, you read correctly, by far. Antonio Gates is the best TE in the NFL by far. LT2 is the best running back in the NFL. How in the world does Marty Schoetenheimer still have a job?

NBA West Preview and Playoff Predictions - Derreck Sura

The conferences are more evenly matched this season then they have been in years. In fact, if you compare my predictions, I think the top five teams in each conference are pretty similar talent wise. The main difference is that the middle to the bottom of the West is still much deeper then the East.

Last year I returned to my ways by having at least one of my pre-season picks for the NBA Finals actually get there. Which makes it four out of five years. There is a little reminder below in case you forgot.

'00-01 Lakers - Bucks
'01-02 Lakers - Raptors
'02-03 Nets - Lakers
'03-04 Spurs - Pacers
'04-05 Pistons - Timberwolves

1. San Antonio - The rich just keep getting richer. GM R.C. Buford proved again this summer why he is one of the best in the business by signing free agents (FA) Nick Van Exel and Michael Finley to go along with Argentinean big man Fabricio Oberto. Wow. They won the title, then added a back up PG that is known for hitting clutch shots, a 6th man of the year candidate swingman, and an experienced big man with some skill. Again, wow. The only player of any consequence the Spurs lost was Devin Brown, and he was hardly integral to their success. Besides an injury to Tim Duncan, the only possible problem I see with SA is coach Gregg Popovich keeping everyone happy with their minutes. The Spurs will probably start slowly again, then turn it on to run away with the West and right into the NBA Finals.

Eyes On - Tony Parker. He's been known to pout when things aren't going his way. I wonder how he will react if NVE is always on the floor to finish games?

Now or Never - Rasho Nesterovic. His days are numbered with the arrival of Oberto. If anyone wants the 4 years and 30 million left on his deal, they can have him.

2. Sacramento (3rd best record) - The job President Geoff Petrie has done to remake the Kings on the fly while keeping them near the top is very impressive. Only Peja Stojakovic and Mike Bibby remain from the team most remember. Sacto is two deep at every position but SG, and if everyone stays healthy, they can be a better team then they were last year. Newcomer Bonzi Wells and Peja are both in their contract years, so they won't need any extra motivation to bring it every night. The Kings do have an issue that concerns me though. Coach Rick Adelman's contract is up after the season, making him a lame duck. If they struggle early, the players might tune him out, and things will snowball from there. However, if Sacto is able to gel quickly and play some defense, they could end up with the 2nd best record in the West.

Eyes On - Francisco Garcia. Placing expectations on a rookie is dangerous, but if he can provide some decent minutes as Bonzi's backup, that will be huge.

Now or Never - Shareef Abdur-Rahim. We'll get to see if all those numbers he put up really are hollow since he's on a playoff team for the first time in his career.

3. Denver (4th best record) - The Nuggets went 28-6 under coach George Karl last season, so having him
in the fold from the opening tip is only going to help. Their starting front court could be one of the best in the league if Carmelo Anthony continues to play under control and Kenyon Martin returns to form. Denver still lacks a consistent outside shooter though. The Nugs have three PG's that deserve minutes now with the addition of FA Earl Watson. His signing was a bit of a curious move by GM Kiki Vandeweghe, but if Kiki can parlay one of their PG's into a top flight SG, then it will make perfect sense. Denver has a lot of volatile personalities, which could lead to dissention if Karl isn't able to keep them all happy, but if the Nugs address their SG situation, they have a chance to be the 2nd best team in the West.

Eyes On - Andre Miller. The most likely candidate of the three PG's to be traded. He has good value around the league, and Karl is not his biggest fan.

Now or Never - Nene Hilario. Really has not improved much since his rookie year. He's a restricted FA after the season, so it's money making time for the big man.

4. Houston (2nd best record) - The Rockets were on a big time roll heading into last year's playoffs. Then Juwan Howard came down a viral infection in his heart, and Houston was bounced in the first round. Enter FA Stromile Swift. Swift is an extremely athletic player who runs the floor well for a big man. His addition gives the Rockets a dimension they did not have last season. Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will have better chemistry with a year of playing together under their belts. Houston's back court is still a little shaky though. They are undersized, injury prone, and a little long in the tooth. The additions of Rafer Alston and Luther Head do give them some youth, but neither of them can really be counted on yet. The Rockets' defense will still be very strong, and they will challenge the Spurs for #1 if can score some more points.

Eyes On - Derek Anderson. He'll give them a versatile back court performer with some athleticism if he's able to stay healthy (a big IF).

Now or Never - Alston. Traded from Toronto mainly because of his off court antics. He better shape up
since Jeff Van Gundy is his coach and he's on a title contender.

5. Dallas - Even though Dirk Nowitzki is the only remaining member of their former "big three", the Mavericks are still loaded with talent. Coach Avery Johnson has two main tasks in his first full year in charge. First he has to settle on a regular rotation. This will undoubtedly alienate a few players, and how "Toothy" handles that will show what kind of coach he's going to be. Next, as is always the case in Dallas, he has make sure they play defense and rebound. FA Doug Christie was brought in specifically for his defensive attitude. He should team with Jason Terry and Josh Howard to form a very solid trio of perimeter defenders. After Erick Dampier the Mavs lack a consistent rebounder though. If Dirk pretends like he's playing for the German national team, Dallas could finish with the 2nd best record in the West.

Eyes On - Marquis Daniels. His jump shot is not great, but he can get to rim and finish in transition. Has the uncanny ability to always be in the right place on offense.

Now or Never - Keith Van Horn. He'll be asked to play out of position as backup PF in his contract year, so he's going to need to get tough on defense and rebound.

6. Phoenix - The loss of Amare Stoudemire until approximately the All-Star break due to microfracture surgery on his left knee is a huge blow for the Suns. The plan was to move Amare back to his natural PF position and become a more traditional team. Now I think Phoenix will play the exact same way they did last year until Amare gets back. Shawn Marion will continue to play out of position at PF and MVP Steve Nash will run the point. New acquisitions Kurt Thomas, James Jones and FA Raja Bell will start at C, SF, & SG respectively. The Suns wanted to get tougher on defense this summer, so they brought in Boris Diaw and FA Brian Grant to go along with Thomas and Bell. I think Phoenix will be more competitive then people think without Amare, and I expect them to be a very dangerous team when he returns.

Eyes On - Jones. Acquired from Indiana for a 2nd round pick in a very shrewd move by GM Bryan Colangelo. Deadly spot up 3 point shooter will contribute right away.

Now or Never - Leandro Barbosa. Has yet to prove he can a run team as he enters his 3rd year. Gets into the lane at will, but rarely creates shots for his teammates.

7. Memphis - This team made whole sale change in the off season as President Jerry West cleaned out all the bad apples. Gone are Jason Williams, Earl Watson, Bonzi Wells, James Posey, and Stromile Swift. In are Damon Stoudamire, Bobby Jackson, Eddie Jones, and Hakim Warrick. Even though the Grizzlies have less overall talent and depth, the hope is that their improved team chemistry will be enough to overcome that. Another positive side effect of having less depth and talent is that Pau Gasol will play additional minutes and be relied on more. Memphis really has to focus on rebounding the ball as a team because they had the 3rd worst rebounding percentage in the league last year ( 48.5%). If their PG's can stay healthy, they should be fine, but the Griz can't have injuries and make the playoffs anymore.

Eyes On - Dahntay Jones. 3rd year SG is very athletic, a good spot up 3 point shooter, and a quality defender. Will see regular minutes for the first time in his career.

Now or Never - Bobby Jackson. Has averaged 45 games played over the last three seasons. Will have every opportunity to be the starting PG if he can stay healthy.

8. Utah - The return of Andrei Kirilenko is very good news for the Jazz. Any team that loses their best player is in trouble, and that's exactly what happened to Utah last year. Their projected starting front court of AK-47, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur never really had a chance to show what they could do. With those three healthy now, they will be able to use their collective versatility to create mismatches just about every night. FA Devin Brown and Gordan Giricek form a decent SG rotation. Where I worry about the Jazz is at PG. Picking a team with a rookie PG to make the playoffs is dicey at best, but Deron Williams seems like a perfect fit for coach Jerry Sloan's offense. Utah has no depth at PG after Williams though. The Jazz are no lock for the playoffs by any means, but I think their front court is enough to get them in.

Eyes On - Brown. Never had an opportunity to get regular minutes in San Antonio. Can create his own shot and play a little defense. Should be starting before too long.

Now or Never - Boozer. After a disappointing first year in Utah, it's time for him to start earning the 59 million over the next 5 years he has left on his deal.

Also Ran's

Seattle - The Sonics ended up losing only three of their eight FA's this summer. Jerome James' departure means nothing, but losing coach Nate McMillan and backup PG Antonio Daniels hurts. "Mr. Sonic" (McMillan) got them to over achieve by playing a run and gun 3 point shooting style as a lame duck. New coach Bob Weiss has a pretty unimpressive resume, to be kind. I just don't think he's going command the player's respect like Nate Mac did. Daniels was Seattle's closer at the PG position every game he was healthy last year. His replacement, Rick Brunson, does know how to run a team, and rarely turns the ball over, but he is no where near the dynamic offensive player that AD is. The Sonics will be just as fun to watch this season, and could make the playoffs, but they really didn't do anything to improve their roster.

Eyes On - Nick Collison. He's a bit undersized to be a starting C at 6'9, but he has a nice low post game, shoots a high percentage, rebounds, and plays aggressively.

Now or Never - Luke Ridnour. With Daniels gone the team's playoff hopes rest on Rid's ability to play big when it counts the most. Time to step up buddy.

Golden State - I really wanted to put the Warriors in the playoffs, but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger. Regardless, GS is going to be "my" team this season (Washington was last year). The Warriors will be able to push the pace and score a lot of points this season because they are two deep at PG, SG, and SF. Baron Davis and Jason Richardson form one of the most dynamic and fun to watch back court's in the NBA. I worry about their front court though. Starting big men Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle are nice role players, but neither is a consistent offensive threat on the low block. The rest of their bigs are unproven youngsters, giving GS virtually no depth up front. If the Warriors play some defense they can make the playoffs, but their lack of a true post presence will probably be too much to overcome.

Eyes On - Ike Diogu. Rookie missed all of training camp and the pre-season with a broken left hand. In a perfect world he'd be the scorer they need down low.

Now or Never - Mike Dunleavy Jr. 3rd pick from the 2002 draft has never really lived up to his billing. Must become more consistent since it's his contract year.

Lakers - Coach Phil Jackson will deserve everyone's respect if he can guide this Los Angeles team to the playoffs in his first year on the job. I thought the Lakers needed two things this off season, an athletic big man and a pass first PG with quickness. Kwame Brown fits the first category, albeit he's not exactly what I had in mind. Conversely, GM Mitch Kupchak did nothing to address LA's utter lack of a distributor. When Smush Parker is your best option at PG, you know you've got problems. The Lakers still have Kobe Bryant though, and that can make up for a lot of ills. Phil has two jobs this year as I see it. First is to get this team interested in playing defense again. Then he has to define role's for everyone on offense. I suppose if everything goes right for them LA has an outside shot at making the playoffs.

Eyes On - Lamar Odom. I have a feeling he's primed for a break out season. He's a perfect fit for the triangle offense and Phil should be able to keep him motivated.

Now or Never - Brown. Since he only signed a two year contract, it's make or break time for his career. Needs to improve his work ethic and attitude immediately.

Clippers - Los Angeles' other team has a very solid starting five in Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, and Chris Kaman. I am a little concerned about their ability to share the ball on offense, but overall they are a pretty well rounded unit. On the other hand, the Clips really have no quality depth to speak of anywhere on their roster with the possible exception of Chris Wilcox. This means that they are in big trouble if any one of their starters goes down for an extended period of time, which seems awfully likely given that group's history on the injured list. LA could make the playoffs if they avoid the injury bug, play solid defense, and get some kind of contribution off the bench. Not like it matters one way or the other to owner Donald Sterling though. As long as he turns a profit, the season is a success.

Eyes On - Shaun Livingston. 2nd year PG is very entertaining to watch on the rare occasions when he's healthy. Great court vision and an extremely creative passer.

Now or Never - Kaman. Has the size and ability to be an above average low post scorer. Needs to play under control and develop a better understanding of the game.

Minnesota - I have a bad feeling about this team. Sure, they have some talent on paper, but I just don't think it fits well together. For example, the Timberwolves' two best players, Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak, supposedly have never seen eye to eye. Minnesota has three respectable PG's, but no decent C. Basically, rookie coach Dwane Casey has his work cut out for him. Casey earned his shot by being an assistant in Seattle for the past eleven years. His coaching acumen will definitely be put to the test with this group. The Wolves are very thin up front after KG, and don't really have any dependable perimeter scorers after Wally and Troy Hudson. Minnesota could make the playoffs if KG stays healthy and two or three of their role players have career years. If KG misses significant time though, the Wolves will be awful.

Eyes On - Rashad McCants. Rookie SG could be instant offense off the bench. Should get enough minutes early on to sink or swim.

Now or Never - Marko Jaric. Has yet to prove he can consistently run an NBA team's half court offense. No way is he worth 38 million over 6 years.

Portland - The house cleaning is almost complete for the Trail Blazers, but in the meantime they are in the midst of a full fledged youth movement. In fact, the majority of the players on their roster were born in the 1980's. The center piece of Portland's rebuilding project is PF Zach Randolph, but it remains to be seen if he can return to his '03-04 form ( 20.1 points & 10.5 rebounds) after microfracture surgery on his right knee. If the Blazers have a second piece to their puzzle in place, it's PG Sebastian Telfair. Hopefully new coach Nate McMillan will be able to show "Bassy" what it takes to run a team at the highest level. Nate Mac must've really wanted to stick it to his former bosses in Seattle to take over this club. I'm not expecting much from Portland this season, but they are exactly the type of team I love to watch develop.

Eyes On - Travis Outlaw. Super athletic swingman is ready to break out in a big way as he enters his 3rd year. All he needs is regular playing time to show it.

Now or Never - Darius Miles. He is what he is at this point. The house cleaning is not done until he is traded. Only problem is the 41 million over 5 year left on his deal.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City - The Hornets shouldn't be as abysmal to watch in action this season. They have a young and athletic back court in Chris Paul and J.R. Smith, and a surprisingly deep rotation of big men. NO/OKC will be able to rebound and block shots with the best teams in the league, but can they score points is the question. The Hornets averaged a league low 88.4 points a game last year, and I suspect they are going to have trouble in that area again this season. The main reason is the team has no go to guy. C Jamaal Magloire is their best player, but he's not really offensive minded. I'm sure Paul or Smith would love to be the focal point of the offense, but neither is ready. NO/OKC could surprise a few people this year if Paul pans out and they develop some chemistry, but they are still far from the playoffs.

Eyes On - Local support. The Hornets' average home attendance was 14,221 last season. If the good people of OKC can do better then that, the team should stay there.

Now or Never - David West. Big man had a promising rookie year, but struggled through an injury plagued sophomore campaign. He'll have to earn his minutes now.

Final Four - San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Sacramento

Western Finals - San Antonio, Phoenix

NBA Finals - San Antonio, Miami

NBA Champion - San Antonio