Monday Morning Mehta 8/29/05
Edition # 129
August 29, 2005
Next MMM: Tuesday September 6, 2005 - NFC PREVIEW w/ PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!
AFC
Once again the AFC is stacked with good teams this year. On paper no less than 6-8 teams have legitimate arguments about going to the Super Bowl in Detroit.
AFC East
1. New York Jets
Record: 11-5
I just can't do too many previews and predictions without throwing in a few curveballs. The NFL is usually unpredictable but after last years preseason favorites went to the Super Bowl, I expect this year to be predictable in it's unpredictableness. Whatever that means. I'll start off by saying the Pats will not win the division and the Jets are the heir apparent. Chad Pennington is healthy after offseason shoulder surgery. Last years conservative offensive coordinator Paul Hackett was replaced by highly regarded yet still conservative (by this writer at least) ex-Titan offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger. The difference is Heimerdinger goes for TD's in the red zone a lot more than Hackett. Herm Edwards really scares me as he's probably the worst coach at in game time management otherwise I'd be saying 13-3. The secondary minus Law is the only weakness on an otherwise Super Bowl contender though. Look next week to see if this is the team I have coming out of the AFC.
2. New England Patriots
Record: 9-7
This could come back to bite me. But I watched a lot of New England the last 4 years, and every game Tedy Bruschi was making a big play or two. I just can't overcome that fact. The losses of both their coordinators has to take a toll also. If the argument is Bill Parcells has never won a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick, then Belichick has never won a Super Bowl without Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell! That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Corey Dillon comes down to Earth, and possibly a breakout season for David Givens.
3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 7-9
J.P. Losman takes over at QB and there could be some learning curves and bumbs along the way. Willis McGahee has blossomed into a stud RB and WR Lee Evans is ready to breakout. But the Bills may take a Bengals like "step back before taking another step forward". This young team will be very good in 2006 Gas long as Losman develops as he should.
4. Miami Dolphins
Record: 5-11
Gus Frerotte is the starter. Ricky Williams is out for the first four games. New head coach Nick Saban will probably start the "weeding" out process to find his type of playing. Look for this team to be a pest late in the year and possibly be a spoiler against someone.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 11-5
This team relies on two very good things to win. Running the ball with Jamal Lewis and defense. Over the course of a long season the Ravens will win their games as long as they continue to pound Jamal Lewis. The defense is led by the best defensive player in football. Ray...NOT...The best defensive player in the NFL is Ed Reed. He's all over the field and makes big plays consistently. Kyle Boller or Anthony Wright will be a big question all year in Baltimore. I have a problem with this defense post-Super Bowl though, as they seem to come up small in big spots, so you'll have to wait until next week to see if I pick them to go all the way.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 9-7
I really want to love the Bengals more but this defense just scares me. The offense is awesome. Carson Palmer should take another big step forward while throwing to TJ and Chad Johnson. This team has the potential to win the division, but I just can't predict it.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 8-8
Too many things went right for the Steelers last year. Duce gets hurt, Bettis turns 24 again. Maddox gets hurt, the rookie Ben Roethlisberger fills in and plays great (don't let his stats fool you, he played great in the regular season). A big loss to this team as I see it is Plaxico Burress. He really stretched the field for the running game and Hines Ward. The defense will feel the loss of Kendrell Bell, and I just don't see James Farrior having as big of a season as he did last year. Watch out for Willie Parker - could steal a lot of carries from Duce & Bus and is going to break out this year.
4. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
And starting at QB......Trent Dilfer! Just a mess of a team but GM Phil Savage has already done a nice roster turnaround.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5
Everyone knows the deal by now. Great offense, bad defense. The only way this formula wins a Super Bowl is if you turn that into an incredibly awesome offense and an average defense. I think they're very close to being an average defense. If this team gets home field, nobody's stopping them from Detroit. You'll have to wait until next week. Picking Peyton Manning is painful for me so this decision is really going to be difficult.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 10-6
This young team can flat out play. Jack Del Rio's team is young and has an awesome defense. This is a playoff team any way you shake it. If Byron Leftwich can emerge and find some WR's to throw the ball to, watch out this team can compete for the division.
3. Houston Texans
Record: 8-8
This team should be ready for a playoff push but is stuck in mediocrity. Andre Johnson is one of the best WR's in the game, and I really like David Carr. After that they have an inconsistent running game and a spotty defense. I wouldn't be surprised if they're in playoff contention most of the year though.
4. Tennessee Titans
Record: 7-9
This is a team that should go 3-13 this year. They're a debacle. But Jeff Fisher and Steve McNair will find a way to battle. The offense is surprisingly good, much better than I initially thought. The defense however is bad, much worse than I initially thought. Keith Bullock may have to make every tackle.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
What impresses me about this team is how they finished last year. After an abysmal start to the season they battled all year and showed a lot of heart. This team loves playing for Dick Vermiel, I think they've got plenty of talent to compete on both offense and defense. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson could have a combined 3,000 yards rushing, they're that good.
2. Denver Broncos
Record: 9-7
There's just something about this team that I like. The defense is improving and anyone who reads this knows I love Mike Shanahan. But you also know how much I dislike Jake Plummer. He's way too inconsistent for this team to advance very far.
3. San Diego Chargers
Record: 8-8
Too many things went right for the Chargers last year. The Steelers theory applies this year. Drew Brees was too good, and there's got to be rumblings of Phillip Rivers. LT is the best running back in the game in my opinion, but that's not going to be enough.
4. Oakland Raiders
Record: 7-9
No. That's the only word I can use. No. Kerry Collins is a nice QB but he turns the ball over way too much for this team to win. Randy Moss and Jerry Porter will be awesome, but the defense won't be. They'll be exciting but come up short.
NEXT WEEK: PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!
MLB/Phillies
After a disappointing 3-3 West Coast trip, the Phillies have begin their defining moment of the season (every series the rest of the way is the most important series) as they take on Wild Card rivals New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.
Positives:
- Jon Lieber doesn't stink anymore. I don't know what happened to Lieber for about a month or so, but he's definitely pitching much better.
- Bullpen. This sometimes overworked bullpen is phenomenal right now. Guys like Aquilino Lopez, Eude Brito, and Aaron Fultz have been great. Billy Wagner has been lights out for about 3 months now.
- Middle of the order: Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. They've been playing very consistently lately.
Negatives:
- Rheal Cormier. Imagine if you could go back into time, and replace every Cormier pitched game and replace it with Aaron Fultz. And then replace 95% of David Bell's AB's since June with Placido Polanco? How many more wins would the Phillies have?
- Starting Pitchers starting to crumble. Cory Lidle, who was terrible goes on the DL. He'll be replaced by Robinson Tejeda which is probably a good thing. But they can't afford to lose any more pitchers.
Overall, this team is playing slightly above average. The problem is, the Houston Astros are playing below average and have given up control of the Wild Card. I think it still will come down to the Astros and the Marlins in the end.
Around the MLB
The Wild Card is heating up great in the AL. The AL East once again will be a showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox.
There isn't a better pitcher in baseball than Johan Santana. Well, besides the inhuman Roger Clemens.
How is Todd Jones lights out for the Marlins? Someone please explain to me how the guy couldn't get a guy out to save his life last year, and now he's lights out.
There's rumors of Ken Griffey Jr. being traded to the Chicago White Sox. With the way he's been playing this year, which is they way he was playing in the late 90's, that could really shift the balance of power to the White Sox in the AL. The White Sox still have Dustin Hermanson as their closer though (his ERA is 1.68!).
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- I was watching Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock being interviewed on Comcast and he was relaying his experiences from some of the NHL scrimmages in Canada. It was a lot of the NHLers first experience with the new rules. The word Hitchcock kept using over and over again was "chaos". A lot of up and down fast breaking action. Also, Martin Broduer was the only goalie that thought to bring the new smaller goalie equipment. Hitchcock said Broduer looked significantly smaller in the net. This should be an interesting year.
- What the hell are the Atlanta Thrashers thinking? I was looking at this grid in the Hockey News last week that had various league wide ticket prices over the last few years. I'm looking at the ticket prices for all the teams in the league and generally checking out how drastically the teams have cut prices for this year. I was a little disappointed that a few teams (Vancouver, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Minnesota, Detroit, Edmonton) kept their ticket prices the same. The Calgary Flames kept their prices the same but it's hard to complain about them because they've had the lowest average ticket prices in the league for years. You can see a Flames game for $13.48. Of course you're in the rafters but what do you expect for $13.48? So I get to the Thrashers; they RAISED ticket prices an average of 4% across the board. Yes I know, 4% is nothing, but it's like they say in Goodfellas "you gotta keep up appearances!!" You mean to tell me that Ted Turner needs that 4% that bad? Just a stupid move.
- The Chicago Blackhawks hired ex-Olympic speed skating gold medalist Dan Jansen to teach skating. Jansen was interviewed by ESPN News about the hiring. So I watched the interview and it was really interesting. The interviewer asked Jansen how exactly do you "teach" skating to professional hockey players. Jansen said "99% of the guys that come into the NHL derive all their skating power from their legs, they shouldn't. These guys can only last a minute or so on the ice during a shift before fatigue sets in. This makes no sense because these guys can run at least 5 miles at a fast clip so they should be able to skate at break neck speed for a few minutes at least before getting tired. Skating power should come from your core. It's about transferring weight, long strides, even proper breathing". You could tell Jansen was passionate about the subject and that he knows his stuff. It's a shame he has to work for a Mickey Mouse franchise like the Blackhawks.
- I know everyone's dying to hear my opinion of the new show 'Tommy Lee Goes To College'. Well my review is three words long...dead on arrival. Here's the problem, Tommy met with the dean of the school 30 seconds into the first episode and the dean told that he couldn't drink on campus and there was to be no canoodling with coeds. Well then what's the point of this show? Isn't that why we want to see Tommy Lee in college? I don't know about you but I wanted to see Tommy roll into a frat party, drink the frat kids under the table, then take home like 3 cheerleaders. And the next day do it again like it was the Dr. Feelgood tour.
- Do you ever think that Sixers GM Billy King goes to work decked out from head to toe in a Santa Clause outfit? "HO HO HO!!! Merry Christmas everyone!!" (Enter Samuel Dalembert who sits on Billy Kings leg) "Hello little Sammy. What would you like for Christmas?" "Well Santa, I'd like a contract that's 6 years long for $58 million". "HO HO HO....well little Sammy have you been good this year?" "I was OK. I only averaged 6.9 points per game and my hands were terrible but I was pretty good defensively. And I'm sure I'll be good in the future!!" (Dalembert puts his head on Billy Santa King's shoulder) "I couldn't agree more!! HO HO HO!! Here's that contract Sammy!! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!" "Thanks Santa!! You're the greatest!!!" (Dalembert leaves...Kyle Korver enters and sits on King's leg) "Merry Christmas little Kyle!!! What would you like for Christmas!?!?" "Well Santa, I'd like a contract that 6 years for $20 million". "HO HO HO!!!! Have you been good this year little Kyle?" "Well, on the court I was OK. But off the court I was a good soldier and always kept my mouth shut. And I never ever complained about playing time". "Agreed. And you know what little Kyle? Since you're such a nice little boy and even though you have no interest from any other teams in the league I'm going to give you $27 MILLION!!!" "OH BOY SANTA!!!! You're the bestest guy in the whole wide world!!!"
August 29, 2005
Next MMM: Tuesday September 6, 2005 - NFC PREVIEW w/ PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!
AFC
Once again the AFC is stacked with good teams this year. On paper no less than 6-8 teams have legitimate arguments about going to the Super Bowl in Detroit.
AFC East
1. New York Jets
Record: 11-5
I just can't do too many previews and predictions without throwing in a few curveballs. The NFL is usually unpredictable but after last years preseason favorites went to the Super Bowl, I expect this year to be predictable in it's unpredictableness. Whatever that means. I'll start off by saying the Pats will not win the division and the Jets are the heir apparent. Chad Pennington is healthy after offseason shoulder surgery. Last years conservative offensive coordinator Paul Hackett was replaced by highly regarded yet still conservative (by this writer at least) ex-Titan offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger. The difference is Heimerdinger goes for TD's in the red zone a lot more than Hackett. Herm Edwards really scares me as he's probably the worst coach at in game time management otherwise I'd be saying 13-3. The secondary minus Law is the only weakness on an otherwise Super Bowl contender though. Look next week to see if this is the team I have coming out of the AFC.
2. New England Patriots
Record: 9-7
This could come back to bite me. But I watched a lot of New England the last 4 years, and every game Tedy Bruschi was making a big play or two. I just can't overcome that fact. The losses of both their coordinators has to take a toll also. If the argument is Bill Parcells has never won a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick, then Belichick has never won a Super Bowl without Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell! That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Corey Dillon comes down to Earth, and possibly a breakout season for David Givens.
3. Buffalo Bills
Record: 7-9
J.P. Losman takes over at QB and there could be some learning curves and bumbs along the way. Willis McGahee has blossomed into a stud RB and WR Lee Evans is ready to breakout. But the Bills may take a Bengals like "step back before taking another step forward". This young team will be very good in 2006 Gas long as Losman develops as he should.
4. Miami Dolphins
Record: 5-11
Gus Frerotte is the starter. Ricky Williams is out for the first four games. New head coach Nick Saban will probably start the "weeding" out process to find his type of playing. Look for this team to be a pest late in the year and possibly be a spoiler against someone.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 11-5
This team relies on two very good things to win. Running the ball with Jamal Lewis and defense. Over the course of a long season the Ravens will win their games as long as they continue to pound Jamal Lewis. The defense is led by the best defensive player in football. Ray...NOT...The best defensive player in the NFL is Ed Reed. He's all over the field and makes big plays consistently. Kyle Boller or Anthony Wright will be a big question all year in Baltimore. I have a problem with this defense post-Super Bowl though, as they seem to come up small in big spots, so you'll have to wait until next week to see if I pick them to go all the way.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 9-7
I really want to love the Bengals more but this defense just scares me. The offense is awesome. Carson Palmer should take another big step forward while throwing to TJ and Chad Johnson. This team has the potential to win the division, but I just can't predict it.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 8-8
Too many things went right for the Steelers last year. Duce gets hurt, Bettis turns 24 again. Maddox gets hurt, the rookie Ben Roethlisberger fills in and plays great (don't let his stats fool you, he played great in the regular season). A big loss to this team as I see it is Plaxico Burress. He really stretched the field for the running game and Hines Ward. The defense will feel the loss of Kendrell Bell, and I just don't see James Farrior having as big of a season as he did last year. Watch out for Willie Parker - could steal a lot of carries from Duce & Bus and is going to break out this year.
4. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
And starting at QB......Trent Dilfer! Just a mess of a team but GM Phil Savage has already done a nice roster turnaround.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5
Everyone knows the deal by now. Great offense, bad defense. The only way this formula wins a Super Bowl is if you turn that into an incredibly awesome offense and an average defense. I think they're very close to being an average defense. If this team gets home field, nobody's stopping them from Detroit. You'll have to wait until next week. Picking Peyton Manning is painful for me so this decision is really going to be difficult.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 10-6
This young team can flat out play. Jack Del Rio's team is young and has an awesome defense. This is a playoff team any way you shake it. If Byron Leftwich can emerge and find some WR's to throw the ball to, watch out this team can compete for the division.
3. Houston Texans
Record: 8-8
This team should be ready for a playoff push but is stuck in mediocrity. Andre Johnson is one of the best WR's in the game, and I really like David Carr. After that they have an inconsistent running game and a spotty defense. I wouldn't be surprised if they're in playoff contention most of the year though.
4. Tennessee Titans
Record: 7-9
This is a team that should go 3-13 this year. They're a debacle. But Jeff Fisher and Steve McNair will find a way to battle. The offense is surprisingly good, much better than I initially thought. The defense however is bad, much worse than I initially thought. Keith Bullock may have to make every tackle.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
What impresses me about this team is how they finished last year. After an abysmal start to the season they battled all year and showed a lot of heart. This team loves playing for Dick Vermiel, I think they've got plenty of talent to compete on both offense and defense. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson could have a combined 3,000 yards rushing, they're that good.
2. Denver Broncos
Record: 9-7
There's just something about this team that I like. The defense is improving and anyone who reads this knows I love Mike Shanahan. But you also know how much I dislike Jake Plummer. He's way too inconsistent for this team to advance very far.
3. San Diego Chargers
Record: 8-8
Too many things went right for the Chargers last year. The Steelers theory applies this year. Drew Brees was too good, and there's got to be rumblings of Phillip Rivers. LT is the best running back in the game in my opinion, but that's not going to be enough.
4. Oakland Raiders
Record: 7-9
No. That's the only word I can use. No. Kerry Collins is a nice QB but he turns the ball over way too much for this team to win. Randy Moss and Jerry Porter will be awesome, but the defense won't be. They'll be exciting but come up short.
NEXT WEEK: PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!
MLB/Phillies
After a disappointing 3-3 West Coast trip, the Phillies have begin their defining moment of the season (every series the rest of the way is the most important series) as they take on Wild Card rivals New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.
Positives:
- Jon Lieber doesn't stink anymore. I don't know what happened to Lieber for about a month or so, but he's definitely pitching much better.
- Bullpen. This sometimes overworked bullpen is phenomenal right now. Guys like Aquilino Lopez, Eude Brito, and Aaron Fultz have been great. Billy Wagner has been lights out for about 3 months now.
- Middle of the order: Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. They've been playing very consistently lately.
Negatives:
- Rheal Cormier. Imagine if you could go back into time, and replace every Cormier pitched game and replace it with Aaron Fultz. And then replace 95% of David Bell's AB's since June with Placido Polanco? How many more wins would the Phillies have?
- Starting Pitchers starting to crumble. Cory Lidle, who was terrible goes on the DL. He'll be replaced by Robinson Tejeda which is probably a good thing. But they can't afford to lose any more pitchers.
Overall, this team is playing slightly above average. The problem is, the Houston Astros are playing below average and have given up control of the Wild Card. I think it still will come down to the Astros and the Marlins in the end.
Around the MLB
The Wild Card is heating up great in the AL. The AL East once again will be a showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox.
There isn't a better pitcher in baseball than Johan Santana. Well, besides the inhuman Roger Clemens.
How is Todd Jones lights out for the Marlins? Someone please explain to me how the guy couldn't get a guy out to save his life last year, and now he's lights out.
There's rumors of Ken Griffey Jr. being traded to the Chicago White Sox. With the way he's been playing this year, which is they way he was playing in the late 90's, that could really shift the balance of power to the White Sox in the AL. The White Sox still have Dustin Hermanson as their closer though (his ERA is 1.68!).
NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser
- I was watching Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock being interviewed on Comcast and he was relaying his experiences from some of the NHL scrimmages in Canada. It was a lot of the NHLers first experience with the new rules. The word Hitchcock kept using over and over again was "chaos". A lot of up and down fast breaking action. Also, Martin Broduer was the only goalie that thought to bring the new smaller goalie equipment. Hitchcock said Broduer looked significantly smaller in the net. This should be an interesting year.
- What the hell are the Atlanta Thrashers thinking? I was looking at this grid in the Hockey News last week that had various league wide ticket prices over the last few years. I'm looking at the ticket prices for all the teams in the league and generally checking out how drastically the teams have cut prices for this year. I was a little disappointed that a few teams (Vancouver, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Minnesota, Detroit, Edmonton) kept their ticket prices the same. The Calgary Flames kept their prices the same but it's hard to complain about them because they've had the lowest average ticket prices in the league for years. You can see a Flames game for $13.48. Of course you're in the rafters but what do you expect for $13.48? So I get to the Thrashers; they RAISED ticket prices an average of 4% across the board. Yes I know, 4% is nothing, but it's like they say in Goodfellas "you gotta keep up appearances!!" You mean to tell me that Ted Turner needs that 4% that bad? Just a stupid move.
- The Chicago Blackhawks hired ex-Olympic speed skating gold medalist Dan Jansen to teach skating. Jansen was interviewed by ESPN News about the hiring. So I watched the interview and it was really interesting. The interviewer asked Jansen how exactly do you "teach" skating to professional hockey players. Jansen said "99% of the guys that come into the NHL derive all their skating power from their legs, they shouldn't. These guys can only last a minute or so on the ice during a shift before fatigue sets in. This makes no sense because these guys can run at least 5 miles at a fast clip so they should be able to skate at break neck speed for a few minutes at least before getting tired. Skating power should come from your core. It's about transferring weight, long strides, even proper breathing". You could tell Jansen was passionate about the subject and that he knows his stuff. It's a shame he has to work for a Mickey Mouse franchise like the Blackhawks.
- I know everyone's dying to hear my opinion of the new show 'Tommy Lee Goes To College'. Well my review is three words long...dead on arrival. Here's the problem, Tommy met with the dean of the school 30 seconds into the first episode and the dean told that he couldn't drink on campus and there was to be no canoodling with coeds. Well then what's the point of this show? Isn't that why we want to see Tommy Lee in college? I don't know about you but I wanted to see Tommy roll into a frat party, drink the frat kids under the table, then take home like 3 cheerleaders. And the next day do it again like it was the Dr. Feelgood tour.
- Do you ever think that Sixers GM Billy King goes to work decked out from head to toe in a Santa Clause outfit? "HO HO HO!!! Merry Christmas everyone!!" (Enter Samuel Dalembert who sits on Billy Kings leg) "Hello little Sammy. What would you like for Christmas?" "Well Santa, I'd like a contract that's 6 years long for $58 million". "HO HO HO....well little Sammy have you been good this year?" "I was OK. I only averaged 6.9 points per game and my hands were terrible but I was pretty good defensively. And I'm sure I'll be good in the future!!" (Dalembert puts his head on Billy Santa King's shoulder) "I couldn't agree more!! HO HO HO!! Here's that contract Sammy!! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!" "Thanks Santa!! You're the greatest!!!" (Dalembert leaves...Kyle Korver enters and sits on King's leg) "Merry Christmas little Kyle!!! What would you like for Christmas!?!?" "Well Santa, I'd like a contract that 6 years for $20 million". "HO HO HO!!!! Have you been good this year little Kyle?" "Well, on the court I was OK. But off the court I was a good soldier and always kept my mouth shut. And I never ever complained about playing time". "Agreed. And you know what little Kyle? Since you're such a nice little boy and even though you have no interest from any other teams in the league I'm going to give you $27 MILLION!!!" "OH BOY SANTA!!!! You're the bestest guy in the whole wide world!!!"
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 8:37 AM
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