Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Monday Morning Mehta 9/6/05

Edition # 130
September 6, 2005

www.mondaymorningmehta.blogspot.com

NFL kickoff is two days away. In less than 60 hours, we'll be watching Randy Moss do something stupid again. Add in the baseball stretch run and playoffs, and you have what is in my opinion the best two months in sports (very close to March Madness and baseball opening day).

NFC PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 11-5
There is absolutely no homerism here when I say, this team is stacked. There isn't any more talented team in the NFL. Pro Bowlers at just about every single position on the field. Offensively, this team will continue to air it up as often as possible, leaving people like me wishing they'd run the ball more, as they put up 24-30 points every week. Defensively, this team has become one of the best in the league. Run stopping no longer seems to be an issue with Jeremiah Trotter playing as well as he has. Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown are emerging as the best cornerback duo in the league. Add that to a good special teams unit, and you have the makings of a great team. The only X-factor is the letdown theory. Teams losing the Super Bowl has historically not faired well the following year, but this team seems to buck every trend against them. Home field advantage should be well within their sights once again, and a 14-2 season isn't out of the question, but I just can't see this team being able to get up for games every single week especially in a weak NFC. They'll lose a head scratcher here and there, but overall, too good not to win at least 11 games.

2. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 10-6
Bill Parcells endured his 5th losing season as head coach last year. After his previous 4, his combined record the next season is 40-24. He's won with the extremely overrated Drew Bledsoe before, so Parcells should be fine at the QB position in the regular season. Julius Jones is going to be a monster this year, becoming one of the top backs in league.

3. Washington Redskins
Record: 7-9
Joe Gibbs has only had one other losing season before last. I got to think if he has another one, he's going to just quit or move onto another franchise. Patrick Ramsey would like to have a Drew Brees type of year (with Jason Campbell waiting in the wings) but the offensive line is still not where Gibbs will want it.

4. New York Giants
Record: 6-10
Right now I'm wearing a Giants jersey. After losing a stupid bet in the Super Bowl, I've been forced to wear a Giants shirt/jersey for one full week. I hate the Giants more than the Cowboys. I hate Jeremy Shockey and I hate Giants fans. That is all.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 10-6
Generally I don't like going with the "media hyped" teams. The Vikings are definitely that team this year. Some great pickups on defense (Fred Smoot, Fred Williams) and losing a disgruntled WR in Randy Moss. But Nate Burleson looks ready to take over the # 1 WR slot and they have good talent after him (Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson and newly signed Koren Robinson). Daunte Culpepper will have a lot to prove this year, as will head coach Mike Tice.

2. Green Bay Packers
Record: 8-8
I really like 8 & 8 for this team for many reasons. The offensive line has to take a plunge with the losses of Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle. But they added Adrian Klemm and Matt O'Dwyer (slight disadvantage). Brett Favre is very inconsistent now. He's gone from Ahman Green left, Ahman Green right, Ahman Green up the middle (which won games) to Javon Walker for 30, Donald Driver for 15, etc. If they run the ball like they did in 2002-2003, they'll be a playoff team. If they rely on Favre, they'll be mediocre.

3. Detroit Lions
Record: 6-10
I've killed Joey Harrington for years in this column. I've always said he's just not a top 15 QB in this league (he was drafted third overall) and I still stand by that. But how in the world can a QB NOT be successful in this offense. Roy Williams and Charles Rogers are his WR's with Kevin Jones his RB and Marcus Pollard his TE. They've also got an improving offensive line. But the defense stinks and Harrington will make bonehead mistakes and the WR's drop way too many balls. Hey, at least Matt Millen won't be 4-12 again?

4. Chicago Bears
Record: 4-12
Kyle Orton, a 4th rounder is starting for this team. Unless scouts around football fell asleep at the draft last year, I don't think Orton's going to enjoy much success this early in his professional career.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 10-6
As most MMM readers are aware, I'm a big Michael Vick fan. He may not put up a 102.7 passer rating, but what the heck does that stat mean anyway. When Vick is on the field, the Falcons win. Unless you have a defense like Tampa (used to), Carolina, or the Eagles, Vick can't be stopped from running all over the field creating havoc, nor can defenses stop Warrick Dunn & TJ Duckett. This defense has also become one of the best in the NFL.

2. Carolina Panthers
Record: 9-7
I expect this to be another year where 8-8 or 9-7 will make the playoffs in the NFC, and Carolina will be right around that number. They're probably a playoff team because of their defense, but the running game will need to be stable in order for them to win consistently. Stephen Davis will probably start week 1 but they really should give DeShaun Foster the job. Look for QB Jake Delhomme to put up nice numbers with 2 very underrated WR's (Steve Smith & Keary Colbert).

3. New Orleans Saints
Record: 8-8
I really have no idea what effect not having a home will have on this team this year. All signs point to the negative, but the Saints have never really been that great at home anyway. This team has the potential to be a very good playoff team, especially the way they can bully people at the line of scrimmage. If Aaron Brooks stops making mistakes (a BIG if), they can win 10 games. I just don't see that happening though.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs
Record: 6-10
Cadillac Williams left, Cadillac right, Cadillac up the middle. That seems to be Jon Gruden's game plan this year for the Bucs. Let's see what the rookie can do, because Brian Griese certainly isn't winning you too many games. One of my favorite WR's in the league is Michael Clayton.

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams
Record: 9-7
This is about as painful as it gets. The NFC West is so bad I seriously thought about putting Arizona here. But this offense is too good and probably will give this team a win or two they shouldn't get. On the flip side, the defense is so bad, they have very little shot of winning when they face stiffer competition. Look out for Stephen Jackson to have a monster season.

2. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8-8
I want to like this team more, but I just can't. I am not a Mike Holmgren fan, and Matt Hasselbeck who I've always liked, let me down too much last year. I need them to show me they can win again before I believe. They also have a very tough schedule even in a cupcake division.

3. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 8-8
I may adopt this team as my favorite non-Eagle team. Dennis Green can win in the regular season there should be no bones about that. His problems come in the playoffs. Kurt Warner may be a shell of what he used to be, but just look at the Giants offense before and after he was removed. JJ Arrington should emerge as a quality RB and the WR's are just awesome (Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald). Toss a coin, any of the above 3 teams can win this division.

4. San Francisco
Record: 3-13
Things are just ugly here. Don't even know where to start.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC:
Division winners: Jets, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs
Wild Card: Jaguars, Patriots
I could see a scenario where the Patriots have to go to Indy to play a playoff game. I could see Indy unleashing all their frustrations and smoking them if that's the case. Indy won't win in Foxboro, but I like their chances in a big spot at home. I think a Jets/Colts AFC Championship game is in the future.

NFC:
Division winners: Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, Rams
Wild Card: Panthers, Cowboys
The Cowboys defense is good enough to challenge any team in this conference. An Eagles/Cowboys NFC Championship isn't out of the question, but seedings will come into play there. I definitely see the Eagles coming out of the NFC once again, all homerism aside they're the best team in the NFC almost by far.

Super Bowl
I'll stick to the Ed Wasser theory of "Don't think too hard" and say the Eagles and Colts will face off in Super Bowl XL. Peyton Manning or Donovan McNabb will get the monkey lifted off his back.

THE PICK: Eagles 27 Colts 17 (Did you really think I going to a: pick against the Eagles and b: pick for Peyton Manning??)

MLB/Phillies

After starting off the 12 game roadtrip 6-4, the Phillies looked poised to really make a statement and assert themselves as the favorites for the NL Wild Card. Along came John Patterson, Esteban Loiaza, and Andy Pettitte, next thing you know the Phils are looking up at the leaders of the NL Wild Card.

The Phils now face what are the two biggest games of their year tonight and tomorrow. Must win games to make any sort of run for the wildcard. Losing 2 out of 3 at home to another contender at this stage of the season would be debilitating. I like their chances the rest of the way, believe it or not but I'm not going too crazy, don't worry. Here's some reasons:

- The pitching has been great. Even Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd didn't pitch too badly. The bullpen has been great, can't complain about them (minus a couple Madson & Urbina blips).

- The other teams also have huge gaping holes. Astros have no offense outside of Biggio, Berkman and Ensberg. The Nationals have no offense. The Marlins are the most inconsistent team in the NL. The Mets offense goes through stretches where they don't score.

- Nobody wants to take charge. Every team has had the opportunity to take control of the wildcard race, and all have respectfully declined.

Overall, I'll stand by my earlier comments that it will be Florida and Houston the last weekend of the season battling it out for the Wild Card. But there's no reason the Phillies won't be playing meaningful games the last week of the year.

Around the League

Lost in the NL race is the great race brewing in the AL. The Yankees and Red Sox face off this weekend in what should be a great series once again. The A's/Angels will also come down to the wire with the surprise Cleveland Indians battling for the last playoff spot.

Don't look now, but the Giants are only 5 games behind the Padres (they play them 7 times the rest of the way). Barry Bonds is rumored to be close to being cleared to play as early as today, but likely sometime this week.

NHL Week in Review By: Ed Wasser

- All's quiet on the NHL front. Next week I'll have my much anticipated preseason prediction article entitled "This Is What I Think Will Happen In The NHL This Year; If It Doesn't Then at Least It Was Free".

- JOY TO THE WORLD!!!!! Finally a judge with some cajones!!! Dennis Pauley threw a quarter at 76er Allen Iverson during the last season's playoffs in Detroit. The quarter hit Iverson on the back of the head. In the resulting sentencing phase of the trial the presiding judge decided enough was enough. Pauley was sentenced to 5 days in jail, 10 weekends of community service, 2 years of probation, and (get this) for those 2 years of probation Pauley can not have any alcohol PERIOD!! Nice. That's the way it's done Your Honor!! Well done.

- A little nugget from last Tuesday's Philadelphia Daily News that you should think about when you start to wonder what high profile free agents the Phillies will pursue this winter. The Phillies attendance in 2005, after 67 home dates, is off 502,679 people from 2004. That's an average of 7503 tickets per game. So this winter when the Phillies have a press conference announcing the free agent signings of Joe McEwing or David Weathers or some other stiffs like they're the second coming of Mays and Koufax don't say I didn't warn you.

- Remember the great home run race of 1997 when Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa held the nation in the palm of their hands with their chemically fueled dash for the Roger Maris record? Well, a race just as tight and just as gripping is currently going on in Major League Baseball. I don't know who holds the major league record for the most at bats that resulted in a city of baseball fans yelling "SON OF A B$&@&!!!" in a fiery tone at their television sets but I'd bet that David Bell and Mike Lieberthal are closing in on that record at an alarming rate.

- Speaking of the Phillies....you know how when a holiday weekend comes to a close you get into that lazy "I don't feel like moving from the couch" feeling on the last night before the day you have to go back to work? Sure, everybody knows that feeling. Ohhhh...wait, almost everyone. The Phillies scheduled their Labor Day game for a 7:05 start time. Why? Wouldn't it be nicer for the fans and everyone involved to have that be a day game? Especially with school the next day? Of course it would but that's why the Phillies are the Phillies. The most fan unfriendly team in this city.

- From the world of Bada Boom Racing. First things first, we have a new edition to the family, a 2 year old gelding named Second Story Man. I was looking at entries and I saw that this horse had a lot of pedigree similarities as our first horse Fairway Miss. They have the same father but different mothers. Plus I saw that he was bought at an auction and they were trying to sneak him into a claiming race. So I told the trainer everything I found, my old man told the trainer to grab him if he looks OK, which he did, so we claimed him. What sucks is that Second Story Man won the race we claimed him in so he can't race for us as a maiden. He should debut for us in about 2 weeks.

- FYI....I learned two important rules about claiming horses. More like gentlemen's agreements. 1.) Never claim a horse from a trainer that shares a barn with you. It's just bad taste to watch how a horse is getting trained day in and day out then take it from your neighbor. And if the trainer you take the horse from has picked up a few pointers from old school horsemen you might wind up with broken legs. 2.) You never claim a trainer's last horse. You just don't want to put a guy out of business.

- Shocking fact of the week....Dee Snider of Twisted Sister is 60 years old. Just thought I'd mention it.

- So Clemente ran yesterday in the 4th race at Philadelphia Park, 5 furlong race on the turf with Rodrigo Madrigal in the irons. Yesterday was Pennsylvania Derby day so the place was packed which made it extra exciting not to mention that Clemente was going off as the favorite. Oh...before I forget, a few weeks ago I mentioned that Clemente had been nominated for a stakes race at Penn National Race Track. He got in as an alternate entry but the competition was way too steep. There were a few horses in the race that have taken down a couple $100,000 purses so couple that with a distance that's unfamiliar to Clemente (a mile and a sixteenth) and we decided to scratch him out and have him run in a more winnable race. Back to business, Clemente broke out of the gate well and was lying second most of the race when Rodrigo fell apart. It was one of, if not thee, worst rides we ever had on one of our horses. Rod allowed Clemente to drift in against the rail, then drift back out again. Then, with the race still winnable, Rod almost dropped his stick (a.k.a. - whip) and when he finally stopped fumbling the stick it was too late, Clemente finished third. The stick fumbling was one thing, that was a physical mistake that can't be helped. But letting Clemente drift in and out was unacceptable. The trainer was so pissed he didn't even speak to Rodrigo afterward. I think Rod may have ridden himself right out of a job, we'll see.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home