Monday Morning Mehta 10/23/06
Edition # 181
October 23, 2006
For the first time in months we have the full staff of MMM reporting this week. Derreck Sura is back with the NBA & Ed Wasser returns from Nawlins with his column. Eagles/NFL
In typical Philadelphia heartbreaking fashion the Eagles lose on the 2nd longest FG in NFL history (by distance, yes I know two guys kicked 63 yarders but does Jason Elam's really count? That's like me saying I hit my driver 280 yards in Denver so that means that's what I normally hit it). Anyway, let's get back to the Eagles...
Game Negatives:
- The missed 3 points (or 7) at the end of the first half. Even the dumbest of football fans knew not to throw that ball anywhere but in the endzone or out of bounds. So why does our QB not know this? He did the same exact thing last year against San Diego and Washington. I have no answer to this.
- Eagles & Donovan McNabb in the first 40 minutes of the game. Yes this is really a repeat of the above but I think we need to separate the two. Can we just sign Ronde Barber and put him on offense? McNabb to Barber is a sure 7 points.
- [Broken record] RUN THE BALL!! The Eagles ran the ball 21 times in this game (I don't count McNabb's 8 'rushes'. They're really just pass plays which McNabb improvises). So 21 rushes for 132 yards. Since I am a math expert I can tell you that's over 6 yards a carry. Obvious answer is "But they were behind 17-0, they can't keep running the ball". To that I say in the first half when the game was mostly scoreless or only 7-0, the Eagles attempted to throw the ball 24 times vs. 14 runs. ENOUGH PASSING!! The Bucs are clearly not the defensive team they were in years past. A good team rushes the ball 35-40 times yesterday and goes home victorious. Last week I said the Eagles have turned into Mike Martz's offense and this only verified my beliefs. They're one step away from the run and shoot.
- Special Teams. Giving up the 37 yard kick return to Michael Pittman immediately after the Eagles took their only lead of the game was a back breaker. This return units look lost on both sides of the ball right now.
Game Positives:
- Eagles & McNabb's final 20 minutes. I don't know what the heck is with the puking so I'm not even going to venture a guess. I do know he looked very good late in the game.
- Brian Westbrook. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I don't care if he practices or not. When he's been in the game this year he's been explosive. Keep him out of practice all week for all I care.
- No Michael Lewis. The Eagles have come to their senses with this guy. I only wish Jim Johnson had read my analysis on M Lew years ago.
So after 7 games in which the Eagles have been favorites, they stand at 4-3. The Eagles will be favored again in the next 3 games but I'd just like to see some solid football at this point. These helter skelter games are killing me.
Reggie Brown is turning into an excellent WR and it's great to watch his growth. Besides him, everyone's a dropfest. I have a ex-co-worker who went to U. of Michigan, lives in Michigan, is a Michigan season ticket holder, well, you get the point. When the Eagles drafted Jason Avant I asked him what's up with this guy? "Not much speed but great hands". Is it a disease to put on an Eagles uniform as a WR? Only the strongest survive??
Donte Stallworth??
Around the League
Best Game: Pitt/Atlanta. Slam Dunk. If you were looking for defense you came to the wrong place. The Steelers are close to being buried in the AFC. It's still early to call them dead, but if they get loss # 5 before Halloween (luckily they have Oakland next week), I think they'd need a miracle to get back into the playoffs.
Smoke/Mirrors Award: The Jets stand at 4-3 after beating the Lions, Bills, Dolphis and Titans. Not exactly stellar competition but Chad Pennington is looking very solid once again.
My AFC pick: The Jaguars lose to the Texans in an awful display of football. The Jags are getting decimated with injuries but they still should have beaten the Texans. Unfortunately for the Eagles the Jaguars are facing a huge game next week and both teams must have a victory, and the loser gets their 4th loss of the season and we're not even into November.
Worst display of football: Arizona. I'd be shocked if Dennis Green isn't gone after the season and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Green is gone very soon and replaced with Jim Fassel. Not that it would help any.
Best win: Bengals over Panthers. The Bengals needed to beat a good team to feel good about themselves again. If this offensive line plays the way it did yesterday (only 2 sacks allowed and 4 yards per carry), this is a Super Bowl team.
I thought this was a weak week for games this week, but next week is an excellent week. Jax @ Philly, Atl @ Cincy, Indy @ Denver, Dallas @ Carolina are all matchups of potential playoff teams.
Baseball - The WORLD Series
The WORLD Series began this weekend with that much ballyhooed rematch of the 1968 WORLD Series between the Tigers and Cards. I expect this to be one of the lower rated World Series in recent history unless of course there is a Game 7, which I suspect there may be. At this point, it's a 5 game series, with the Cards having "home field" and Chris Carpenter slated to pitch potentially 2 games.
At this point I really don't care who wins (blatant lie - if you read my MLB preview you know who I want to win so that I can pat myself on the back next week). I just want a good, long series, and hopefully a "staple" game which means a great ninth inning comeback or an extra innings walk off, etc.
NBA - Derreck Sura
I'm back and ready to start a new season with my Eastern Conference Preview. Last year I thought the East was making strides toward evening out the balance of power between the Conferences. I was wrong, and I don't expect it to be any different this season. The quality teams on the Right Coast are not as good as the upper echelon teams out West. Further more, the mediocre and bad clubs in the East are also a notch below their Left Coast brethren. Don't get me wrong here. The competition inside of the Eastern Conference itself will still be good because the teams are pretty tightly bunched talent wise, even though they are not on par with the West as a whole.
I have many changes in store for you as I begin my fourth full NBA campaign as a MMM writer (I burst onto the scene at the end of the '02-03 season). The first of which is dedicated to long time subscriber Douglas Morgan. Gone are his hated "Eyes On" and "Now or Never" categories that have graced all my previous pre-season pieces. Let's get down to business.
1. Miami Heat
What Can Go Right - They avoid injuries, complacency and overconfidence while everyone stays on the same page and they win another Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - They coast through large portions of the regular season costing themselves home court advantage. And/or a few of their older players succumb to injuries sapping the team's depth.
Outlook - Knowing what we do about Shaquille O'Neal's fondness for playing hard over the course of 82 games, I think it's safe to say the Heat won't run away and hide from the rest of the conference. Factor in starting PG Jason Williams being out until at least December as he recovers from right patella tendon surgery (38 year old Gary Payton is their only proven backup), and it's not hard to see Miami getting off to a slow start that lingers.
Then there's also Dwyane Wade's mysterious right hand injury from the NBA Finals to consider. Officially the MRI taken on 10/4 was "negative", but even Wade admits that he still has pain and swelling on the top of his shooting hand when lifting weights or playing basketball.
Even with all that, and the lack of any substantial roster additions, the Heat are easily one of the three best teams in the East, and should coast into the second round of the playoffs. After that it can get a little dicey for them. Miami's title defense could come to a screeching halt in the second round depending on match ups.
I'm sure the company line all year will be "We don't need home court advantage to win a ring." Umm, OK, if youz say so. The facts are that this team isn't getting any younger (only Wade and Udonis Haslem were born in the 80's amongst their regulars) and lacks athleticism. When you look at the two teams I have right behind them, they have both depth and athleticism in abundance. That's why I think the Heat will need home court and health if they are going to repeat.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
What Can Go Right - Their shooters start making 3-pointers (25th in the league last season at 33.9%) and LeBron James continues his ascent to immortality by guiding his squad to a deep playoff run.
What Can Go Wrong - An injury to Bron. The Cavs are a deep team overall, but there's no replacing James' contributions if he goes down.
Outlook - I'm sure many of you think this is too high for such an inexperienced team, but remember that Cleveland had the third most wins (50) in the East last year. It's also important that in their second year in coach Mike Brown's system only David Wesley, Scot Pollard and possibly rookie Shannon Brown will be new to the rotation. Continuity is key for such a young franchise (players, coach and owner) on the rise. They are two deep at every position, have a nice mix of youth and experience and can play big or small and fast or slow. That kind of versatility is extremely valuable in today's NBA.
Two things worry me about the Cavs though. The first is the afore mentioned Coach Brown. I'm not a big fan of what I've seen out of him so far. Granted he was a rookie himself last year, but his offensive playbook consisted of give the ball to LeBron and hope he creates the shot for himself or someone else way too much in crunch time. There's also the issue of wearing James out (he played 42.5 mpg last season, good for 2nd overall). It's very tempting to ride Bron like that because he is so young, but that's not the smartest course of action for the franchise long term.
The next is their team defense. Cleveland was 18th in opponent's field goal percentage (OPPFG%) at 45.5% last season. Not bad, but also not good enough to win a championship. Much of this starts with James himself. I have no doubt he can be a great defender if he puts his mind to it, but he has to have that desire. Meanwhile, if he can just show a little more emotion and intensity on that end, his team would follow.
If the Cavs can get a little more creativity out of Mike Brown and ratchet up the D a notch or two, they have a very good chance of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to the Finals in the playoffs.
3. Chicago Bulls
What Can Go Right - They remain one of the top defensive teams in the NBA while coach Scott Skiles seamlessly blends their six new players into his system and decides on a permanent rotation for once.
What Can Go Wrong - They continue to misfire on offense (22nd overall last year with 44.6% shooting from the field) and can't come up with a legitimate go to guy in close games.
Outlook - The Bulls were the talk of the summer. They signed Ben Wallace & Adrian Griffin, drafted Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha and traded for P.J. Brown & Viktor Khryapa (a personal fav). What do all these players have in common? They play defense and give 100% effort all the time. In other words, Skiles' type of guys. Big Ben and P.J. are aging, but should have enough in the tank to do what they are asked in Chicago. As an added bonus they can both tutor their replacements (Tyrus and Viktor) at practice. Griffin and Sefolosha give the Bulls' backcourt the size, length and athleticism it has been missing for a long while now. Chicago has led the league in OPPFG% for the past two seasons, and it says here that their D will be even better this year.
The Bulls are deep at the 1 through 3 positions, but a little thin up front with quality and/or experienced big men. Another concern of mine is that they are mainly a jump shooting team. You know what they say, "Live by the J, die by the J." Sure Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and maybe Luol Deng can get to the basket and create, but they'd all prefer to hoist mid-range J's (as would Andres Nocioni). Being that those four are their best offensive players, that doesn't bode well on nights when they can't throw it in the ocean. I also wonder just who is going to score in the low post for this club?
Make no mistake though, Chicago will play hard every single night and be the team that no one wants to face in the playoffs because of their team defense. That D gives them a punchers chance against anyone in the post season, but until their offense becomes a little more balanced it's hard to see them being serious contenders for the crown.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to the Eastern Conference Finals in the playoffs.
4. New Jersey Nets
What Can Go Right - Their "Big 4" is the picture of health throughout the season and they develop some type of bench making them one of the most dangerous teams in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - One of the "Big 4" gets hurt and is out for an extended period of time.
Outlook - The Nets have a very solid starting five, an underrated coach and play great defense (7th overall at 43.9% in OPPFG% last season). Their problem quite simply is depth. Relying on your sixth man is not a bad thing, but when it's soon to be 40 (on 12/16) year old Clifford Robinson, that's a problem. After Uncle Spliffy it's rookies Marcus Williams and Hassan Adams followed by journeymen like Mikki Moore and Eddie House. Ick.
I suppose Williams will be fine in his role spelling Jason Kidd, but Adams is no more then an energy guy, and everyone knows what to expect from the other three by now. The one saving grace on the pine for NJ might be second year swingman Antoine Wright. He was awful as a rookie, but has shown a little more confidence thus far in the pre-season. If he can produce some instant offense in spurts for them off the bench that would be huge.
The Nets are what they are. Which is a very good regular season team (when healthy) in an awful division. I know President Rob Thorn retooled the entire bench (sans Cliff) this off season, but all the guys he brought in are either mediocre or unproven. Maybe one or two of them pan out and have career year's, but that's a long shot at best. I suppose it's possible that NJ catches lightning in a bottle and goes deep into the playoffs, just highly unlikely.
Predicted Finish - They are locked into the 4th seed as the third division winner, but could finish with the sixth best record overall in the East. As for the playoffs, they most likely will be out in the first round, but could sneak into the second round with a favorable match up.
5. Detroit Pistons
What Can Go Right - Their five main players avoid the injury bug, they don't miss a beat without Ben Wallace and they remain a dominant team in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - Injuries finally catch up with them and/or coach Flip Saunders loses control of the locker room.
Outlook - There's no doubt that the Pistons are still a quality club, but c'mon, let's be realistic here. The meltdown that started last year in the 4th quarter of game two in the second round of the playoffs has to have had some type of detrimental effect on the club's once impenetrable psyche. If you take that air of invincibility away from Detroit, what do they have left? Yes they still have good chemistry as a whole, but the long time face of the franchise is elsewhere and their defense already wasn't what it used to be last season.
Another thing for Pistons' fans to worry about is the second unit. After Antonio McDyess it's a bunch of has been's and never were's. I mean Lindsey Hunter, Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino and the ancient Dale Davis? Ouch! If any of those guys are asked to produce on a regular basis as fill in starters, that is big trouble for Motown.
As you can probably tell by now, I'm not very optimistic about Detroit's prospects this year. I always thought this group was entirely overrated by the media, even when they won it all, but there's no denying that they are on the down swing now. Something also tells me that they are a five game losing streak away from tuning Saunders out completely. The good thing for the Pistons is that they play in the East, which pretty much guarantees them a playoff spot.
Predicted Finish - Won't be anywhere higher then the 5th seed, but could have the fourth best record in the conference. If they are clicking on all cylinders, and get some favorable match ups, the Eastern Conference Finals is their ceiling in the playoffs.
6. Indiana Pacers
What Can Go Right - Jamaal Tinsley and Jermaine O'Neal stay healthy for once while coach Rick Carlisle loosens up the reigns on his offense and takes advantage of all his athletes making them one of the most exciting teams to watch in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - They have an off court distraction early in the season for the third consecutive year. Oh, wait...
Outlook - The starting front court of Danny Granger (SF), Al Harrington (PF) and O'Neal (C) is as versatile and athletic as they come and will be a match up nightmare for the opposition on most nights. Newcomers Marquis Daniels and Maceo Baston give Carlisle some multi-positional guys off the bench as well. After Daniels the swing man depth is a little inexperienced, but the addition of veteran Darrell Armstrong is a nice insurance policy at the point for the oft injured Tinsley and the inconsistent Sarunas Jasikevicius.
Other then injuries and the off court stuff that is perennially hanging around the Trail Pacers (did I really just type that?), my main concern for Indy is Carlisle. That's hard for me to type too because I think Rick is one of the best coaches in the business. He's saying all the right things now about playing fast and coaching to his squad's strengths, but will he really do it? I'm not so sure. It's a tough sell for me that a defensive oriented control freak coach is suddenly going to become Paul Westhead (former Loyola Marymount coach). Carlisle signed a multiyear contract extension on 10/5 where he also was bestowed the title of executive vice president of basketball operations. So it seems management doesn't share my concerns.
Stephen Jackson being an absolute moron aside, the Pacers should be an entirely different club this year. They are another deep team that can play big or small, fast or slow. That should help offset some of the growing pains they are bound to have with so many new faces. However, as is always the case with them, you just never know what's going to happen next. The unpredictable nature of injuries and off court behavior, coupled with a new style of play, relegates Indiana to an entertaining team that is a few years away from being serious contenders.
Predicted Finish - Could go as low as 7th in the regular season, but if things go right they could end up with the fourth best record in the East. Most likely one and done in the playoffs, but the second round is not out of the question.
7. Orlando Magic
What Can Go Right - Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic become the modern day twin towers, Jameer Nelson proves he's a top flight floor general and Grant Hill has a true contract year performance.
What Can Go Wrong - They have some struggles early on and the weight of expectations starts to wear on the youngsters.
Outlook - The Magic are well stocked at the two most difficult spots to fill in the NBA, point guard and center. The D & D boys (you heard it here first) should be manning the middle in Central Florida for the next decade plus. There aren't enough minutes to go around at the point for Nelson, Carlos Arroyo and Travis Diener. I'm not even mentioning the depth at small forward either, where Hill is joined by Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza.
The good news ends there, as the talent drop off on the rest of the roster is steep. The big men after Howard and Milicic are all well past their collective prime's. An even bigger weakness for Orlando is at shooting guard. Keith Bogans, Keyon Dooling and rookie J.J. Redick don't really add up to contender status. The Magic are an average defensive team as well (15th in OPPFG% at 45.4% last year). The D they can work on. But the outside shooting? Not so much.
Orlando had evolved into "my team" by the end of last season, and I don't see that changing this year. The Magic are the prototypical team I love to watch. Young, on the rise and not too full of themselves to where they don't play hard every night. My boys finished last year on a 12-3 tear, and while I don't expect them to win at an 80% clip for the upcoming season, a .500 record is a realistic goal.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 6th to 8th in the conference and their first playoff berth since 2002-2003.
8. Washington Wizards
What Can Go Right - Their "Big 3" continues to light up the scoreboard and they get some type of consistent production from their bench.
What Can Go Wrong - They have a significant injury to one of the "Big 3" and/or their defense does not improve.
Outlook - Team President Ernie Grunfeld made two shrewd moves this summer. The first was signing Darius Songaila. He's not great or anything, but Songaila gives the Wiz a nice back up PF who can provide some much needed offense off the pine. The next was signing DeShawn Stevenson to a two year deal at the league minimum. (Why Stevenson opted out of the 3 million dollar last year of his previous contract, and then proceeded to turn down a 3 year 10 million dollar offer, we'll never know.) DeShawn will slide right into the defensive stopper role vacated by Jared Jeffries. The last key "addition" to the rotation is the return from injury of Jarvis Hayes. If he can stay healthy (which would be a first) and be an instant offense type guy as a sixth man, Washington will be able to put points on the board with anyone.
The Wiz are an entertaining team to watch most nights, but they have a tendency to only play hard on one end of the floor. Their defense ranked 23rd in OPPFG% (46.5%) last season, and that must get better if they want to play with the big boys come May.
Washington is really only a marginal playoff team in my mind, and the reason I picked them 8th is because their scoring ability separates them from the rest of the field. They don't defend or rebound particularly well, and aren't exactly deep. For those reasons it would not surprise me to see them miss the playoffs entirely.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 7th to 10th in the conference and a first round exit in the playoffs.
9. Milwaukee Bucks
What Can Go Right - Their new rotation develops a great chemistry and they are a solid playoff team in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - They get off to a slow start dues to their injuries and never recover.
Outlook - I like this Bucks club on paper quite a bit, but losing starting C Andrew Bogut for 6 to 8 weeks to a lower left leg strain is a big blow. Then to lose starting SF
Bobby Simmons four days later for *at least* a month to a bruised right heel is adding salt to the wound. Milwaukee does have adequate role players backing them up in Dan Gadzuric and Ruben Patterson respectively, but that substantially cripples their overall depth.
Other then Simmons and Michael Redd, every player in the Bucks' ten man rotation has a new role this season. That's why it's more then the two starters being out that hurts. When they get back, then they have to be worked back into the lineup, and the whole training camp process begins anew.
I liked Milwaukee's depth before these injuries, but what I didn't like was their defense (24th in OPPFG% at 46.6% last year) and coach Terry Stotts. Those two problems really go hand in hand too. Stotts is the typical "nice guy" coach who doesn't really get on his guys. That's all well and good in some situations, but GM Larry Harris has put together a quality roster, and results on the court are to be expected now.
There's no doubt that the Bucks have what it takes to be an Eastern Conference playoff team, but a lot of that depends on how everyone adjusts to their new roles and what kind of team chemistry develops. If things break right Milwaukee will be a well rounded team that can play with anybody. If they get off to a slow start though, look out Terry Stotts. The injuries may buy Stotts some time, but his days are numbered, and it wouldn't shock me if he didn't last the season.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 7th to 11th in the conference and out in the first round.
10. Boston Celtics
What Can Go Right - Among their plethora of young talent, two or three have break out season's and they squeak into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - The youngsters don't develop and Paul Pierce regrets signing that three year contract extension.
Outlook - After a miserable sophomore slump, now is the time for Al Jefferson to deliver on some of that promise he showed during his rookie campaign and become a big time player. I guess you could say the same about Tony Allen, Kendrick Perkins, Sebastian Telfair or Delonte West, but Al Jef is the only one with superstar potential in my mind. I know his injuries are what everyone blames last season's struggles on, but I saw a bit of an indifferent attitude from him when he did play, and that worries me. Hey Al, you need to understand that you have done NOTHING in the league yet, so get to work.
The Celts didn't play defense or rebound all that well last year, but a lot of that is because they are so young. Given time they do have the personnel to play D and board at high level. Where they did excel last season was shooting the ball. The boys from Beantown ranked no lower then 13th in free throw, 3-point and field goal percentage. Their highest rank being 5th overall from the field at 46.7%. What that tells me is if they clamp down on defense, they might actually be a formidable club in the East
It's hard to say with Boston because other then PP, Wally Szczerbiak, Theo Ratliff and Brian Scalabrine their entire roster was born in 1981 or later. Two years down the road they could be really good, but right now they are no more then an inexperienced bunch trying to establish themselves. I can't sugar coat it, they'll need a lot to go right in order to make the post season, but playing in the farce that is the Atlantic Division gives them an outside chance.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 13th in the conference and out in the first round.
11. Toronto Raptors
What Can Go Right - Their six fresh faces blend seamlessly into their nine man rotation and they make a run at the final playoff spot.
What Can Go Wrong - The team tunes out lame duck coach Sam Mitchell early on and they remain a league wide laughingstock.
Outlook - The Raptors were dead last in OPPFG% last year at 49.1%. That's right, the opposition shot almost 50% from the field on them for an entire season! Toronto was also second to last in rebounds ( 38.5 rpg), 28th in blocks (3.31 bpg) and 27th in steals (6.45) & rebound differential (-2.7 rpg). No other way to put that but bad. When you take all those terrible numbers as a whole they equal a complete team wide lack of effort. This falls on the coach in my book. Mitchell must get his squad to play hard for him or he won't last past the All-Star break.
I like the direction GM Bryan Colangelo has this franchise headed in. Chris Bosh is the cornerstone that they are building around, Morris Peterson is an underrated quality starter and T.J . Ford has the potential to be a top flight playmaker. After that however, the rest of the roster is littered with NBA and international journeyman. While I can see Colangelo working here, it's probably too early to expect big things from this group.
I'll be honest though, I like the looks of this club on paper. If the Raps chemistry is right, and they are all on the same page, I think T-Dot could surprise quite a few people this season. They just look to have a nice mix of players who would all seem to have well defined roles. I'm not about to go overboard though, Toronto is realistically still a few years away from truly being in the mix. I'm just saying that the Raptors are a team to keep your eyes on.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
12. New York Knicks
What Can Go Right - They experience a renaissance under new coach Isiah Thomas and are in the hunt for a playoff berth all season.
What Can Go Wrong - Their mismatched roster does not gel and they quit on their fifth consecutive coach.
Outlook - Believe it or not, the Knicks actually do have some talent and are somewhat deep. I know this may be hard for many of you out there to grasp after Larry Brown's sabotage job last year, but it's true. (What would my return to MMM be without ripping LB at least once?)
Granted the backcourt rotation consists of four players that are pretty much carbon copies of each other, but they do have FOUR of them. The loss of Jared Jeffries for 6 to 8 weeks with a broken left wrist is a blow, but NY has two very capable players behind him at SF ready to step in. PF is the strength of the Knicks with Channing Frye poised to break out and the underrated hustler David Lee behind him. Their C situation is one step of above brutal, and an obvious weakness.
If "Isiah's guys" really will play hard for him this year, New York could be an entertaining offensive squad that can run with the best of them. Playing hard on offense won't be enough though. This group has to prove that they can co-exist before anyone will take them seriously. The Knicks didn't defend at all last season (25th in OPPFG% at 46.7%) and I don't see Zeke being in charge changing that any. NY does play in the Titanic Division, so that should give their post season hopes a boost, but I think a return to respectability is a more feasible goal in year one post LB.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
13. Charlotte Bobcats
What Can Go Right - They stay healthy, their young players continue to develop and they shock the league by contending for a playoff spot in only their third year of existence.
What Can Go Wrong - They improve only marginally, their "fans" continue to ignore them and the franchise keeps hemorrhaging money.
Outlook - Charlotte's starting five has the potential to be very well balanced and versatile. I have to stress "potential" because Raymond Felton is in just his second year running the point, Gerald Wallace has to adjust to being a SG, Adam Morrison has to prove that he can do something besides score at SF, Emeka Okafor needs to get his career back on track and C Primoz Brezec is in a contract year. All that said, I could see this group playing extremely well as a unit on both ends of the court.
When you win only 26 games there has to be a reason, and for the Bobcats they ranked 28th in OPPFG% (47.8%) and 29th in rebound differential (-4.2) last year. Of course they were racked with injuries up front, but therein lies another problem with Charlotte. Depth. After Brevin Knight and maybe Sean May their cupboard is extremely bare. Part of that is because they are an expansion team, but another part is that owner Robert Johnson has already earned a reputation as a cheapskate. Case in point. The Cats are currently 1.1 million dollars *under* the minimum salary cap. How is that even possible?
If you've read my stuff before, you know that I've been the driver of the Charlotte bandwagon from day one for how wisely they've built this team from the ground up. Nothing has changed on that front since the plan was always to have major cap room for the deep free agent class of 2007 (they will be between 20 to 25 million dollars under the cap). I know the playoffs are an extreme long shot, and maybe I'm being overly optimistic about their prospects, but hey, they do play in the East.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
14. Philadelphia 76ers
What Can Go Right - Chris Webber and Allen Iverson play in 65+ games each, Samuel Dalembert becomes a consistent contributor, Andre Iguodala explodes onto the scene with a new offensive arsenal and they find a way to sneak into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their defensive remains sieve like and coach Maurice Cheeks looses further grip on the locker room.
Outlook - I've only typed two sentences about the Sixers and I'm already sick of them. I can't lie to my readers, I hate this team. Philly plays by far the most boring brand of offense in the entire NBA. The thing that kills me is that it's been going on for years now. That's why their off season moves were so disappointing. I mean, Alan Henderson and Rodney Carney? You've got be kidding me. How do they plan on selling that crap to the public? Oh yeah, with "It's a Philly thing." Talk about a double entendre. I took that to mean, it's a Philly thing, you know, wasting your time rooting for a team you know has no chance. Maybe you took it differently? But I digress...
I see no reason not to expect more of the same on the court from this bunch. AI pounding the ball for the majority of the shot clock only to take an off balance heave trying to draw a foul as time expires. Or C-Web holding the ball in the high post waiting for something to develop only to hoist a contested line drive jumper.
I know defense has been the camp mantra, but talk is cheap. Playing good D is all about effort, and if these Sixers proved anything last year, it's that they could care less about playing hard. Lost in their mess of a defense is that Philly is also a terrible rebounding squad (29th in rebound differential last season at - 4.2 rpg). Not to sound like a broken record, but why should anyone think that is going to get any better either?
By now I'm sure some of you are wondering why all the venom toward the Sixers? Did you know that according to hoopshype.com Philly still has such luminaries as Jamal Mashburn, Todd MacCulloch, Aaron McKie and Greg Buckner on their payroll? That's not even mentioning the multiple coaches they are still paying. My point is that this is a franchise with no direction, and "Quite Frankly" it pisses me off. Perfect example. A five year contract for Willie Green? Key-ripes!
Last year when I had them missing the playoffs everyone ripped me. Well, this season the best thing that could happen is that the club is sold. The quicker the better too. Move #1 after the sale is firing GM Billy King. Move #2 is trading AI to anyone who will take him for whatever they're willing to offer. After that it's all gravy, everyday the rest of your life, gravy. Needless to say, I'm not expecting as much dissent from my comments this time around.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
15. Atlanta Hawks
What Can Go Right - Free agent PG Speedy Claxton gives them the distributor they need, a few of their young players mature and they reach respectability.
What Can Go Wrong - The settlement of the ownership situation continues to drag on leaving the direction of franchise in limbo.
Outlook - If you've read this far, thank you first of all, but you also know that all bad teams have one thing in common, they play no defense. The Hawks are no different in this respect, as Atlanta ranked 27th in OPPFG% last season ( 47.8%). Being that they have the same coach, and basically the same personnel (except for Claxton, Lorenzen Wright and rookie Sheldon Williams), I don't envision their D suddenly becoming stout over night.
The only sure thing on the Hawks is Joe Johnson, after that you have to talk about their roster in terms of "upside". Like, "Marvin Williams could really bust out with all the extra playing time he'll get." Or, "Josh Smith is going to become a legitimate second option now that Al Harrington is gone." And finally, "Sheldon Williams will prove to be the low post threat Atlanta has always needed."
If anyone was still doubting it, this club has taken over for the Clippers as the officially sanctioned punch line for any and all jokes regarding NBA ineptitude. They have some pieces in place, but until this franchise has a concrete plan to follow, they will continue to be perpetual bottom feeders. The one good thing is that at least all those empty seats at Phillips Arena are easy to please.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th in the conference and back to the lottery.
Final Four - Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland
Eastern Finals - Miami, Cleveland
You'll have to wait until next week to see who I having winning the East...
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- Few observations about New Orleans.....visit the city. Just do it. The city desperately needs the money and there's still plenty to see and do. And the people sincerely appreciate the visitors, even Eagle fans, who usually roll into cities with their obnoxiousness on their sleeves. But New Orleans was happy to have us. It's a city that celebrates obnoxious, inappropriate jerks so we fit in perfectly.....they sell alcohol everywhere in New Orleans. The hot dog guy on the corner sells beer, all the pizza joints sell beer, it's the drinkingest city I've ever seen.....the Superdome is cool and it still feels pretty modern even though it's been around for a long time. And they sell beer there from whistle to whistle, no beer cut off. But I did think that they were pumping in fake crowd noise because it just seemed a little too loud.
(The vast majority of this article was written before the news of Flyers GM Bobby Clarke quitting and coach Ken Hitchcock getting the boot came out so that episode is not addressed until the end. So if you printed out MMM and are reading this on the can you can just skip to the end if your co-workers are starting wonder if you died in the bathroom.)
- Cue the Judas Priest song "Some Heads Are Gonna Roll". It's a blood bath on Broad St.!!! Last Tuesday the Flyers suffered a humiliating and embarrassing 9 - 1 loss to the Sabres and afterward owner Ed Snider went at the roster like he was Tito Ortiz and the Flyers' roster was Ken Shamrock's face. First of all the game was far worse of a blowout then the score indicates, after 3 minutes of watching the game with the score still 0 - 0 I text messaged MMM subscriber John Miller a note saying "this looks like a college team playing an NHL team". Goalie Robert Esche actually had some big saves and played hard until the end (more on that in a minute) and a few Sabres missed some empty nets. The score could have easily been 15-1. The real question was how did the Flyers get the 1 goal?
So Wednesday morning the Flyers brass went into work like the guerilla forces raiding the high school in "Red Dawn". The preacher was called, the line to the governor was set up and the guillotine came down; the Flyers waived Niko Dimitrakos (yeah, so what?), Nolan Baumgartner (who will have to stay with the Flyers after he clears waivers because they don't have enough defensemen), and Petr Nedved (who will be making $2.28 million to play for the minor league Phantoms if he clears waivers which, unless an NHL team is unknowingly employing a roaring crack addict/alcoholic as GM, he will definitely clear waivers).
Oh, before I forget...goalie Robert Esche has been bitching to the press about his lack of playing time. So when he was finally given a chance to play it was against the Sabres who shelled him. But instead of yanking Esche from the game when the score hit like 6 - 1 and showing him some mercy against the onslaught Hitchcock kept him in the game to suffer the slings and arrows and destroy all his statistics which I thought was a CLEAR message to Esche from Hitchcock saying "you wanted to play, now you're going to play this whole %@*# game!!!!" One thing that has always remained constant in the Flyers organization is that you never take your dirty laundry to the press. EVER!!!
Quick random side note. So imagine you're Petr Nedved...you've had a decent career so far, you're making tons of dough, you're married to mega hot super model Veronica Varekova, and you're enjoying all the perks and bells and whistles that accompany being a professional athlete. Now you're demoted to the minors, forced to endure zero star roach motels, no more team issued $85 food per diem PLUS a free buffet, and 12 hour bus rides to exotic ports of call like Hamilton, Ont., Binghamton, NY, and Peoria, Ill. Man that's gotta suck. I guess it still beats working though.
So the logical next question is how did the Flyers respond to being embarrassed and having 3 players told to get lost? Did they circle the wagons and decide to take the bull by the horns and play their asses off? Did they come out with fire in their eyes in their games against the Lightning and Panthers? Was there an inspirational speech like the one Jake Taylor gave the Indians when he found out Rachel Phelps wanted to move the team to Miami in "Major League"? In a couple of words....HELL NO!!
The Flyers came out against the Lightning with a smidge more energy then usual but quickly fell to pieces. They lost the game 4 - 1 with their usual stupid style of lazy play. And if I see defenseman Denis Gauthier take another idiotic penalty trying to make a big hit I'm going to gouge my eyes out with a butter knife. Denny, if your fist clenches crack it open before you use it to lose your cool and put your team in a bind. The Flyers have proven that their penalty killing sucks so don't help out the other team. Please, I'M BEGGING YOU!!!
Oh and Peter Forsberg, one of the few Flyers that looks like he gives a crap when he plays, sprained his wrist in the Tampa game and may be out for a while.
On Friday the Flyers played the Panthers and put up a minimal fight against a team they should have beaten. They lost 3 - 2 which put them with a record of 1 - 6 - 1 which is the worst record in the entire league.
So Sunday morning I was just sitting here cruising the internet looking at ahhhhh....church schedules....when I get a text message from John Miller that Bobby Clarke and Ken Hitchcock were history. I was half happy. I didn't think that Hitchcock was doing a bad job, he was just stuck with players that are ill equipped for the new NHL. What was Hitchcock supposed to do with guys like Derian Hatcher and Mike Rathje, players that skate like they're playing in mud but have to play because they're making so much money? So Hitchcock was a run over by the proverbial bus quicker then a 3 legged squirrel. That being said it was crystal clear that Bobby Clarke needed to go. When I first heard that he resigned I thought it was one of those quit or be fired deals but after seeing the press conference I thought it was obvious that he had had enough. And the fact that he did nothing at all to help this team in the off season, even on draft day, made it all the more clear that he had lost his edge. The Flyers replaced Hitchcock with assistant coach John Stevens. I think that's a decent move, he's a young intense guy that may be able to get through to these guys better. But replacing Clarke with assistant GM Paul Holmgren is just a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" move. But at the press conference the Flyers brass used the word "interim" about 12 times so that the NHL and Flyers fans know that there will probably be a new boss at the end of the season at the latest. I'm throwing my support behind ex-Penguins GM Craig Patrick. He kept the Penguins competitive when they were putting guys on the ice that not only didn't belong in the NHL, they probably didn't even belong in the country. I think most of the guys on the team were just Czech Republic refugees looking to get out of military service. So we'll see how this plays out, it should be an interesting next few weeks.
October 23, 2006
For the first time in months we have the full staff of MMM reporting this week. Derreck Sura is back with the NBA & Ed Wasser returns from Nawlins with his column. Eagles/NFL
In typical Philadelphia heartbreaking fashion the Eagles lose on the 2nd longest FG in NFL history (by distance, yes I know two guys kicked 63 yarders but does Jason Elam's really count? That's like me saying I hit my driver 280 yards in Denver so that means that's what I normally hit it). Anyway, let's get back to the Eagles...
Game Negatives:
- The missed 3 points (or 7) at the end of the first half. Even the dumbest of football fans knew not to throw that ball anywhere but in the endzone or out of bounds. So why does our QB not know this? He did the same exact thing last year against San Diego and Washington. I have no answer to this.
- Eagles & Donovan McNabb in the first 40 minutes of the game. Yes this is really a repeat of the above but I think we need to separate the two. Can we just sign Ronde Barber and put him on offense? McNabb to Barber is a sure 7 points.
- [Broken record] RUN THE BALL!! The Eagles ran the ball 21 times in this game (I don't count McNabb's 8 'rushes'. They're really just pass plays which McNabb improvises). So 21 rushes for 132 yards. Since I am a math expert I can tell you that's over 6 yards a carry. Obvious answer is "But they were behind 17-0, they can't keep running the ball". To that I say in the first half when the game was mostly scoreless or only 7-0, the Eagles attempted to throw the ball 24 times vs. 14 runs. ENOUGH PASSING!! The Bucs are clearly not the defensive team they were in years past. A good team rushes the ball 35-40 times yesterday and goes home victorious. Last week I said the Eagles have turned into Mike Martz's offense and this only verified my beliefs. They're one step away from the run and shoot.
- Special Teams. Giving up the 37 yard kick return to Michael Pittman immediately after the Eagles took their only lead of the game was a back breaker. This return units look lost on both sides of the ball right now.
Game Positives:
- Eagles & McNabb's final 20 minutes. I don't know what the heck is with the puking so I'm not even going to venture a guess. I do know he looked very good late in the game.
- Brian Westbrook. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I don't care if he practices or not. When he's been in the game this year he's been explosive. Keep him out of practice all week for all I care.
- No Michael Lewis. The Eagles have come to their senses with this guy. I only wish Jim Johnson had read my analysis on M Lew years ago.
So after 7 games in which the Eagles have been favorites, they stand at 4-3. The Eagles will be favored again in the next 3 games but I'd just like to see some solid football at this point. These helter skelter games are killing me.
Reggie Brown is turning into an excellent WR and it's great to watch his growth. Besides him, everyone's a dropfest. I have a ex-co-worker who went to U. of Michigan, lives in Michigan, is a Michigan season ticket holder, well, you get the point. When the Eagles drafted Jason Avant I asked him what's up with this guy? "Not much speed but great hands". Is it a disease to put on an Eagles uniform as a WR? Only the strongest survive??
Donte Stallworth??
Around the League
Best Game: Pitt/Atlanta. Slam Dunk. If you were looking for defense you came to the wrong place. The Steelers are close to being buried in the AFC. It's still early to call them dead, but if they get loss # 5 before Halloween (luckily they have Oakland next week), I think they'd need a miracle to get back into the playoffs.
Smoke/Mirrors Award: The Jets stand at 4-3 after beating the Lions, Bills, Dolphis and Titans. Not exactly stellar competition but Chad Pennington is looking very solid once again.
My AFC pick: The Jaguars lose to the Texans in an awful display of football. The Jags are getting decimated with injuries but they still should have beaten the Texans. Unfortunately for the Eagles the Jaguars are facing a huge game next week and both teams must have a victory, and the loser gets their 4th loss of the season and we're not even into November.
Worst display of football: Arizona. I'd be shocked if Dennis Green isn't gone after the season and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Green is gone very soon and replaced with Jim Fassel. Not that it would help any.
Best win: Bengals over Panthers. The Bengals needed to beat a good team to feel good about themselves again. If this offensive line plays the way it did yesterday (only 2 sacks allowed and 4 yards per carry), this is a Super Bowl team.
I thought this was a weak week for games this week, but next week is an excellent week. Jax @ Philly, Atl @ Cincy, Indy @ Denver, Dallas @ Carolina are all matchups of potential playoff teams.
Baseball - The WORLD Series
The WORLD Series began this weekend with that much ballyhooed rematch of the 1968 WORLD Series between the Tigers and Cards. I expect this to be one of the lower rated World Series in recent history unless of course there is a Game 7, which I suspect there may be. At this point, it's a 5 game series, with the Cards having "home field" and Chris Carpenter slated to pitch potentially 2 games.
At this point I really don't care who wins (blatant lie - if you read my MLB preview you know who I want to win so that I can pat myself on the back next week). I just want a good, long series, and hopefully a "staple" game which means a great ninth inning comeback or an extra innings walk off, etc.
NBA - Derreck Sura
I'm back and ready to start a new season with my Eastern Conference Preview. Last year I thought the East was making strides toward evening out the balance of power between the Conferences. I was wrong, and I don't expect it to be any different this season. The quality teams on the Right Coast are not as good as the upper echelon teams out West. Further more, the mediocre and bad clubs in the East are also a notch below their Left Coast brethren. Don't get me wrong here. The competition inside of the Eastern Conference itself will still be good because the teams are pretty tightly bunched talent wise, even though they are not on par with the West as a whole.
I have many changes in store for you as I begin my fourth full NBA campaign as a MMM writer (I burst onto the scene at the end of the '02-03 season). The first of which is dedicated to long time subscriber Douglas Morgan. Gone are his hated "Eyes On" and "Now or Never" categories that have graced all my previous pre-season pieces. Let's get down to business.
1. Miami Heat
What Can Go Right - They avoid injuries, complacency and overconfidence while everyone stays on the same page and they win another Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - They coast through large portions of the regular season costing themselves home court advantage. And/or a few of their older players succumb to injuries sapping the team's depth.
Outlook - Knowing what we do about Shaquille O'Neal's fondness for playing hard over the course of 82 games, I think it's safe to say the Heat won't run away and hide from the rest of the conference. Factor in starting PG Jason Williams being out until at least December as he recovers from right patella tendon surgery (38 year old Gary Payton is their only proven backup), and it's not hard to see Miami getting off to a slow start that lingers.
Then there's also Dwyane Wade's mysterious right hand injury from the NBA Finals to consider. Officially the MRI taken on 10/4 was "negative", but even Wade admits that he still has pain and swelling on the top of his shooting hand when lifting weights or playing basketball.
Even with all that, and the lack of any substantial roster additions, the Heat are easily one of the three best teams in the East, and should coast into the second round of the playoffs. After that it can get a little dicey for them. Miami's title defense could come to a screeching halt in the second round depending on match ups.
I'm sure the company line all year will be "We don't need home court advantage to win a ring." Umm, OK, if youz say so. The facts are that this team isn't getting any younger (only Wade and Udonis Haslem were born in the 80's amongst their regulars) and lacks athleticism. When you look at the two teams I have right behind them, they have both depth and athleticism in abundance. That's why I think the Heat will need home court and health if they are going to repeat.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
What Can Go Right - Their shooters start making 3-pointers (25th in the league last season at 33.9%) and LeBron James continues his ascent to immortality by guiding his squad to a deep playoff run.
What Can Go Wrong - An injury to Bron. The Cavs are a deep team overall, but there's no replacing James' contributions if he goes down.
Outlook - I'm sure many of you think this is too high for such an inexperienced team, but remember that Cleveland had the third most wins (50) in the East last year. It's also important that in their second year in coach Mike Brown's system only David Wesley, Scot Pollard and possibly rookie Shannon Brown will be new to the rotation. Continuity is key for such a young franchise (players, coach and owner) on the rise. They are two deep at every position, have a nice mix of youth and experience and can play big or small and fast or slow. That kind of versatility is extremely valuable in today's NBA.
Two things worry me about the Cavs though. The first is the afore mentioned Coach Brown. I'm not a big fan of what I've seen out of him so far. Granted he was a rookie himself last year, but his offensive playbook consisted of give the ball to LeBron and hope he creates the shot for himself or someone else way too much in crunch time. There's also the issue of wearing James out (he played 42.5 mpg last season, good for 2nd overall). It's very tempting to ride Bron like that because he is so young, but that's not the smartest course of action for the franchise long term.
The next is their team defense. Cleveland was 18th in opponent's field goal percentage (OPPFG%) at 45.5% last season. Not bad, but also not good enough to win a championship. Much of this starts with James himself. I have no doubt he can be a great defender if he puts his mind to it, but he has to have that desire. Meanwhile, if he can just show a little more emotion and intensity on that end, his team would follow.
If the Cavs can get a little more creativity out of Mike Brown and ratchet up the D a notch or two, they have a very good chance of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to the Finals in the playoffs.
3. Chicago Bulls
What Can Go Right - They remain one of the top defensive teams in the NBA while coach Scott Skiles seamlessly blends their six new players into his system and decides on a permanent rotation for once.
What Can Go Wrong - They continue to misfire on offense (22nd overall last year with 44.6% shooting from the field) and can't come up with a legitimate go to guy in close games.
Outlook - The Bulls were the talk of the summer. They signed Ben Wallace & Adrian Griffin, drafted Tyrus Thomas & Thabo Sefolosha and traded for P.J. Brown & Viktor Khryapa (a personal fav). What do all these players have in common? They play defense and give 100% effort all the time. In other words, Skiles' type of guys. Big Ben and P.J. are aging, but should have enough in the tank to do what they are asked in Chicago. As an added bonus they can both tutor their replacements (Tyrus and Viktor) at practice. Griffin and Sefolosha give the Bulls' backcourt the size, length and athleticism it has been missing for a long while now. Chicago has led the league in OPPFG% for the past two seasons, and it says here that their D will be even better this year.
The Bulls are deep at the 1 through 3 positions, but a little thin up front with quality and/or experienced big men. Another concern of mine is that they are mainly a jump shooting team. You know what they say, "Live by the J, die by the J." Sure Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and maybe Luol Deng can get to the basket and create, but they'd all prefer to hoist mid-range J's (as would Andres Nocioni). Being that those four are their best offensive players, that doesn't bode well on nights when they can't throw it in the ocean. I also wonder just who is going to score in the low post for this club?
Make no mistake though, Chicago will play hard every single night and be the team that no one wants to face in the playoffs because of their team defense. That D gives them a punchers chance against anyone in the post season, but until their offense becomes a little more balanced it's hard to see them being serious contenders for the crown.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to the Eastern Conference Finals in the playoffs.
4. New Jersey Nets
What Can Go Right - Their "Big 4" is the picture of health throughout the season and they develop some type of bench making them one of the most dangerous teams in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - One of the "Big 4" gets hurt and is out for an extended period of time.
Outlook - The Nets have a very solid starting five, an underrated coach and play great defense (7th overall at 43.9% in OPPFG% last season). Their problem quite simply is depth. Relying on your sixth man is not a bad thing, but when it's soon to be 40 (on 12/16) year old Clifford Robinson, that's a problem. After Uncle Spliffy it's rookies Marcus Williams and Hassan Adams followed by journeymen like Mikki Moore and Eddie House. Ick.
I suppose Williams will be fine in his role spelling Jason Kidd, but Adams is no more then an energy guy, and everyone knows what to expect from the other three by now. The one saving grace on the pine for NJ might be second year swingman Antoine Wright. He was awful as a rookie, but has shown a little more confidence thus far in the pre-season. If he can produce some instant offense in spurts for them off the bench that would be huge.
The Nets are what they are. Which is a very good regular season team (when healthy) in an awful division. I know President Rob Thorn retooled the entire bench (sans Cliff) this off season, but all the guys he brought in are either mediocre or unproven. Maybe one or two of them pan out and have career year's, but that's a long shot at best. I suppose it's possible that NJ catches lightning in a bottle and goes deep into the playoffs, just highly unlikely.
Predicted Finish - They are locked into the 4th seed as the third division winner, but could finish with the sixth best record overall in the East. As for the playoffs, they most likely will be out in the first round, but could sneak into the second round with a favorable match up.
5. Detroit Pistons
What Can Go Right - Their five main players avoid the injury bug, they don't miss a beat without Ben Wallace and they remain a dominant team in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - Injuries finally catch up with them and/or coach Flip Saunders loses control of the locker room.
Outlook - There's no doubt that the Pistons are still a quality club, but c'mon, let's be realistic here. The meltdown that started last year in the 4th quarter of game two in the second round of the playoffs has to have had some type of detrimental effect on the club's once impenetrable psyche. If you take that air of invincibility away from Detroit, what do they have left? Yes they still have good chemistry as a whole, but the long time face of the franchise is elsewhere and their defense already wasn't what it used to be last season.
Another thing for Pistons' fans to worry about is the second unit. After Antonio McDyess it's a bunch of has been's and never were's. I mean Lindsey Hunter, Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino and the ancient Dale Davis? Ouch! If any of those guys are asked to produce on a regular basis as fill in starters, that is big trouble for Motown.
As you can probably tell by now, I'm not very optimistic about Detroit's prospects this year. I always thought this group was entirely overrated by the media, even when they won it all, but there's no denying that they are on the down swing now. Something also tells me that they are a five game losing streak away from tuning Saunders out completely. The good thing for the Pistons is that they play in the East, which pretty much guarantees them a playoff spot.
Predicted Finish - Won't be anywhere higher then the 5th seed, but could have the fourth best record in the conference. If they are clicking on all cylinders, and get some favorable match ups, the Eastern Conference Finals is their ceiling in the playoffs.
6. Indiana Pacers
What Can Go Right - Jamaal Tinsley and Jermaine O'Neal stay healthy for once while coach Rick Carlisle loosens up the reigns on his offense and takes advantage of all his athletes making them one of the most exciting teams to watch in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - They have an off court distraction early in the season for the third consecutive year. Oh, wait...
Outlook - The starting front court of Danny Granger (SF), Al Harrington (PF) and O'Neal (C) is as versatile and athletic as they come and will be a match up nightmare for the opposition on most nights. Newcomers Marquis Daniels and Maceo Baston give Carlisle some multi-positional guys off the bench as well. After Daniels the swing man depth is a little inexperienced, but the addition of veteran Darrell Armstrong is a nice insurance policy at the point for the oft injured Tinsley and the inconsistent Sarunas Jasikevicius.
Other then injuries and the off court stuff that is perennially hanging around the Trail Pacers (did I really just type that?), my main concern for Indy is Carlisle. That's hard for me to type too because I think Rick is one of the best coaches in the business. He's saying all the right things now about playing fast and coaching to his squad's strengths, but will he really do it? I'm not so sure. It's a tough sell for me that a defensive oriented control freak coach is suddenly going to become Paul Westhead (former Loyola Marymount coach). Carlisle signed a multiyear contract extension on 10/5 where he also was bestowed the title of executive vice president of basketball operations. So it seems management doesn't share my concerns.
Stephen Jackson being an absolute moron aside, the Pacers should be an entirely different club this year. They are another deep team that can play big or small, fast or slow. That should help offset some of the growing pains they are bound to have with so many new faces. However, as is always the case with them, you just never know what's going to happen next. The unpredictable nature of injuries and off court behavior, coupled with a new style of play, relegates Indiana to an entertaining team that is a few years away from being serious contenders.
Predicted Finish - Could go as low as 7th in the regular season, but if things go right they could end up with the fourth best record in the East. Most likely one and done in the playoffs, but the second round is not out of the question.
7. Orlando Magic
What Can Go Right - Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic become the modern day twin towers, Jameer Nelson proves he's a top flight floor general and Grant Hill has a true contract year performance.
What Can Go Wrong - They have some struggles early on and the weight of expectations starts to wear on the youngsters.
Outlook - The Magic are well stocked at the two most difficult spots to fill in the NBA, point guard and center. The D & D boys (you heard it here first) should be manning the middle in Central Florida for the next decade plus. There aren't enough minutes to go around at the point for Nelson, Carlos Arroyo and Travis Diener. I'm not even mentioning the depth at small forward either, where Hill is joined by Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza.
The good news ends there, as the talent drop off on the rest of the roster is steep. The big men after Howard and Milicic are all well past their collective prime's. An even bigger weakness for Orlando is at shooting guard. Keith Bogans, Keyon Dooling and rookie J.J. Redick don't really add up to contender status. The Magic are an average defensive team as well (15th in OPPFG% at 45.4% last year). The D they can work on. But the outside shooting? Not so much.
Orlando had evolved into "my team" by the end of last season, and I don't see that changing this year. The Magic are the prototypical team I love to watch. Young, on the rise and not too full of themselves to where they don't play hard every night. My boys finished last year on a 12-3 tear, and while I don't expect them to win at an 80% clip for the upcoming season, a .500 record is a realistic goal.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 6th to 8th in the conference and their first playoff berth since 2002-2003.
8. Washington Wizards
What Can Go Right - Their "Big 3" continues to light up the scoreboard and they get some type of consistent production from their bench.
What Can Go Wrong - They have a significant injury to one of the "Big 3" and/or their defense does not improve.
Outlook - Team President Ernie Grunfeld made two shrewd moves this summer. The first was signing Darius Songaila. He's not great or anything, but Songaila gives the Wiz a nice back up PF who can provide some much needed offense off the pine. The next was signing DeShawn Stevenson to a two year deal at the league minimum. (Why Stevenson opted out of the 3 million dollar last year of his previous contract, and then proceeded to turn down a 3 year 10 million dollar offer, we'll never know.) DeShawn will slide right into the defensive stopper role vacated by Jared Jeffries. The last key "addition" to the rotation is the return from injury of Jarvis Hayes. If he can stay healthy (which would be a first) and be an instant offense type guy as a sixth man, Washington will be able to put points on the board with anyone.
The Wiz are an entertaining team to watch most nights, but they have a tendency to only play hard on one end of the floor. Their defense ranked 23rd in OPPFG% (46.5%) last season, and that must get better if they want to play with the big boys come May.
Washington is really only a marginal playoff team in my mind, and the reason I picked them 8th is because their scoring ability separates them from the rest of the field. They don't defend or rebound particularly well, and aren't exactly deep. For those reasons it would not surprise me to see them miss the playoffs entirely.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 7th to 10th in the conference and a first round exit in the playoffs.
9. Milwaukee Bucks
What Can Go Right - Their new rotation develops a great chemistry and they are a solid playoff team in the East.
What Can Go Wrong - They get off to a slow start dues to their injuries and never recover.
Outlook - I like this Bucks club on paper quite a bit, but losing starting C Andrew Bogut for 6 to 8 weeks to a lower left leg strain is a big blow. Then to lose starting SF
Bobby Simmons four days later for *at least* a month to a bruised right heel is adding salt to the wound. Milwaukee does have adequate role players backing them up in Dan Gadzuric and Ruben Patterson respectively, but that substantially cripples their overall depth.
Other then Simmons and Michael Redd, every player in the Bucks' ten man rotation has a new role this season. That's why it's more then the two starters being out that hurts. When they get back, then they have to be worked back into the lineup, and the whole training camp process begins anew.
I liked Milwaukee's depth before these injuries, but what I didn't like was their defense (24th in OPPFG% at 46.6% last year) and coach Terry Stotts. Those two problems really go hand in hand too. Stotts is the typical "nice guy" coach who doesn't really get on his guys. That's all well and good in some situations, but GM Larry Harris has put together a quality roster, and results on the court are to be expected now.
There's no doubt that the Bucks have what it takes to be an Eastern Conference playoff team, but a lot of that depends on how everyone adjusts to their new roles and what kind of team chemistry develops. If things break right Milwaukee will be a well rounded team that can play with anybody. If they get off to a slow start though, look out Terry Stotts. The injuries may buy Stotts some time, but his days are numbered, and it wouldn't shock me if he didn't last the season.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 7th to 11th in the conference and out in the first round.
10. Boston Celtics
What Can Go Right - Among their plethora of young talent, two or three have break out season's and they squeak into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - The youngsters don't develop and Paul Pierce regrets signing that three year contract extension.
Outlook - After a miserable sophomore slump, now is the time for Al Jefferson to deliver on some of that promise he showed during his rookie campaign and become a big time player. I guess you could say the same about Tony Allen, Kendrick Perkins, Sebastian Telfair or Delonte West, but Al Jef is the only one with superstar potential in my mind. I know his injuries are what everyone blames last season's struggles on, but I saw a bit of an indifferent attitude from him when he did play, and that worries me. Hey Al, you need to understand that you have done NOTHING in the league yet, so get to work.
The Celts didn't play defense or rebound all that well last year, but a lot of that is because they are so young. Given time they do have the personnel to play D and board at high level. Where they did excel last season was shooting the ball. The boys from Beantown ranked no lower then 13th in free throw, 3-point and field goal percentage. Their highest rank being 5th overall from the field at 46.7%. What that tells me is if they clamp down on defense, they might actually be a formidable club in the East
It's hard to say with Boston because other then PP, Wally Szczerbiak, Theo Ratliff and Brian Scalabrine their entire roster was born in 1981 or later. Two years down the road they could be really good, but right now they are no more then an inexperienced bunch trying to establish themselves. I can't sugar coat it, they'll need a lot to go right in order to make the post season, but playing in the farce that is the Atlantic Division gives them an outside chance.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 13th in the conference and out in the first round.
11. Toronto Raptors
What Can Go Right - Their six fresh faces blend seamlessly into their nine man rotation and they make a run at the final playoff spot.
What Can Go Wrong - The team tunes out lame duck coach Sam Mitchell early on and they remain a league wide laughingstock.
Outlook - The Raptors were dead last in OPPFG% last year at 49.1%. That's right, the opposition shot almost 50% from the field on them for an entire season! Toronto was also second to last in rebounds ( 38.5 rpg), 28th in blocks (3.31 bpg) and 27th in steals (6.45) & rebound differential (-2.7 rpg). No other way to put that but bad. When you take all those terrible numbers as a whole they equal a complete team wide lack of effort. This falls on the coach in my book. Mitchell must get his squad to play hard for him or he won't last past the All-Star break.
I like the direction GM Bryan Colangelo has this franchise headed in. Chris Bosh is the cornerstone that they are building around, Morris Peterson is an underrated quality starter and T.J . Ford has the potential to be a top flight playmaker. After that however, the rest of the roster is littered with NBA and international journeyman. While I can see Colangelo working here, it's probably too early to expect big things from this group.
I'll be honest though, I like the looks of this club on paper. If the Raps chemistry is right, and they are all on the same page, I think T-Dot could surprise quite a few people this season. They just look to have a nice mix of players who would all seem to have well defined roles. I'm not about to go overboard though, Toronto is realistically still a few years away from truly being in the mix. I'm just saying that the Raptors are a team to keep your eyes on.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
12. New York Knicks
What Can Go Right - They experience a renaissance under new coach Isiah Thomas and are in the hunt for a playoff berth all season.
What Can Go Wrong - Their mismatched roster does not gel and they quit on their fifth consecutive coach.
Outlook - Believe it or not, the Knicks actually do have some talent and are somewhat deep. I know this may be hard for many of you out there to grasp after Larry Brown's sabotage job last year, but it's true. (What would my return to MMM be without ripping LB at least once?)
Granted the backcourt rotation consists of four players that are pretty much carbon copies of each other, but they do have FOUR of them. The loss of Jared Jeffries for 6 to 8 weeks with a broken left wrist is a blow, but NY has two very capable players behind him at SF ready to step in. PF is the strength of the Knicks with Channing Frye poised to break out and the underrated hustler David Lee behind him. Their C situation is one step of above brutal, and an obvious weakness.
If "Isiah's guys" really will play hard for him this year, New York could be an entertaining offensive squad that can run with the best of them. Playing hard on offense won't be enough though. This group has to prove that they can co-exist before anyone will take them seriously. The Knicks didn't defend at all last season (25th in OPPFG% at 46.7%) and I don't see Zeke being in charge changing that any. NY does play in the Titanic Division, so that should give their post season hopes a boost, but I think a return to respectability is a more feasible goal in year one post LB.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
13. Charlotte Bobcats
What Can Go Right - They stay healthy, their young players continue to develop and they shock the league by contending for a playoff spot in only their third year of existence.
What Can Go Wrong - They improve only marginally, their "fans" continue to ignore them and the franchise keeps hemorrhaging money.
Outlook - Charlotte's starting five has the potential to be very well balanced and versatile. I have to stress "potential" because Raymond Felton is in just his second year running the point, Gerald Wallace has to adjust to being a SG, Adam Morrison has to prove that he can do something besides score at SF, Emeka Okafor needs to get his career back on track and C Primoz Brezec is in a contract year. All that said, I could see this group playing extremely well as a unit on both ends of the court.
When you win only 26 games there has to be a reason, and for the Bobcats they ranked 28th in OPPFG% (47.8%) and 29th in rebound differential (-4.2) last year. Of course they were racked with injuries up front, but therein lies another problem with Charlotte. Depth. After Brevin Knight and maybe Sean May their cupboard is extremely bare. Part of that is because they are an expansion team, but another part is that owner Robert Johnson has already earned a reputation as a cheapskate. Case in point. The Cats are currently 1.1 million dollars *under* the minimum salary cap. How is that even possible?
If you've read my stuff before, you know that I've been the driver of the Charlotte bandwagon from day one for how wisely they've built this team from the ground up. Nothing has changed on that front since the plan was always to have major cap room for the deep free agent class of 2007 (they will be between 20 to 25 million dollars under the cap). I know the playoffs are an extreme long shot, and maybe I'm being overly optimistic about their prospects, but hey, they do play in the East.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
14. Philadelphia 76ers
What Can Go Right - Chris Webber and Allen Iverson play in 65+ games each, Samuel Dalembert becomes a consistent contributor, Andre Iguodala explodes onto the scene with a new offensive arsenal and they find a way to sneak into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their defensive remains sieve like and coach Maurice Cheeks looses further grip on the locker room.
Outlook - I've only typed two sentences about the Sixers and I'm already sick of them. I can't lie to my readers, I hate this team. Philly plays by far the most boring brand of offense in the entire NBA. The thing that kills me is that it's been going on for years now. That's why their off season moves were so disappointing. I mean, Alan Henderson and Rodney Carney? You've got be kidding me. How do they plan on selling that crap to the public? Oh yeah, with "It's a Philly thing." Talk about a double entendre. I took that to mean, it's a Philly thing, you know, wasting your time rooting for a team you know has no chance. Maybe you took it differently? But I digress...
I see no reason not to expect more of the same on the court from this bunch. AI pounding the ball for the majority of the shot clock only to take an off balance heave trying to draw a foul as time expires. Or C-Web holding the ball in the high post waiting for something to develop only to hoist a contested line drive jumper.
I know defense has been the camp mantra, but talk is cheap. Playing good D is all about effort, and if these Sixers proved anything last year, it's that they could care less about playing hard. Lost in their mess of a defense is that Philly is also a terrible rebounding squad (29th in rebound differential last season at - 4.2 rpg). Not to sound like a broken record, but why should anyone think that is going to get any better either?
By now I'm sure some of you are wondering why all the venom toward the Sixers? Did you know that according to hoopshype.com Philly still has such luminaries as Jamal Mashburn, Todd MacCulloch, Aaron McKie and Greg Buckner on their payroll? That's not even mentioning the multiple coaches they are still paying. My point is that this is a franchise with no direction, and "Quite Frankly" it pisses me off. Perfect example. A five year contract for Willie Green? Key-ripes!
Last year when I had them missing the playoffs everyone ripped me. Well, this season the best thing that could happen is that the club is sold. The quicker the better too. Move #1 after the sale is firing GM Billy King. Move #2 is trading AI to anyone who will take him for whatever they're willing to offer. After that it's all gravy, everyday the rest of your life, gravy. Needless to say, I'm not expecting as much dissent from my comments this time around.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 8th to 15th in the conference and out in the first round.
15. Atlanta Hawks
What Can Go Right - Free agent PG Speedy Claxton gives them the distributor they need, a few of their young players mature and they reach respectability.
What Can Go Wrong - The settlement of the ownership situation continues to drag on leaving the direction of franchise in limbo.
Outlook - If you've read this far, thank you first of all, but you also know that all bad teams have one thing in common, they play no defense. The Hawks are no different in this respect, as Atlanta ranked 27th in OPPFG% last season ( 47.8%). Being that they have the same coach, and basically the same personnel (except for Claxton, Lorenzen Wright and rookie Sheldon Williams), I don't envision their D suddenly becoming stout over night.
The only sure thing on the Hawks is Joe Johnson, after that you have to talk about their roster in terms of "upside". Like, "Marvin Williams could really bust out with all the extra playing time he'll get." Or, "Josh Smith is going to become a legitimate second option now that Al Harrington is gone." And finally, "Sheldon Williams will prove to be the low post threat Atlanta has always needed."
If anyone was still doubting it, this club has taken over for the Clippers as the officially sanctioned punch line for any and all jokes regarding NBA ineptitude. They have some pieces in place, but until this franchise has a concrete plan to follow, they will continue to be perpetual bottom feeders. The one good thing is that at least all those empty seats at Phillips Arena are easy to please.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th in the conference and back to the lottery.
Final Four - Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland
Eastern Finals - Miami, Cleveland
You'll have to wait until next week to see who I having winning the East...
NHL Week in Review By : Ed Wasser
- Few observations about New Orleans.....visit the city. Just do it. The city desperately needs the money and there's still plenty to see and do. And the people sincerely appreciate the visitors, even Eagle fans, who usually roll into cities with their obnoxiousness on their sleeves. But New Orleans was happy to have us. It's a city that celebrates obnoxious, inappropriate jerks so we fit in perfectly.....they sell alcohol everywhere in New Orleans. The hot dog guy on the corner sells beer, all the pizza joints sell beer, it's the drinkingest city I've ever seen.....the Superdome is cool and it still feels pretty modern even though it's been around for a long time. And they sell beer there from whistle to whistle, no beer cut off. But I did think that they were pumping in fake crowd noise because it just seemed a little too loud.
(The vast majority of this article was written before the news of Flyers GM Bobby Clarke quitting and coach Ken Hitchcock getting the boot came out so that episode is not addressed until the end. So if you printed out MMM and are reading this on the can you can just skip to the end if your co-workers are starting wonder if you died in the bathroom.)
- Cue the Judas Priest song "Some Heads Are Gonna Roll". It's a blood bath on Broad St.!!! Last Tuesday the Flyers suffered a humiliating and embarrassing 9 - 1 loss to the Sabres and afterward owner Ed Snider went at the roster like he was Tito Ortiz and the Flyers' roster was Ken Shamrock's face. First of all the game was far worse of a blowout then the score indicates, after 3 minutes of watching the game with the score still 0 - 0 I text messaged MMM subscriber John Miller a note saying "this looks like a college team playing an NHL team". Goalie Robert Esche actually had some big saves and played hard until the end (more on that in a minute) and a few Sabres missed some empty nets. The score could have easily been 15-1. The real question was how did the Flyers get the 1 goal?
So Wednesday morning the Flyers brass went into work like the guerilla forces raiding the high school in "Red Dawn". The preacher was called, the line to the governor was set up and the guillotine came down; the Flyers waived Niko Dimitrakos (yeah, so what?), Nolan Baumgartner (who will have to stay with the Flyers after he clears waivers because they don't have enough defensemen), and Petr Nedved (who will be making $2.28 million to play for the minor league Phantoms if he clears waivers which, unless an NHL team is unknowingly employing a roaring crack addict/alcoholic as GM, he will definitely clear waivers).
Oh, before I forget...goalie Robert Esche has been bitching to the press about his lack of playing time. So when he was finally given a chance to play it was against the Sabres who shelled him. But instead of yanking Esche from the game when the score hit like 6 - 1 and showing him some mercy against the onslaught Hitchcock kept him in the game to suffer the slings and arrows and destroy all his statistics which I thought was a CLEAR message to Esche from Hitchcock saying "you wanted to play, now you're going to play this whole %@*# game!!!!" One thing that has always remained constant in the Flyers organization is that you never take your dirty laundry to the press. EVER!!!
Quick random side note. So imagine you're Petr Nedved...you've had a decent career so far, you're making tons of dough, you're married to mega hot super model Veronica Varekova, and you're enjoying all the perks and bells and whistles that accompany being a professional athlete. Now you're demoted to the minors, forced to endure zero star roach motels, no more team issued $85 food per diem PLUS a free buffet, and 12 hour bus rides to exotic ports of call like Hamilton, Ont., Binghamton, NY, and Peoria, Ill. Man that's gotta suck. I guess it still beats working though.
So the logical next question is how did the Flyers respond to being embarrassed and having 3 players told to get lost? Did they circle the wagons and decide to take the bull by the horns and play their asses off? Did they come out with fire in their eyes in their games against the Lightning and Panthers? Was there an inspirational speech like the one Jake Taylor gave the Indians when he found out Rachel Phelps wanted to move the team to Miami in "Major League"? In a couple of words....HELL NO!!
The Flyers came out against the Lightning with a smidge more energy then usual but quickly fell to pieces. They lost the game 4 - 1 with their usual stupid style of lazy play. And if I see defenseman Denis Gauthier take another idiotic penalty trying to make a big hit I'm going to gouge my eyes out with a butter knife. Denny, if your fist clenches crack it open before you use it to lose your cool and put your team in a bind. The Flyers have proven that their penalty killing sucks so don't help out the other team. Please, I'M BEGGING YOU!!!
Oh and Peter Forsberg, one of the few Flyers that looks like he gives a crap when he plays, sprained his wrist in the Tampa game and may be out for a while.
On Friday the Flyers played the Panthers and put up a minimal fight against a team they should have beaten. They lost 3 - 2 which put them with a record of 1 - 6 - 1 which is the worst record in the entire league.
So Sunday morning I was just sitting here cruising the internet looking at ahhhhh....church schedules....when I get a text message from John Miller that Bobby Clarke and Ken Hitchcock were history. I was half happy. I didn't think that Hitchcock was doing a bad job, he was just stuck with players that are ill equipped for the new NHL. What was Hitchcock supposed to do with guys like Derian Hatcher and Mike Rathje, players that skate like they're playing in mud but have to play because they're making so much money? So Hitchcock was a run over by the proverbial bus quicker then a 3 legged squirrel. That being said it was crystal clear that Bobby Clarke needed to go. When I first heard that he resigned I thought it was one of those quit or be fired deals but after seeing the press conference I thought it was obvious that he had had enough. And the fact that he did nothing at all to help this team in the off season, even on draft day, made it all the more clear that he had lost his edge. The Flyers replaced Hitchcock with assistant coach John Stevens. I think that's a decent move, he's a young intense guy that may be able to get through to these guys better. But replacing Clarke with assistant GM Paul Holmgren is just a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" move. But at the press conference the Flyers brass used the word "interim" about 12 times so that the NHL and Flyers fans know that there will probably be a new boss at the end of the season at the latest. I'm throwing my support behind ex-Penguins GM Craig Patrick. He kept the Penguins competitive when they were putting guys on the ice that not only didn't belong in the NHL, they probably didn't even belong in the country. I think most of the guys on the team were just Czech Republic refugees looking to get out of military service. So we'll see how this plays out, it should be an interesting next few weeks.
posted by Monday Morning Mehta at 10:51 AM
8 Comments:
Eagles have a filed a protest with the NFL about the kick & my insiders say that the Bucs may forfeit the game with Gruden being suspended & fined.
DW
The East preview was probably the best work you have done to date, since you got rid of the "eyes on" and "Now or never".
Douglas Morgan
Did the Eagles protest that they stink and should be given a few extra points?
Yeah Frank, I've always wondered why the NBA team in Pittsburgh wore black and yellow.
EW
What the hell is a Staley?
Didn't the LA Kings change their colors to look like the Raiders, when they were in LA. I don't know why the Dodgers, Lakers, and Rams didn't follow suit.
The penguins colors used to be Blue and White, but they changed them to Black and Yellow when the Pirates and Steelers were good c. 1980. They thought it would be cute.
The Kings will tell you a load of bullshit but they changed their colors because black jerseys were becoming all the rage with the LA
gang element and were selling like Johnny cakes. So instead of trying to teach the kids about the game they thought it would be better to just sell them shirts. And that's the truth. Now just about every team in sports has a black version of their jersey.
EW
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